https://accordingtohoyt.com/2020/03/27/covid-19-and-us-mortality-by-i-ratel/

I am seeing more and more analysis from people (which I will link to this thread) on this exact CDC data and they all seem to be showing similar results. Overall mortality rates are dramatically down in the US versus the past 5 years on average. I am betting a majority of the population did not understand the average mortality rate in the USA and the delta that CV-19 applied to that rate.

Discussion point:

While the conversation of CV-19 mortality rate is front and center and the entire US and world are hyper focused on battling this virus; are we engaged in a zero sum game scenario?

If this data is anywhere near accurate, why is it that hospitals were not in a critical situation previous or was it that the mortality was spread amongst different health departments that no single one was overwhelmed but in the case of CV-19, it alone would overwhelm any single hospital department with normal operations ongoing?

Lots to take away from this data and there could be a lag in CDC data even though they state it is 100% reporting, there could be modifications in future due to being overwhelmed.

Saving lives is definately important and this virus may have inadvertently saved more lives than have been lost on average in the same periods over the past few years for overall mortality, but damaged the economy during the same period.

These few months will be studied for years to come for sure.

cone said:

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i would imagine motor vehicle fatalities have fallen off a cliff

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So many people die on the roads on a daily basis that reducing traffic by any percentage is going to make a dent in mortality rates. Let alone shutting it down almost entirely in some major urban centers. Will be interesting to see the reduction in EMS response to auto accidents after this.

Was talking about this over the weekend

The kind of death drop offs you'd see from isolation are the kinds of deaths that don't take long to occur. A COVID patient can take weeks to die, a car accident victim takes hours. That's why hospitals weren't previously overrun.

I was actually wondering yesterday if the opposite of this data was true. I've spent more time around the house doing things I wouldn't normally do. (Cleaning out the attic) As I was about to fall off the ladder for the third time I thought to myself I need to be a little more careful. Then wondered how many accidents people are having around the house doing things they normally wouldn't be doing. Obviously I survived yesterday thankfully.

I actually don't know this as I have never seen data related to deaths that occur outside of hospitals versus within.

Another person made a great point as to historical turnover rate in hospital beds versus CV-19 turnover rates.

Palovic said:

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I actually don't know this as I have never seen data related to deaths that occur outside of hospitals versus within.

Another person made a great point as to historical turnover rate in hospital beds versus CV-19 turnover rates.

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715,000 people died in hospitals in 2018. That same year, a total of 2,839,305 people died in the US. Therefore, 2,124,305, or 74.8%, died outside of hospitals. It stands to reason that some percentage (probably a fairly significant percentage) of those who died in hospitals did so without being hospitalized. So, yeah . . . many, many more people die outside of hospitalization than in it.

QED

WHELP - there goes the mortuary/burial business.

Time for a bailout.

Snow Monkey Ambassador said:

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Palovic said:

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I actually don't know this as I have never seen data related to deaths that occur outside of hospitals versus within.

Another person made a great point as to historical turnover rate in hospital beds versus CV-19 turnover rates.

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715,000 people died in hospitals in 2018. That same year, a total of 2,839,305 people died in the US. Therefore, 2,124,305, or 74.8%, died outside of hospitals. It stands to reason that some percentage (probably a fairly significant percentage) of those who died in hospitals did so without being hospitalized. So, yeah . . . many, many more people die outside of hospitalization than in it.

QED

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Thanks for that data. The data point of deaths in hospitals in interesting but per the same study "According to the CDC, the number of people dying in the hospital dropped from 776,000 to 715,000 (an 8% drop), even as hospital admissions increased from 31.7 million to 35.1 million (an 11% increase)." The hospital data does not account for senior living facilities nor anternative care options per the Harvard study below.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/where-people-die-2018103115278

Death by knifing had decreased because of social distancing.

Death by gunshot has increased.

CardiffGiant said:

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I was actually wondering yesterday if the opposite of this data was true. I've spent more time around the house doing things I wouldn't normally do. (Cleaning out the attic) As I was about to fall off the ladder for the third time I thought to myself I need to be a little more careful. Then wondered how many accidents people are having around the house doing things they normally wouldn't be doing. Obviously I survived yesterday thankfully.

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I had the same thought as I was wielding my chainsaw for the first time in about a year this weekend.

Palovic said:

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Snow Monkey Ambassador said:

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Palovic said:

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I actually don't know this as I have never seen data related to deaths that occur outside of hospitals versus within.

Another person made a great point as to historical turnover rate in hospital beds versus CV-19 turnover rates.

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715,000 people died in hospitals in 2018. That same year, a total of 2,839,305 people died in the US. Therefore, 2,124,305, or 74.8%, died outside of hospitals. It stands to reason that some percentage (probably a fairly significant percentage) of those who died in hospitals did so without being hospitalized. So, yeah . . . many, many more people die outside of hospitalization than in it.

