Link in tweet for graphic
Edit to say it is comparing the daily number to the average daily number of leading causes of death.
How many days until it is the leading cause?
Graphic of COvID related deaths compared to all other causes by day.
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Last: 5 yr ago by TheAngelFlight
Link in tweet for graphic
Edit to say it is comparing the daily number to the average daily number of leading causes of death.
How many days until it is the leading cause?
Blew past the flu like it was standing still.
But but but it's just another flu
:|
:|
I'm sure it won't be long before someone comes in and says more people still die of cancer or heart disease and ignore the fact these deaths are still growing.
Notice that accidents remained unchanged. Obviously inaccurate data because almost nobody is driving. This is a very serious health situation with for sure. I'm not down playing the fact. However over 100,000 people die world wide every MONTH in auto accidents and that's not even close to happening right now.
Just pointing out there was an agenda, at least to the point of compromising part of the data when posting that tweet.
None of the other's changed, so I take it they were using averages for the rest.LesterHaze said:
Notice that accidents remained unchanged. Obviously inaccurate data because almost nobody is driving. This is a very serious health situation with for sure. I'm not down playing the fact. However over 100,000 people die world wide every MONTH in auto accidents and that's not even close to happening right now.
Just pointing out there was an agenda, at least to the point of compromising part of the data when posting that tweet.
Some times things are just imperfect, and not necessarily the product of an "agenda", however. And I'm not sure how not lowering auto deaths furthers the agenda you seem to be suggesting exists.
LesterHaze said:
Notice that accidents remained unchanged. Obviously inaccurate data because almost nobody is driving. This is a very serious health situation with for sure. I'm not down playing the fact. However over 100,000 people die world wide every MONTH in auto accidents and that's not even close to happening right now.
Just pointing out there was an agenda, at least to the point of compromising part of the data when posting that tweet.
Read my post.
Not disputing the significance of that graph, but as it leaves several causes of death off, I think it's worth considering all causes of death for perspective.
According to www.worldometers.info as of the time of this posting;
11,174,783 Abortions this year
3,412,684 sexually transmitted diseases deaths this year
2,159,331 Cancer deaths this year
1,314,441 Smoking related deaths this year
657,556 Alcohol related deaths this year
441,332 HIV/AIDS deaths this year
354,901 traffic accidents deaths this year
257,879 Malaria deaths this year
281,930 suicides this year
127,636 Flu deaths this year
69,467 COVID deaths this years
these numbers are world wide, and I have no doubt that COVID deaths will crack the top 10 (and probably the top 7 or 8) in the coming days or weeks, but as presented in that graphic, I think it's misleading.
https://www.worldometers.info/
According to www.worldometers.info as of the time of this posting;
11,174,783 Abortions this year
3,412,684 sexually transmitted diseases deaths this year
2,159,331 Cancer deaths this year
1,314,441 Smoking related deaths this year
657,556 Alcohol related deaths this year
441,332 HIV/AIDS deaths this year
354,901 traffic accidents deaths this year
257,879 Malaria deaths this year
281,930 suicides this year
127,636 Flu deaths this year
69,467 COVID deaths this years
these numbers are world wide, and I have no doubt that COVID deaths will crack the top 10 (and probably the top 7 or 8) in the coming days or weeks, but as presented in that graphic, I think it's misleading.
https://www.worldometers.info/
Thomas Ford 91 said:
Blew past the flu like it was standing still.
Well the flu number is the average for the year, if you took that number and compressed it down to just a 13 week flu season it would be 614. So the whole chart is a bit misleading. (I'm not to saying this isn't worse than the flu)
Good information.
Let's shut down the US until no one dies of anything.
Of course, we will all be homeless, no power, no lighting, no medicine, no education, no retirement, no food, no movies, no internet, no cars. But we will save every single life - until we can't.
Then life expectancy can go down to 20-25 years.
Let's shut down the US until no one dies of anything.
