5 out of 50 non Covid random people at a hospital test positive while showing no symptoms.

https://www.tijd.be/politiek-economie/belgie/algemeen/niet-covid-patienten-uz-brussel-blijken-bij-opname-toch-besmet/10216783.html

Belton Ag said:

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De hoofdpunten van vandaag, leest u in De Tijd Avond.

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This part really stood out to me.

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I'm sure your phone has a translate feature.

It is interesting . .the Belgians are testing new admits just in case and

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Since Monday, UZ Brussel has also been testing all patients admitted to the coronavirus with non-covid complaints. The hospital systematically takes a CT scan for admissions. "This allows us to see more quickly whether someone has the virus than with the traditional PCR test," says Johan de Mey, head of radiology. "We do that to protect staff and other patients, but also for those patients themselves."

On Tuesday, 50 patients were tested in this way. Five of them had a reaction to the virus in the lungs. The classic test afterwards confirmed in all five that they were positive, while none of them had any symptoms.

"It is, of course, a small sample that has yet to be scientifically confirmed," says Professor de Mey. "But if so, you may be able to deduce that 10 percent of Belgians have the virus without symptoms. We do not know how contagious such people are without symptoms, but this is a plea to monitor quarantine closely and monitor the bulkheads between people. Also keep in mind that we may receive infected patients who do not show a reaction in the lungs. "

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Have to be careful with the "asymptomatic positive test", you shed the virus before becoming symptomatic and may of these patients go on to develop symptoms.

That being said, it does appear a decent percent of children and (possibly) young adults represent true asymptomatic carriers. Most people of more advanced age will develop symptoms.

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I thought there were cases were people keep shedding the virus for up to a few weeks after showing symptoms and have recovered.

k2aggie07 said:

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Are they really asymptomatic if you see an issue on the CT?

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I wonder about this as well.

Going back to Nawlins' post this morning:

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I have seen the bilateral interstitial pneumonia on the xray of the asymptomatic shoulder dislocation or on the CT's of the (respiratory) asymptomatic polytrauma patient. Essentially if they are in my ER, they have it. Seen three positive flu swabs in 2 weeks and all three had Covid 19 as well.

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That sample size though

Windy City Ag said:

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Again, you can't just divide the numerator by the denominator. If you're going to scale up to the number of hypothetical cases, you also need to calculate the projected future death total which will likely be more than a magnitude of the total death toll to date. Most people that will die from this virus got it too recently to have died. Also, they may show symptoms at a later date, this could just measure who is in the incubation period.

I just think people really need to be careful as they try their best to minimize this virus. You are making a lot of generous assumptions and being too optimistic and dismissing the threat is how this can really do some serious damage.

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Got it. There's enough people on here that say things like that seriously (see all of forum 16), that it's not clear abundantly clear.

That makes sense. I thought symptom meant evidence of sickness.

ramblin_ag02 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Are they really asymptomatic if you see an issue on the CT?

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Sure. Symptoms are patient complaints. If the patient has no cough, shortness of breath, wheezing, etc, then the have no lung symptoms and are asymptomatic. The CT can find lung damage even before the patient feels sick.

Healthy young people have a lot of extra lung capacity. They can have a piece of a lung, or even an entire lung, removed and still not have any breathing issues. If you think about the virus impairing lung function by 40% (a completely made up number not based in any science) then a healthy young person might not even notice that. But that may be enough to kill an older person or someone with diseased lungs

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Interesting. I have no idea how respiration works, but pretend I'm a young person with health lungs, I get this and my lung function is diminished X% (some number under the "extra lung capacity" value). Presumably that would be something I probably wouldn't notice sitting on the couch, but could notice when I'm on a 4 mile run, right?

Was wondering about this as well. I'm 37, in great health, lift/run 5 days a week, no drinking, no smoking. My last two runs have been exceedingly hard when they should be getting easier. Feels like I can't draw enough breath. Zero other symptoms whatsoever though. Have been home quarantined for 2.5 solid weeks except for 1 trip to HEB. Was thinking maybe just temp/humidity messing with me but of course now I'm paranoid.

Belton Ag said:

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Diyala Nick said:

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Belton Ag said:

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De hoofdpunten van vandaag, leest u in De Tijd Avond.

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This part really stood out to me.

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I'm sure your phone has a translate feature.

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In all seriousness... this thing having an R0 of greater than 2, and having people enter the country from infected areas going back to mid-November, the actual infection rate has to be far, far greater than what's being reported.

Edit: the part of nawlins ag's post this morning that really stood out to me was that so many of the people he tested for flu and other admissions were coming back positive for this thing. It speaks to just how prevalent this thing might already be.

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The first case in the US was traced back to January 15th, a traveler from Wuhan, using genome sequencing. So no, this wasn't in the United States in November. It crossed into the first human the 2nd or 3rd week of November in China.

Mordred said:

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ramblin_ag02 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Are they really asymptomatic if you see an issue on the CT?

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Sure. Symptoms are patient complaints. If the patient has no cough, shortness of breath, wheezing, etc, then the have no lung symptoms and are asymptomatic. The CT can find lung damage even before the patient feels sick.

