Hopeful news out of Washington State

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TXTransplant
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9:05a, 4/6/20
From KHOU.com

Quote:
APRIL 6 5:30 a.m. Washington state returning 400 ventilators to go to harder-hit states: Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said the state will return more than 400 ventilators of the 500 it has received from the federal government so they can go to New York and other states hit harder by the coronavirus. The Democratic governor said Sunday that his statewide stay-at-home order and weeks of social distancing have led to slower rates of infections and deaths in Washington. Get more national/world updates here.


Link to full article

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/3F69D3A6-77B0-11EA-88E8-167265D730BA

Another link

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/washington-sending-over-400-ventilators-for-non-coronavirus-patients-to-new-york-harder-hit-states/%3famp=1

Quote:
Hospitalizations for patients with COVID-19-like illnesses declined by more than 20% in Washington in the last week of March, a small hopeful sign.

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Dddfff
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9:06a, 4/6/20
AG
We are about to have way more TP, PPE and vents than we'll ever need.
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TXTransplant
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In reply to Cancelled • 9:13a, 4/6/20
queso1 said:
This is not at all turning out how certain people wan...



Never mind


I can't speak for anyone else, but this is exactly the news I've been waiting for three weeks to hear. I'm fine with social distancing/isolating if it keeps this from spreading and overwhelming our hospitals.

I don't want to know what worst-case scenario looks like here.
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Bottlerocket
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In reply to TXTransplant • 9:17a, 4/6/20
AG
Agreed!!!
________________________________________________________
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bay fan
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In reply to Cancelled • 9:34a, 4/6/20
S
queso1 said:
LThis is not at all turning out how certain people wan...



Never mind
Not sure what your talking about but I hope outcomes like this help people understand stay home and always social distance will be best medicine from this Corona virus. Excellent news.
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MRB10
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9:35a, 4/6/20
AG
Love the teamwork. This makes me hopeful despite personal political leanings and feelings towards the state in general.
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ETFan
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In reply to Cancelled • 10:07a, 4/6/20
queso1 said:
This is not at all turning out how certain people wan...



Never mind


And as predicted, drastic measures leading to good outcomes will be misconstrued by 'those people'. Unbelievable that there are people that still don't get it.
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Ag Defense Rules
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11:19a, 4/6/20
AG
There is sufficient information for an educated person to consider the possibility that many of the drastic measures implemented for 90% of the US may have been overkill. Certainly needed for NYC, New Orleans, etc.

If it turns out that we don't Get 250K deaths in the US, it may not just be because we took drastic measures. It may be that this wasn't as deadly as some have pushed.
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chimpanzee
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11:52a, 4/6/20
Both sides are requiring those that disagree with them to prove a negative before they will change their minds. Internet "debate" is living down to expectations, even on this.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Ag Defense Rules • 12:00p, 4/6/20
AG
Ag Defense Rules said:
There is sufficient information for an educated person to consider the possibility that many of the drastic measures implemented for 90% of the US may have been overkill. Certainly needed for NYC, New Orleans, etc.

If it turns out that we don't Get 250K deaths in the US, it may not just be because we took drastic measures. It may be that this wasn't as deadly as some have pushed.

That flies in the face of what we saw in China as they locked down 150 million of their population for well over a month, not to mention what we saw in Italy, Spain, France and the mass graves in Iran. Have you seen the reports out of Ecuador?

In reality, this 'debate' doesn't matter. Hopefully there are plenty of people who think we overreacted when this is said and done as it will mean the stay at home campaign was successful enough to prevent 100s of thousands of deaths in the United States.
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Michael Cera Palin
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12:01p, 4/6/20
AG
I think it's becoming very clear (and is already pretty intuitive) that cities with large population densities and reliance on public transportation are going to get hurt the worst. New Orleans is kind of a special case but considering this thing first started popping up when Mardi Gras was going on it spread similarly to the way I think it would on a subway system like NYC.