Of course, we will all be homeless, no power, no lighting, no medicine, no education, no retirement, no food, no movies, no internet, no cars. But we will save every single life - until we can't.
Then life expectancy can go down to 20-25 years.
redd38 said:Thomas Ford 91 said:
Blew past the flu like it was standing still.
Well the flu number is the average for the year, if you took that number and compressed it down to just a 13 week flu season it would be 614. So the whole chart is a bit misleading. (I'm not to saying this isn't worse than the flu)
Exactly.
The chart is terrible.
If we assume the new 80,000 death rate is the new best guess than the daily average for a year would be 219. That puts it just above the flu.
One thing I would be interested in hearing about is what would the flu impact be if we didn't have the flu vaccine and didn't have pretty effective treatments for when people get it?PFG said:
But but but it's just another flu
:|
Could it be that this is similar to what impact the flu would have if we didn't have vaccines and didn't really know how to treat it?
"If we assume"......AgLiving06 said:redd38 said:Thomas Ford 91 said:
Blew past the flu like it was standing still.
Well the flu number is the average for the year, if you took that number and compressed it down to just a 13 week flu season it would be 614. So the whole chart is a bit misleading. (I'm not to saying this isn't worse than the flu)
Exactly.
The chart is terrible.
If we assume the new 80,000 death rate is the new best guess than the daily average for a year would be 219. That puts it just above the flu.
I believe that number is thought to be the new best estimate for US deaths.RoyVal said:"If we assume"......AgLiving06 said:redd38 said:Thomas Ford 91 said:
Blew past the flu like it was standing still.
Well the flu number is the average for the year, if you took that number and compressed it down to just a 13 week flu season it would be 614. So the whole chart is a bit misleading. (I'm not to saying this isn't worse than the flu)
Exactly.
The chart is terrible.
If we assume the new 80,000 death rate is the new best guess than the daily average for a year would be 219. That puts it just above the flu.
A very polarizing subject the OP posted. If you are to look at this from a purely data driven perspective, there are many flaws in the way the data is presented as all deaths other than COVID-19 look to be averaged over the course of a year where CV-19 is actuals and not averaged annually.
There is also another major issue that I have pointed out on another topic forum. This data does not represent a delta of deaths versus historical averages. The model assumes that CV-19 deaths would happen in addition to the historical averages, but the data form China, Italy and some preliminary data from New York shows that a substantial amount of CV-19 deaths are with individuals that had underlying issues (50% in Italy had 3 or more). The CDC data for March 8th and later is not 100% accurate yet so it would be near impossible to determine the actual impact CV-19 is having to death rate just yet, but there is more than likely overlap in the deaths that would have occured with underlying issues only had CV-19 not been a factor in mortality.
There is also another major issue that I have pointed out on another topic forum. This data does not represent a delta of deaths versus historical averages. The model assumes that CV-19 deaths would happen in addition to the historical averages, but the data form China, Italy and some preliminary data from New York shows that a substantial amount of CV-19 deaths are with individuals that had underlying issues (50% in Italy had 3 or more). The CDC data for March 8th and later is not 100% accurate yet so it would be near impossible to determine the actual impact CV-19 is having to death rate just yet, but there is more than likely overlap in the deaths that would have occured with underlying issues only had CV-19 not been a factor in mortality.
I *think* what he is implying is if you took auto daily auto deathers per day over a period of time and the compare maybe current (auto + COVID)...you would be consistent with the historical auto only. For every new COVID death, you have less auto deaths b/c fewer people are driving...TXAggie2011 said:None of the other's changed, so I take it they were using averages for the rest.LesterHaze said:
Notice that accidents remained unchanged. Obviously inaccurate data because almost nobody is driving. This is a very serious health situation with for sure. I'm not down playing the fact. However over 100,000 people die world wide every MONTH in auto accidents and that's not even close to happening right now.
Just pointing out there was an agenda, at least to the point of compromising part of the data when posting that tweet.
