Fauci- CV-19 "durable immunity"

14,230 Views | 75 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by BiochemAg97
thirdcoast
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:53p, 3/30/20
AG
In the interview below Fauci states that he doesn't know for sure, but would bet that if your body fights off CV19, then you have lasting immunity. Compares it to any other viral infection your body clears.

To me, this is HUGE, and I have been shocked how this is not a much bigger part of the conversation. Shocked that Trump hasn't yet mentioned it in a presser, as a strong possibility. If they can prove immunity, and that most of the population has antibodies already, then this is no where near the doom and gloom predictions.


7:10 mark

Reply Quote
1
FratboyLegend
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:00p, 3/30/20
Isn't that the way it works with all viruses? Is this a surprise?
#CertifiedSIP
Reply Quote
41
Cappy407
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:01p, 3/30/20
AG
This is a pretty common assumption and had been discussed and mentioned many times, including here on this forum. I'm not sure where you're getting that everyone is walking around with antibodies already though.

In order to develop immunity, you need to get the virus and recover from it. That's the problem. We don't have the resources for everyone to get the virus at once.
Reply Quote
11
Rydyn
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to FratboyLegend • 8:03p, 3/30/20
AG
FratboyLegend said:
Isn't that the way it works with all viruses? Is this a surprise?
From what I understand, the Corona Viruses that are lumped in under the "Common Cold" category do not create a durable immunity, so it's always been a concern about this one.
Reply Quote
22
FratboyLegend
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Rydyn • 8:03p, 3/30/20
Rydyn said:
FratboyLegend said:
Isn't that the way it works with all viruses? Is this a surprise?
From what I understand, the Corona Viruses that are lumped in under the "Common Cold" category do not create a durable immunity, so it's always been a concern about this one.
Got it. Thanks.
#CertifiedSIP
Reply Quote
TXAggie2011
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:05p, 3/30/20
AG
Quote:
To me, this is HUGE, and I have been shocked how this is not a much bigger part of the conversation. Shocked that Trump hasn't yet mentioned it in a presser, as a strong possibility. If they can prove immunity, and that most of the population has antibodies already, then this is no where near the doom and gloom predictions.
I can't say why or why not Trump or whoever hasn't made a bigger deal of this. Only Trump can.

But, they can't prove the bolded part right now. They especially can't prove "most of the population" already has the antibodies.

In my view, they should be very careful about saying something that would embolden people to break the shelters in place.

This would be a big deal, and worthy of a lot of talk, but maybe not right now. Not yet.
Reply Quote
8
1 edit
Crocs
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:11p, 3/30/20
AG
That's how your body works, yes
Reply Quote
4
pocketrockets06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Cappy407 • 8:12p, 3/30/20
AG
The other piece that is not addressed by this is the more hosts a virus infects, the greater chance it mutates like the flu (where the markers our immunity system uses to identify it change making the vaccine ineffective) or mutates into something more virulent. Either one is bad for our long term ability to deal with it.
Reply Quote
3
thirdcoast
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:43p, 3/30/20
AG
The WHO, CDC, WH Task Force, etc. have not really discussed the topic of durable immunity (at least not publicly). I understand why they may not, but the way Fauci (of all people) casually talks about it, well it's surprising it's not a texags pg 1 thread, or comment Trump has made that CNN is going to distort.

I was also under the assumption this was a reoccurring type of corona virus like cold. They may not be able to mass test for antibodies, but considering how easily this spreads and how many are asymptomatic, it conceivable that 30-40-50+% of population could already have cleared it and built an immunity.

Reply Quote
5
deadbq03
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to pocketrockets06 • 9:27p, 3/30/20
AG
pocketrockets06 said:
The other piece that is not addressed by this is the more hosts a virus infects, the greater chance it mutates like the flu (where the markers our immunity system uses to identify it change making the vaccine ineffective) or mutates into something more virulent. Either one is bad for our long term ability to deal with it.
Yep. It was the 2nd wave of the Spanish flu, after it mutated, that caused the vast majority of the deaths.
Reply Quote
1
KidDoc
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:35p, 3/30/20
AG
Look through the lens of science. Most DNA virus, like chickenpox, we develop lifetime immunity on recovery. This is called IgG on lab tests and it can be measured. The RNA common cold viruses our body does not really care about and does not induce memory B cells that keep pumpng out IgG. The vast majority of Coronavirus has no long term immunity. The closest buddy of the current strains is SARS and MERS and, in small studies, that immunity seems to last about 12 months then fades.

