Death Rate by Age (Italy, Spain, China, SK)

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HotardAg07
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9:04a, 3/24/20
AG

[source: reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful]

With the error bars, it seems that the death rates are statistically the same across all locales other than Italy on the high end, probably due to them having a strained health care system in the Lombardy region.

It elevates my hypothesis that, until hospitals become overwhelmed, calculated death rates will have more to do with age distribution of the sick than with how well the country is handling the virus. But, also that once a hospital system can be over taxed, those death rates can increase above the baseline to affect people who would have been otherwise saved.
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dragmagpuff
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9:07a, 3/24/20
AG
A very interesting test data for this is comparing the China death rates in Wuhan to the rest of their country.

Non-Wuhan china is more in line with South Korea. Wuhan was overwhelmed (thus the massive temporary hospitals).

(I know China's data is suspect, but it's still interesting)
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buda91
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9:07a, 3/24/20
AG
That is what? Percentage of fatalities out of those who tested positive, or were otherwise "officially" diagnosed? So the denominator may be even higher, making the truish fatality rate even lower?
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Not a Bot
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9:09a, 3/24/20
AG
I'm curious to see Italy's data on all other medical conditions as well. I think it would show a huge increase in mortality across the board.
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9:12a, 3/24/20
AvidAggie
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In reply to [removed post] • 9:21a, 3/24/20
AG
The people in power do tend to fall in the higher risk categories. Just an observation
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Old Buffalo
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In reply to buda91 • 9:29a, 3/24/20
AG
buda91 said:
That is what? Percentage of fatalities out of those who tested positive, or were otherwise "officially" diagnosed? So the denominator may be even higher, making the truish fatality rate even lower?
It also doesn't help the numerator when cases like this are included...


https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/2nd-coronavirus-patient-dies-in-lehigh-valley-he-was-61-and-from-warren-county.html

Quote:
He said the primary cause of the man's death was a head injury from a fall at home, but that the virus was listed as a contributing factor to his death.
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CrackerJackAg
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9:30a, 3/24/20
AG
Honestly, this thing just has to be blown wide open. Those who are the highest risk category need to stay home.

I think somebody earlier touched on it, the people who are in power are the ones who are most likely affected by this and they are running scared.

Don't let anybody guilt you about "greatest generation". You would pretty much have to be damn near a hundred years old 2 have participated significantly in world war II. This is baby boomer fear. Plain and simple.

The greatest generation would not have allowed such a loss of freedom and a destruction of this country even at a three and a half percent death rate to their generation.
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Win At Life
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In reply to [removed post] • 9:31a, 3/24/20
AG
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy
You want to see 20 dead people carried out of every 200-man nursing home in the next few weeks? BTW, there are about 15,000 nursing homes in this country.
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HotardAg07
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In reply to Old Buffalo • 9:32a, 3/24/20
AG
Old Buffalo said:
buda91 said:
That is what? Percentage of fatalities out of those who tested positive, or were otherwise "officially" diagnosed? So the denominator may be even higher, making the truish fatality rate even lower?
It also doesn't help the numerator when cases like this are included...


https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/2nd-coronavirus-patient-dies-in-lehigh-valley-he-was-61-and-from-warren-county.html

Quote:
He said the primary cause of the man's death was a head injury from a fall at home, but that the virus was listed as a contributing factor to his death.

I believe there are also examples of CV not being listed as the cause of death if there was a severe comorbidity in some countries such as China.
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Gigs123
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In reply to [removed post] • 9:40a, 3/24/20
We've discussed this a thousand times. It isn't the fatality rate, it is the hospitalization rate that is detrimental which can overwhelm the healthcare system which is what we have seen in places such as Italy.
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Nagler
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In reply to Win At Life • 9:45a, 3/24/20
AG
Win At Life said:
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy
You want to see 20 dead people carried out of every 200-man nursing home in the next few weeks? BTW, there are about 15,000 nursing homes in this country.

