Did Sweden end up taking the best approach?

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UTExan
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In reply to Keegan99 • 2:32p, 5/7/20
Keegan99 said:
UTExan said:
Quote:
Not a model for others

Despite many around the world looking upon Sweden's approach as a route out of restrictive lockdowns, Goldman analysts warn it cannot be copied like-for-like. That's because of the relatively unique demographics in Sweden.

"Its population density is about half that of Italy, and Sweden has a high proportion of single-occupancy households, and a relatively low proportion of multi-generational households. The Swedish experience therefore cannot be extrapolated to support a swift reopening elsewhere," said Goldman.

Even Swedish authorities themselves caution against returning everyday life to normal too soon. The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) warned of an increase in cases if citizens do not keep following government guidance. "There is a significant risk that people start to relax prematurely and stop following guidelines. Continue to follow the authorities' advice and be part of the solution," said Svante Werger, special adviser at MSB, to Aftonbladet.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/05/06/swedens-coronavirus-approach-not-a-model-to-copy-warns-goldman-sachs/#1260419c2aac


Low density? High proportion of single occupancy households? Low proportion of multi-generational households?

That sounds like pretty much the entire US outside of NYC.


Exactly right. The Canadian CV 19 infection rate matches the US infection rate outside of NYC. The clusters of Swedish infection and the clusters of US infection are in high density environments. Where I disagree with the Swedes is the timing of their social distancing. When we did that in the US it had a dramatic effect because the virus is not durable enough outside a mammalian host cell.
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DifferenceMaker Ag
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2:33p, 5/7/20
Yes.
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nortex97
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7:46a, 5/8/20
AG
Interesting.

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Another Doug
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:29a, 5/8/20
AG
nortex97 said:
Interesting.



I'm guessing most people are just looking at the pretty lines and not reading the text that goes with it.
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KidDoc
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In reply to Another Doug • 8:56a, 5/8/20
AG
Beware of Doug said:
nortex97 said:
Interesting.



I'm guessing most people are just looking at the pretty lines and not reading the text that goes with it.
I agree. The forecast and trend is not good but time will tell.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to Another Doug • 9:10a, 5/8/20
Yes, twitter is perfect for these people.
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goodAg80
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In reply to Another Doug • 9:17a, 5/8/20
AG
Beware of Doug said:
nortex97 said:
Interesting.



I'm guessing most people are just looking at the pretty lines and not reading the text that goes with it.
This is a great technique. Make the bad data faded and use bright colors for the good data. I can use this at work.
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oragator
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9:23a, 5/8/20
Sweden reported 135 deaths today.
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fig96
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In reply to goodAg80 • 9:30a, 5/8/20
AG
goodAg80 said:
Beware of Doug said:
nortex97 said:
Interesting.



I'm guessing most people are just looking at the pretty lines and not reading the text that goes with it.
This is a great technique. Make the bad data faded and use bright colors for the good data. I can use this at work.
XKCD has some tips too:

https://xkcd.com/2048/


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plain_o_llama
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In reply to goodAg80 • 10:01a, 5/8/20
I know some professors I had that would have loved that chart. Spring that on a final or in oral exams and ask someone to decipher it on the fly.
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plain_o_llama
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11:47a, 5/8/20
If anyone is curious here is the source of the chart.

https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/

The point here is Adam Altmejd is attempting to track how long it takes for deaths to be reported. That is interesting but not what people expect.


Most aren't interested in what he is highlighting but are interested in daily death totals. If Adam were to animate his chart the solid black line that is tailing down will continually advance higher as it changes daily to converge toward the less distinct gray forecast. The dim less distinct forecast numbers being what people are expecting to see.

That is my take at least. Perhaps I am missing the point also. :-)
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to plain_o_llama • 11:49a, 5/8/20
AG
plain_o_llama said:
I know some professors I had that would have loved that chart. Spring that on a final or in oral exams and ask someone to decipher it on the fly.
This COVID-19 crisis has gradually made me hate statistics stuff more than ever before in my life. And I'm an engineer. The sheer number of charts and plots coming out by this guy or that guy possibly trying to push this agenda or that agenda can be overwhelming.

