gosh this is simply so grim an outlook and such a complete lack of faith in your fellow citizens, i don't know where to start. this logic can justify any 'collective action' that runs counter to the individual good. this country has the most robust civic institutions and civic engagement of any nation on earth, today and in human history - the most ironclad evidence of civic virtue that can exist.k2aggie07 said:Right, I totally agree. But at what cost in both economic damage and lives? The measures that have been taken in the US have completely precluded panic. Two thousand deaths a day barely registers in the public conscience.Quote:
i suspect by April we'd have seen similar compliance as the Swedes
Hypothetically speaking, if we wind up in the same place two months later, we would have what amounts to the same economic damage (or even worse) with a worse outcome in terms of epidemic management. If the epidemic got worse to where people spontaneously reacted, the outbreak would have been larger, the time to peak longer, etc.
This is a rare case where individual rationality contributes to bad outcomes. Individual motivations and collective ones are fundamentally mismatched, because for the majority of the population a precautionary quarantine is irrational in the face of the personal and collective economic cost vs the personal health benefit. We're so soaked in our capitalist mindframe that this is a does not compute for most Americans. We need people to behave irrationally on a personal level to achieve a rational response on the collective one. That takes civic virtue, which we don't have a lot of.
we covered spring break already, with hotels and flights already booked, and 'young people' not at risk as communicated at the time (yes in mid-march) you can't have been surprised so many kids showed up - but fewer than shown on TV with its constant replay of the same scene in south Florida over and over for a month.fig96 said:
In mid-March we'd started to see a rapid increase in cases and social distancing was strongly encouraged.
People were still filling the bars and Florida's beaches were packed for Spring Break.
Right...and grown ups say "I booked this trip but it's not a good idea."California Ag 90 said:we covered spring break already, with hotels and flights already booked, and 'young people' not at risk as communicated at the time (yes in mid-march) you can't have been surprised so many kids showed up - but fewer than shown on TV with its constant replay of the same scene in south Florida over and over for a month.fig96 said:
In mid-March we'd started to see a rapid increase in cases and social distancing was strongly encouraged.
People were still filling the bars and Florida's beaches were packed for Spring Break.
bars in sweden still are busy with people who weigh their risks vis-a-vis pre-existing conditions, age, etc., and make adult choices. and somehow their health system has survived and their government has continued to treat them as adults.
Quote:
"Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the government's purposes are beneficent" Justice Louis Brandeis, . (1928)
Quote:
"Asking" Americans to go against their own self interest doesn't really work, in a big picture way.
beneficent in this quote refers to the notion that the Government is being generous or virtuous.Player To Be Named Later said:
Just curious.... but what is the Government's "benefit" to all of this?
Player To Be Named Later said:
Just curious.... but what is the Government's "benefit" to all of this?
So Trump has been just going along with that all this time?DadHammer said:Player To Be Named Later said:
Just curious.... but what is the Government's "benefit" to all of this?
Forcing in socialist and communist ideas. Think green new deal bs.
I would LOVE to think that today's American society would be able to behave responsibly like perhaps the Swedes have.California Ag 90 said:
its just one very famous and principled jurist's viewpoint we might think about as we are tempted to assume the worst of the American people.
fig96 said:Right...and grown ups say "I booked this trip but it's not a good idea."California Ag 90 said:we covered spring break already, with hotels and flights already booked, and 'young people' not at risk as communicated at the time (yes in mid-march) you can't have been surprised so many kids showed up - but fewer than shown on TV with its constant replay of the same scene in south Florida over and over for a month.fig96 said:
In mid-March we'd started to see a rapid increase in cases and social distancing was strongly encouraged.
People were still filling the bars and Florida's beaches were packed for Spring Break.
bars in sweden still are busy with people who weigh their risks vis-a-vis pre-existing conditions, age, etc., and make adult choices. and somehow their health system has survived and their government has continued to treat them as adults.
Sorry, I just have way less faith in the general populace than you do.
https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-hundreds-crowd-reopened-florida-beaches-amid-coronavirus-2020-4
but I think you'd grant that as a peace officer you see the seamy underbelly of American society more often than not.Player To Be Named Later said:I would LOVE to think that today's American society would be able to behave responsibly like perhaps the Swedes have.California Ag 90 said:
its just one very famous and principled jurist's viewpoint we might think about as we are tempted to assume the worst of the American people.