The bottom line is that this virus is about three months old so nobody really knows how long immunity will last.

I'm not as optimistic as Fausci that recovery will equate to lifetime immunity. In fact I will be surprised if it does. Hopefully in the next 18 months a good vaccine can be proven to be effective and give long term immunity and this will go the way of smallpox.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Reply Quote
33
JB99
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:52p, 3/30/20
AG
common knowledge
Reply Quote
Barnyard96
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:16p, 3/30/20
AG
This makes sense. The doctor said I cant get HIV again.
Reply Quote
22
Proposition Joe
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:19p, 3/30/20
It's been talked about since the beginning. They haven't pushed it because they don't know absolutely for certain, just that it's extremely likely.
Reply Quote
1
normaleagle05
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to KidDoc • 10:22p, 3/30/20
AG
KidDoc said:
Hopefully in the next 18 months a good vaccine can be proven to be effective and give long term immunity and this will go the way of smallpox.

What makes you hopeful this will happen? Has a similar vaccine been created recently? Has a vaccine ever been created for a similar virus?

From what I've read as a complete outsider to medicine I'm wishful for such a thing. Hopeful seems a stretch. I'd love to be proven wrong.
Reply Quote
AgResearch
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to normaleagle05 • 10:31p, 3/30/20
AG
normaleagle05 said:

What makes you hopeful this will happen? Has a similar vaccine been created recently? Has a vaccine ever been created for a similar virus?

From what I've read as a complete outsider to medicine I'm wishful for such a thing. Hopeful seems a stretch. I'd love to be proven wrong.
Look at what it's doing to our healthcare system and economy. It absolutely slaughters the people that are most affected and it's not just old people. There's a huge incentive to produce a vaccine for this virus. That's why it will happen unless long-term immunity occurs from initial infection.
Reply Quote
1 edit
Gizzards
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:13p, 3/30/20
AG
It may be the case that durable immunity occurs after a Covid 19 infection, but only time will tell. First it will need to be determined how long the antibodies produced remain detectable. More importantly, just like influenza, will be the likelihood of virus mutations. This is why a new flu vaccine is recommended annually.
Reply Quote
thirdcoast
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:34p, 3/30/20
AG
I understand there may be liability issues or red tape, but how hard is it to re-expose patients who have tested positive and cleared it? Do controlled tests with some young healthy minor symptom positives turned negative, and see if any turn back positive when re-exposed. Give them each a million dollars or whatever to sign their life away, and help provide a data points that could save trillions.

Hopefully they have already started or completed these immunity experiments so that we aren't just relying on best guesses of optimistic or pessimistic doctors.
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
DeangeloVickers
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:35p, 3/30/20
AG
Get it now when there is plenty of hospital space?
Reply Quote
3
Bobcat06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Rydyn • 12:08a, 3/31/20
AG
Rydyn said:
FratboyLegend said:
Isn't that the way it works with all viruses? Is this a surprise?
From what I understand, the Corona Viruses that are lumped in under the "Common Cold" category do not create a durable immunity, so it's always been a concern about this one.
There's also been some speculation that CV has Antibody Dependent Enhancement
Reply Quote
Rutedown
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to thirdcoast • 12:15a, 3/31/20
thirdcoast said:
In the interview below Fauci states that he doesn't know for sure, but would bet that if your body fights off CV19, then you have lasting immunity. Compares it to any other viral infection your body clears.

To me, this is HUGE, and I have been shocked how this is not a much bigger part of the conversation. Shocked that Trump hasn't yet mentioned it in a presser, as a strong possibility. If they can prove immunity, and that most of the population has antibodies already, then this is no where near the doom and gloom predictions.