Healthy young people have a lot of extra lung capacity. They can have a piece of a lung, or even an entire lung, removed and still not have any breathing issues. If you think about the virus impairing lung function by 40% (a completely made up number not based in any science) then a healthy young person might not even notice that. But that may be enough to kill an older person or someone with diseased lungs

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Interesting. I have no idea how respiration works, but pretend I'm a young person with health lungs, I get this and my lung function is diminished X% (some number under the "extra lung capacity" value). Presumably that would be something I probably wouldn't notice sitting on the couch, but could notice when I'm on a 4 mile run, right?

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It's possible you could find some level of exertion that would reveal symptoms, but maybe not even then. The bodies of fit people make a lot of adaptations that make exercise more efficient

ramblin_ag02 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Are they really asymptomatic if you see an issue on the CT?

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Sure. Symptoms are patient complaints. If the patient has no cough, shortness of breath, wheezing, etc, then the have no lung symptoms and are asymptomatic. The CT can find lung damage even before the patient feels sick.

Healthy young people have a lot of extra lung capacity. They can have a piece of a lung, or even an entire lung, removed and still not have any breathing issues. If you think about the virus impairing lung function by 40% (a completely made up number not based in any science) then a healthy young person might not even notice that. But that may be enough to kill an older person or someone with diseased lungs

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So they are asymptomatic but have damage from the virus. This probably isn't known yet, but is this lung evidence something they 'recover' from?

No clue yet. There was a study among recovered patients in China that showed some permanent reduction in lung function, but I think those were hospitalized patients that required oxygen or more intensive care. We already know that pneumonia of any cause can cause permanent decrease in lung function, but I'm not aware of any information that shows that COVID is worse than other causes

It's an interesting way to think about it for a layman. Asymptomatic doesn't mean the virus isn't having an effect or causing damage, it simply means the patient doesn't complain of any symptoms, got it.

Makes sense. I guess my mom was asymptomatic back in the 80's for her active case of tuberculosis. Family all got TB tests at the public health dept based on a TV ad. We were all positive for exposure, mom had an active case and had already lost 1/3 of a lung to TB (clean Arkansas country livin). She was playing competitive tennis at the time and never had any symptoms. Still doing fine 40 years later.

But it's good to note in Dr parlance that asymptomatic doesn't mean "no damage no problem".

Gordo14 said:

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Windy City Ag said:

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So I am going to beat everyone to the punch . . . . this means there are currently 33.1 Million current cases in the U.S. with 931 deaths for a fatality rate of 0.003%

YESSS!!!!!!!!

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Again, you can't just divide the numerator by the denominator. If you're going to scale up to the number of hypothetical cases, you also need to calculate the projected future death total which will likely be more than a magnitude of the total death toll to date. Most people that will die from this virus got it too recently to have died. Also, they may show symptoms at a later date, this could just measure who is in the incubation period.

I just think people really need to be careful as they try their best to minimize this virus. You are making a lot of generous assumptions and being too optimistic and dismissing the threat is how this can really do some serious damage.

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No, he just scaled up from a sample size of 50 and then multiplied and ran with it. It's ironic because the people trying so hard to minimize this and come up with any and every reason to go so consider themselves "open minded" and "critical thinkers" because they work really, really hard on confirming their bias for the "right" ideas.

ETA I missed the sarcasm. Says a lot about our current state. Carry on windy city.

The lung capacity statements above make me wonder if I am in the "asymptomatic" group. Last Tuesday night I felt poorly with some slight aches. On my run Wednesday morning I noticed difficulty maintaining my pace due to labored breathing. I do these runs regularly so I notice when my performance and times are off. Throughout the day I noticed similar issues. I had progressively better workouts Thursday and Friday and feel well now. I don't normally fall victims to the flu (haven't had a fever in 10 years??) in the Past when I did fall victim it was normally a 24 hour period of fever and the a quick return. I don't think there is anything I could or should do. My wife appears fine at this point. I haven't touched another human in 2 weeks.

NOTE: Even though I still go to the office in San Antonio we practice social distancing and hand washing on every entry to our main office, hand washing at least at lunch if you don't leave and disinfecting your office surface once a week.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Windy City Ag said:

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So I am going to beat everyone to the punch . . . . this means there are currently 33.1 Million current cases in the U.S. with 931 deaths for a fatality rate of 0.003%

YESSS!!!!!!!!

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Again, you can't just divide the numerator by the denominator. If you're going to scale up to the number of hypothetical cases, you also need to calculate the projected future death total which will likely be more than a magnitude of the total death toll to date. Most people that will die from this virus got it too recently to have died. Also, they may show symptoms at a later date, this could just measure who is in the incubation period.

I just think people really need to be careful as they try their best to minimize this virus. You are making a lot of generous assumptions and being too optimistic and dismissing the threat is how this can really do some serious damage.

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No, he just scaled up from a sample size of 50 and then multiplied and ran with it. It's ironic because the people trying so hard to minimize this and come up with any and every reason to go so consider themselves "open minded" and "critical thinkers" because they work really, really hard on confirming their bias for the "right" ideas.

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He was doing satire.

Iceland has rested about 3% of their population, which is significant (most in the world). Half of those testing positive show no symptoms.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms

The covidiots will not be happy when more and more data like this starts getting released/studied over the next month.

OK, champ. Thanks for the lesson because I had no idea.

posted for comment:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

this researcher was recently forecasting a half million deaths in the UK, driving their change in policy from original 'herd' immunity to a 'lockdown' model.

the wild fluctuations in these model forecasts drive a lot of both fear among populations, and resentment among the economically impacted.