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Keegan99
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8:01a, 5/11/20
AG
Sweden is now 450+ fatalities below IHME's latest forecast (3710+ vs 3250+). Sweden also seems to have peaked, so that difference is only going to get larger, as IHME predicts increasing daily death totals through May. Pretty significant miss by the model.

A sensible US comparison is Massachusetts. Boston and Stockholm are similar in density at about 13k per square mile, though the overall population of Massachusetts (7M) is less than Sweden (10M).

Massachusetts currently has about 5000 fatalities to Sweden's 3250.
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P.U.T.U
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8:48a, 5/11/20
AG
So let people shelter as they feel needed but open things up and make sure the elderly and those at risk are taken care of? At this point with no vaccine available for a year or so it seems those who would die from COVID will still die if they catch it, be it now or in 6 months. Pretty much means locking down nursing homes and changing policies but better than dying.
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DadHammer
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9:19a, 5/11/20
AG
Interesting..

"In an updated prognosis, Tom Britton, a professor of mathematics at Stockholm University, has predicted that Stockholm will achieve herd immunity against the novel coronavirus in June.
According to his new mathematical modelling, herd immunity may be achieved with 40-45 percent of the population having contracted the coronavirus, instead of 60 percent, as previously stated. However, due to a slower spread, this will only happen in mid-June instead of May, as predicted earlier, Britton explained to the newspaper Svenska Dagbladet.
"We have used a simple model with the reproduction number 2.5 (when each person on average infects 2.5 people) and concluded that the flock immunity occurs at about 40-45 percent instead of 60 percent," Britton said."


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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Keegan99 • 12:00p, 5/11/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
Sweden is now 450+ fatalities below IHME's latest forecast (3710+ vs 3250+). Sweden also seems to have peaked, so that difference is only going to get larger, as IHME predicts increasing daily death totals through May. Pretty significant miss by the model.

A sensible US comparison is Massachusetts. Boston and Stockholm are similar in density at about 13k per square mile, though the overall population of Massachusetts (7M) is less than Sweden (10M).

Massachusetts currently has about 5000 fatalities to Sweden's 3250.
Not unexpected given IHMEs methodology. It isn't a epidemiological model that accounts for herd immunity as much as it is fitting the shape of the curve to other countries based on days since lockdown. Given Sweden has no lockdown, and no other country has avoided lockdown and come out the other side, the IHME model has no idea when Sweden will peak and fall off.
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terradactylexpress
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 12:04p, 5/11/20
I imagine the hope is that 6 mos from now there is a treatment. I imagine Drs today have better ideas on how to treat than they did in Jan.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 12:14p, 5/11/20
AG
P.U.T.U said:
So let people shelter as they feel needed but open things up and make sure the elderly and those at risk are taken care of? At this point with no vaccine available for a year or so it seems those who would die from COVID will still die if they catch it, be it now or in 6 months. Pretty much means locking down nursing homes and changing policies but better than dying.
If you could successfully lock down the whole world so the virus completely died out, then it would work. But as long as there are populations with infected individuals, there is always the risk that travel will reintroduce to an area that eliminated it.

Given China's difficulty keeping it out and the asymptomatic carriers, that dream is a lost cause. Plus, in the US, while it might be possible* to screen people at ports of entry if you significantly reduced international travel, we still have a somewhat porous boarder to the north and south.

*The logistical challenge of testing everyone getting onto a plane/boat/train and checking every car coming in is immense. While an individual test may take 15 min, doing several hundred of them for every plane at an airport isn't so easy when the machine only does one at a time.
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Wildcat
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In reply to oragator • 3:01p, 5/11/20
AG
oragator said:
Sweden reported 135 deaths today.

31 today
Aegrescit medendo
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ETFan
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4:17p, 5/11/20
This Alistair Haimes guy is clearly a hack just from a quick perusing of his twitter. Please keep that in mind when sharing his tweets.
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PJYoung
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In reply to terradactylexpress • 6:09p, 5/11/20
AG
terradactylexpress said:
I imagine Drs today have better ideas on how to treat than they did in Jan.

