The NY Times had a great opinion piece. We are going about this all wrong. We need shelter in place for 60+ but let everyone else carry on. 90% will have little to no symptoms even if they get it. Once you get it you cant get it again. With hcl and zpack for those that get it. We don't need to shut everything down. We need to get it not try and keep anyone from getting it. That is impossible. 50 million people get the flu every year and 500000 die every year. What am I missing?
Richardson extends lock down until April 30th
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Last: 5 yr ago by Wicked Good Ag
adairtexas said:
The NY Times had a great opinion piece. We are going about this all wrong. We need shelter in place for 60+ but let everyone else carry on. 90% will have little to no symptoms even if they get it. Once you get it you cant get it again. With hcl and zpack for those that get it. We don't need to shut everything down. We need to get it not try and keep anyone from getting it. That is impossible. 50 million people get the flu every year and 500000 die every year. What am I missing?
There isn't enough real data yet to demonstrate effectiveness of the medication protocol, although it is promising. Need hard data.
Need to actually have those meds available in pharmacies so people can get them if infected. Will need a lot more pills available before that can happen. Too many doctors are already prescribing those medications for no reason to people with minimal or no symptoms.
Many areas still do not have access to a rapid test, making outpatient treatment that much more difficult.
We are seeing a lot of people under 40 need hospital care in the United States, the over 60 thing is true in terms of overall risk but not as definitive as people think.
Hospitals still don't have enough PPE to deal with the people coming in. A certain percentage of people will still need hospital care and opening the floodgates isn't going to help.
And for the last bloody time, this isn't the flu.
Any educated person at this point who asks 'how is this different than the flu?' either hasn't been listening to the thousands of CDC/WHO/Govt. Press conferences across the world the past few weeks, or has been listening but simply hasn't yet liked the answer to their question, so they keep asking it.
All I am saying is you cant shut down the united states for 3 months. May be crass but so what if 50k people get it and die. Ruining our economy is not worth it. I just dont think it is worth putting people out of work, in bankruptcy, homelessness. Where does it end? When does it end? How do all these out of work people eat, feed their families, pay their Bill's? I think alot of people would take the chance will illness versus financial and personal ruin.
Can't shut down Italy, France, Spain, or any of the other dozens of currently shutdown countries either for 3 months without more and more severe economic damage to those countries and the global economy as a whole. A lot of countries around the world are between a similar rock and hard place.adairtexas said:
All I am saying is you cant shut down the united states for 3 months. May be crass but so what if 50k people get it and die. Ruining our economy is not worth it. I just dont think it is worth putting people out of work, in bankruptcy, homelessness. Where does it end? When does it end? How do all these out of work people eat, feed their families, pay their Bill's? I think alot of people would take the chance will illness versus financial and personal ruin.
But that doesn't mean COVID-19 is 'just another flu' either. All the medical types have said more contagious, more deadly, and U.S./U.K. reported studies that were used as input for those particular governments estimated 1.7 - 2.2 million deaths in the United States if no social distancing actions were enforced by the government and no behavior changes occurred. Those were the kind of 'worst' case numbers put out there. MUCH higher than 50,000 which is the kind of number that has only been thrown out by those pushing the 'just a flu' premise.
Now I agree, they are no doubt hoping/hunting for a tricky balance point between not throwing the world into a long economic depression (instead of just the already guaranteed recession) but also not having a huge numbers of lives lost due to health care systems being overwhelmed. Rock and hard place.
Buck Compton said:3 months and you're talking about 30%+ unemployment and a similar rate of bankruptcy among anything below the mid-market with even major corporations facing challenges. We're talking $2-3 trillion at that point. Worse than the Great Depression.bay fan said:I think the responses that will follow your 6 month proclamation will illustrate why it's being announced in smaller chunks. I don't believe it will be 6 months but I do believe 3 months is not out of the question.AggieAuditor said:
They are all going to do this. 2 weeks here, 3 weeks there, 5 week extensions.
Folks, this is going to last for 6 months minimum and it's terrifying.
No chance this lasts through mid-to-late-June without a revolt.
When people say this, revolt, what is s revolt in a practical sense. Kill cops? Kill military? Assassinate the mayor of your city? Rob your neighbor?