Why would that be necessary? As stated above, high risk should quarantine themselves. Keep nursing homes quarantined. The government can help, establish a task force to deliver food and necessities. High risk, stay home. Every one else, social distance or whatever you want to call it.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Nagler • 10:43a, 3/24/20
AG
Nagler said:
Win At Life said:
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy
You want to see 20 dead people carried out of every 200-man nursing home in the next few weeks? BTW, there are about 15,000 nursing homes in this country.

Why would that be necessary? As stated above, high risk should quarantine themselves. Keep nursing homes quarantined. The government can help, establish a task force to deliver food and necessities. High risk, stay home. Every one else, social distance or whatever you want to call it.
How exactly does that work? Talk me thru this. How do you quarantine a nursing home or, say all people over 70? There are 15,000 nursing homes. Are you creating 15,000 task forces?

And about these task forces, will they include doctors and nurses? How about people that perform the other 500 or so odd jobs in the nursing home. And are we sending them in wearing full containment suits? Or do we quarantine the task forces? And what about the other millions of Americans that are highly vulnerable but not in nursing homes? Is this done by some mobile hot zone strike force?

Also, what happens to you when you have appendicitis but can't get any help at the hospital? Do we count you as a statistic?

And while all of this is going on what is happening to the economy? Think the Dow hits 30k?

I don’t say this in a braggedocious way. But it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.

-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025



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John Francis Donaghy
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In reply to agsalaska • 10:53a, 3/24/20
agsalaska said:
Nagler said:
Win At Life said:
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy
You want to see 20 dead people carried out of every 200-man nursing home in the next few weeks? BTW, there are about 15,000 nursing homes in this country.

Why would that be necessary? As stated above, high risk should quarantine themselves. Keep nursing homes quarantined. The government can help, establish a task force to deliver food and necessities. High risk, stay home. Every one else, social distance or whatever you want to call it.
How exactly does that work? Talk me thru this. How do you quarantine a nursing home or, say all people over 70? There are 15,000 nursing homes. Are you creating 15,000 task forces?

And about these task forces, will they include doctors and nurses? How about people that perform the other 500 or so odd jobs in the nursing home. And are we sending them in wearing full containment suits? Or do we quarantine the task forces? And what about the other millions of Americans that are highly vulnerable but not in nursing homes? Is this done by some mobile hot zone strike force?

Also, what happens to you when you have appendicitis but can't get any help at the hospital? Do we count you as a statistic?

And while all of this is going on what is happening to the economy? Think the Dow hits 30k?



Exactly. Nursing homes cannot operate in a vacuum. There are too many people in and out every day. Cooks, cleaning staff, caregivers, physical therapists, nurses, etc. As long as this thing exists in society, it will get into nursing homes, and we already know what the results will be.
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agsalaska
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In reply to [removed post] • 10:56a, 3/24/20
AG
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy


So tell me. What would our economy look like if we let it run unchecked?
I don’t say this in a braggedocious way. But it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.

-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025



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Nagler
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In reply to agsalaska • 11:10a, 3/24/20
AG
agsalaska said:
Nagler said:
Win At Life said:
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy
You want to see 20 dead people carried out of every 200-man nursing home in the next few weeks? BTW, there are about 15,000 nursing homes in this country.

Why would that be necessary? As stated above, high risk should quarantine themselves. Keep nursing homes quarantined. The government can help, establish a task force to deliver food and necessities. High risk, stay home. Every one else, social distance or whatever you want to call it.
How exactly does that work? Talk me thru this. How do you quarantine a nursing home or, say all people over 70? There are 15,000 nursing homes. Are you creating 15,000 task forces?

And about these task forces, will they include doctors and nurses? How about people that perform the other 500 or so odd jobs in the nursing home. And are we sending them in wearing full containment suits? Or do we quarantine the task forces? And what about the other millions of Americans that are highly vulnerable but not in nursing homes? Is this done by some mobile hot zone strike force?

Also, what happens to you when you have appendicitis but can't get any help at the hospital? Do we count you as a statistic?

And while all of this is going on what is happening to the economy? Think the Dow hits 30k?


