Did Sweden end up taking the best approach?

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Sq 17
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In reply to California Ag 90 • 12:44p, 4/17/20
sorry CalAg i misattributed your reply i should have addressed the poster who was trying to make the argument that urban density was determinative. Stockholm is much denser than the two metro areas of Oslo & Helsinki.

The death rate in Albany GA which had a superspread event ( 2 funerals ) early in the pandemic Shows the death rate can get very high even in rural areas. The surrounding Counties around Albany are in top 5 in death per capita last time i saw any reporting on it.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Sq 17 • 12:47p, 4/17/20
AG
Sq 17 said:
sorry CalAg i misattributed your reply i should have addressed the poster who was trying to make the argument that urban density was determinative. Albany GA had a superspread event ( 2 funerals ) early in the pandemic and the surrounding Counties are in top 5 in death per capita last time i saw any reporting on it.

Yes the map I posted was for infection rate. Death rate is similar:



https://covidcompare.com/
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California Ag 90
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In reply to Sq 17 • 12:47p, 4/17/20
AG
Sq 17 said:
sorry CalAg i misattributed your reply i should have addressed the poster who was trying to make the argument that urban density was determinative. Albany GA had a superspread event ( 2 funerals ) early in the pandemic and the surrounding Counties are in top 5 in death per capita last time i saw any reporting on it.
thanks!
We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
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Fitch
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In reply to California Ag 90 • 12:48p, 4/17/20
AG
https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3099817/replies/56360281
Quote:
H2Ag:
Early on there was a funeral with lots of out of town visitors and lots of relatively elderly attending. Many deaths early on and they never really have got a handle on it. The small town of Albany is the epicenter. I don't know why it hasn't got national attention but the numbers are staggering and from what I have heard most victims have been in the black community.

NYT had an article early, but understandably I don't think any follow up. I'm just across the line in Alabama but it's frightening.
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California Ag 90
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In reply to Fitch • 12:50p, 4/17/20
AG
Fitch said:
https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3099817/replies/56360281
Quote:
H2Ag:
Early on there was a funeral with lots of out of town visitors and lots of relatively elderly attending. Many deaths early on and they never really have got a handle on it. The small town of Albany is the epicenter. I don't know why it hasn't got national attention but the numbers are staggering and from what I have heard most victims have been in the black community.

NYT had an article early, but understandably I don't think any follow up. I'm just across the line in Alabama but it's frightening.
every now and then you lucky Texas residents should give thanks that SXSW and Houston Rodeo were cancelled.

those decisions were so damned decisive in terms of avoiding disaster.

We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
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Sq 17
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In reply to PJYoung • 12:50p, 4/17/20
last coverage i saw had 2 nola counties with the highest death per capita numbers followed by 2 GA counties
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HouAggie2007
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In reply to California Ag 90 • 12:51p, 4/17/20
Agreed, but damn we really need to understand these super spreaders or we are just rolling the dice as we reopen
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Sq 17
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In reply to California Ag 90 • 12:51p, 4/17/20
the timing of spring break was also HUGE, much easier to extend spring break than to send kids home who are in school
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California Ag 90
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In reply to Sq 17 • 12:52p, 4/17/20
AG
Sq 17 said:
the timing of spring break was also HUGE, much easier to extend spring break than to send kids home who are in school
very true. very very lucky timing.
We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
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PJYoung
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In reply to Sq 17 • 12:55p, 4/17/20
AG
Sq 17 said:
last coverage i saw had 2 nola counties with the highest death per capita numbers followed by 2 GA counties
Just scrolling around on the map it looks like Bronx County in New York leads now at over 200 deaths per 100,000. One of those counties in Georgia was 2nd at around 160.
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Sq 17
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In reply to HouAggie2007 • 12:56p, 4/17/20
I am hoping that the asymptomatic do not shed virus at the same rate as the sick, with good hygeine and social distancing we can do some activities safely. yes some hard science data would be helpful
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PJYoung
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In reply to Sq 17 • 12:57p, 4/17/20
AG
Sq 17 said:
I am hoping that the asymptomatic do not shed virus at the same rate as the sick, with good hygeine and social distancing we can do some activities safely. yes some hard science data would be helpful
I have seen a couple of studies that stated patients were most contagious in the earliest stages of infection, before they even felt sick. That would explain the crazy infection rates.
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Squadron7
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In reply to PJYoung • 1:06p, 4/17/20
AG
PJYoung said:
Sq 17 said:
I am hoping that the asymptomatic do not shed virus at the same rate as the sick, with good hygeine and social distancing we can do some activities safely. yes some hard science data would be helpful
I have seen a couple of studies that stated patients were most contagious in the earliest stages of infection, before they even felt sick. That would explain the crazy infection rates.