Eh, I think the most revolt these people will do is to go out when they aren't supposed to.
Always love me some hyperbole and exaggerations to try to discredit a point.culdeus said:Buck Compton said:3 months and you're talking about 30%+ unemployment and a similar rate of bankruptcy among anything below the mid-market with even major corporations facing challenges. We're talking $2-3 trillion at that point. Worse than the Great Depression.bay fan said:I think the responses that will follow your 6 month proclamation will illustrate why it's being announced in smaller chunks. I don't believe it will be 6 months but I do believe 3 months is not out of the question.AggieAuditor said:
They are all going to do this. 2 weeks here, 3 weeks there, 5 week extensions.
Folks, this is going to last for 6 months minimum and it's terrifying.
No chance this lasts through mid-to-late-June without a revolt.
When people say this, revolt, what is s revolt in a practical sense. Kill cops? Kill military? Assassinate the mayor of your city? Rob your neighbor?
I don't mean organized revolution and I don't mean I'd be participating. I mean mobs and rioting and looting and a more widespread complete disregard for any and all rules. What happens after a hurricane but not confined to one local area.
You'll also see a growing unrest on social media and a more peaceful revolt to promise to do something about it in November.
People will not be forced into destitution by the government for a disease that doesn't have a high mortality rate in their age range. Many of you likely forget (or never knew) what it was like living paycheck to paycheck. You'll 100% steal what you need before starving. That's over half of our country living paycheck to paycheck.
yes. in many areas of the country, certainly yes. looting and violence and suicide and lawlessness, with the exact actions you list (not sure about mayors) resulting. if we exceed 20% unemployment this is exactly where we are heading.culdeus said:Buck Compton said:3 months and you're talking about 30%+ unemployment and a similar rate of bankruptcy among anything below the mid-market with even major corporations facing challenges. We're talking $2-3 trillion at that point. Worse than the Great Depression.bay fan said:I think the responses that will follow your 6 month proclamation will illustrate why it's being announced in smaller chunks. I don't believe it will be 6 months but I do believe 3 months is not out of the question.AggieAuditor said:
They are all going to do this. 2 weeks here, 3 weeks there, 5 week extensions.
Folks, this is going to last for 6 months minimum and it's terrifying.
No chance this lasts through mid-to-late-June without a revolt.
When people say this, revolt, what is s revolt in a practical sense. Kill cops? Kill military? Assassinate the mayor of your city? Rob your neighbor?
when you cannot feed yourself or your family, and your livelihood / net worth collapses, this is exactly what happens. it is not a question of 'if' on the current course, its 'when'.
I don't have answers and would not want to make the policy decisions facing our leadership today, but dismissive attitudes about economic collapse are naive.
We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
and little towns all around this land...
I mean for the "people will revolt" crowd, in the great depression did people decide to just go ham on their local Kroger?
Sometimes I think people are wishing for doom with this thing.
It's going to be a bumpy ride if this thing carries out until like May. At some point we'll decide that a higher body count is worth it.
Sometimes I think people are wishing for doom with this thing.
It's going to be a bumpy ride if this thing carries out until like May. At some point we'll decide that a higher body count is worth it.
No, no one is wishing for doom. Have you seen what happens during/immediately after a hurricane? Hell have you seen what Philly does when they win a sporting championship?!culdeus said:
I mean for the "people will revolt" crowd, in the great depression did people decide to just go ham on their local Kroger?
Sometimes I think people are wishing for doom with this thing.
It's going to be a bumpy ride if this thing carries out until like May. At some point we'll decide that a higher body count is worth it.
In the Great Depression, people were far more dispersed, self-sufficient, and relied less on chains and our supply chain to feed themselves. When they couldn't, there was wide-spread poverty, soup and bread lines, etc. now, people "go ham on their local Kroger" or convenience store during much less restrictive times.
That's long-term though. In the short term, people will take what they need if they continue to be forced unemployed into June for this. It won't be everywhere, but it'll be significant.
But I don't think that's going to happen cause it won't last until June.
People that are adamant society will fall apart by June are simply worried about themselves and their $$$.
The nation as a whole will pull together and do whatever needs to be done.
When you start reading "how is this different from the flu" and "warm weather will stop this" then assume everything else they are saying isnt well researched.
