Windy City Ag said:

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Still awful and mind bending but we have seen the first day over day decline in new cases and deaths. One day does not make a trend but hopefully this is the beginning of a recovery in the hardest hit part of the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

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Great
Hope New York can get theirs under control
About 28% (9600/34000) of all US cases in NYC alone.
https://abc7ny.com/health/nyc-is-now-the-epicenter-of-coronavirus-pandemic/6021383/

74Ag1 said:

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Windy City Ag said:

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Still awful and mind bending but we have seen the first day over day decline in new cases and deaths. One day does not make a trend but hopefully this is the beginning of a recovery in the hardest hit part of the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

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Great
Hope New York can get theirs under control
About 28% (9600/34000) of all US cases in NYC alone.
https://abc7ny.com/health/nyc-is-now-the-epicenter-of-coronavirus-pandemic/6021383/

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This is showing NY is almost half of the US cases...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Judging purely by the graphs on Worldometer's confirmed cases and deaths, it would seem they hit their inflection point on March 20 at 4,000 deaths and 47,000 cases. Therefore, you could expect they'll begin to flatten out at around 8,000 deaths and 94,000 confirmed cases, if it follows a typical logistic curve.

Seems noteworthy that the inflection point is about 10-14 days after they went to a lockdown, similar to what "allegedly" occurred in China.

Spain is coming up next. NY is in the on deck circle.

74Ag1 said:

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Windy City Ag said:

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Still awful and mind bending but we have seen the first day over day decline in new cases and deaths. One day does not make a trend but hopefully this is the beginning of a recovery in the hardest hit part of the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

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Great
Hope New York can get theirs under control
About 28% (9600/34000) of all US cases in NYC alone.
https://abc7ny.com/health/nyc-is-now-the-epicenter-of-coronavirus-pandemic/6021383/

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It's likely NY has done the most extensive testing. Result being they have a lot of positives. Yes, population density and other factors play into this, but I'd expect to see NY's % drop as testing expands elsewhere.

All of the constant back and forth I see on this comes down to testing.....death rate is overstated due to not knowing how many are truly infected.......deaths rate is right because the dead aren't getting tested either, etc.

The story in NY is going to be the story in every major metropolitan area to some degree. Hopefully, treatments, warm weather and the grace of god and a ton of effort on a vaccine we can shorten this whole ordeal.

bangobango said:

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74Ag1 said:

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Windy City Ag said:

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Still awful and mind bending but we have seen the first day over day decline in new cases and deaths. One day does not make a trend but hopefully this is the beginning of a recovery in the hardest hit part of the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

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Great
Hope New York can get theirs under control
About 28% (9600/34000) of all US cases in NYC alone.
https://abc7ny.com/health/nyc-is-now-the-epicenter-of-coronavirus-pandemic/6021383/

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They're also testing a lot more. They've done like six times more tests than Texas has at this point.

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Just to make an apples-to-apples comparison assuming NY state has 6x more tests than Texas:

-NY: 20,875 = 20,875
-TX: 719 x 6 = 4,314

-NY has 4.84 times as many cases than TX under this assumption (I know there are other variables).

Manhattan and the burrows are densely populated much more so than most places in the US. It's going to be hard for them to get through this. Just no way around it. The big cities in India could be ticking time bombs.

Windy City Ag said:

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Still awful and mind bending but we have seen the first day over day decline in new cases and deaths. One day does not make a trend but hopefully this is the beginning of a recovery in the hardest hit part of the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

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I see my Zicam care package finally made it over there.

proudaggie02 said:

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bangobango said:

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74Ag1 said:

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Windy City Ag said:

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Still awful and mind bending but we have seen the first day over day decline in new cases and deaths. One day does not make a trend but hopefully this is the beginning of a recovery in the hardest hit part of the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

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Great
Hope New York can get theirs under control
About 28% (9600/34000) of all US cases in NYC alone.
https://abc7ny.com/health/nyc-is-now-the-epicenter-of-coronavirus-pandemic/6021383/

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They're also testing a lot more. They've done like six times more tests than Texas has at this point.

