Official: UT forecasts 100,000 coronavirus cases in Williamson County by early June

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aginlakeway
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3:13p, 4/7/20
AG
https://www.statesman.com/news/20200407/official-ut-forecasts-100000-coronavirus-cases-in-williamson-county-by-early-june

"The model also shows that the number of people who will require hospitalization will be close to 5,000, including 787 patients who will be in intensive care, he said. It also forecasts that over time, 500 people in Williamson County will need ventilators, Gravell said.

He said that according to the UT model, a climb in cases is supposed to begin about April 14 and then peak in mid-May to early June."


Seriously???
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beerad12man
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3:17p, 4/7/20
AG
My family just group texted me and I had to calm them all down for what appears to be sensationalist journalism. There's nothing about that number that seems right.

Out of 590K, 100k getting tested would be 10x worse than any other area in the world, would it not?.

100k out of 590k? When New York City, the worst spot in the country right now, is at 72k out of 18 million? I don't think so. Even if 100k got sick(unlikely imho), no way they are administering 100k tests
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DifferenceMaker Ag
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3:24p, 4/7/20
That is complete garbage. Proof positive that certain eggheads should not have calculators, and certain journalists should be digging ditches.
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Carolin_Gallego
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3:32p, 4/7/20
Is this the study they are talking about?

If so, it doesn't really say that.
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fig96
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3:34p, 4/7/20
AG
We (I live in Williamson) currently have 87 cases out out of 590k residents and that's supposed to increase to 100k inside of 60 days with people currently sheltering in place?

Also odd that the article doesn't show the model or give any real reason for the increase, something seems off here.
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Another Doug
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3:38p, 4/7/20
AG
Take it with a grain of salt, UT also forecasts 100,000 at their home games
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fig96
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In reply to DifferenceMaker Ag • 3:38p, 4/7/20
AG
DifferenceMaker Ag said:
That is complete garbage. Proof positive that certain eggheads should not have calculators, and certain journalists should be digging ditches.
After looking at the link posted, I'm wondering if this was a case of the judge mentioned not being able to read and interpret a study correctly.
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96ags
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3:41p, 4/7/20
96ags
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3:41p, 4/7/20
AG
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vansprinkle
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3:43p, 4/7/20
AG
Who wrote that? The Perryman group out of Waco?
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fig96
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3:46p, 4/7/20
AG
Bit more info here, still no link to the study though:
https://communityimpact.com/austin/georgetown/coronavirus/2020/04/07/williamson-county-predicts-100000-sick-deaths-in-the-hundreds-during-coronavirus-pandemic/

Quote:
Gravell said the projections are coming from the Williamson County Emergency Services Operations Center. He said the county is looking at data provide by The University of Texas at Austin but added that the ESOC numbers are projecting slightly higher that what was provided by the university.


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Ellis Wyatt
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3:53p, 4/7/20
Bureaucrats.
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JAG-83
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In reply to vansprinkle • 4:00p, 4/7/20
AG
vansprinkle said:
Who wrote that? The Perryman group out of Waco?
If so no problem. Texas is due to fall into the Gulf from our SEC departure any day now anyway....
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96ags
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4:01p, 4/7/20
AG
What am I missing???

The Diamond Princess cruise ship had an approx 700 infections out of 3711 passengers (18.86%). Wilco has approx 418,000 residents. 100,000 infections would be 24%. 20% higher than the cruise ship?
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oragator
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In reply to Carolin_Gallego • 4:03p, 4/7/20
If that's the study referenced, it's the Austin-Round Rock MSA which covers five counties and over 2 million people.
It's also from over two weeks ago, which is forever ago in modeling thing.
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Frozen Concoction
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4:11p, 4/7/20
If that model is anywhere near accurate, which I doubt, we might as well give up, let people die, and go about business as usual.
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Carolin_Gallego
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In reply to oragator • 4:14p, 4/7/20
oragator said:
If that's the study referenced, it's the Austin-Round Rock MSA which covers five counties and over 2 million people.
It's also from over two weeks ago, which is forever ago in modeling thing.
Hmmm. Okay, thanks.