The nation as a whole will pull together and do whatever needs to be done.
When you start reading "how is this different from the flu" and "warm weather will stop this" then assume everything else they are saying isnt well researched.
Where have I argued that or mentioned either of those two things? I never once said this is the flu or anything about warm weather. On any forum or thread.Proposition Joe said:
People that are adamant society will fall apart by June are simply worried about themselves and their $$$.
The nation as a whole will pull together and do whatever needs to be done.
When you start reading "how is this different from the flu" and "warm weather will stop this" then assume everything else they are saying isnt well researched.
My money is in the market for long-term, I'm putting more in right now because I have a long-term horizon. I don't care about that in short term.
Also, saying revolt or significant looting and social unrest does not mean fall apart. While I agree we as Americans are very good at banding together, few people alive in this country have seen that level of unemployment and we've demonstrated time and time again that smaller disruptions than this cause significant social unrest and lawlessness.
Take Houston in 2017. Did the city band together? Yes, with a lot of help from outside, too. Was there significant looting and other lawlessness, yes. Now you'll have less help coming from the outside, and social unrest is everywhere, not a few cities.
What can stop this?
1 - relaxing restrictions
2 - short term household stimulus so basic needs are met
3 - emergency loans for small businesses
Etc.
The issue is that options 2/3 require those individuals and small businesses to use the funds effectively and ration them, because they're not an unlimited tap you can turn on to get us through the summer. Even then, you'll have some really serious economic implications
I dont disagree that this cant go on forever... or hell even 6 months.
But youve got people - almost all of them non-medical professionals - already ready to roll the dice on this thing and kicking back up by first of April.
2 weeks in and they have had enough.
You go 3 months of this, yeah you are going to start seeing civil unrest... but the people screaming loudest "this has to stop now!" arent mainly the bartenders and restaurant owners - its those watching their 401k.
But youve got people - almost all of them non-medical professionals - already ready to roll the dice on this thing and kicking back up by first of April.
2 weeks in and they have had enough.
You go 3 months of this, yeah you are going to start seeing civil unrest... but the people screaming loudest "this has to stop now!" arent mainly the bartenders and restaurant owners - its those watching their 401k.
Smart, targeted restrictions with an obvious and disclosed purpose using actual data and reasonable assumptions.Quote:
1 - relaxing restrictions
I have friends that are concerned they wont make their next mortgage payment. Especially my friends in the oilfield with WTI below $30. Its not just 401ks, for some its about paying rent and getting kids fed. Some people are too proud to take a handout.Proposition Joe said:
I dont disagree that this cant go on forever... or hell even 6 months.
But youve got people - almost all of them non-medical professionals - already ready to roll the dice on this thing and kicking back up by first of April.
2 weeks in and they have had enough.
You go 3 months of this, yeah you are going to start seeing civil unrest... but the people screaming loudest "this has to stop now!" arent mainly the bartenders and restaurant owners - its those watching their 401k.
tysker said:I have friends that are concerned they wont make their next mortgage payment. Especially my friends in the oilfield with WTI below $30. Its not just 401ks, for some its about paying rent and getting kids fed. Some people are too proud to take a handout.Proposition Joe said:
I dont disagree that this cant go on forever... or hell even 6 months.
But youve got people - almost all of them non-medical professionals - already ready to roll the dice on this thing and kicking back up by first of April.
2 weeks in and they have had enough.
You go 3 months of this, yeah you are going to start seeing civil unrest... but the people screaming loudest "this has to stop now!" arent mainly the bartenders and restaurant owners - its those watching their 401k.
Sure there are exceptions out there -- mainly people who likewise couldn't have handled one hospital trip or a couple of weeks of being sick and not going in.
But with the assistance programs being offered, most of America can make it a month -- even two -- before **** really starts hitting the fan.
Now, if they choose to ignore those assistance programs then yeah, things will be tough.
Mind you I'm certainly not FOR a 2 month shutdown. But if the smartest people in the world tell us it will be the difference between hundreds of thousands dying then yeah, as a country we can make it work without this "revolt" people seem to think is on the horizon.
