Official: UT forecasts 100,000 coronavirus cases in Williamson County by early June
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Last: 5 yr ago by aginlakeway
"UT researchers said that calculating statistically reliable infection estimates for Williamson County would take time. They did not immediately answer questions Tuesday afternoon about the validity of how Williamson County officials calculated their estimates.
UT released a report Monday with new figures on projected health care demand. But the county didn't know about the new report and their Tuesday estimates don't reflect those numbers, Odom said."
WilCo modeled it by breaking down numbers from Mar 26 for a 5 county radius in Central Texas and somehow extrapolated their own county data from that. Stupid, stupid.
UT released a report Monday with new figures on projected health care demand. But the county didn't know about the new report and their Tuesday estimates don't reflect those numbers, Odom said."
WilCo modeled it by breaking down numbers from Mar 26 for a 5 county radius in Central Texas and somehow extrapolated their own county data from that. Stupid, stupid.
Wow. Just wow. What in the actual hell were they thinking?
So they literally took the study for the Austin-Round Rock area, estimated we're at 75% compliance for social distancing, and divided by 4.
Also, mid-August is a whole lot different than early June as the original article claimed.
Also, mid-August is a whole lot different than early June as the original article claimed.
Community Impact Newspaper is to journalism what the giant dump I took this morning is to journalism.
Their main goal is plugging business openings and events to get those businesses to advertise with them. They never write a story that wasn't a press release first. Ignore.
Their main goal is plugging business openings and events to get those businesses to advertise with them. They never write a story that wasn't a press release first. Ignore.
Agree, I read it to see what business are coming to my area but if you are getting your news or other information from it you are in for a world of disappointment.
Oh for sure, I didn't even know they had actual news till I searched for the story 
In this case that doesn't change the story, however, they actually had more detail than The Statesman did initially.
In this case that doesn't change the story, however, they actually had more detail than The Statesman did initially.
Well it sounds like Judge (and part time epidemiologist) Gravell was violating his own order to come to his grandson's birthday party wearing a fireman's gear he used his position to borrow from the Jarrell Fire Department: https://www.kxan.com/investigations/investigation-ordered-into-williamson-county-judge-for-violating-his-own-stay-at-home-order/
Congratulations on the stars.Beware of Doug said:
Take it with a grain of salt, UT also forecasts 100,000 at their home games
Williamson County just announced their 124th total case.
That is averaging just over 4.6 new cases per day in a county of 580,000.
At that rate, the county will see it's 10,000th case in February of 2026. Not sure about 100,000.
That is averaging just over 4.6 new cases per day in a county of 580,000.
At that rate, the county will see it's 10,000th case in February of 2026. Not sure about 100,000.
While their estimate seems silly at this point, your math doesn't hold up either as this isn't a linear thing.96ags said:
Williamson County just announced their 124th total case.
That is averaging just over 4.6 new cases per day in a county of 580,000.
At that rate, the county will see it's 10,000th case in February of 2026. Not sure about 100,000.
So far the progression has stayed pretty linear, but the cases can increase exponentially which is where the danger happens. If we get any kind of uptick the overall number of cases can increase very rapidly.
It's exponential, don't you know? Two weeks from now it will be at the 100,000.
Literally the post above yours!!!OldArmyBrent said:
It's exponential, don't you know? Two weeks from now it will be at the 100,000.
It is a month's worth of 3-8 per day. Does the "exponential start in two "more" weeks??
96ags said:Literally the post above yours!!!OldArmyBrent said:
It's exponential, don't you know? Two weeks from now it will be at the 100,000.
It is a month's worth of 3-8 per day. Does the "exponential start in two "more" weeks??
Do you literally read?
Quote:
So far the progression has stayed pretty linear, but the cases can increase exponentially which is where the danger happens.
I didn't say that it's going to increase exponentially, but the potential is there. Travis County is trending upwards, the fact that it hasn't yet in Williamson doesn't mean it won't.
You realize I was responding to Old Army not you, right?
I was ignoring your repetition of the same old "just wait" phrase. I've heard it already.
I was ignoring your repetition of the same old "just wait" phrase. I've heard it already.
And you were talking about the post I made, so I responded. That's how these things work.
You seem to ignore a lot.
You seem to ignore a lot.
100,000 in Williamson County would be no higher than a 17% infection rate.96ags said:
Williamson County just announced their 124th total case.
That is averaging just over 4.6 new cases per day in a county of 580,000.
At that rate, the county will see it's 10,000th case in February of 2026. Not sure about 100,000.