7:10 mark

Why run with something that is just a guess? More testing is needed and we have brilliant people all over the world working on the problem.
Reply Quote
thirdcoast
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Rutedown • 12:37a, 3/31/20
AG
I agree more testing is needed. But that should include re-exposing known positives once they clear to see if re-infection occurs. It almost seems like they are just going to wait until next season to test the immunity hypothesis.

A "guess"?

Dr. Fauci said "it's inconceivable that you would get re-infected in weeks" after clearing CV-19. He went further to say "You will get some kind of durable immunity, certainlyfor a few years". He was willing to bet his and the interviewer's experience as doctors that basically re-infection rate would be rare or non-existent....didn't sound like a guess.

Pretty sure Dr. Fauci is the world's premier expert on infectious disease. At least that is what both sides are claiming.
Reply Quote
Necrosis
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:16a, 3/31/20
AG
ED doctor here. This is a NOVEL VIRUS. It's literally in the name. No one has immunity to this virus by definition. It's a relative to Coronavirus in the since that it shares the same name. But it might as well be a different race. Your body has no antibodies to defend against it until you are exposed which is part of why it creates such an immunity ****storm that ultimately can lead to death. There are no easy answers here. We have to be strong and disciplined to snuff this fire out. I'd urge you to stop looking for excusing and treat this grass fire with the respect it deserves.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Reply Quote
23
fig96
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to thirdcoast • 2:55a, 3/31/20
AG
thirdcoast said:
To me, this is HUGE, and I have been shocked how this is not a much bigger part of the conversation. Shocked that Trump hasn't yet mentioned it in a presser, as a strong possibility. If they can prove immunity, and that most of the population has antibodies already, then this is no where near the doom and gloom predictions.
We can't currently test all the people that need tests, much less most of the population.
Reply Quote
eric76
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to pocketrockets06 • 4:06a, 3/31/20
AG
pocketrockets06 said:
The other piece that is not addressed by this is the more hosts a virus infects, the greater chance it mutates like the flu (where the markers our immunity system uses to identify it change making the vaccine ineffective) or mutates into something more virulent. Either one is bad for our long term ability to deal with it.
It is true that there can be small mutations in the influenza virus, but the big changes occur when an organism and one or more of its cells are infected with two different influenza viruses at the same time. The two viruses can then recombine to form a new influenza virus. Often, these viruses don't flourish, but every once in a while, one does.

This often happens on farms where hogs and poultry are kept close together. The hogs can get a swine virus and the poultry a bird virus and then one or more of the hogs or poultry can get a second infection from the other.

Because of this issue, the best practice, if you raise both hogs and poultry, is to keep them well separated. For example, keep the hogs on one side of the farm and the poultry on the other side.

At least, that's my understanding of it.
Reply Quote
BiochemAg97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Gizzards • 4:39a, 3/31/20
AG
Gizzards said:
It may be the case that durable immunity occurs after a Covid 19 infection, but only time will tell. First it will need to be determined how long the antibodies produced remain detectable. More importantly, just like influenza, will be the likelihood of virus mutations. This is why a new flu vaccine is recommended annually.
We have the data on the mutation rate. It is not like the flu. The parts of the virus recognized for immune response are highly conserved. In fact, polyclonal antibodies to SARS-CoV also recognize SARS-CoV2.
Reply Quote
3
DadHammer
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to pocketrockets06 • 7:18a, 3/31/20
AG
pocketrockets06 said:
The other piece that is not addressed by this is the more hosts a virus infects, the greater chance it mutates like the flu (where the markers our immunity system uses to identify it change making the vaccine ineffective) or mutates into something more virulent. Either one is bad for our long term ability to deal with it.

Studies are showing the virus to be fairly stable and a vaccine highly likely.
Reply Quote
5
thirdcoast
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Necrosis • 8:39a, 3/31/20
AG
Necrosis said:
ED doctor here. This is a NOVEL VIRUS. It's literally in the name. No one has immunity to this virus by definition. It's a relative to Coronavirus in the since that it shares the same name. But it might as well be a different race. Your body has no antibodies to defend against it until you are exposed which is part of why it creates such an immunity ****storm that ultimately can lead to death. There are no easy answers here. We have to be strong and disciplined to snuff this fire out. I'd urge you to stop looking for excusing and treat this grass fire with the respect it deserves.