If that's what it takes, then absolutely. Each step we take we're getting closer and closer to quarantining our nation as a whole. Italy and Spain have done it, it would be simpler to quarantine 15,000 nursing homes than every house in the country.

I'm sure you could do something at the county level with responsibilities to take care of the quarantined. It won't be cheap but neither is shutting down the country for the foreseeable future.

If you are limiting the number of high risk people exposed it should limit the amount of hospitalizations. I also think you keep social distancing up and precautions going but people are still going to work.

My biggest question in all of this is where does it end? How long are you going to have people holed up? 1 month, 6 months, 1 year? The virus is still going to be out there. Are we just waiting for a cure/ vaccine? I understand they don't want to overload the hospital system but at a certain point in time we're either going to have to continue on or just accept that this is the new normal and we don't have contact with anyone outside of your immediate family ever again and that's where my previous statement comes in. High risk isolate, everyone else take precautions but continue on.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Nagler • 11:13a, 3/24/20
AG
I would love to give a thoughtful response to your reply but my 8 year old has my computer for his online learning.

I don’t say this in a braggedocious way. But it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.

-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025



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TXAggie2011
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11:20a, 3/24/20
AG
That's an interesting graph that is worth watching as the days go by.

I would just say that even Italy's numbers reflect lock downs that began over a month ago. Police started blockading certain locations on February 21. Even their numbers are not the high end of what the virus is capable of.

Other than that, can y'all take the argument somewhere else?
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agsalaska
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In reply to Nagler • 11:30a, 3/24/20
AG
Nagler said:
agsalaska said:
Nagler said:
Win At Life said:
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy
You want to see 20 dead people carried out of every 200-man nursing home in the next few weeks? BTW, there are about 15,000 nursing homes in this country.

Why would that be necessary? As stated above, high risk should quarantine themselves. Keep nursing homes quarantined. The government can help, establish a task force to deliver food and necessities. High risk, stay home. Every one else, social distance or whatever you want to call it.
How exactly does that work? Talk me thru this. How do you quarantine a nursing home or, say all people over 70? There are 15,000 nursing homes. Are you creating 15,000 task forces?

And about these task forces, will they include doctors and nurses? How about people that perform the other 500 or so odd jobs in the nursing home. And are we sending them in wearing full containment suits? Or do we quarantine the task forces? And what about the other millions of Americans that are highly vulnerable but not in nursing homes? Is this done by some mobile hot zone strike force?

Also, what happens to you when you have appendicitis but can't get any help at the hospital? Do we count you as a statistic?

And while all of this is going on what is happening to the economy? Think the Dow hits 30k?


If that's what it takes, then absolutely. Each step we take we're getting closer and closer to quarantining our nation as a whole. Italy and Spain have done it, it would be simpler to quarantine 15,000 nursing homes than every house in the country.

I'm sure you could do something at the county level with responsibilities to take care of the quarantined. It won't be cheap but neither is shutting down the country for the foreseeable future.

If you are limiting the number of high risk people exposed it should limit the amount of hospitalizations. I also think you keep social distancing up and precautions going but people are still going to work.

My biggest question in all of this is where does it end? How long are you going to have people holed up? 1 month, 6 months, 1 year? The virus is still going to be out there. Are we just waiting for a cure/ vaccine? I understand they don't want to overload the hospital system but at a certain point in time we're either going to have to continue on or just accept that this is the new normal and we don't have contact with anyone outside of your immediate family ever again and that's where my previous statement comes in. High risk isolate, everyone else take precautions but continue on.
To your first paragraph, I do not think it is feasible in any real capacity. You cannot quarantine anything not geographic. But I don't see any reason to argue that point.

To your last paragraph, I agree with you and wonder the exact same thing. How long can this go on? I give it 3 or 4 more weeks.There is no way we can do this for six months or a year, at least not like we are doing it right now.