Some times things are just imperfect, and not necessarily the product of an "agenda", however. And I'm not sure how not lowering auto deaths furthers the agenda you seem to be suggesting exists.
This seems like a thread for forum 16 tbh. I mean someone is trying to toss an abortion hand grenade in FFS.
"Just a little worse than the flu" is exactly where this will end up.AgLiving06 said:redd38 said:Thomas Ford 91 said:
Blew past the flu like it was standing still.
Well the flu number is the average for the year, if you took that number and compressed it down to just a 13 week flu season it would be 614. So the whole chart is a bit misleading. (I'm not to saying this isn't worse than the flu)
Exactly.
The chart is terrible.
If we assume the new 80,000 death rate is the new best guess than the daily average for a year would be 219. That puts it just above the flu.
Jack Boyett said:"Just a little worse than the flu" is exactly where this will end up.AgLiving06 said:redd38 said:Thomas Ford 91 said:
Blew past the flu like it was standing still.
Well the flu number is the average for the year, if you took that number and compressed it down to just a 13 week flu season it would be 614. So the whole chart is a bit misleading. (I'm not to saying this isn't worse than the flu)
Exactly.
The chart is terrible.
If we assume the new 80,000 death rate is the new best guess than the daily average for a year would be 219. That puts it just above the flu.
Because we finally started taking this seriously.
That's like saying that a world class runner "barely beat me" in a 10k when he was wearing a 100lb weight vest the whole time.
This board can't melt down about the "draconian" measures being taken and how terrible and overreactive they are, and then pretend they don't exist when comparing results.
GE said:One thing I would be interested in hearing about is what would the flu impact be if we didn't have the flu vaccine and didn't have pretty effective treatments for when people get it?PFG said:
But but but it's just another flu
:|
Could it be that this is similar to what impact the flu would have if we didn't have vaccines and didn't really know how to treat it?
Would the flu kill anybody if we were under the current stay at home orders?
That data should become available.PJYoung said:GE said:One thing I would be interested in hearing about is what would the flu impact be if we didn't have the flu vaccine and didn't have pretty effective treatments for when people get it?PFG said:
But but but it's just another flu
:|
Could it be that this is similar to what impact the flu would have if we didn't have vaccines and didn't really know how to treat it?
Would the flu kill anybody if we were under the current stay at home orders?
The CDC has already released #s for the beginning of March and yes, flu #s disappeared but it was close to the end of flu season anyway.GE said:That data should become available.PJYoung said:GE said:One thing I would be interested in hearing about is what would the flu impact be if we didn't have the flu vaccine and didn't have pretty effective treatments for when people get it?PFG said:
But but but it's just another flu
:|
Could it be that this is similar to what impact the flu would have if we didn't have vaccines and didn't really know how to treat it?
Would the flu kill anybody if we were under the current stay at home orders?
Good point. Do you know what it looks like year over year compared to '19 for March?PJYoung said:The CDC has already released #s for the beginning of March and yes, flu #s disappeared but it was close to the end of flu season anyway.GE said:That data should become available.PJYoung said:GE said:One thing I would be interested in hearing about is what would the flu impact be if we didn't have the flu vaccine and didn't have pretty effective treatments for when people get it?PFG said:
But but but it's just another flu
:|
Could it be that this is similar to what impact the flu would have if we didn't have vaccines and didn't really know how to treat it?
Would the flu kill anybody if we were under the current stay at home orders?
The problem with comparing something like auto-accidents is, yes, people die from auto-accidents.LesterHaze said:
Notice that accidents remained unchanged. Obviously inaccurate data because almost nobody is driving. This is a very serious health situation with for sure. I'm not down playing the fact. However over 100,000 people die world wide every MONTH in auto accidents and that's not even close to happening right now.
Just pointing out there was an agenda, at least to the point of compromising part of the data when posting that tweet.
But....