Obviously no one has immunity prior to contracting and beating it, I don't think anyone is claiming that immunity existed otherwise.

What exactly is an "immunity shytstorm"? I thought it was basically onset of pneumonia that is leading to death in small minority in of cases in compromised immune systems. Are you basically making the same point I am, that absense of durable immunity is the core problem, and once durable immunity is prevalent, this virus becomes much less of a threat?
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
bloom
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:46a, 3/31/20
We need the antibody test to determine who has been infected and recovered. I feel like this number is pretty significant. Think of all of the (especially under 40) people who have been sent home with a "you don't have the flu so it is just a virus" diagnosis since January.

The UK is all over this. I wish we were for the sake of our economy

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days
Reply Quote
2
thirdcoast
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to bloom • 8:52a, 3/31/20
AG
Yes we need mass antibody tests. But can't we do 2 things at once?

We have the ability NOW to test positives, retest to verify they are negative, then retest again to see if they go back positive after being exposed again in controlled study. I would bet you would have many minor/asymptomatic CV-19 Americans that would volunteer to participate, certainly enough that would sign the paperwork for cash.

Reply Quote
RGLAG85
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to thirdcoast • 9:08a, 3/31/20
AG
thirdcoast said:

I was also under the assumption this was a reoccurring type of corona virus like cold. They may not be able to mass test for antibodies, but considering how easily this spreads and how many are asymptomatic, it conceivable that 30-40-50+% of population could already have cleared it and built an immunity.

It's my understanding that complete hurd immunity occurs at 70% which they say will occur over a 3 year period absent vaccination. But, between 30-50% you see a fall off the cliff in infected and death rates. We're not seeing that yet.
Reply Quote
1
thirdcoast
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to RGLAG85 • 9:17a, 3/31/20
AG
Perhaps we would if we had testing much earlier. Not to mention that asymptomatic or mild symptoms aren't going in for testing. What percentage of the population has even been tested? 10% or less?
Reply Quote
BiochemAg97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to bloom • 9:29a, 3/31/20
AG
bloom said:
We need the antibody test to determine who has been infected and recovered. I feel like this number is pretty significant. Think of all of the (especially under 40) people who have been sent home with a "you don't have the flu so it is just a virus" diagnosis since January.

The UK is all over this. I wish we were for the sake of our economy

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days
It looks like that article was a big dose of fake news.

Here is the actual news from the UK govt.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-launches-new-drive-on-coronavirus-tests-for-frontline-nhs-staff

They are using Amazon to handle logistics for getting tests from healthcare workers to 3 big labs to do high throughput testing. And the test is a rtPCR test.
Reply Quote
2
BiochemAg97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to thirdcoast • 9:32a, 3/31/20
AG
thirdcoast said:
Perhaps we would if we had testing much earlier. Not to mention that asymptomatic or mild symptoms aren't going in for testing. What percentage of the population has even been tested? 10% or less?
What percentage of those tests come back positive. ~10% if you aren't in a hotspot. And those are patients with symptoms. In contrast, in NYC where the infection is raging, they are closer to 50-70% come back positive.

The testing results just don't fit a theory that everyone has it.
Reply Quote
6
1 edit
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BiochemAg97 • 11:33a, 3/31/20
AG
BiochemAg97 said:
Gizzards said:
It may be the case that durable immunity occurs after a Covid 19 infection, but only time will tell. First it will need to be determined how long the antibodies produced remain detectable. More importantly, just like influenza, will be the likelihood of virus mutations. This is why a new flu vaccine is recommended annually.
We have the data on the mutation rate. It is not like the flu. The parts of the virus recognized for immune response are highly conserved. In fact, polyclonal antibodies to SARS-CoV also recognize SARS-CoV2.
It should be pointed out, though, that the flu vaccine, while effective, involves a bit of 'art' and guesswork as to which strains to include in it yearly. As my skepticism of the WHO has ramped up a lot over the past few months I have more doubts about how this is managed. The decision for this fall's northern hemisphere contents was just made in February.
Reply Quote
Last Page
Page 1 of 3 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.