US Total Coronavirous Deaths

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AvidAggie
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4:38p, 4/1/20
AG
Below are total US CV deaths spaced in 10 day increments.

March 02: 6
March 12: 41
March 22: 414
April 01: 4,718 and counting

This means, based on the current rate, the total deaths increase by about a factor of 10 every 10 days. If this trend continues, we could see 50,000 US deaths by next Saturday (April 11).

Of course this is a guess based on latest trends, but I certainly hope we start flattening the curve SOON!
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Gunny456
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In reply to AvidAggie • 4:45p, 4/1/20
AG
Damn that is sobering. I'm thinking everybody is going to have to pray to perhaps get us out of this.
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Howdy 2010
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In reply to AvidAggie • 4:45p, 4/1/20
AG
AvidAggie said:
Below are total US CV deaths spaced in 10 day increments.

March 02: 6
March 12: 41
March 22: 414
April 01: 4,718 and counting

This means, based on the current rate, the total deaths increase by about a factor of 10 every 10 days. If this trend continues, we could see 50,000 US deaths by next Saturday (April 11).

Of course this is a guess based on latest trends, but I certainly hope we start flattening the curve SOON!


....we are...
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HumpitPuryear
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4:46p, 4/1/20
AG
(Sigh) Yeah it's crazy how confirmed infections and deaths escalated at precisely the same time that testing started.
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Old Buffalo
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4:47p, 4/1/20
AG
I posted this on another thread, but we are seeing some slowdown. It's important to focus on the positives.

Our growth rates have slowed dramatically.

Cases
1 day growth rate:
Current (3/31) - 15.3%
Peak (3/19) - 53.3%

3 day growth rate:
Current (3/31) - 15.0%
Peak (3/20) - 45.6%

7 day growth rate:
Current (3/31) - 18.3%
Peak (3/22) - 40.1%

Deaths
7 day rate:
Current (3/31) - 20.9%
Peak (3/24) - 32.0%

7 day CFR
Current (3/31) - 4.76%
Peak (pre 3/15) - 10.37%
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In reply to Howdy 2010 • 4:49p, 4/1/20
AG
Baba Booey said:
AvidAggie said:
Below are total US CV deaths spaced in 10 day increments.

March 02: 6
March 12: 41
March 22: 414
April 01: 4,718 and counting

This means, based on the current rate, the total deaths increase by about a factor of 10 every 10 days. If this trend continues, we could see 50,000 US deaths by next Saturday (April 11).

Of course this is a guess based on latest trends, but I certainly hope we start flattening the curve SOON!


....we are...
We are still seeing a 25% increase in deaths every day. That isn't the 100% increase once projected, but it isn't slowing down.
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AvidAggie
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In reply to Old Buffalo • 4:49p, 4/1/20
AG
That is certainly some good news. Hope it continues.
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cb1919
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4:50p, 4/1/20
AG
That would put us at more deaths (currently) than the rest of the world combined. Seems unlikely.
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Howdy 2010
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In reply to MTVs Celebrity Deathmatch • 4:51p, 4/1/20
AG
cityagboy said:
Baba Booey said:
AvidAggie said:
Below are total US CV deaths spaced in 10 day increments.

March 02: 6
March 12: 41
March 22: 414
April 01: 4,718 and counting

This means, based on the current rate, the total deaths increase by about a factor of 10 every 10 days. If this trend continues, we could see 50,000 US deaths by next Saturday (April 11).

Of course this is a guess based on latest trends, but I certainly hope we start flattening the curve SOON!


....we are...
We are still seeing a 25% increase in deaths every day. That isn't the 100% increase once projected, but it isn't slowing down.


The rate of increase is what's pertinent.....
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RandyAg98
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In reply to MTVs Celebrity Deathmatch • 4:54p, 4/1/20
AG
Deaths lag new cases by at least two weeks.
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AvidAggie
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In reply to cb1919 • 4:55p, 4/1/20
AG
The US currently has about 1/4 of all worldwide cases.
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In reply to RandyAg98 • 5:06p, 4/1/20
AG
For sure. But it is a more accurate reading than new cases because testing is so jacked up.

Our death timeline still matches the deaths of Italy when it is adjusted for population.

Maybe it is flattening some but the outcome still doesn't look good.
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DrEvazanPhD
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In reply to AvidAggie • 5:07p, 4/1/20
AvidAggie said:
The US currently has about 1/4 of all worldwide cases.


