a ten fold increase in tendays means a doubling every 2-3 days.
People in charge decided that outcome was too horrible to risk and put in all the sip and social distancing hopefully the doubling will slow down to every 5 days

Baba Booey said:

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Ag Defense Rules said:

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The US only has 327M people.

At the OPs rates, we will run out by the end of April.

Doubtful.

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Exactly.... too many posters here trying to paint a bleak-end of the world picture... it's insane.

This pandemic is nasty enough, no need to embellish and make it sound worse than it already is.

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I never said it would continue like this endlessly. This is kind of a straw man argument. Of course it won't. All I did was take it one interval further cause it's something I noticed.

Our first official 1,000 death day today. About 1,100 actually.

Baba Booey said:

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Ag Defense Rules said:

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The US only has 327M people.

At the OPs rates, we will run out by the end of April.

Doubtful.

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Exactly.... too many posters here trying to paint a bleak-end of the world picture... it's insane.

This pandemic is nasty enough, no need to embellish and make it sound worse than it already is.

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It makes no sense, but it's been that way since January.

The worst is when people quote an old post so they can have their "see, I told you so" moment such as now that 1000 people died today.

The exponential growth up until now is a fact, not fear mongering. It's because the number of people infected on a given day is directly related to how many people already have it.

Obviously it wouldn't increase forever. As the population becomes more and more infected, the amount of uninfected people to expose is reduced. Thus, it doesn't form an exponential curve, it forms a logistic curve.

This video explains it pretty well. As you can see, there is a N/Pop figure in there, which starts at 0 when the percentage of the population that has the disease is miniscule but grows as more and more of the population gets the disease and reduces the exponential growth factor.


As for the relavancy of pointing out the exponential growth, this was very relevant when trying to defend the need to shelter in place. Many of my friends and relatives would say things like, only 400 people infected and 20 people dead and people are freaking out over nothing! Look how many people die in car accidents! The exponential growth component was the justification for the extreme actions done while the death toll was still very low.

I take no victory laps on this matter at all. I hope this abates quickly and we can get on with our lives. In addition to worrying about the virus, I worry about the economic impacts not just on myself and my family but everybody I know. Every day feels like an eternity for people who I know are having to sit out without income. That's why I favor decisive and aggressive action to squash the virus as soon as possible and not to let it fester with half actions.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Gunny456 said:

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Damn that is sobering. I'm thinking everybody is going to have to pray to perhaps get us out of this.

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I've never been heavily invested in prayer, something I should probably be more ashamed of than I am and something I suspect I'll regret later in life, but I've found myself talking to God nightly since this started for the first time since childhood. I've seen a lot of stuff across the years of life and medical training, but this pandemic and the thought of what it COULD do in a worst case scenario is one of the few things that has ever legitimately shaken me to this degree.

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Thanks for the transparency. Thanks for your contribution.

Good for you sir. I applaud you for that and respect the heck out of you for saying that. I know prayer works. I am living proof of it. I just need to pray more. I truly feel more and more each day that we need to as much as we can.
Thanks also for your informative post.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Gunny456 said:

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Damn that is sobering. I'm thinking everybody is going to have to pray to perhaps get us out of this.

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I've never been heavily invested in prayer, something I should probably be more ashamed of than I am and something I suspect I'll regret later in life, but I've found myself talking to God nightly since this started for the first time since childhood. I've seen a lot of stuff across the years of life and medical training, but this pandemic and the thought of what it COULD do in a worst case scenario is one of the few things that has ever legitimately shaken me to this degree.

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I am right there with you. This has already surpassed my worst projections, and it is just in the second inning. My dearest loved ones also happen to be at high risk, but at least I am able to protect them at the present time. I keep praying for miracles, no matter how small.

Gumby said:

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AvidAggie said:

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Below are total US CV deaths spaced in 10 day increments.

March 02: 6
March 12: 41
March 22: 414
April 01: 4,718 and counting

This means, based on the current rate, the total deaths increase by about a factor of 10 every 10 days. If this trend continues, we could see 50,000 US deaths by next Saturday (April 11).

Of course this is a guess based on latest trends, but I certainly hope we start flattening the curve SOON!

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This is consistent with the projection being used by the White House.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Daily deaths should peak on April 16th and then start declining. Hit 50,000 deaths on April 22.

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Going to be a LONG three weeks.

I'm not sure this rosy prediction is accurate. On this day when C19 killed 1,000 people, slightly less than half of them lived in New York. I think that's the first time that's happened. The rest of America is starting to climb the slope.

Baba Booey said:

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Ag Defense Rules said:

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The US only has 327M people.

At the OPs rates, we will run out by the end of April.

Doubtful.

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Exactly.... too many posters here trying to paint a bleak-end of the world picture... it's insane.

This pandemic is nasty enough, no need to embellish and make it sound worse than it already is.

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OP's rate is about correct, but there is no telling when we hit the logistic inflection point and begin to see growth rate reduction. Growth will not continue forever, but it is certainly still keeping pace. Italy has been locked down far harder than we have and for longer, and they're just staying to see sustained reductions in growth rate. The peak for them is still aways away, but at least it's in sight.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Baba Booey said:

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Ag Defense Rules said:

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The US only has 327M people.

At the OPs rates, we will run out by the end of April.

Doubtful.

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Exactly.... too many posters here trying to paint a bleak-end of the world picture... it's insane.

This pandemic is nasty enough, no need to embellish and make it sound worse than it already is.

---

OP's rate is about correct, but there is no telling when we hit the logistic inflection point and begin to see growth rate reduction. Growth will not continue forever, but it is certainly still keeping pace. Italy has been locked down far harder than we have and for longer, and they're just staying to see sustained reductions in growth rate. The peak for them is still aways away, but at least it's in sight.

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So is ours.

Baba Booey said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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Baba Booey said:

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Ag Defense Rules said:

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The US only has 327M people.

At the OPs rates, we will run out by the end of April.

Doubtful.

---

Exactly.... too many posters here trying to paint a bleak-end of the world picture... it's insane.

This pandemic is nasty enough, no need to embellish and make it sound worse than it already is.

---

OP's rate is about correct, but there is no telling when we hit the logistic inflection point and begin to see growth rate reduction. Growth will not continue forever, but it is certainly still keeping pace. Italy has been locked down far harder than we have and for longer, and they're just staying to see sustained reductions in growth rate. The peak for them is still aways away, but at least it's in sight.

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So is ours.

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Hopefully, but we are not seeing sustained growth rate reductions yet. The rate reductions we have seen can be attributed to variance.

Certainly flattened the death curve

I think the theory is 1,000 cases per death if you are having a 0.1% fatality rate. That's the flu fatality rate. CV19 is likely much higher so that's a conservative rate.

If you use that theory we have approx 20, 577, 000 current cases given we have 20,577 deaths.

While the death per capita is a lot lower here still than other countries like Italy and Spain, if NY State was its own country it would have the highest per capita deaths in the world. Found that surprising.