Washington State had the nations first confirmed case which quickly spread to a nursing home and caused a large death event. From there it's grown but nowhere near the way it has in New York even when you look at it from a per capita standpoint. Sure, there were probably lots of unreported cases early on when testing was essentially nonexistent, but why were the hospitals in Seattle never in full on meltdown mode like they are in New York? When you look at Washington it has a large metro area with significant urban sprawl (Seattle/Tacoma) and the rest of the state is empty sparsely populated rural areas. Texas is pretty similar in that while we have more urban areas, they're all spread out with low population densities compared to NYC. The vast majority of the population doesn't rely on public transportation. I don't know how much the modeling community is looking back at the beginning of Washington's timeline and adjusting their r0 value based on what we've seen from there. I think it would be a much more accurate number for the average US state compared to using the r0 average they initially were using. Obviously the start date and intensity of "stay-at-home" measures play a big roll as well.

Glad they didn't reach a point of needing all the ventilators they received and glad they're being shared appropriately. Washington gives me hope this thing will be manageable in a decent timeline for the majority of the US.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Cancelled • 12:01p, 4/6/20
AG
queso1 said:
That's nice and all, but the media and others were (and still are) predicting catastrophic deaths even with social distancing and what we have been doing. I am extremely pleased about this. But, there is an element in this country that simply wants to see the world burn.
The latest model says 82k dead which is a very nice change from the initial estimates of 100s of thousands.
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to Ag Defense Rules • 12:02p, 4/6/20
Ag Defense Rules said:
it may not just be because we took drastic measures. It may be that this wasn't as deadly as some have pushed.
What research will you carry out to determine which is true? I'm looking for some good data and scholarly information sites, please share if you have any. It will be interesting to analyze with hindsight.
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Dddfff
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In reply to Complete Idiot • 1:38p, 4/6/20
AG
Complete Idiot said:
Ag Defense Rules said:
it may not just be because we took drastic measures. It may be that this wasn't as deadly as some have pushed.
What research will you carry out to determine which is true? I'm looking for some good data and scholarly information sites, please share if you have any. It will be interesting to analyze with hindsight.
Username checks out! You are looking for scholarly sites on Texags!

Here's a hint. We will never know the fatality rate since we will never know the number of people that have had the virus already. We'll extrapolate from smaller samples, but the statement in bold is correct.
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Keegan99
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In reply to PJYoung • 1:47p, 4/6/20
AG
China locked down because they're a) authoritarian and b) didn't know what they were dealing with.

The European cities all have densities well above what is seen in the US and rely heavily on mass transit.

Paris, for example, has a density of 54,000 people per square mile. Of NYCs five burroughs, only Manhattan is more dense.

(I'd wager that Ecuador also doesn't have most citizens in freestanding homes with their own automobiles.)
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pv
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In reply to Cancelled • 1:59p, 4/6/20
queso1 said:
That's nice and all, but the media and others were (and still are) predicting catastrophic deaths even with social distancing and what we have been doing. I am extremely pleased about this. But, there is an element in this country that simply wants to see the world burn.


So the 100,000- 200,000 deaths Trump is predicting is not catastrophic?

Everyone around the world should be doing all they can to help reduce the danger.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to Cancelled • 2:02p, 4/6/20
AG
queso1 said:
That's nice and all, but the media and others were (and still are) predicting catastrophic deaths even with social distancing and what we have been doing. I am extremely pleased about this. But, there is an element in this country that simply wants to see the world burn.
You're no longer on the home field where you get to assume anyone who has a different opinion wants the very worst.

There may be a few out there that want the world to burn for various reasons. But none of folks on this forum have given any indication they're part of that group.
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PJYoung
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2:10p, 4/6/20
AG
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Keegan99
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In reply to PJYoung • 2:14p, 4/6/20
AG
Is our percentage of tests that return positive abnormally high?

If you're really under testing, but you test the most serious, you should see a higher percentage of tests return positive.
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to Dddfff • 2:19p, 4/6/20
Beat the Hell said:
Complete Idiot said:
Ag Defense Rules said:
it may not just be because we took drastic measures. It may be that this wasn't as deadly as some have pushed.
What research will you carry out to determine which is true? I'm looking for some good data and scholarly information sites, please share if you have any. It will be interesting to analyze with hindsight.
Username checks out! You are looking for scholarly sites on Texags!