A) you don't have 'contagious outbreaks' of auto-accidents in a specific city or region where thousands of people are killing themselves in auto-accidents over a really short-time frame overwhelming the local hospital system. The occurrences of auto-accidents is dispersed over the year, random, and statistically predictable that hospitals can plan for them.
B) the medical community is not in danger themselves from getting 'infected' by auto-accident victims (those still living) when they arrive to the hospital. You don't have to worry about medical folks getting seriously sick or killed themselves in an auto-accident because they treated an auto-accident victim
So, folks, the 'more people die in auto-accidents stuff' that I know gets thrown around in social media...we are all educated here (I think) and know a contagious infectious disease with no vaccine and something like auto-mobile accidents are totally different issues. The former can be a severe threat to overwhelming a healthcare system The latter is not.
here is the year over year comparison in a few plots. basically, yes, this year's flu season was already in the decline phase, but you can see where in other years, after an initial steep decline, the drop becomes more gradual, this year's social distancing appears to have let the drop in flu cases to remain in a sharp decline pattern much longer. You can see it in both the weekly cases and the sharp bend over on cumulative cases plotGE said:Good point. Do you know what it looks like year over year compared to '19 for March?PJYoung said:The CDC has already released #s for the beginning of March and yes, flu #s disappeared but it was close to the end of flu season anyway.GE said:That data should become available.PJYoung said:GE said:One thing I would be interested in hearing about is what would the flu impact be if we didn't have the flu vaccine and didn't have pretty effective treatments for when people get it?PFG said:
But but but it's just another flu
:|
Could it be that this is similar to what impact the flu would have if we didn't have vaccines and didn't really know how to treat it?
Would the flu kill anybody if we were under the current stay at home orders?
since this year was already going to be a bad flu year and the bulk of cases had already happened, i plotted cumulative cases from the week of flu season we started social distancing steps in a serious way forward for each year, just to get a better comparison of just what the effects of the social distancing were. as you can see, it should put the flu cases well below the later part of even a mild flu season.
This problem has been as much about when the deaths occur as how many.AgLiving06 said:redd38 said:Thomas Ford 91 said:
Blew past the flu like it was standing still.
Well the flu number is the average for the year, if you took that number and compressed it down to just a 13 week flu season it would be 614. So the whole chart is a bit misleading. (I'm not to saying this isn't worse than the flu)
Exactly.
The chart is terrible.
If we assume the new 80,000 death rate is the new best guess than the daily average for a year would be 219. That puts it just above the flu.
Trying to avoid 80,000 getting sick and needing ICU in a single month, exceeding hospital capacity and thus causing a lot of extra deaths, not only from COVID but from regular other cases simply because there was no medical care available.
But we all know this. It has been said a billion times. It's about 'flattening the curve'.
Flu has a curve too. But since COVID appears to be significantly more contagious than the flu (largely because of asymptomatic carriers) and because there is no vaccine like for the flu (which at minimum would protect doctors and nurses), the COVID curve is a lot scarier looking thus we are in this present state.
the video in the OP as has already been mentioned isn't a completely fair look. it is taking each cause of death and expressing the annual total as a daily average and then comparing COVID's individual daily totals to that. it makes the point but also is a tad alarmist in the way the data looks. here is another look comparing these data points to COVID's running daily average death count. i did the daily average saying day 1 was the first day above 10 deaths. so yesterday was day 33 with 9616 total deaths. here is that plot
The graph is a striking visual, although really just a party trick since it's comparing apples to oranges and a dynamic data set against stagnant data sets of a different time period. However, I'd love to see that graph in a year of two when it can include all monthly numbers for all causes of death, to see not only the true impact of COVID but also how it impacted the averages for other causes of death. Because like other people have pointed out, the shutdowns have helped slow the spread of COVID (a good thing!) and have as a side effect kept millions of people off the road. And at least a few of the people who have died of COVID would also have died of heart disease or cancer this year, among other conditions. Heck, just the total shutdown of elective surgeries has saved a few lives by preventing surgical complications.