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Just to make an apples-to-apples comparison assuming NY state has 6x more tests than Texas:

-NY: 20,875 = 20,875
-TX: 719 x 6 = 4,314

-NY has 4.84 times as many cases than TX under this assumption (I know there are other variables).

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NY was also ahead of TX in the onset of exposure....If in the next week TX suddenly matches NY's 6X testing regimen and we have had more time since first exposure then I would expect our cases to shoot up substantially. Hopefully, open spaces and warmer weather mean this isn't the case.

Italy just reported numbers: +5,249 cases, +743 deaths.

New cases bounced up about 10%, but still lower than 2 days ago. Deaths are up over 20% from yesterday which is bad. Not sure if the previous two days around 600ish deaths were just random variance or what.

Lower new cases is still encouraging, and the bounce upwards might be the effects of people fleeing the northern regions. We'll know more by Thursday since tomorrow makes the 2 week mark from the whole country going on lockdown IIRC.

Mordred said:

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Italy just reported numbers: +5,249 cases, +743 deaths.

New cases bounced up about 10%, but still lower than 2 days ago. Deaths are up over 20% from yesterday which is bad. Not sure if the previous two days around 600ish deaths were just random variance or what.

Lower new cases is still encouraging, and the bounce upwards might be the effects of people fleeing the northern regions. We'll know more by Thursday since tomorrow makes the 2 week mark from the whole country going on lockdown IIRC.

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That's probably a function of the lag between the new cases and deaths.

Deaths should lag new cases. It does seem like things might finally be flattening out for Italy.

Tbs2003 said:

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Mordred said:

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Italy just reported numbers: +5,249 cases, +743 deaths.

New cases bounced up about 10%, but still lower than 2 days ago. Deaths are up over 20% from yesterday which is bad. Not sure if the previous two days around 600ish deaths were just random variance or what.

Lower new cases is still encouraging, and the bounce upwards might be the effects of people fleeing the northern regions. We'll know more by Thursday since tomorrow makes the 2 week mark from the whole country going on lockdown IIRC.

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That's probably a function of the lag between the new cases and deaths.

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You're correct.

This graph does not yet contain today's data.



It's still not clear if Italy is at the peak, hopefully in the coming days we will see it peak and start to lower.

It definitely seems to be transitioning from a peroid of R0 >1 to R0 = 1 to hopefully R0 <1 and we'll see the decay in cases. It's a hopeful sign.

I guess my question is, if it's going down and the curve is flattening, how to you keep it flat? People have to still get out and the economy has to recover. It's so confusing to me how to find this balance.

Italy is almost at the two week mark of their nationwide shutdown. We should hopefully see a decline in new cases in the next couple days.

SkiMo said:

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I guess my question is, if it's going down and the curve is flattening, how to you keep it flat? People have to still get out and the economy has to recover. It's so confusing to me how to find this balance.

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If we look to China and SK, they lifted the restrictions very methodically, kept testing high and used contact tracing to track down any potential people exposed. I assume they have a very high utilization of masks as well.

HotardAg07 said:

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SkiMo said:

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I guess my question is, if it's going down and the curve is flattening, how to you keep it flat? People have to still get out and the economy has to recover. It's so confusing to me how to find this balance.

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If we look to China and SK, they lifted the restrictions very methodically, kept testing high and used contact tracing to track down any potential people exposed. I assume they have a very high utilization of masks as well.

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It seems it's going to have to be a combination of many things here in the US. More data, more equipment, more testing, etc. All while still being extremely cautious about washing hands, etc. It's going to be very interesting.

The last six years Italy has had the highest mortality rate since WW2. This may end up being a slight increase for them. May not.

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/abstract

Damn, 919 more deaths in last 24 hours for Italy. They are still getting hammered by this thing over there.

Italy had 197 deaths 3 weeks ago today. They'll cross 10,000 before midnight.

I hope we have better control and more resources, but I don't think we do.

I think it's safe to say Italy has flattened the curve out a bit. 4050 new cases reported today, not show on the graph but it's definitely not exponential growth anymore.



Below is the log scale of total cases. Appears to be headed much flatter.