Because China fixed theirs, right?
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AvidAggie
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In reply to DrEvazanPhD • 5:08p, 4/1/20
AG
Fair enough. No one can convince me that China "only" had 80,000 cases
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Johnny2Fan
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5:26p, 4/1/20
The death rate will continue to climb but the deaths are also mostly from the confirmed cases. So the good news about confirmed cases slowing down is what's important here. Right?
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Infection_Ag11
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In reply to AvidAggie • 5:40p, 4/1/20
AG
Gunny456 said:
Damn that is sobering. I'm thinking everybody is going to have to pray to perhaps get us out of this.


I've never been heavily invested in prayer, something I should probably be more ashamed of than I am and something I suspect I'll regret later in life, but I've found myself talking to God nightly since this started for the first time since childhood. I've seen a lot of stuff across the years of life and medical training, but this pandemic and the thought of what it COULD do in a worst case scenario is one of the few things that has ever legitimately shaken me to this degree.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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5:43p, 4/1/20
AG
The death rate is what's important.

We are testing as many people as possible but the labs can't keep up with the testing kits. There have been failures on all levels at all stages in regards to testing.
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eidetic78
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In reply to HumpitPuryear • 5:51p, 4/1/20
AG
can't tell if this is sarcasm.

What does testing have to do with an escalation in deaths?

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Desert Fox
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In reply to cb1919 • 5:56p, 4/1/20
AG
cb1919 said:
That would put us at more deaths (currently) than the rest of the world combined. Seems unlikely.
China has at least a hundred times more deaths than they've reported.
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deadbq03
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In reply to eidetic78 • 6:03p, 4/1/20
AG
eidetic78 said:
can't tell if this is sarcasm.

What does testing have to do with an escalation in deaths?

Because without testing, a Covid death hits the books as pneumonia or something else. And I'd bet that farm that's happened.
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Howdy 2010
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In reply to MTVs Celebrity Deathmatch • 6:05p, 4/1/20
AG
cityagboy said:
The death rate is what's important.

We are testing as many people as possible but the labs can't keep up with the testing kits. There have been failures on all levels at all stages in regards to testing.


I don't think you know near as much as you seem to claim. You are wrong about the perception of this. The death increase rates are the most important things to watch and people who are much more in the know look at them as positive for now.
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CDub06
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In reply to AvidAggie • 6:09p, 4/1/20
AG
AvidAggie said:
The US has reported about 1/4 of all reported worldwide cases.


FIFY

The case number is a joke - both ours and worldwide. You can't forecast anything based on those numbers. The death numbers are the ones to watch domestically.
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In reply to Howdy 2010 • 6:24p, 4/1/20
AG
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
The death rate is what's important.

We are testing as many people as possible but the labs can't keep up with the testing kits. There have been failures on all levels at all stages in regards to testing.


I don't think you know near as much as you seem to claim. You are wrong about the perception of this. The death increase rates are the most important things to watch and people who are much more in the know look at them as positive for now.
Who is viewing it as positive? Maybe positive in that it isn't doubling every day like some thought was possible. We are still on pace for this to be very very bad. There are still going to be more cities get overwhelmed.
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oragator
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6:35p, 4/1/20
NY had 505 deaths today, the US had over 1000 according to worldometer.
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eidetic78
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In reply to deadbq03 • 6:50p, 4/1/20
AG
No doubt there are a handful of cases that have been misattributed as "viral pneumonia" or other such ambiguous designation due to the lack of a test result.

Do you think that number is so large that it's been masking the truth? Asked another way, if testing had been 100% available from the start, how many more coronavirus related deaths do you think we'd have? Genuine question, obviously no one actually knows. I'd wild-ass guess it's double digits.

Testing began to ramp up significantly about three weeks ago. However, around half of all people that have died from confirmed coronavirus infections in the US have died in the past ~3 days. That's what pushed me toward thinking the lack of testing early on probably hasn't had a significant impact on the total reported death numbers.


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Howdy 2010
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In reply to MTVs Celebrity Deathmatch • 6:52p, 4/1/20
AG
cityagboy said:
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
The death rate is what's important.

We are testing as many people as possible but the labs can't keep up with the testing kits. There have been failures on all levels at all stages in regards to testing.


