http://www.igmchicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Covid_Iceland_v10.pdf

Interesting study saying that the undetected rates could be way higher than expected. Hope to see what y'all think

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

Would love for this to be true. There are certainly way more who have and/or had covid19 than we have counted.

GREAT NEWS!

.........so what percentage of immune people is necessary to achieve effective herd immunity for the general population?

In the absence of effective preventative treatment, a vaccine or perpetual social distancing, islands of herd immunity in hotspots like NYC will not prevent follow-on waves of infection in the rest of this wide-open country.

Barring a medical breakthrough, will we have to go thru years of flare-ups to get to national herd immunity?

Great news, I wish I could be first and get back to work immediately!

74OA said:

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.........so what percentage of immune people is necessary to achieve effective herd immunity for the general population?

In the absence of effective preventative treatment, a vaccine or perpetual social distancing, islands of herd immunity in hotspots like NYC will not prevent follow-on waves of infection in the rest of this wide-open country.

Barring a medical breakthrough, will we have to go thru years of flare-ups to get to national herd immunity?

---

About three fidy.

Look, I'm not saying that, even if the above information is true, that this thing is still not a problem. But, if the above is true, this isn't the second coming of the Spainish Flu, either.

Reveille said:

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Antibody testing is coming fast! I have been in contact with my labs and we plan to begin as early as next week.

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How many people can you test per day? Do you know of other places in Houston to get tested?

Thank you

DadHammer said:

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Reveille said:

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Antibody testing is coming fast! I have been in contact with my labs and we plan to begin as early as next week.

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How many people can you test per day? Do you know of other places in Houston to get tested?

Thank you

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It should be readily available at almost every primary care office in a few weeks so everyone coming in for checkups etc could theoretically get the labs done.

It's great to hear antibody testing will soon be available - I hope it is accurate, available to all, delivers quick test results, and that production can meet demand.

If all that is true, I wonder how the data will be used. SHow your antibody positive test before entering a restaurant? Work? Just peace of mind if you prove to have antibodies, leaving those who are negative fearful of Covid?

Will be interesting. But the big thing is conducting the tests.

The herd immunity percentage depends on how contagious the disease is. The more contagious (measles) you need herd immunity of like 90 percent. Less contagious (Ebola) you can get away with much lower.

Some recent studies have indicated the number for Covid is around 80%.

This would be great news. I hope it's true.

Encouraging study. It'll take a couple of readings and some thought to fully digest.


On the first read, I take some issue with that study of Iceland comparing itself to the Wuhan/Li study in the conclusion.

The Li study estimated, indeed, an 86% nondetection rate in Wuhan. But that was an estimate of pre-lockdown detetction rates.

That same team estimated the non-detection rate after Wuhan went into lockdown to be around 35%. Or, in other words the detection rate was estimated to increase from about 14% to about 65% pre- and post-lockdown.

The implications of that are several, including, but perhaps not limited to:

(1) There's not as strong a correlation between the two studies' results.
(2) Detection rates may not apply neatly over time.
(3) Detection rates may not apply neatly across response policy (Wuhan studies suggest: live as normal = lower ---> full lock down = higher.)

Looking backwards further and further in time, a fuller study would have to attempt to collate experiences in hospitals (interpreted by treatment, etc. data) with the work done in studies such as this one. That's possibly the biggest statistical conundrum in this ordeal.

I'm also not sure its adequately capturing people who didn't qualify for the "official" NUHI testing but at a later point did, and were tested and eventually captured within the NUHI data.

That would mean an overestimate of some magnitude of "undetected" cases. It might only be slight, but slight across a large enough population becomes not so slight.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html