Very close proximity to Italy, Spain, etc. Dense population. They are not practicing social distancing anywhere near the degree we are, yet they had only 643 new reported cases and a total of 3,300.

Aggie95 said:

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Very close proximity to Italy, Spain, etc. Dense population. They are not practicing social distancing anywhere near the degree we are, yet they had only 643 new reported cases and a total of 3,300.

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The virus takes a week in a lot of cases before showing symptoms. There's going to be a lag time between actual spread and evidence of spread. Let's see where they are early next week. Hopefully not having a lot of cases, but doubtful.

they are setting case and death records daily. Situation will get worse before it gets better.

Aggie95 said:

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Very close proximity to Italy, Spain, etc. Dense population. They are not practicing social distancing anywhere near the degree we are, yet they had only 643 new reported cases and a total of 3,300.

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I don't think a 24% increase is too good.

We have had a massive lag in testing that is just now beginning to show up in our #s.

We gave the virus a good 5 week head start.

They are three or four days behind the US, which means they are about two weeks behind Italy. They will likely have about 800 new cases reported tomorrow and close to 1,000 the next day.

Here is the % increase today with total cases and # of new cases today. The United States # will rise but I think most of the others are done for the day.


87.96% Turkey 359 168
65.02% Luxembourg 335 132
61.38% Peru 234 89
56.35% Israel 677 244
54.76% Ecuador 260 92
52.19% Ireland 557 191
47.88% Pakistan 454 147
43.70% Chile 342 104
43.53% USA 13,289 4030

some of that makes sense, but hard to figure why they would be a week or so behind us. They are closer to the epicenter than we are. I can see lack of testing being a huge cause for artificially low numbers.

Marauder Blue 6 said:

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The English Channel

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Fish Chips and lots of heavy beer must kill the virus ?

Isn't the total UK population well below 100mm. That alone would make a comparison of raw cases to a country with 330MM a bit skewed.

PJYoung said:

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Here is the % increase today with total cases and # of new cases today. The United States # will rise but I think most of the others are done for the day.


87.96% Turkey 359 168
65.02% Luxembourg 335 132
61.38% Peru 234 89
56.35% Israel 677 244
54.76% Ecuador 260 92
52.19% Ireland 557 191
47.88% Pakistan 454 147
43.70% Chile 342 104
43.53% USA 13,289 4030

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Curious why you think this?

Germany's numbers indicate a much lower death rate than most. Interesting, I think, but I also suspect its just due to being too early for them. They and the USA have very few on the "Recovered" list relative to the total cases list. Nonetheless, with a couple thousand more cases, Germany has 1/3 the number of deaths the USA now has.

RM1993 said:

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Isn't the total UK population well below 100mm. That alone would make a comparison of raw cases to a country with 330MM a bit skewed.

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That's why I don't like these people using raw numbers and then saying we are just like Italy. It's still going to be a problem, but we are likely way behind Italy.

They aren't updating because it's 2AM over there?

Catag94 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Here is the % increase today with total cases and # of new cases today. The United States # will rise but I think most of the others are done for the day.


87.96% Turkey 359 168
65.02% Luxembourg 335 132
61.38% Peru 234 89
56.35% Israel 677 244
54.76% Ecuador 260 92
52.19% Ireland 557 191
47.88% Pakistan 454 147
43.70% Chile 342 104
43.53% USA 13,289 4030

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Curious why you think this?

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Worldometer shuts down the day at around 7pm our time.

Most of those countries have already reported their total for the 19th because of the difference in time zones.

I've been on that site waaaay too much the past 5 or 6 weeks so I've gotten familiar with a lot of different reporting times for the different countries.

Catag94 said:

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Germany's numbers indicate a much lower death rate than most. Interesting, I think, but I also suspect its just due to being too early for them. They and the USA have very few on the "Recovered" list relative to the total cases list. Nonetheless, with a couple thousand more cases, Germany has 1/3 the number of deaths the USA now has.

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It's possible some of it is random - our first reported cluster was in an elderly population - Italy's entire country is much older than most. Maybe Germany's first clusters skewed younger - I don't know.

I view all of the data of raw cases as pretty useless. I think the data should be transformed into a case/pop type format and the growth rate looked at as a percentage from day to day.

Testing quantities would be best analyzed by a positive to negative ratio to account for countries testing symptoms vs everyone.

If the testing strategy remains uniform in a country and the ratio shifts you would have an indication of growth or decrease in disease presence.

They are not testing actively
Neither is Mexico

I saw on the national news that the California Governor expects to have 25 million cases in 8 weeks.

How likely is that? The entire world has 0.25 million confirmed cases thus far.