I don't think you know near as much as you seem to claim. You are wrong about the perception of this. The death increase rates are the most important things to watch and people who are much more in the know look at them as positive for now.
Who is viewing it as positive? Maybe positive in that it isn't doubling every day like some thought was possible. We are still on pace for this to be very very bad. There are still going to be more cities get overwhelmed.


To argue like you, who said this thing wasn't going to be bad at all?

You know that real life is actually more than just black or white, right?
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cb1919
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In reply to AvidAggie • 6:56p, 4/1/20
AG
True but that would put us at about 1/2 of the deaths with about 1/4 of the cases.
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In reply to Howdy 2010 • 6:57p, 4/1/20
AG
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
The death rate is what's important.

We are testing as many people as possible but the labs can't keep up with the testing kits. There have been failures on all levels at all stages in regards to testing.


I don't think you know near as much as you seem to claim. You are wrong about the perception of this. The death increase rates are the most important things to watch and people who are much more in the know look at them as positive for now.
Who is viewing it as positive? Maybe positive in that it isn't doubling every day like some thought was possible. We are still on pace for this to be very very bad. There are still going to be more cities get overwhelmed.


To argue like you, who said this thing wasn't going to be bad at all?

You know that real life is actually more than just black or white, right?
Sorry, I view over 200,000 people dying as a failure. That isn't a success by any measure. Of course things aren't black and white, but WE all failed to take this seriously soon enough. We failed to start testing when we could have gotten in front of this.
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Howdy 2010
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In reply to MTVs Celebrity Deathmatch • 7:21p, 4/1/20
AG
cityagboy said:
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
The death rate is what's important.

We are testing as many people as possible but the labs can't keep up with the testing kits. There have been failures on all levels at all stages in regards to testing.


I don't think you know near as much as you seem to claim. You are wrong about the perception of this. The death increase rates are the most important things to watch and people who are much more in the know look at them as positive for now.
Who is viewing it as positive? Maybe positive in that it isn't doubling every day like some thought was possible. We are still on pace for this to be very very bad. There are still going to be more cities get overwhelmed.


To argue like you, who said this thing wasn't going to be bad at all?

You know that real life is actually more than just black or white, right?
Sorry, I view over 200,000 people dying as a failure. That isn't a success by any measure. Of course things aren't black and white, but WE all failed to take this seriously soon enough. We failed to start testing when we could have gotten in front of this.


Hmmmm.... what do you mean we? I and many others took this very seriously. There are millions of people banding together and working as a team to fight a disgusting pandemic, and you are focusing on the decision of a couple of people at the top.

You are clearly a very negative person, and you have every right to be.

However, in your earlier argument you are wrong. The trends to focus on are promising considering where they were predicted to be.

Maybe don't post so often in the future? Just a thought.
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In reply to Howdy 2010 • 7:23p, 4/1/20
AG
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
The death rate is what's important.

We are testing as many people as possible but the labs can't keep up with the testing kits. There have been failures on all levels at all stages in regards to testing.


I don't think you know near as much as you seem to claim. You are wrong about the perception of this. The death increase rates are the most important things to watch and people who are much more in the know look at them as positive for now.
Who is viewing it as positive? Maybe positive in that it isn't doubling every day like some thought was possible. We are still on pace for this to be very very bad. There are still going to be more cities get overwhelmed.


To argue like you, who said this thing wasn't going to be bad at all?

You know that real life is actually more than just black or white, right?
Sorry, I view over 200,000 people dying as a failure. That isn't a success by any measure. Of course things aren't black and white, but WE all failed to take this seriously soon enough. We failed to start testing when we could have gotten in front of this.


Hmmmm.... what do you mean we? I and many others took this very seriously. There are millions of people banding together and working as a team to fight a disgusting pandemic, and you are focusing on the decision of a couple of people at the top.

You are clearly a very negative person, and you have every right to be.

However, in your earlier argument you are wrong. The trends to focus on are promising considering where they were predicted to be.

Maybe don't post so often in the future? Just a thought.
You are very condescending.

WE did not take this seriously when we should have. Scientists warned us of this in Jan/ Feb but WE ALL ignored it then. Yes, many people have been taking this seriously the last 2 1/2 weeks.
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Howdy 2010
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In reply to MTVs Celebrity Deathmatch • 7:29p, 4/1/20
AG
cityagboy said:
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
Baba Booey said:
cityagboy said:
The death rate is what's important.