Here's a hint. We will never know the fatality rate since we will never know the number of people that have had the virus already. We'll extrapolate from smaller samples, but the statement in bold is correct.
No, I am looking for facts, not opinions. I agree we won't know the exact case fatality rate with zero error, but I am also not sure which of the poster's two "it may be" scenarios is correct. When you determined that "this wasn't as deadly as some have pushed" was correct, which information did you use? As in who "pushed" how deadly it was, what they had estimated, and what is now proven to be correct.
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TXTransplant
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2:27p, 4/6/20
Take the arguing over whether or not social distancing was "necessary" back to the politics board!
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Snap E Tom
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2:31p, 4/6/20
Not sure if it's mentioned in the original article, but WA and the feds scraped plans to build a 300 bed emergency hospital at the football stadium. They don't think it's going to be needed. Beds going elsewhere.
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TXTransplant
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In reply to Snap E Tom • 2:32p, 4/6/20
Snap E Tom said:
Not sure if it's mentioned in the original article, but WA and the feds scraped plans to build a 300 bed emergency hospital at the football stadium. They don't think it's going to be needed. Beds going elsewhere.


I read several different articles about this today, and I remember reading that.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Keegan99 • 3:27p, 4/6/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
Is our percentage of tests that return positive abnormally high?

If you're really under testing, but you test the most serious, you should see a higher percentage of tests return positive.

Yes.



Quote:
Our governor is correct in saying that we have a "different set of facts than New York." NY tested 1.54% of its population, while we tested 0.06%. It's not close to being NYC level bad here, especially w/ much less population & density, but it's definitely worse than reported.

One caveat is that Oklahoma doesn't report negative results from private labs (I'm not sure how many tests are done in private labs). But considering that OK's reported tests per 1 million is 678 and the next closest (Mississippi) is 2,268, there's a rather large gap to close.

Another contributing factor is that Oklahoma had more restrictive testing criteria up through a couple days ago. I'll have to check specifically what the older criteria was, but I assume it excluded many likely positive cases.
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Keegan99
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In reply to PJYoung • 3:34p, 4/6/20
AG
No.

"Our" is not Oklahoma.

What's the data for Texas?
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TXTransplant
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In reply to Keegan99 • 3:40p, 4/6/20
Keegan99 said:
No.

"Our" is not Oklahoma.

What's the data for Texas?


APRIL 6 2:30 p.m. During a press conference, Gov. Abbott reported new coronavirus numbers in Texas:

85,357 Texans tested
7,319 have tested positive in Texas
140 deaths


Houston saw a jump in cases today from ~2200 to 2884.

They got a "batch" of test results back today going back to MID-MARCH.

Not only are we not testing enough people, it's taking up to two weeks to get results back.
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Keegan99
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In reply to TXTransplant • 3:44p, 4/6/20
AG

Quote:
85,357 Texans tested

7,319 have tested positive in Texas


Ok, so less than 9% positive.

That's better than what UW Virology is showing in Washington, where they have tested a lot.

http://depts.washington.edu/labmed/covid19/
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PJYoung
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In reply to Keegan99 • 3:48p, 4/6/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
No.

"Our" is not Oklahoma.

What's the data for Texas?

Ah i missed the 'our'. I had seen that tweet about Oklahoma last night and they are the least tested state.

And yes, I agree that Texas has looked good to very good so far , even with Houston being a potential problem still.

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TXTransplant
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In reply to Keegan99 • 3:51p, 4/6/20
Keegan99 said:

Quote:
85,357 Texans tested

7,319 have tested positive in Texas


Ok, so less than 9% positive.

That's better than what UW Virology is showing in Washington, where they have tested a lot.

http://depts.washington.edu/labmed/covid19/


Are you seriously trying to say that 8.57% is "better" than 9.4%

And that link you provided actually shows data for FEWER tests - 51,069 with 5,098 positive and a positive rate of 9.4% on 4/5/2020.

The mayor of Houston just said the city has only done ~5,000 tests (not including private tests). And they have almost 2900 cases.

Edited to add 2900 cases in the greater Houston area, not just City of Houston. That was not clear in the presser.