None of that is the argue the COVID is not dangerous or that we're worrying unnecessarily. The hospitalization impact of COVID is clearly much worse than those other diseases and unlike cancer, auto accidents and heart disease, COVID gets your healthcare providers sick too. The shutdowns and lockdowns are helping while medical science gets its brains around this disease and hopefully figures out some mitigation strategies and someday a vaccine.
Long term, when we have full datasets for mortality by regions and states, this will be fascinating to compare.
None of that is the argue the COVID is not dangerous or that we're worrying unnecessarily. The hospitalization impact of COVID is clearly much worse than those other diseases and unlike cancer, auto accidents and heart disease, COVID gets your healthcare providers sick too. The shutdowns and lockdowns are helping while medical science gets its brains around this disease and hopefully figures out some mitigation strategies and someday a vaccine.
Long term, when we have full datasets for mortality by regions and states, this will be fascinating to compare.
PFG said:
But but but it's just another flu
:|
This year will be one of the mildest flu seasons in some time. Not to mention, these dates are when flu starts to drop off.
Let's just wait and see where we land by July 1 and compare Covid to a peak Flu season.
The OP chart would be much more telling by showing how each category changes by week. Total mortality is decreasing, so what groups are decreasing if covid is increasing? If heart disease and cancer are decreasing, then it would be indicative of incorrect attribution for covid. Meaning, saying covid is cause of death but isn't.
This is interesting as well.
Growing delta from the start of the year to the past trendlines in Pneumonia CoDs as the cases of coronavirus grows
Is a positive SARS-COV-2 test required to count toward being a COV19 death?
I've read that the CDC is instructing that it is not the case...so are some people dying of pneumonia maybe not COV19 deaths? Or would these people died of pneumonia anyway and are just being counted differently?
Growing delta from the start of the year to the past trendlines in Pneumonia CoDs as the cases of coronavirus grows
Is a positive SARS-COV-2 test required to count toward being a COV19 death?
I've read that the CDC is instructing that it is not the case...so are some people dying of pneumonia maybe not COV19 deaths? Or would these people died of pneumonia anyway and are just being counted differently?
Take out >70yo's and never reach leading cause or any ranking of significance.5StarShield said:
Link in tweet for graphic
Edit to say it is comparing the daily number to the average daily number of leading causes of death.
How many days until it is the leading cause?
Take them out and you also see massive drops in numbers across flu, stroke, heart disease, Alzheimers, etc.law-apt-3g said:Take out >70yo's and never reach leading cause or any ranking of significance.5StarShield said:
Link in tweet for graphic
Edit to say it is comparing the daily number to the average daily number of leading causes of death.
How many days until it is the leading cause?
Your schtick gets old really quickly.
exactly. in 2017 & 2018 there were a combined 5,589,903 confirmed deaths in the US. Of that group roughly 3,628,973 were >70 (i say roughly because i just split the 65-74 age group in half). so roughly 65% of ALL DEATHs in the USA are >70 yo'sfig96 said:Take them out and you also see massive drops in numbers across flu, stroke, heart disease, Alzheimers, etc.law-apt-3g said:Take out >70yo's and never reach leading cause or any ranking of significance.5StarShield said:
Link in tweet for graphic
Edit to say it is comparing the daily number to the average daily number of leading causes of death.
How many days until it is the leading cause?
Your schtick gets old really quickly.
LesterHaze said:
Notice that accidents remained unchanged. Obviously inaccurate data because almost nobody is driving. This is a very serious health situation with for sure. I'm not down playing the fact. However over 100,000 people die world wide every MONTH in auto accidents and that's not even close to happening right now.
Just pointing out there was an agenda, at least to the point of compromising part of the data when posting that tweet.
When is the last time weekly deaths from auto accidents increased by a factor of 100 in only 3 weeks?
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