https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Apparenly this study has had some influence in the decision making as of late.
Basically, the top line analysis is: In a "do nothing" scenario, 80% of Americans would get the disease and 2.2MM Americans would die. They study the different suppression methods, which have varying degrees of effectiveness. I'm not a scientist, so I won't pretend to understand the analysis, but it's making the rounds so I figured I'd share here.
Apparenly this study has had some influence in the decision making as of late.
Basically, the top line analysis is: In a "do nothing" scenario, 80% of Americans would get the disease and 2.2MM Americans would die. They study the different suppression methods, which have varying degrees of effectiveness. I'm not a scientist, so I won't pretend to understand the analysis, but it's making the rounds so I figured I'd share here.
Shaun Shaikh '07