QED

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Thanks for that data. The data point of deaths in hospitals in interesting but per the same study "According to the CDC, the number of people dying in the hospital dropped from 776,000 to 715,000 (an 8% drop), even as hospital admissions increased from 31.7 million to 35.1 million (an 11% increase)." The hospital data does not account for senior living facilities nor anternative care options per the Harvard study below.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/where-people-die-2018103115278

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I don't understand. You're initial hypothesis failed to account for a pretty basic fact, I pointed that out, and now you're talking about things wholly unrelated to the initial hypothesis as a "counter-argument"? Uh, okay.

Looks like a string of tweets was taken down.

Snow Monkey Ambassador said:

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Palovic said:

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Snow Monkey Ambassador said:

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Palovic said:

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I actually don't know this as I have never seen data related to deaths that occur outside of hospitals versus within.

Another person made a great point as to historical turnover rate in hospital beds versus CV-19 turnover rates.

---

715,000 people died in hospitals in 2018. That same year, a total of 2,839,305 people died in the US. Therefore, 2,124,305, or 74.8%, died outside of hospitals. It stands to reason that some percentage (probably a fairly significant percentage) of those who died in hospitals did so without being hospitalized. So, yeah . . . many, many more people die outside of hospitalization than in it.

QED

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Thanks for that data. The data point of deaths in hospitals in interesting but per the same study "According to the CDC, the number of people dying in the hospital dropped from 776,000 to 715,000 (an 8% drop), even as hospital admissions increased from 31.7 million to 35.1 million (an 11% increase)." The hospital data does not account for senior living facilities nor anternative care options per the Harvard study below.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/where-people-die-2018103115278

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I don't understand. You're initial hypothesis failed to account for a pretty basic fact, I pointed that out, and now you're talking about things wholly unrelated to the initial hypothesis as a "counter-argument"? Uh, okay.

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Interesting comment. Hospital deaths was never a component of my discussion as not everyone who visits a hospital dies. Hospital throughput was my concern in regards to being overwhelmed. The deaths inside and outside hospitals was a data point and discussion you initiated but you yourself did not include the total number of people being admitted to hospitals this year.

I am all for good healthy discussion but you seem to have an argumentative tone in you posts which is unnecessary. On the other hand, your contribution of data is very welcome and it only adds to the overall benefit of the discussion for all involved.

Lurker here, but I do find mortality rates and this pandemic fascinating in a morbid way.

If anyone is like me and doesn't trust a word press site from a science fiction author, this appears to be the direct source of the data referenced:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluviewinteractive.htm

If you download the mortality data, look at the last number that illustrates the sharp decline. It appears to only be 79% complete. It should either be discarded or adjusted to estimate the actual value, right?. Either way, i think it makes it appear to be decelerating much quicker than it actually is.

Let me know if I am thinking about this wrong - I've never been to that CDC site and I am on my lunch break.

I appreciate the OP. That article was very interesting.

If SMA spent more time contributing something thoughtful and less time just picking nits (poorly), he/she would likely not be the subject of so many more IGNORE buttons...

PerpetualLurker said:

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Lurker here, but I do find mortality rates and this pandemic fascinating in a morbid way.

If anyone is like me and doesn't trust a word press site from a science fiction author, this appears to be the direct source of the data referenced:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluviewinteractive.htm

If you download the mortality data, look at the last number that illustrates the sharp decline. It appears to only be 79% complete. It should either be discarded or adjusted to estimate the actual value, right?. Either way, i think it makes it appear to be decelerating much quicker than it actually is.

Let me know if I am thinking about this wrong - I've never been to that CDC site and I am on my lunch break.

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Agree. After week 52, the current year data seems to lose its correlation to past years' data.

This website is a pretty good one for world population (estimates births and deaths in ticker fashion), and it does break it down to countries:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

cone said:

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i would imagine motor vehicle fatalities have fallen off a cliff

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Maybe this will finally end the 20 year streak of consecutive days with a motor vehicle death in Texas!

buffalo chip said:

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I appreciate the OP. That article was very interesting.

If SMA spent more time contributing something thoughtful and less time just picking nits (poorly), he/she would likely not be the subject of so many more IGNORE buttons...

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The "article" is a blog post from a Tron cosplayer who self-publishes romance and sci-fi novels, not some sort of scientific treatise. Moreover, if pointing out obvious factual and logical flaws in poorly thought out hypotheses is "picking nits," well, let's just say we're probably never going to see eye-to-eye. Y'all enjoy the Tron lady . . . lools like she's got nice cans.

It is always easy to dismiss other peoples work (even is the put a disclaimer that they are not a specialist). The CDC data is available for everyone to evaluate and utilize.

Once again, the topic was meant to invoke healthy discussion and not argumentative correspondence.

In post additional analysis that I find as I got busy yesterday and never got around to linking them here.