The part that get me the most, and you didn't really say it, but it is this assumption that we are wrecking the economy. No. The virus is wrecking the economy. Since I disagree with your assertion that we could somehow isolate communities within communities within communities, I go off of CDC and other institution's projections of what an unchecked virus would do to the population. Those projections would be hugely detrimental to the economy as well. Which one is worse is anyone's guess, but assuming this way is worse is shortsighted.

I don’t say this in a braggedocious way. But it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.

-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025



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agsalaska
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 11:30a, 3/24/20
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
That's an interesting graph that is worth watching as the days go by.

I would just say that even Italy's numbers reflect lock downs that began over a month ago. Police started blockading certain locations on February 21. Even their numbers are not the high end of what the virus is capable of.

Other than that, can y'all take the argument somewhere else?
My apologies. I thought I was on the General board.
I don’t say this in a braggedocious way. But it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.

-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025



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AustinAg2K
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In reply to agsalaska • 11:31a, 3/24/20
agsalaska said:
Nagler said:
Win At Life said:
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy
You want to see 20 dead people carried out of every 200-man nursing home in the next few weeks? BTW, there are about 15,000 nursing homes in this country.

Why would that be necessary? As stated above, high risk should quarantine themselves. Keep nursing homes quarantined. The government can help, establish a task force to deliver food and necessities. High risk, stay home. Every one else, social distance or whatever you want to call it.
How exactly does that work? Talk me thru this. How do you quarantine a nursing home or, say all people over 70? There are 15,000 nursing homes. Are you creating 15,000 task forces?

And about these task forces, will they include doctors and nurses? How about people that perform the other 500 or so odd jobs in the nursing home. And are we sending them in wearing full containment suits? Or do we quarantine the task forces? And what about the other millions of Americans that are highly vulnerable but not in nursing homes? Is this done by some mobile hot zone strike force?

Also, what happens to you when you have appendicitis but can't get any help at the hospital? Do we count you as a statistic?

And while all of this is going on what is happening to the economy? Think the Dow hits 30k?

Why can't you leave it up to the nursing homes to police themselves? Each nursing home should be responsible for ensuring their staff is healthy (regular fever checks, testing, etc.). Money can be provided for the nursing homes to hire additional staff that is required.
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agsalaska
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In reply to AustinAg2K • 11:33a, 3/24/20
AG
AustinAg2K said:
agsalaska said:
Nagler said:
Win At Life said:
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy
You want to see 20 dead people carried out of every 200-man nursing home in the next few weeks? BTW, there are about 15,000 nursing homes in this country.

Why would that be necessary? As stated above, high risk should quarantine themselves. Keep nursing homes quarantined. The government can help, establish a task force to deliver food and necessities. High risk, stay home. Every one else, social distance or whatever you want to call it.
How exactly does that work? Talk me thru this. How do you quarantine a nursing home or, say all people over 70? There are 15,000 nursing homes. Are you creating 15,000 task forces?

And about these task forces, will they include doctors and nurses? How about people that perform the other 500 or so odd jobs in the nursing home. And are we sending them in wearing full containment suits? Or do we quarantine the task forces? And what about the other millions of Americans that are highly vulnerable but not in nursing homes? Is this done by some mobile hot zone strike force?

Also, what happens to you when you have appendicitis but can't get any help at the hospital? Do we count you as a statistic?

And while all of this is going on what is happening to the economy? Think the Dow hits 30k?

Why can't you leave it up to the nursing homes to police themselves? Each nursing home should be responsible for ensuring their staff is healthy (regular fever checks, testing, etc.). Money can be provided for the nursing homes to hire additional staff that is required.
The very short answer is we do not have enough tests to test all of our current cases. And as we know a good % of grown adults show no symptoms.
I don’t say this in a braggedocious way. But it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.

-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025



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Fitch
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12:02p, 3/24/20
AG
So some quick math using the age distributions in the chart at the top, the demographic breakdown of the American population and assuming a 60% infection rate (used in yesterdays press conference)...