They ABSOLUTELY do
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fig96
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11:38a, 5/12/20
AG
Interesting read on the situation in Sweden from someone living there:
https://gen.medium.com/what-americans-need-to-understand-about-the-swedish-coronavirus-experiment-50417cc20994
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UTExan
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1:23p, 5/12/20
If we took the projected CV 19 deaths for Sweden by Aug. 4 (10,196-a relatively stable prediction over the past seven days) and extrapolated the same number of deaths per capital onto the US, we would be looking at 320,000 deaths rather than 100,000 to 150,000. I honestly don't think they have demonstrated a successful coping model thus far.
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Keegan99
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In reply to UTExan • 1:28p, 5/12/20
AG
UTExan said:
If we took the projected CV 19 deaths for Sweden by Aug. 4 (10,196-a relatively stable prediction over the past seven days) and extrapolated the same number of deaths per capital onto the US, we would be looking at 320,000 deaths rather than 100,000 to 150,000. I honestly don't think they have demonstrated a successful coping model thus far.


Except that IHME forecast for Sweden is garbage. In less than a week from the last "reset" with real data added, it is already overshooting by more than 15%.

A more apt comparison is Massachusetts. With a similar dense large city. And Sweden is faring better. By a wide margin. Despite a 40% greater population and a higher median age and life expectancy.
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beerad12man
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1:36p, 5/12/20
AG
If it's under the medical curve, then it's been successful.
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PJYoung
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In reply to beerad12man • 1:57p, 5/12/20
AG
beerad12man said:
If it's under the medical curve, then it's been successful.

That's my feeling.

If hospitals aren't swamped then whatever your country did was relatively successful.

There's South Korea level of perfection and then there's everybody else.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Keegan99 • 4:02p, 5/12/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
UTExan said:
If we took the projected CV 19 deaths for Sweden by Aug. 4 (10,196-a relatively stable prediction over the past seven days) and extrapolated the same number of deaths per capital onto the US, we would be looking at 320,000 deaths rather than 100,000 to 150,000. I honestly don't think they have demonstrated a successful coping model thus far.


Except that IHME forecast for Sweden is garbage. In less than a week from the last "reset" with real data added, it is already overshooting by more than 15%.

A more apt comparison is Massachusetts. With a similar dense large city. And Sweden is faring better. By a wide margin. Despite a 40% greater population and a higher median age and life expectancy.
You also have to consider the long term. The whole point of flatten the curve was to spread it out to not overwhelm the hospitals.

You can't just compare deaths as of today to determine if it was successful. You have to look at deaths from a second wave or a long plateau for other countries.

If after the second wave or long plateau, the other countries are near the same, Sweden wins, because their economy and govt budget didn't get jacked up.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 4:20p, 5/12/20
AG
BiochemAg97 said:
Keegan99 said:
UTExan said:
If we took the projected CV 19 deaths for Sweden by Aug. 4 (10,196-a relatively stable prediction over the past seven days) and extrapolated the same number of deaths per capital onto the US, we would be looking at 320,000 deaths rather than 100,000 to 150,000. I honestly don't think they have demonstrated a successful coping model thus far.


Except that IHME forecast for Sweden is garbage. In less than a week from the last "reset" with real data added, it is already overshooting by more than 15%.

A more apt comparison is Massachusetts. With a similar dense large city. And Sweden is faring better. By a wide margin. Despite a 40% greater population and a higher median age and life expectancy.
You also have to consider the long term. The whole point of flatten the curve was to spread it out to not overwhelm the hospitals.

You can't just compare deaths as of today to determine if it was successful. You have to look at deaths from a second wave or a long plateau for other countries.

If after the second wave or long plateau, the other countries are near the same, Sweden wins, because their economy and govt budget didn't get jacked up.
AS jacked up.

Sweden's economy may still be heavily damaged by this pandemic over the longer term, despite the looser restrictions compared to their neighbors the past few months.

