I think the peak will be in May or June.

These are logarithmic graphs. If your used to looking at linear graphs, these look better than you expect. However, the comparisons can still be made.

Disease outbreaks follow exponential functions because the number of people who get it in a given day is a function of how many people who have it.

Exponential functions are better viewed on log scales because they are straight lines on a log scale so it's easier to view. On a linear scale it would be hard to tell what's happening in the low value areas since the high end of the scale gets so high

Catag94 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Catag94 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Here is the % increase today with total cases and # of new cases today. The United States # will rise but I think most of the others are done for the day.




87.96% Turkey 359 168
65.02% Luxembourg 335 132
61.38% Peru 234 89
56.35% Israel 677 244
54.76% Ecuador 260 92
52.19% Ireland 557 191
47.88% Pakistan 454 147
43.70% Chile 342 104
43.53% USA 13,289 4030

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Curious why you think this?

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Worldometer shuts down the day at around 7pm our time.

Most of those countries have already reported their total for the 19th because of the difference in time zones.

I've been on that site waaaay too much the past 5 or 6 weeks so I've gotten familiar with a lot of different reporting times for the different countries.

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I am like you in that I have been in the site way too much. But, I was think (perhaps in error) that anything past 00:00 Zulu time was considered the next day. In other words, their days like 19th are all set to GMT. This fits the UK perfectly if course, and the majority of Europe is ahead of that, but by only an hour. Is it your understanding that even our daily numbers are started over at 00:00GMT?

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They seem to add a tiny bit after 7pm central.

4133 said:

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Log scale

Ratios are unchanged but scale makes seeing the plots easier

Also helps track change in exponential growth and the second derivative

One of the resident math nerds can explain it bette than me

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If you notice the straight line for 33% increase daily then the log scale will visually help you understand if you are improving or worsening on the exponential scale. S Korea is a nice example of this, without the log scale their line would still look a lot like other countries, just shooting upwards, however, the log scale actually differentiates their results visually versus other countries.

Shares of FedEx are up sharply over the last couple of days as they report business getting back on line dramatically in China. Things are turning around over there whether you believe the Chinese govt or no. I'll take FedEx's word as pretty reliable.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/F56258FA-6945-11EA-9113-79BAEFEE335A

I'm more interested in how the heck India has basically nothing? I would expect rampant spread and death in a country right next to China, with huge populations and densities in large cities. Are they just behind the curve at the moment? Or is something else going on?

PJYoung said:

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Catag94 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Catag94 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Here is the % increase today with total cases and # of new cases today. The United States # will rise but I think most of the others are done for the day.




87.96% Turkey 359 168
65.02% Luxembourg 335 132
61.38% Peru 234 89
56.35% Israel 677 244
54.76% Ecuador 260 92
52.19% Ireland 557 191
47.88% Pakistan 454 147
43.70% Chile 342 104
43.53% USA 13,289 4030

---

Curious why you think this?

---

Worldometer shuts down the day at around 7pm our time.

Most of those countries have already reported their total for the 19th because of the difference in time zones.

I've been on that site waaaay too much the past 5 or 6 weeks so I've gotten familiar with a lot of different reporting times for the different countries.

---

I am like you in that I have been in the site way too much. But, I was think (perhaps in error) that anything past 00:00 Zulu time was considered the next day. In other words, their days like 19th are all set to GMT. This fits the UK perfectly if course, and the majority of Europe is ahead of that, but by only an hour. Is it your understanding that even our daily numbers are started over at 00:00GMT?

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They seem to add a tiny bit after 7pm central.

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Yes but the daily additions started over as the new day started at 00:00GMT. For a while, many of the "new" columns will be blank until the numbers from those country are reported. Either way, on the website, all the numbers shows for the day are for the same 24 hrs period I believe.