I wonder if "most contagious" actually means "most likely to infect others"...which would involve a behavioral component.
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Sq 17
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In reply to Fitch • 1:06p, 4/17/20
thanks for bumping the H2ag post I had seen his reports Obviously a guy very near to it and the story has been not widely reported
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Fitch
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In reply to Sq 17 • 1:08p, 4/17/20
PJYoung
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In reply to Squadron7 • 1:13p, 4/17/20
AG
Squadron7 said:
PJYoung said:
Sq 17 said:
I am hoping that the asymptomatic do not shed virus at the same rate as the sick, with good hygeine and social distancing we can do some activities safely. yes some hard science data would be helpful
I have seen a couple of studies that stated patients were most contagious in the earliest stages of infection, before they even felt sick. That would explain the crazy infection rates.

I wonder if "most contagious" actually means "most likely to infect others"...which would involve a behavioral component.
No the studies were talking about viral load. One was a German study referenced in the March 10th Joe Rogan podcast with Michael Osterholm.

Here's a clip but the full interview is up on YouTube.

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UTExan
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In reply to Sq 17 • 1:14p, 4/17/20
Sq 17 said:
Population density of Albany GA?
I will hang up and listen


They have traced Albany to a family funeral where obviously, family members cried and hugged in close proximity, shedding the virus in the process in their body fluids. Same is true in the Smithfield plant in South Dakota: people worked in close proximity to a virus-shedder.
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Fitch
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1:17p, 4/17/20
AG
On the subject of the situation in Albany, GA... it's eerily reminiscent of an early report in Italy where an elderly gentleman died in the hospital of "pneumonia" and was tested for COVID, but the body was released and funeral held prior to the test results coming in. If I remember the report correctly his wife also contracted it, which resulted in a great many folks also contracting it as they shared condolences with the widow at the funeral service.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to Sq 17 • 1:24p, 4/17/20
AG
Sq 17 said:
the debate is whatever statistics props up personal bias. Maybe lots more people in norway die in months 2-6 of the pandemic and Sweden is frontloading all of the death. Until we have more fatality data over several months can not make an informed judgement on what the better approach is.
I totally agree, no-one can yet make an informed judgement on whether Sweden's approach seems better.

All one can definitely is, as of April 17th their death rate is significantly higher per capita than their immediate neighbors.
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UTExan
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3:19p, 4/17/20
Sweden today: over 13,000 cases, 1400 deaths.

The good news: projected deaths now down to about 5,000.
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Sq 17
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In reply to UTExan • 3:22p, 4/17/20
delta in terms of % for number of cases and deaths compared to the prior day ?
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PJYoung
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In reply to Sq 17 • 3:55p, 4/17/20
AG
Sq 17 said:
delta in terms of % for number of cases and deaths compared to the prior day ?
Sweden
13,216
+676
1,400
+67

Sweden

12,540
+613
1,333
+130
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Sq 17
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3:58p, 4/17/20
thanks drop in daily death count always good to see
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Pumpkinhead
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8:41a, 4/18/20
AG
Good recent article on Sweden, IMO.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/can-you-beat-covid-19-without-a-lockdown-sweden-is-trying/amp
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NASAg03
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10:13a, 4/18/20
Thanks for the post. Really informative, and a great conclusion.

"Will it work? History is rife with cases of calamity brought about by expertise in violation of common sense. If that's what happens in Sweden, we'll be grateful for the warning. But experts at their best point the way to common sense, even when no one else can see it. If that's what happens in Sweden, we'll be grateful for the example."

Here's another one posted yesterday from a swedish person:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/reason.com/2020/04/17/in-sweden-will-voluntary-self-isolation-work-better-than-state-enforced-lockdowns-in-the-long-run/%3ffbclid=IwAR0_sxL5MZJ_4rOyVPt1NUB2PsiMYrCqVnzd5HXc1PfJgSwdips9iMT22yg&

Although they applaud Swedish ethnic in voluntary stay-at-home, i'm pretty sure you'd see it anywhere as people get scared from higher than normal death counts and voluntarily stay at home.