This article from 3 days ago quotes some analysts who predict that, at the end of the day, Sweden won't fare much better economically than the rest of Europe.

https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4b6e


Quote:
The European Commission forecasts that Sweden's GDP will fall by 6.1 per cent this year. The Riksbank, the country's central bank, has an even gloomier outlook, estimating that GDP will contract by 7-10 per cent, with unemployment peaking at between 9 and 10.4 per cent. These are disastrous figures for the Scandinavian country."It is too early to say that we would do better than others. In the end, we think Sweden will end up more or less the same [As the rest of Europe]," said Christina Nyman, a former deputy head of monetary policy at the Riksbank who is now chief economist at lender Handelsbanken.One big reason is that Sweden is a small, open economy with a large manufacturing industry.

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El Hombre Mas Guapo
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 7:31a, 5/13/20
AG
Yes
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tysker
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 7:45a, 5/13/20
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
BiochemAg97 said:
Keegan99 said:
UTExan said:
If we took the projected CV 19 deaths for Sweden by Aug. 4 (10,196-a relatively stable prediction over the past seven days) and extrapolated the same number of deaths per capital onto the US, we would be looking at 320,000 deaths rather than 100,000 to 150,000. I honestly don't think they have demonstrated a successful coping model thus far.


Except that IHME forecast for Sweden is garbage. In less than a week from the last "reset" with real data added, it is already overshooting by more than 15%.

A more apt comparison is Massachusetts. With a similar dense large city. And Sweden is faring better. By a wide margin. Despite a 40% greater population and a higher median age and life expectancy.
You also have to consider the long term. The whole point of flatten the curve was to spread it out to not overwhelm the hospitals.

You can't just compare deaths as of today to determine if it was successful. You have to look at deaths from a second wave or a long plateau for other countries.

If after the second wave or long plateau, the other countries are near the same, Sweden wins, because their economy and govt budget didn't get jacked up.
AS jacked up.

Sweden's economy may still be heavily damaged by this pandemic over the longer term, despite the looser restrictions compared to their neighbors the past few months.

This article from 3 days ago quotes some analysts who predict that, at the end of the day, Sweden won't fare much better economically than the rest of Europe.

https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4b6e


Quote:
The European Commission forecasts that Sweden's GDP will fall by 6.1 per cent this year. The Riksbank, the country's central bank, has an even gloomier outlook, estimating that GDP will contract by 7-10 per cent, with unemployment peaking at between 9 and 10.4 per cent. These are disastrous figures for the Scandinavian country."It is too early to say that we would do better than others. In the end, we think Sweden will end up more or less the same [As the rest of Europe]," said Christina Nyman, a former deputy head of monetary policy at the Riksbank who is now chief economist at lender Handelsbanken.One big reason is that Sweden is a small, open economy with a large manufacturing industry.

Its not just about GDP. How much financial stimulus did Sweden need to keep its economy going? Didn't they authorize a $50 billion stimulus package back in March and maybe more is coming. The US, obviously with a much larger economy, is looking to authorize an additional $3 Trillion to the $6 Trillion already working through the system. Let's compare debt-to-GDP ratios in 2025.


edit to add: And remember what an increasing debt-to-GBP ration means in this pandemic scenario... while we are saving lives now and bolstering lives now, we are doing so at a future cost, lower quality of life and less opportunities for future generations. Yes we are keeping a segment of society alive longer, and that's great, but the burden for these costs will be carried by our children and grandchildren.
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Joe Exotic
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In reply to UTExan • 8:24a, 5/13/20
AG
UTExan said:
If we took the projected CV 19 deaths for Sweden by Aug. 4 (10,196-a relatively stable prediction over the past seven days) and extrapolated the same number of deaths per capital onto the US, we would be looking at 320,000 deaths rather than 100,000 to 150,000. I honestly don't think they have demonstrated a successful coping model thus far.