I wonder which study they are refrencing.
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jswags
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4:38p, 4/7/20
AG
I kept wondering why Utah was doing a study on Williamson County.
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The Fife
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4:43p, 4/7/20
Today I learned that Williamson County has 100,000 people living there.

I guess it's been a while now since I left the state.
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GE
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4:56p, 4/7/20
AG
Page not found on the article linked. Probably realized how ridiculous it was and removed it.
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96ags
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In reply to The Fife • 4:58p, 4/7/20
AG
The Fife said:
Today I learned that Williamson County has 100,000 people living there.

I guess it's been a while now since I left the state.
600,000.
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jopatura
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5:04p, 4/7/20
AG
"Eckhardt said in the April 7 Travis County Commissioners Court meeting that the new order would take into account both Gov. Greg Abbott's order as well as UT coronavirus model projections."

If the county officials are using this model, we're never leaving our houses again.
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PFG
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5:06p, 4/7/20
AG
Bye, football season.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to PFG • 5:07p, 4/7/20
AG
PFG said:
Bye, football season.


Why?
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96ags
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In reply to jopatura • 5:09p, 4/7/20
AG
jopatura said:
"Eckhardt said in the April 7 Travis County Commissioners Court meeting that the new order would take into account both Gov. Greg Abbott's order as well as UT coronavirus model projections."

If the county officials are using this model, we're never leaving our houses again.
They've all bailed on the Washington report since it got more positive over the weekend.
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Ozzy Osbourne
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5:19p, 4/7/20
I get a 404 not found on that statesman article... maybe it was retracted?
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AG81xx
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5:20p, 4/7/20
AG
If stay at home orders are so successful and needed, how do you go from 89 cases to 100,000 in a month and a half?

They need to show the assumptions that go into this model. Something doesn't add up. It would require the case to double every 4 days for over 40 days...
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Not a Bot
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5:50p, 4/7/20
AG
Link is down. Guess they thought better of publishing that.
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Fitch
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5:55p, 4/7/20
AG
Numbers didn't make sense anyway. Depending on source (they're all wrong right now) reports of hospitalizations range between 10-30%.
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UTExan
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In reply to Another Doug • 7:05p, 4/7/20
Beware of Doug said:
Take it with a grain of salt, UT also forecasts 100,000 at their home games


And a 15-0 season.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
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bigagcode123
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8:09p, 4/7/20
Fake News!!!!! Did Jim Acosta write that article ???
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agsalaska
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In reply to bigagcode123 • 8:47p, 4/7/20
AG
bigagcode123 said:
Fake News!!!!! Did Jim Acosta write that article ???
It was fake news the entire time. Even the studies they were referencing did not say that.

Gezz. Cmon media.
I don’t say this in a braggedocious way. But it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.

-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025



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Another Doug
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In reply to agsalaska • 10:14p, 4/7/20
AG
agsalaska said:
bigagcode123 said:
Fake News!!!!! Did Jim Acosta write that article ???
It was fake news the entire time. Even the studies they were referencing did not say that.

Gezz. Cmon media.
Wasn't "fake" news, but a bad headline and a crappy article . I read the original link, and all the facts were quotes from a County Judge and his interpretation of data from 3/26 (which is ancient in this timeline). It is also pretty stupid to write an article where a County Judge is interpreting science and math.


To their credit they printed a correction.

Headline now says...
"Williamson County coronavirus cases could reach 100,000 by mid-August, officials say"

This was added at the bottom.
EDITOR'S NOTE: This story has been updated to clarify that county officials, not University of Texas researchers, calculated the Williamson County infection estimates.



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AggieAuditor
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In reply to Another Doug • 10:19p, 4/7/20
AG
So Bill Gravell was the source for all this? Lord help us.
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Ozzy Osbourne
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10:20p, 4/7/20
County officials are doing pandemic modeling in their spare time now? I suppose I'll be voting for someone else come next election. What utter buffoonery!
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