Edited to add: Houston does only have 10 deaths at this point (excluding the rest of Harris County).
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Signel
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In reply to Dddfff • 3:57p, 4/6/20
AG
SO what.. then we will have the TP, PPE, and vents for the next ChinaVirus.
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Keegan99
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In reply to TXTransplant • 4:00p, 4/6/20
AG
Yes, Washington has fewer tests in absolute number but a much higher testing percentage because their population is a fraction of Texas'.

And our positive percentage is comparable. That better?

Point being, we're not seeing an abnormally high percentage of positives relative to high testing locales. Oklahoma is, however.

(And the 9.4% number is for one day. The aggregate percentage is 10.0% - 5,098/51069. And yes, 8.6% is better than 10.0%)
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TXTransplant
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In reply to Keegan99 • 4:06p, 4/6/20
Keegan99 said:
Yes, Washington has fewer tests in absolute number but a much higher testing percentage because their population is a fraction of Texas'.

And our positive percentage is comparable. That better? yes

Point being, we're not seeing an abnormally high percentage of positives relative to high testing locales. Oklahoma is, however.

(And the 9.4% number is for one day. The aggregate percentage is 10.0% - 5,098/51069. And yes, 8.6% is better than 10.0%)


I was wondering why you mentioned the 9.4% number instead of 10%.

Edit to correct: 2900 cases in the greater Houston area. 402 new cases in Houston today. Looks like 1145 positives in City of Houston. So a 23% positive rate for the city.

I would argue, though, that we are NOT a high testing locale. We should be testing more people.

BUT, the death number is low and our hospitals are not overwhelmed at this point.

I do think things could swing either way in the next two weeks. How well have people actually been social distancing? And I ~think~ the average time to death is something like two weeks. IDK how many positive cases are critical, so there could still be a surge.
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Aggie1946
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In reply to Cancelled • 4:21p, 4/6/20
queso1 said:
That's nice and all, but the media and others were (and still are) predicting catastrophic deaths even with social distancing and what we have been doing. I am extremely pleased about this. But, there is an element in this country that simply wants to see the world burn.


I mean, Trump has literally been predicting over 100k deaths for a week so I'm not sure what you expect the media to report.
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CalAG
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In reply to TXTransplant • 4:23p, 4/6/20
AG
TXTransplant said:

I was wondering why you mentioned the 9.4% number instead of 10%.

Edit to correct: 2900 cases in the greater Houston area. 402 new cases in Houston today. Looks like 1145 positives in City of Houston. So a 23% positive rate for the city.

I would argue, though, that we are NOT a high testing locale. We should be testing more people.

BUT, the death number is low and our hospitals are not overwhelmed at this point.

I do think things could swing either way in the next two weeks. How well have people actually been social distancing? And I ~think~ the average time to death is something like two weeks. IDK how many positive cases are critical, so there could still be a surge.
I don't know where you are getting the denominator for a 23% positive rate for the city of Houston. The approximately 5,000 public lab test number is statewide according to the State Website. Of course that is only 6.5% of the total tests conducted in the state.

According to the same website, Texas has only had an 8.5% positive rate for all tests conducted.
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TXTransplant
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In reply to CalAG • 4:25p, 4/6/20
CalAG said:
TXTransplant said:

I was wondering why you mentioned the 9.4% number instead of 10%.

Edit to correct: 2900 cases in the greater Houston area. 402 new cases in Houston today. Looks like 1145 positives in City of Houston. So a 23% positive rate for the city.

I would argue, though, that we are NOT a high testing locale. We should be testing more people.

BUT, the death number is low and our hospitals are not overwhelmed at this point.

I do think things could swing either way in the next two weeks. How well have people actually been social distancing? And I ~think~ the average time to death is something like two weeks. IDK how many positive cases are critical, so there could still be a surge.
I don't know where you are getting the denominator for a 23% positive rate for the city of Houston. The approximately 5,000 public lab test number is statewide according to the State Website. Of course that is only 6.5% of the total tests conducted in the state.

According to the same website, Texas has only had an 8.5% positive rate for all tests conducted.


The mayor said in the presser today that the city has only tested ~5000 people, not including private tests. He admitted that number should be more like 30k. He very well could have misspoken.

It was a verbal statement, so no source other than the presser.

And CoH cases are up to 1145 today, thanks to 400+ new cases. Total for Harris Co, including Houston is now 1800+.

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