Catag94 said:

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Study this info and offer a real response.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

It started there
They have the highest population
They have much more close contact than the US
They represent almost half the total cases
They now have slightly less than 9,000 Active cases
Of the closed cases, 4% resulted in deaths at a total of 3,226
If 4% of their current active cases result in death, the will cap at fewer than 4,000

So, are the panic and the resulting economic destruction justified is one of my my questions?

Another is, what specifically caused the rapid decrease of know new cases rate in China starting on or around Feb 12th. Was it that their knowledge and identification of cases finally caught up to the reality? Was it containment/spread control efforts enforced? When did China's containment efforts begin?

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One. It's probably warranted as we do not know long term effects on a person who contracts this.

China curtailed theirs by locking everyone in their homes and isolated those who had it until they died or were better. Many died. Their death numbers aren't real. Most of those who died they claimed due to pneumonia not the virus.

Buck Compton said:

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China just banned the WSJ, WaPo, and NYT journalists from being in their country, so I'd take their statistics with a big grain of salt.

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I would allow the WaPo or NYT journalist in either and don't trust them, but I get your point. China is working with the WHO (one would only hope honestly).

Hey OP- about 4 posters pointed out how China stopped it. Dont just pass over that.

Not to mention problems trusting China.

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So, are the panic and the resulting economic destruction justified is one of my my questions?

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China limited their numbers to what they did BECAUSE they locked everything down and disrupted their economy. Their manufacturing output is 20% below what it was YTD last year. Their exports are down 9% and their imports are down 4%.

You can't point to countries like China and SK to illustrate how small the problem is without recognizing that the problem was limited due to the strong actions those countries took -- actions that you are complaining about us doing in the US.

Nah

HotardAg07 said:

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Quote:

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So, are the panic and the resulting economic destruction justified is one of my my questions?

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China limited their numbers to what they did BECAUSE they locked everything down and disrupted their economy. Their manufacturing output is 20% below what it was YTD last year. Their exports are down 9% and their imports are down 4%.

You can't point to countries like China and SK to illustrate how small the problem is without recognizing that the problem was limited due to the strong actions those countries took -- actions that you are complaining about us doing in the US.

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Not complaining, but rather questioning. Sure, you play the "what if" game all day to no end, but the closed case numbers (if trustworthy) May not sufficiently justify the actions taken.

Thomas Ford 91 said:

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55 days ago China forced a in-home lockdown on a portion of their population roughly the same as Texas. Expected to continue for another 45 days.

Complete long-term city lockdown works.

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That's very much TBD still.

Did it work in China to stop the situation where healthcare resources were being overwhelmed leading to an increase in mortality? Answer seems to be yes.

We don't yet know what the longterm impacts of those draconian quarantine measures will be.

- Did it prevent enough people from catching it that it makes them more vulnerable to a subsequent wave due to lack of herd immunity?

- what are the impacts on people of those measures? Reports of starvation and widespread animal deaths due to disinfecting measures.

The ideally managed community (and this is very much a community thing, not a national thing) would look much more aggressive than China on the front end, where China was either negligent or intentionally neglectful in its response, and much less aggressive on the back end, where China welded people in their apartment buildings and doused everything with chemicals.

It would be interesting to know if the 300-350/avg deaths per day in Italy are from 1 region or scattered all over the country. Do they release this data?

Their numbers may or may not be real, but what they're likely doing to their population is probably very bad.

Guess we are really going to have to take China at their word now since they are kicking out all western journalists.

Super honor code and everything.

Its almost as if you have never read the news on what they did to control the virus.

tamuwx said:

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Its almost as if you have never read the news on what they did to control the virus.

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No. I read the news. I asked when they started this measures. I believe the answer tot hat was somewhere around January 20th or later. So, these numbers actually support the measures if they are accurate perhaps.

But, the closed case numbers (again, if accurate) indicate its nowhere nearly as serious as one might otherwise think following the info my media. This is especially true when you factor in the death risk based on age. For more, see the following link:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

China does offer the largest sample size so, in theory, their data (if trustworthy) Should be more dependable.

From the article just released by Fox News regarding Australian scientist able to map immune response to the novel Coronavirus causing Covid-19:

"We showed that even though COVID-19 is caused by a new virus, in an otherwise healthy person, a robust immune response across different cell types was associated with clinical recovery, similar to what we see in influenza," said Kedzierska, who is also a laboratory head at the Doherty Institute.
"This is an incredible step forward in understanding what drives recovery of COVID-19," Kedzierska added. "People can use our methods to understand the immune responses in larger COVID-19 cohorts, and also understand what's lacking in those who have fatal outcomes."

This is supported by the risk of death statistics found in the link in my previous post.

They haven't stopped anything.

Finn said:

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It would be interesting to know if the 300-350/avg deaths per day in Italy are from 1 region or scattered all over the country. Do they release this data?

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They shut down the whole country. That speaks volumes.

OaklandAg06 said:

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So it is a virus with a 4% mortality rate and a 15-20% hospitalization rate that is highly contagious that required hyper aggressive containment measures to defeat.

What other conclusions should we draw from this?

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More like 8% CFR.

AG 2000' said:

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OaklandAg06 said:

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So it is a virus with a 4% mortality rate and a 15-20% hospitalization rate that is highly contagious that required hyper aggressive containment measures to defeat.

What other conclusions should we draw from this?

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More like 8% CFR.

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The CFR estimation is one method. Using the closed cases method is another. In the case of China, these offer two fairly different fatality rates. If closed case numbers reported to WHO by China can be trusted (big If) this is a better calculation, especially given they only report roughly 9000 active cases.

There were multiple reports that China had some crematoriums going 24/7.

This is a site shared by our good doctor Reveille. This updates regularly so just keep refreshing. But according to this and at the time I am posting, the worldwide death rate around 4%. (number of deaths per cases) The US death rate continues to drop and is well below 2% at this time.

There are other very interesting links in this as well. Countries with much older median age populations are seeing higher death rates. Not to mention the health care systems vary greatly from country to country too as that will have a factor as well. Interesting information here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

A great website indeed. I will say the Italian numbers are by far the most concerning, and would, IMHO certainly warranty what they are doing. However, over all, IMHO I am not convinced it is warranted.