I know most of the discussion is about the timeline, but you almost seem to also be mocking the idea of 100,000 infections, regardless of the timeline.
Beware of Doug said:
Take it with a grain of salt, UT also forecasts 100,000 at their home games
LOL, Now that was pretty funny.
It should be repeated, that this article was based off of quotes from a city official that probably has no understanding of math or science paraphrasing research that is weeks old at this point.
Somewhat, but mainly the timeline and the testing. We currently are seeing 15-25% positive rate on test administered to people showing symptoms. To get to 100,000 confirmed cases Wilco would need to test every single country resident. The numbers simply aren't logical. Most certainly not by May and likely not even by the end of the year.TXAggie2011 said:100,000 in Williamson County would be no higher than a 17% infection rate.96ags said:
Williamson County just announced their 124th total case.
That is averaging just over 4.6 new cases per day in a county of 580,000.
At that rate, the county will see it's 10,000th case in February of 2026. Not sure about 100,000.
I know most of the discussion is about the timeline, but you almost seem to also be mocking the idea of 100,000 infections, regardless of the timeline.
He was a politician fear mongering which makes him an ******* in my book.
Easy number to hit without the entire county being shutdown, but I'm assuming the 100k comment was considering this? I don't know, it's paywalled for me and I assume, like was mentioned, it was a politician that didn't understand the numbers.96ags said:Somewhat, but mainly the timeline and the testing. We currently are seeing 15-25% positive rate on test administered to people showing symptoms. To get to 100,000 confirmed cases Wilco would need to test every single country resident. The numbers simply aren't logical. Most certainly not by May and likely not even by the end of the year.TXAggie2011 said:100,000 in Williamson County would be no higher than a 17% infection rate.96ags said:
Williamson County just announced their 124th total case.
That is averaging just over 4.6 new cases per day in a county of 580,000.
At that rate, the county will see it's 10,000th case in February of 2026. Not sure about 100,000.
I know most of the discussion is about the timeline, but you almost seem to also be mocking the idea of 100,000 infections, regardless of the timeline.
He was a politician fear mongering which makes him an ******* in my book.
EDIT2: Nevermind, the article a little ways up works for me now... brb
Not impressed by the foolish Co Judge Gravell.
How Stupid. And asking personal favors is an abuse of position.
As a retired Vol firefighter, I'm ticked off.
How Stupid. And asking personal favors is an abuse of position.
As a retired Vol firefighter, I'm ticked off.
What about the $20,000 contract for refrigerated trailers that he committed the county to for storing bodies in?
Guy is flat out a crook.
Guy is flat out a crook.
nm - already posted above
Hopefully we learn a few lessons about believing "experts".
That is the sad part, at no point in this entire story was anyone claiming to be an expert. Original headline was just click bait.AG81xx said:
Hopefully we learn a few lessons about believing "experts".
I've had jury duty in Gravel's court twice. I've voted for him. I was pretty impressed with him in the courtroom and how he handled himself and treated the accused and attorneys on both sides.
Pretty disappointing to me to see this.
Pretty disappointing to me to see this.
This group is literally who the Williamson County and Travis county judges used to inform their decisions, solely.
96ags said:Somewhat, but mainly the timeline and the testing. We currently are seeing 15-25% positive rate on test administered to people showing symptoms. To get to 100,000 confirmed cases Wilco would need to test every single country resident.TXAggie2011 said:100,000 in Williamson County would be no higher than a 17% infection rate.96ags said:
Williamson County just announced their 124th total case.
That is averaging just over 4.6 new cases per day in a county of 580,000.
At that rate, the county will see it's 10,000th case in February of 2026. Not sure about 100,000.
I know most of the discussion is about the timeline, but you almost seem to also be mocking the idea of 100,000 infections, regardless of the timeline.
Wait, you know a resident that previously tested negative can still get it, right?
You guys are ridiculous.
Yes, I'm aware that is possible. I'm sure 100,000 is just around the corner. How many times do you think each of us Wilco residents need to get tested?
Yes, I'm aware that is possible. I'm sure 100,000 is just around the corner. How many times do you think each of us Wilco residents need to get tested?
And you don't really appear to read. I don't see anyone here saying we're going to get 100,000 cases, and certainly not in the next few months. But keep repeating that.
96ags said:
You guys are ridiculous.
Yes, I'm aware that is possible. I'm sure 100,000 is just around the corner. How many times do you think each of us Wilco residents need to get tested?
Who in texags predicted that?
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