I would absolutely be okay with an extra 170,000 deaths (of mostly people who were on deaths doorstep anyway) to not have to completely shut down like we did. And so should anyone.
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Banks Monkey
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In reply to Joe Exotic • 9:01a, 5/13/20
AG
Joe Exotic said:
UTExan said:
If we took the projected CV 19 deaths for Sweden by Aug. 4 (10,196-a relatively stable prediction over the past seven days) and extrapolated the same number of deaths per capital onto the US, we would be looking at 320,000 deaths rather than 100,000 to 150,000. I honestly don't think they have demonstrated a successful coping model thus far.


I would absolutely be okay with an extra 170,000 deaths (of mostly people who were on deaths doorstep anyway) to not have to completely shut down like we did. And so should anyone.
Including your parents/grandparents, right? They're ok with that?
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twk
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In reply to Banks Monkey • 9:06a, 5/13/20
AG
Aggie MoneyWhip said:
Joe Exotic said:
UTExan said:
If we took the projected CV 19 deaths for Sweden by Aug. 4 (10,196-a relatively stable prediction over the past seven days) and extrapolated the same number of deaths per capital onto the US, we would be looking at 320,000 deaths rather than 100,000 to 150,000. I honestly don't think they have demonstrated a successful coping model thus far.


I would absolutely be okay with an extra 170,000 deaths (of mostly people who were on deaths doorstep anyway) to not have to completely shut down like we did. And so should anyone.
Including your parents/grandparents, right? They're ok with that?
When an appeal to emotion is all you've got left, you've lost the argument. You're really down to, if it just saves one life, but with a twist. That's not how governments (logical ones, at any rate) make the decisions. They have to look at the big picture and weigh the effects of shutting down (which goes beyond economic impact--the shutdown is having severe adverse impacts on health, they just aren't as obvious and immediate as coronavirus) versus opening up and possibly speeding the spread (remember, lock down isn't about stopping the spread altogether, just slowing it down).
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Joe Exotic
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In reply to Banks Monkey • 9:07a, 5/13/20
AG
Aggie MoneyWhip said:
Joe Exotic said:
UTExan said:
If we took the projected CV 19 deaths for Sweden by Aug. 4 (10,196-a relatively stable prediction over the past seven days) and extrapolated the same number of deaths per capital onto the US, we would be looking at 320,000 deaths rather than 100,000 to 150,000. I honestly don't think they have demonstrated a successful coping model thus far.


I would absolutely be okay with an extra 170,000 deaths (of mostly people who were on deaths doorstep anyway) to not have to completely shut down like we did. And so should anyone.
Including your parents/grandparents, right? They're ok with that?


They are already dead. But if they weren't this is nothing but an appeal to emotion, which should never be used to dictate policy on everyone.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Banks Monkey • 9:15a, 5/13/20
AG
Aggie MoneyWhip said:
Joe Exotic said:
UTExan said:
If we took the projected CV 19 deaths for Sweden by Aug. 4 (10,196-a relatively stable prediction over the past seven days) and extrapolated the same number of deaths per capital onto the US, we would be looking at 320,000 deaths rather than 100,000 to 150,000. I honestly don't think they have demonstrated a successful coping model thus far.


I would absolutely be okay with an extra 170,000 deaths (of mostly people who were on deaths doorstep anyway) to not have to completely shut down like we did. And so should anyone.
Including your parents/grandparents, right? They're ok with that?
But it wouldn't be, we know people over 60 with health conditions and in general people over 70 are at risk. Seeing that 40-50% of all deaths happen in nursing homes (Pennsylvania is at 68%) than we know they need to change policies to protect those individuals. AKA what a true quarantine actually is. We also have a better idea of how to fight COVID so the death rate will not be as steep as it was before.

The largest reason for so many deaths was our failure to protect the elderly in nursing homes. If you truly locked those places down from the beginning we would be looking at roughly 40,000-50,000 deaths at this time instead of 83,000. Sweden shows 50% of the deaths in nursing homes as well. This is a new disease and our old procedures were not ready for it. Even in states that have not been hit that hard yet like Texas we will not see the projected numbers if we quarantine those at risk like what should have been done from the start. We just didn't know how bad COVID would hit the elderly.
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