Ag Defense Rules said:

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I saw on the national news that the California Governor expects to have 25 million cases in 8 weeks.

How likely is that? The entire world has 0.25 million confirmed cases thus far.

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Worldwide, or US only? A 10x worldwide would be a significant slowing.

Just apply the rule of 72 loosely. A ~40% daily growth rate means a doubling every 2 days. 250K cases would become 25 million in about 12 days.

When does everyone think our peak day of the calendar will be?

PJYoung said:

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Catag94 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Here is the % increase today with total cases and # of new cases today. The United States # will rise but I think most of the others are done for the day.




87.96% Turkey 359 168
65.02% Luxembourg 335 132
61.38% Peru 234 89
56.35% Israel 677 244
54.76% Ecuador 260 92
52.19% Ireland 557 191
47.88% Pakistan 454 147
43.70% Chile 342 104
43.53% USA 13,289 4030

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Curious why you think this?

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Worldometer shuts down the day at around 7pm our time.

Most of those countries have already reported their total for the 19th because of the difference in time zones.

I've been on that site waaaay too much the past 5 or 6 weeks so I've gotten familiar with a lot of different reporting times for the different countries.

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I am like you in that I have been in the site way too much. But, I was think (perhaps in error) that anything past 00:00 Zulu time was considered the next day. In other words, their days like 19th are all set to GMT. This fits the UK perfectly if course, and the majority of Europe is ahead of that, but by only an hour. Is it your understanding that even our daily numbers are started over at 00:00GMT?

Ag Defense Rules said:

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I saw on the national news that the California Governor expects to have 25 million cases in 8 weeks.

How likely is that? The entire world has 0.25 million confirmed cases thus far.

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The current exponential growth trend in the US has seen our cases multiply by 10 every 8 day. Therefore, if that were to continue at the same rate, we would have 100,000 cases March 27, 1,000,000 cases April 5, 10,000,000 cases April 13th, 100,000,000 casss April 21st.

Obviously it won't happen exactly like that. As we get more infected, we start to benefit from some herd immunity. Plus, the increased social distancing and testing will have a strong neutering effect on the growth rate. Hopefully warmer weather also dulls the growth rate as well.

That being said, we still have no vaccine or cure and the virus is very contagious and has a long incubation period so it could be something we see come in waves until we do have some kind of no vaccine for the masses. I put my faith in our collective ingenuity and spirit that we won't see the worst case millions dead. However, maybe some people need to hear the worst case so they understand what we are up against and why it's important to follow CDC guidelines.

Responding to my post above, the California Governor expects 25 million in 8 weeks in California alone. Not the US or world - just in California.

Ag Defense Rules said:

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Responding to my post above, the California Governor expects 25 million in 8 weeks in California alone. Not the US or world - just in California.

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The California governor has got to be angling for something. There is no justification for predicting this. I'm not sure 25 million could be projected for the world just now.

Aggie95 said:

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Very close proximity to Italy, Spain, etc. Dense population. They are not practicing social distancing anywhere near the degree we are, yet they had only 643 new reported cases and a total of 3,300.

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They're on the same trajectory as a lot of other countries.

hatchback said:

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Aggie95 said:

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Very close proximity to Italy, Spain, etc. Dense population. They are not practicing social distancing anywhere near the degree we are, yet they had only 643 new reported cases and a total of 3,300.

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They're on the same trajectory as a lot of other countries.

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What exactly is the purpose of making graphs where the distance visually between 100 and 200 is the same as between 5000 and 10000? Not understanding that.

Log scale

Ratios are unchanged but scale makes seeing the plots easier

Also helps track change in exponential growth and the second derivative

One of the resident math nerds can explain it bette than me

Without intervention? Likely.

This is from an article published in Nature.

I think everyone should read these sentences a few times.

Quote:

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For a completely novel pathogen, especially one with a high (say, >2) basic reproductive number (the expected number of secondary cases generated by a primary case in a completely susceptible population) relative to other recently emergent and seasonal directly transmissible respiratory pathogens, assuming homogeneous mixing and mass action dynamics, the majority of the population will be infected eventually unless drastic public health interventions are applied over prolonged periods and/or vaccines become available sufficiently quickly.

Even under more realistic assumptions about mixing informed by observed clustering of infections within households and the increasingly apparent role of superspreading events (for example, the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Chinese prisons and the church in Daegu, South Korea) at least one-quarter to one-half of the population will very likely become infected, absent drastic control measures or a vaccine. Therefore, the number of severe outcomes or deaths in the population is most strongly dependent on how ill an infected person is likely to become, and this question should be the focus of attention.

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