Where are the smartest people in the world saying shutdown for 2 months? I must be missing that.Proposition Joe said:tysker said:I have friends that are concerned they wont make their next mortgage payment. Especially my friends in the oilfield with WTI below $30. Its not just 401ks, for some its about paying rent and getting kids fed. Some people are too proud to take a handout.Proposition Joe said:
I dont disagree that this cant go on forever... or hell even 6 months.
But youve got people - almost all of them non-medical professionals - already ready to roll the dice on this thing and kicking back up by first of April.
2 weeks in and they have had enough.
You go 3 months of this, yeah you are going to start seeing civil unrest... but the people screaming loudest "this has to stop now!" arent mainly the bartenders and restaurant owners - its those watching their 401k.
Sure there are exceptions out there -- mainly people who likewise couldn't have handled one hospital trip or a couple of weeks of being sick and not going in.
But with the assistance programs being offered, most of America can make it a month -- even two -- before **** really starts hitting the fan.
Now, if they choose to ignore those assistance programs then yeah, things will be tough.
Mind you I'm certainly not FOR a 2 month shutdown. But if the smartest people in the world tell us it will be the difference between hundreds of thousands dying then yeah, as a country we can make it work without this "revolt" people seem to think is on the horizon.
Baba Booey said:Where are the smartest people in the world saying shutdown for 2 months? I must be missing that.Proposition Joe said:tysker said:I have friends that are concerned they wont make their next mortgage payment. Especially my friends in the oilfield with WTI below $30. Its not just 401ks, for some its about paying rent and getting kids fed. Some people are too proud to take a handout.Proposition Joe said:
I dont disagree that this cant go on forever... or hell even 6 months.
But youve got people - almost all of them non-medical professionals - already ready to roll the dice on this thing and kicking back up by first of April.
2 weeks in and they have had enough.
You go 3 months of this, yeah you are going to start seeing civil unrest... but the people screaming loudest "this has to stop now!" arent mainly the bartenders and restaurant owners - its those watching their 401k.
Sure there are exceptions out there -- mainly people who likewise couldn't have handled one hospital trip or a couple of weeks of being sick and not going in.
But with the assistance programs being offered, most of America can make it a month -- even two -- before **** really starts hitting the fan.
Now, if they choose to ignore those assistance programs then yeah, things will be tough.
Mind you I'm certainly not FOR a 2 month shutdown. But if the smartest people in the world tell us it will be the difference between hundreds of thousands dying then yeah, as a country we can make it work without this "revolt" people seem to think is on the horizon.
2 months is just an example in the middle of the two opposite ends of the spectrum (get this country back open by April vs 6 months of being hermits).
I haven't seen a single educated person give factual data on a timeline. It's a moving target with too many variables.Proposition Joe said:Baba Booey said:Where are the smartest people in the world saying shutdown for 2 months? I must be missing that.Proposition Joe said:tysker said:I have friends that are concerned they wont make their next mortgage payment. Especially my friends in the oilfield with WTI below $30. Its not just 401ks, for some its about paying rent and getting kids fed. Some people are too proud to take a handout.Proposition Joe said:
I dont disagree that this cant go on forever... or hell even 6 months.
But youve got people - almost all of them non-medical professionals - already ready to roll the dice on this thing and kicking back up by first of April.
2 weeks in and they have had enough.
You go 3 months of this, yeah you are going to start seeing civil unrest... but the people screaming loudest "this has to stop now!" arent mainly the bartenders and restaurant owners - its those watching their 401k.
Sure there are exceptions out there -- mainly people who likewise couldn't have handled one hospital trip or a couple of weeks of being sick and not going in.
But with the assistance programs being offered, most of America can make it a month -- even two -- before **** really starts hitting the fan.
Now, if they choose to ignore those assistance programs then yeah, things will be tough.
Mind you I'm certainly not FOR a 2 month shutdown. But if the smartest people in the world tell us it will be the difference between hundreds of thousands dying then yeah, as a country we can make it work without this "revolt" people seem to think is on the horizon.
2 months is just an example in the middle of the two opposite ends of the spectrum (get this country back open by April vs 6 months of being hermits).
We simply are not going to go to the lengths China did to flatten the curve, and we care too much about our citizens to just give up on the elderly like Italy.