(Age) - # Deaths
(0-9) - 0
(10-19) - 44,000
(20-29) - 34,000
(30-39) - 52,000
(40-49) - 85,000
(50-59) - 231,000
(60-69) - 696,000
(70-79) - 1,183,000
(80+) - 1,318,000

Total: 3,643,000 or 1.1% of American population
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John Francis Donaghy
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12:07p, 3/24/20
The reality is in order to make any sort of more targeted response, we need widespread rapid testing capabilities, which we do not have right now. It's impossible to have effective targeted response without the necessary information to know who is infectious. Take that up with the CDC if you like, but we currently have no realistic alternative to the blanket actions we're currently taking.
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plain_o_llama
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 12:13p, 3/24/20
Everyone agrees the denominator is higher by some factor. Somewhere between 2 and 10. We won't know without Serology tests to get a better sense of asymptomatic cases.

I assumed that the numerator, deaths, would be relatively straightforward to count if you wanted to. While there were plenty of stories about China under-reporting deaths I didn't expect problems in the West.

Yet, there is some evidence Italy is under-counting deaths.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/insight-uncounted-among-coronavirus-victims-deaths-sweep-through-italys-nursing-homes-2020


Gori said there had been 164 deaths in his town in the first two weeks of March this year, of which 31 were attributed to the coronavirus. That compares with 56 deaths over the same period last year.

Even adding the 31 coronavirus deaths to that total would leave 77 additional deaths, an increase that suggests the virus may have caused significantly more deaths than officially recorded.
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to Win At Life • 12:23p, 3/24/20
AG
Win At Life said:
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy
You want to see 20 dead people carried out of every 200-man nursing home in the next few weeks? BTW, there are about 15,000 nursing homes in this country.


My niece is a nurse at a nursing home. They have been on lockdown for a couple weeks. No one in or out of the facility other than staff. Strict protocols on PPE and behavior outside of the facility.
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TheAngelFlight
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12:31p, 3/24/20
Quote:
Everyone agrees the denominator is higher by some factor. Somewhere between 2 and 10. We won't know without Serology tests to get a better sense of asymptomatic cases.
Whatever the real number is, Italy still wouldn't be Corona Unchained, and even less so as the days go by.

Counting deaths is interesting, and why people have posted overall mortality rates a few times. In Italy, at least a few days ago, their mortality rates were up 80-100% in the north and 20% as a country.


Outside obvious issues, its difficult to say when a non-Covid-19 patient died "because of" Covid-19. Nor are doctors and hospitals necessarily going to capture that data.

And I'm sure those cases will get overlooked/forgotten by many.
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tmaggie50
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In reply to agsalaska • 12:39p, 3/24/20
AG
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agsalaska
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In reply to tmaggie50 • 12:47p, 3/24/20
AG
tmaggie50 said:
agsalaska said:
Nagler said:
Win At Life said:
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy
You want to see 20 dead people carried out of every 200-man nursing home in the next few weeks? BTW, there are about 15,000 nursing homes in this country.

Why would that be necessary? As stated above, high risk should quarantine themselves. Keep nursing homes quarantined. The government can help, establish a task force to deliver food and necessities. High risk, stay home. Every one else, social distance or whatever you want to call it.
How exactly does that work? Talk me thru this. How do you quarantine a nursing home or, say all people over 70? There are 15,000 nursing homes. Are you creating 15,000 task forces?

And about these task forces, will they include doctors and nurses? How about people that perform the other 500 or so odd jobs in the nursing home. And are we sending them in wearing full containment suits? Or do we quarantine the task forces? And what about the other millions of Americans that are highly vulnerable but not in nursing homes? Is this done by some mobile hot zone strike force?

Also, what happens to you when you have appendicitis but can't get any help at the hospital? Do we count you as a statistic?

And while all of this is going on what is happening to the economy? Think the Dow hits 30k?

Slow down and think for a second. Is it easier and less costly to shut down the entire world or to shut down an a certain sector of the population who has mobility constraints anyways? Most people do not think the economy will just magically be better if you quarantine a certain demographic, but it would CERTAINLY slow the collapse of the US and world economy as we know it.