But I really haven't been provided many examples of why I should believe that would be the case.
agreed.TXAggie2011 said:
The context of the Brandeis quote is a case where the federal government was wiretapping phones without warrants, and then using evidence collected by the wiretapping to criminally convict people of conspiracy to violate prohibition laws.
I like the quote, and its been used over the years to strengthen 4th and 5th amendment rights (most recently in the Carpenter case), but it should be understood within its context.
That's a fair point. But watching people rush out to the beaches in Florida, etc isn't instilling confidence that we can self-regulate very easily. And I sure wish we could. It would be much preferable if we acted with a little more intelligence.California Ag 90 said:but I think you'd grant that as a peace officer you see the seamy underbelly of American society more often than not.Player To Be Named Later said:I would LOVE to think that today's American society would be able to behave responsibly like perhaps the Swedes have.California Ag 90 said:
its just one very famous and principled jurist's viewpoint we might think about as we are tempted to assume the worst of the American people.
But I really haven't been provided many examples of why I should believe that would be the case.
and your service, I should add, is the very definition of the civic virtue too many on this board are ready to write off as something that no longer exists.
thanks for all you do and deal with every day.Player To Be Named Later said:That's a fair point. But watching people rush out to the beaches in Florida, etc isn't instilling confidence that we can self-regulate very easily. And I sure wish we could. It would be much preferable if we acted with a little more intelligence.California Ag 90 said:but I think you'd grant that as a peace officer you see the seamy underbelly of American society more often than not.Player To Be Named Later said:I would LOVE to think that today's American society would be able to behave responsibly like perhaps the Swedes have.California Ag 90 said:
its just one very famous and principled jurist's viewpoint we might think about as we are tempted to assume the worst of the American people.
But I really haven't been provided many examples of why I should believe that would be the case.
and your service, I should add, is the very definition of the civic virtue too many on this board are ready to write off as something that no longer exists.
And I appreciate that.
NASAg03 said:
If what he says comes true, public confidence in models and scientists and public health leaders is going to be destroyed.
without getting sucked into the political back and forth, it bears mentioning that 'model' based projections of complex systems and phenomenon, and using complex model predictions to drive public policy is a recent development over the past couple of decades. mass increases in computational power have enabled this approach.Proposition Joe said:NASAg03 said:
If what he says comes true, public confidence in models and scientists and public health leaders is going to be destroyed.
A large portion of the population stopped believing models, scientists and public health leaders long ago when it didn't align with what their preference was.
I don't think anyone is saying that is a viable option. Even the people running the social distancing models agree that it isn't an option.Quote:
And sorry we can't shut down the world and lurk in fear while we study this virus for a year and develop a vaccine.
Right, and then it's a game of pick your experts. How do we aggregate expert opinion? Should we poll them?Quote:
At some point we have to trust expert option until the science and peer reviewed studies catch up.
The problem is, virtually no one is actually responding to the modeling. They're responding to political and media and popular characterizations of the models...frequently against what the authors of the models themselves are saying.Quote:
I think it is increasingly likely that the projections in this case of modeling COVID will have been extremely pessimistic, and the mass alignment of public policy with those projections will trigger tremendous skepticism of all scientific modeling for a long time - to the detriment of many areas that are important and potentially less prone to errors given maturity of specific fields of data analysis.
people are responding to the public policies driven by the models.k2aggie07 said:The problem is, virtually no one is actually responding to the modeling. They're responding to political and media and popular characterizations of the models...frequently against what the authors of the models themselves are saying.Quote:
I think it is increasingly likely that the projections in this case of modeling COVID will have been extremely pessimistic, and the mass alignment of public policy with those projections will trigger tremendous skepticism of all scientific modeling for a long time - to the detriment of many areas that are important and potentially less prone to errors given maturity of specific fields of data analysis.
If someone were to ask me to estimate the load capacity of a beam, and I tell them it comes in at 1,000 lbs for a distributed static load - a model, with assumptions and so on - and then they drop 1,000 lbs on it with a wedge from 50 ft, and it breaks.... is that a bad model? No, it's bad use of a model.
I don't know how you fix that.