I think every educated person on this is incredibly frustrated, and knows if we don't come up with either a vaccine or an expedited medication that can remove the worst symptoms, this is going to take over the entire country eventually.
What some of the experts on this have recently said:Baba Booey said:Where are the smartest people in the world saying shutdown for 2 months? I must be missing that.Proposition Joe said:tysker said:I have friends that are concerned they wont make their next mortgage payment. Especially my friends in the oilfield with WTI below $30. Its not just 401ks, for some its about paying rent and getting kids fed. Some people are too proud to take a handout.Proposition Joe said:
I dont disagree that this cant go on forever... or hell even 6 months.
But youve got people - almost all of them non-medical professionals - already ready to roll the dice on this thing and kicking back up by first of April.
2 weeks in and they have had enough.
You go 3 months of this, yeah you are going to start seeing civil unrest... but the people screaming loudest "this has to stop now!" arent mainly the bartenders and restaurant owners - its those watching their 401k.
Sure there are exceptions out there -- mainly people who likewise couldn't have handled one hospital trip or a couple of weeks of being sick and not going in.
But with the assistance programs being offered, most of America can make it a month -- even two -- before **** really starts hitting the fan.
Now, if they choose to ignore those assistance programs then yeah, things will be tough.
Mind you I'm certainly not FOR a 2 month shutdown. But if the smartest people in the world tell us it will be the difference between hundreds of thousands dying then yeah, as a country we can make it work without this "revolt" people seem to think is on the horizon.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-death-peak-three-weeks-epidemiologist/index.html
Quote:
A leading epidemiologist advising the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated the peak of deaths in the US coronavirus pandemic will be three weeks from now, after which "most of the damage will be done," and says it may be possible to only isolate the vulnerable, allowing many back to work.
The CDC confirmed that Ira Longini, professor at the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida, is a "funded partner." The agency said he works with them on Covid-19 modeling.
Thank you for this. That is much more in line than 2-6 months.Pumpkinhead said:What some of the experts on this have recently said:Baba Booey said:Where are the smartest people in the world saying shutdown for 2 months? I must be missing that.Proposition Joe said:tysker said:I have friends that are concerned they wont make their next mortgage payment. Especially my friends in the oilfield with WTI below $30. Its not just 401ks, for some its about paying rent and getting kids fed. Some people are too proud to take a handout.Proposition Joe said:
I dont disagree that this cant go on forever... or hell even 6 months.
But youve got people - almost all of them non-medical professionals - already ready to roll the dice on this thing and kicking back up by first of April.
2 weeks in and they have had enough.
You go 3 months of this, yeah you are going to start seeing civil unrest... but the people screaming loudest "this has to stop now!" arent mainly the bartenders and restaurant owners - its those watching their 401k.
Sure there are exceptions out there -- mainly people who likewise couldn't have handled one hospital trip or a couple of weeks of being sick and not going in.
But with the assistance programs being offered, most of America can make it a month -- even two -- before **** really starts hitting the fan.
Now, if they choose to ignore those assistance programs then yeah, things will be tough.
Mind you I'm certainly not FOR a 2 month shutdown. But if the smartest people in the world tell us it will be the difference between hundreds of thousands dying then yeah, as a country we can make it work without this "revolt" people seem to think is on the horizon.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-death-peak-three-weeks-epidemiologist/index.htmlQuote:
A leading epidemiologist advising the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated the peak of deaths in the US coronavirus pandemic will be three weeks from now, after which "most of the damage will be done," and says it may be possible to only isolate the vulnerable, allowing many back to work.
The CDC confirmed that Ira Longini, professor at the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida, is a "funded partner." The agency said he works with them on Covid-19 modeling.
Only way this is even partially solved economically is if all loans for land, either business or private are deferred for a period of X months whatever X is...maybe even include car loans if it lasts more than two months
this would allow for mortgage payments to be delayed, allowing renters to not have to pay when landlords are not required to pay as well as business' to avoid rent as well.
it could help the economy in some facets if those who make payments during this time have it go to the principal of the loan during that time
this would allow for mortgage payments to be delayed, allowing renters to not have to pay when landlords are not required to pay as well as business' to avoid rent as well.
it could help the economy in some facets if those who make payments during this time have it go to the principal of the loan during that time
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