Mike Shaw - Class of '03
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Demosthenes81
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10:38a, 4/18/20
AG
Deaths per million

Denmark 59.7
Finland 16.3
Norway 30.7
Sweden 148.4

Italy 376.4
France 278.9
Spain 429.0

United States 113.6

source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

Sweden is faring about as well as the US, far worse than its Nordic neighbors and far better than the Mediterranean countries. I doubt much, if anything can be deduced from it's reaction to the virus.
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DadHammer
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 10:49a, 4/18/20
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
Sq 17 said:
the debate is whatever statistics props up personal bias. Maybe lots more people in norway die in months 2-6 of the pandemic and Sweden is frontloading all of the death. Until we have more fatality data over several months can not make an informed judgement on what the better approach is.
I totally agree, no-one can yet make an informed judgement on whether Sweden's approach seems better.

All one can definitely is, as of April 17th their death rate is significantly higher per capita than their immediate neighbors.

I read another Swedish article that makes it even more difficult and it was that those countries are counted the death by covid very differently. It will be a long time before we can figure it all out. More deaths early or more deaths late? The million dollar question.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 11:01a, 4/18/20
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
Good recent article on Sweden, IMO.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/can-you-beat-covid-19-without-a-lockdown-sweden-is-trying/amp


Really good.
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DadHammer
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In reply to PJYoung • 11:16a, 4/18/20
AG
Very good article. I personally would select their approach.
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DTP02
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 11:16a, 4/18/20
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
Good recent article on Sweden, IMO.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/can-you-beat-covid-19-without-a-lockdown-sweden-is-trying/amp


Really a good article. I feel like so much of what we read in the media and even from scientists tends to be tainted by bias or politics that it's rare to see an article take a truly even-handed view these days.
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farmrag
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In reply to DadHammer • 11:48a, 4/18/20
DadHammer said:
Very good article. I personally would select their approach.
Dadhammer, what age group do fall under?
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DadHammer
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In reply to farmrag • 11:57a, 4/18/20
AG
I am 52. I just like their approach of protecting the old and weak and letting the rest try to keep going be smart about how you work and do things. At some point the virus will get to All of us. You can't eradicate it with stay home orders. so after the initial weeks to get our feet under us we need to get back to work. Just an opinion not trying to convince you or anyone to agree.
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Sq 17
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In reply to DadHammer • 12:25p, 4/18/20
Schools are closed when they would normally be open is NOT a small thing

Part of getting our feet under us is addressing the PPE shortage , changing behavior , eliminating spread through the school system & hoping for drug treatments to be developed.

I would like to see things open soon it would be best if a viable quarantine shelter was in place to manage the spread. Hopefully people who are working on this have figured out how to manage the positives that will turn up as testing increases
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NASAg03
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In reply to DadHammer • 12:26p, 4/18/20
DadHammer said:
I am 52. I just like their approach of protecting the old and weak and letting the rest try to keep going be smart about how you work and do things. At some point the virus will get to All of us. You can't eradicate it with stay home orders. so after the initial weeks to get our feet under us we need to get back to work. Just an opinion not trying to convince you or anyone to agree.


I agree. The Swedish models predict that a second peak due to lockdowns would be worse than the first. Continually delaying, testing, worrying, and trying to keep the spread at bay delays the inevitable and results in many other problems.

I had friends sheltering in place, young and healthy, prior to any state mandated closures. Pretty sure we'd see a lot of changes in social norms without state mandates, meaning those weren't really necessary.
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
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DadHammer
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In reply to Sq 17 • 12:36p, 4/18/20
AG
Sq 17 said:
Schools are closed when they would normally be open is NOT a small thing

1. true, they are only letting the young go to school not college or HS.

Part of getting our feet under us is addressing the PPE shortage , changing behavior , eliminating spread through the school system & hoping for drug treatments to be developed.

2. most hospitals are reporting plenty of PPE in Texas, most people are social distancing and being smart. Schools can stay shut until September.

I would like to see things open soon it would be best if a viable quarantine shelter was in place to manage the spread. Hopefully people who are working on this have figured out how to manage the positives that will turn up as testing increases

3. Sick should shelter at home and self quarantine.

4. desperately need antibody tests and let those people lose to live and work immediately.
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