We are testing as many people as possible but the labs can't keep up with the testing kits. There have been failures on all levels at all stages in regards to testing.


I don't think you know near as much as you seem to claim. You are wrong about the perception of this. The death increase rates are the most important things to watch and people who are much more in the know look at them as positive for now.
Who is viewing it as positive? Maybe positive in that it isn't doubling every day like some thought was possible. We are still on pace for this to be very very bad. There are still going to be more cities get overwhelmed.


To argue like you, who said this thing wasn't going to be bad at all?

You know that real life is actually more than just black or white, right?
Sorry, I view over 200,000 people dying as a failure. That isn't a success by any measure. Of course things aren't black and white, but WE all failed to take this seriously soon enough. We failed to start testing when we could have gotten in front of this.


Hmmmm.... what do you mean we? I and many others took this very seriously. There are millions of people banding together and working as a team to fight a disgusting pandemic, and you are focusing on the decision of a couple of people at the top.

You are clearly a very negative person, and you have every right to be.

However, in your earlier argument you are wrong. The trends to focus on are promising considering where they were predicted to be.

Maybe don't post so often in the future? Just a thought.
You are very condescending.

WE did not take this seriously when we should have. Scientists warned us of this in Jan/ Feb but WE ALL ignored it then. Yes, many people have been taking this seriously the last 2 1/2 weeks.


You don't speak for everyone to constitute a "we". You can say "you" and that's it. Just like you have an OPINION that things are bleak.

It's your choice to have an unnecessarily-over-the-top-negative outlook.

Like I said, maybe you don't need to share your opinions as much. That's all.
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culdeus
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In reply to CDub06 • 7:31p, 4/1/20
AG
CDub06 said:
AvidAggie said:
The US has reported about 1/4 of all reported worldwide cases.


FIFY

The case number is a joke - both ours and worldwide. You can't forecast anything based on those numbers. The death numbers are the ones to watch domestically.
Has anyone tried to equate deaths to cases? Like 1 death today means there are 150 cases floating round? (note this is not a number, pulled straight out of ass)
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to AvidAggie • 7:37p, 4/1/20
AG
AvidAggie said:
Below are total US CV deaths spaced in 10 day increments.

March 02: 6
March 12: 41
March 22: 414
April 01: 4,718 and counting

This means, based on the current rate, the total deaths increase by about a factor of 10 every 10 days. If this trend continues, we could see 50,000 US deaths by next Saturday (April 11).

Of course this is a guess based on latest trends, but I certainly hope we start flattening the curve SOON!


This is consistent with the projection being used by the White House.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Daily deaths should peak on April 16th and then start declining. Hit 50,000 deaths on April 22.
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to culdeus • 7:42p, 4/1/20
AG
culdeus said:
CDub06 said:
AvidAggie said:
The US has reported about 1/4 of all reported worldwide cases.


FIFY

The case number is a joke - both ours and worldwide. You can't forecast anything based on those numbers. The death numbers are the ones to watch domestically.
Has anyone tried to equate deaths to cases? Like 1 death today means there are 150 cases floating round? (note this is not a number, pulled straight out of ass)


1 death today probably equates to 100-150 cases two weeks ago since death lags onset of the infection. So 2 weeks ago we probably had closer to 400,000 cumulative cases or 40x the number of reported cases. Obviously not precise but ballpark.

Fair to say we have way more than the 200,000 cumulative cases that are being reported today. That number is probably off by at least a factor of 10.
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eidetic78
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7:44p, 4/1/20
AG
This is probably a way too late post, but I've seen people comparing SARS-CoV-2 to the H1N1 swine flu epidemic, here are some numbers that give good perspective:

The "60 million" infected with H1N1 are estimates done after the fact using serological testing data and encompass ~18 months of time. Those same numbers will of course be generated in the years to come for this virus.

So it's not appropriate to compare "confirmed" cases of coronavirus to "estimated" flu cases.

For something a little more fair (though still not completely):

The total number of laboratory confirmed H1N1 cases in all of the America's (not just the US) before the WHO started tracking only deaths, was ~191,000 cases. And that represented 7 months of testing for H1N1 (May - Nov '09).

We've already surpassed that number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in far less time.
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