Hypothetical Numbers game of the day: What are the odds???

Over a one year period, Average American in a large metroplex area: (example DFW)

Odds of catching virus with no social distancing? lets go with 40% ?

Odds of catching virus with social distancing, full lockdown? lets go with < 1% ?

Odds of catching virus with social distancing, no lockdown? lets go with 10% ?


The absolute fatality rate would need to be multiplied by the odds of catching virus to reveal actual real world odds of fatality by Wuhan virus for the average citizen.

What are some opinions from the doctors on TexAgs?

I was wondering the same - e.g. if 1 in 10000 texans have the virus, then in theory wouldnt any place that sees 300 people a day almost certainly have virus in the air/on surfaces? That would mean basically every gas station or grocery store if so.

cbr said:

---

I was wondering the same - e.g. if 1 in 10000 texans have the virus, then in theory wouldnt any place that sees 300 people a day almost certainly have virus in the air/on surfaces? That would mean basically every gas station or grocery store if so.

---

How are you going from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 300? (honestly asking, not trying to be snarky)

I had seen a graph a couple of weeks ago, that after you are exposed to over 50-100 people, you are something like 90% chance of being exposed to it. Thus the need for social distancing. Most of us were probably exposed to that in a day. Now, somedays we are exposed to 0, some days 1 - 10 people. So, I can see how social distancing can help slow it down.

Exposed does not mean catching it.

We do not know the exposure rate and we don't know the conversion rate of exposure and infection. Then we don't know the conversion of infection to symptoms.

JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

---

cbr said:

---

I was wondering the same - e.g. if 1 in 10000 texans have the virus, then in theory wouldnt any place that sees 300 people a day almost certainly have virus in the air/on surfaces? That would mean basically every gas station or grocery store if so.

---

How are you going from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 300? (honestly asking, not trying to be snarky)

---

31 x 300 = 9300 = ballpark

Its not meant to be highly accurate, it just occurred to me that the virus at this point probably actually is present at just about every public place, in some area and some concentration. I found the concept startling.

UNT Health Science Center had some predicative modeling yesterday where by the 2nd week in May, FW would have had 43% COVID-19 Positive (roughly 360K), 10% hospitalization rate (only 5600 beds), & 1-3% of the hospitalization would succumb to the disease. Hope they are way off!