In a perfect world I would 100% agree with you.

But I do not think you can quarantine subsets of populations, especially scattered. Thays not remotely feasible.
I don’t say this in a braggedocious way. But it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.

-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025



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AggieJ2002
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12:56p, 3/24/20
AG
I'm all for getting the economy going, but to think that just "getting back to work and normal life" is going to do it, I have to believe is flawed logic.

Without actually getting this under control (i.e. having accessible testing/antibodies testing, plentiful drugs to treat as best as we can, plentiful Doctors and hospital supplies), people are still not going to flood restaurants, movies, planes, etc and the economy is still taking a massive hit. With free movement, if Covid explodes and the health system is completely overrun (thinking Italy but worse because we wont be quarantining any more), there is going to be mass panic and maybe riots over who is getting care. All of this is going to destroy the economy itself.

We need to get the economy going and IMO the way to do that is to take the needed steps to shore up the Heath care system so people believe that they will be taken care of if they do get sick. Until then, you can try to open up the Govt but the economy will not recover because the consumer's will not be there as much as you want them to be and as much as you are willing to "risk your own life" on behalf of the economy.

Just my opinion I guess.
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Infection_Ag11
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In reply to [removed post] • 12:59p, 3/24/20
AG
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy


Until you realize the devastating consequences of tens of thousands of extra 75+ year olds dying all in a short time that you never thought of.
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ORAggieFan
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In reply to tmaggie50 • 1:00p, 3/24/20
tmaggie50 said:
agsalaska said:
Nagler said:
Win At Life said:
Aggiebrewer said:
If that is even close to right we are so dumb to let this destroy our economy
You want to see 20 dead people carried out of every 200-man nursing home in the next few weeks? BTW, there are about 15,000 nursing homes in this country.

Why would that be necessary? As stated above, high risk should quarantine themselves. Keep nursing homes quarantined. The government can help, establish a task force to deliver food and necessities. High risk, stay home. Every one else, social distance or whatever you want to call it.
How exactly does that work? Talk me thru this. How do you quarantine a nursing home or, say all people over 70? There are 15,000 nursing homes. Are you creating 15,000 task forces?

And about these task forces, will they include doctors and nurses? How about people that perform the other 500 or so odd jobs in the nursing home. And are we sending them in wearing full containment suits? Or do we quarantine the task forces? And what about the other millions of Americans that are highly vulnerable but not in nursing homes? Is this done by some mobile hot zone strike force?

Also, what happens to you when you have appendicitis but can't get any help at the hospital? Do we count you as a statistic?

And while all of this is going on what is happening to the economy? Think the Dow hits 30k?

Slow down and think for a second. Is it easier and less costly to shut down the entire world or to shut down an a certain sector of the population who has mobility constraints anyways? Most people do not think the economy will just magically be better if you quarantine a certain demographic, but it would CERTAINLY slow the collapse of the US and world economy as we know it.
Why do you think that's possible? Do those who are at risk ever come in contact with people? Do doctors and care providers not have their kids go to school and remain in quarantine? How do you suggest taking care of these people and at the same time keeping the risk out? It's just not possible and we end up far worse than we are now.
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normaleagle05
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In reply to Fitch • 1:43p, 3/24/20
AG
This is unfounded extrapolation. It's meaningless and serves only to inspire fear.

https://dilbert.com/strip/2007-08-08
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Fitch
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In reply to normaleagle05 • 1:55p, 3/24/20
AG
Sorry if it reads that way -- that was not the intent. When talking about percentages of a population cohort I struggle to understand what that translates to on an individual basis, which is perfectly fair to bring up given folks are talking about the trade offs in lifting the social distancing practices in favor of the economy.

To your point, the numbers are impossible to know, but I see no reason to not use precedent data to extrapolate what possibilities we may have to deal with. The below chart uses just the South Korea percentages, which I would generally assume most think are pretty good compared to the rest of the data set.

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tmaggie50
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In reply to ORAggieFan • 2:04p, 3/24/20
AG
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