fig96 said:
I feel like we're also way too early to really determine anything economically, whether in Sweden or anywhere else. It's interesting to look at current indicators but long term results remains to be seen, and second quarter earnings are going to be bleak.
Also ~40% of households are single person (1.8/4.7).DadHammer said:
"The number of households in Sweden has been growing constantly and amounted to approximately 4.7 million in 2019, housing 10.33 million inhabitants. Most of the households in Sweden in 2018 were single-person households without children This category amounted to around 1.8 million."
So about 18% of the population is single household. If these stats are correct.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/524909/sweden-number-of-single-person-households/
Quote:
This is now being challenged by studies suggesting many, perhaps most of us, might have some immunity because we fought off common colds (about a third of which are caused by coronaviruses). Researchers call it "cross-protective immunity". Anthony Costello, a former director of the World Health Organisation, who once feared the worst about the virus, says the new studies cast doubt on whether there will be a second wave after all.
The latest development came from a team in California who found a certain Covid response in the immune system of patients who recovered from Covid. Intriguingly, they discovered the same response in a control group who had never had the virus. This might, they said, point to some "cross-reactive, pre-existing immunity to Sars-CoV-2" in up to 60 per cent of people. It might help explain the mystery of the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship where Covid spread unchecked for a fortnight but only one in five passengers ended up catching it.
Karl Friston, a neuroscientist at University College London, put it well recently: there is some kind of immunological "dark matter" out there stopping the virus from infecting as many of us as had first been feared. No one is quite sure what it is, but it does seem to exist. Sunetra Gupta, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at Oxford University has made the same argument: that the virus has followed the same pattern worldwide, irrespective of various lockdown policies. Immunity, she says, is more likely to explain its demise.
Yonathan Freund, a professor of emergency medicine at the Sorbonne, has gone further and said a second wave can now be ruled out.
"Many of us realised that a good number of the population do not seem able to contract the virus," he said recently. "It's not clear why, but that's how it is." The immunological "dark matter" again. His conclusion: lockdown was vital, but the epidemic is over. To test his theory, he says, end lockdown now. "Closely monitor what happens. If it starts again, we will see it very quickly and take measures."
Quote:
We have enough data on Covid deaths to be able to work backwards, and estimate just how far the virus was spreading. The Norwegians did this last week and found that the virus peaked several days before lockdown. It was, for them, a big finding with big implications: in retrospect, says their health chief, lockdown was not needed. The virus could probably have been controlled with far lighter measures.
Now, the same study has been done for England and Wales. Prof Simon Wood of Bristol University shows the virus was falling fairly quickly by the time of lockdown, having peaked five days earlier. An important point, he says, when considering the "ethical" issues of a second lockdown and whether it would claim more life than it saves. But his study, like all such studies, emphasises how much we still don't know.
It's possible the virus is being halted by immunological dark materials. It's also possible that these dark materials don't exist, and that we are susceptible to a second wave. We can say that no country that has reopened has seen an overwhelming resurgence of the virus and that the world has decided that the greater risk lies in staying locked down. The doubt looks like being something we'll all have to live with.
Quote:
France's scientific council has listed four possible scenarios the country faces regarding the epidemic in the coming months.
In the best-case scenario, the virus will disappear or remain at very low levels. Failing that, a second critical cluster could appear as in eastern France at the start of the epidemic. A third scenario sees a slow deterioration of the general situation in autumn with more hospitalisations. In the worst-case scenario, France returns to a "critical deterioration" of infections and hospital pressure.
De Delfraissy said there was a 50 per cent chance of a second wave this autumn. But even in the worst case, the country would not return to a blanket nationwide lockdown.
He told Le Parisien: "The scientific council, what we are saying is: whatever happens, we will not be able to rerun a blanket lockdown in France.
"The first time, it was essential, we had no choice, but the price we have to pay is too high.
"The population would certainly not accept it, the economic consequences would be major and, even from a health point of view, this is not desirable - do not forget that, apart from Covid, there were all the other patients who had delays in diagnosis during this period."
He added, however, that some areas could see the return of local lockdown measures if they show a cluster of cases, saying: "I am firmly convinced that if it starts up again, it will start up again in the Paris region."
Quote:
Dr Delfaissy said: "If we look at the history of major pandemics of respiratory viruses, we see that eight out of ten regress spontaneously in European countries during the summer.
"On the other hand, you have five out of ten that recur in the autumn.
"We must remain extremely vigilant."
I believe (but don't have proof) that this is part of the reason it is so mild in children especially <10 years of age. They have common colds several times a year so would be expected to have circulating non COVID Coronavirus antibodies at any given time.twk said:
Will discovering coronavirus 'dark matter' save us from the dreaded second wave?
Another interesting article that discusses Sweden, but also talks about the dark matter theory, that a large portion of the population is simply immune to covid-19, due to immunity developed from other coronaviruses.
On Sweden, the point is made that a lot of articles have misinterpreted statements of Sweden's chief epidemiologist as admitting that not locking down was a mistake. That's not what he said; instead, he said that they made some mistakes, and of course, if they could do things over, they would change some things, but that it's still too early to make final assessments as to what.
Now, on to the more interesting part,Quote:
This is now being challenged by studies suggesting many, perhaps most of us, might have some immunity because we fought off common colds (about a third of which are caused by coronaviruses). Researchers call it "cross-protective immunity". Anthony Costello, a former director of the World Health Organisation, who once feared the worst about the virus, says the new studies cast doubt on whether there will be a second wave after all.
The latest development came from a team in California who found a certain Covid response in the immune system of patients who recovered from Covid. Intriguingly, they discovered the same response in a control group who had never had the virus. This might, they said, point to some "cross-reactive, pre-existing immunity to Sars-CoV-2" in up to 60 per cent of people. It might help explain the mystery of the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship where Covid spread unchecked for a fortnight but only one in five passengers ended up catching it.
Karl Friston, a neuroscientist at University College London, put it well recently: there is some kind of immunological "dark matter" out there stopping the virus from infecting as many of us as had first been feared. No one is quite sure what it is, but it does seem to exist. Sunetra Gupta, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at Oxford University has made the same argument: that the virus has followed the same pattern worldwide, irrespective of various lockdown policies. Immunity, she says, is more likely to explain its demise.
Yonathan Freund, a professor of emergency medicine at the Sorbonne, has gone further and said a second wave can now be ruled out.
"Many of us realised that a good number of the population do not seem able to contract the virus," he said recently. "It's not clear why, but that's how it is." The immunological "dark matter" again. His conclusion: lockdown was vital, but the epidemic is over. To test his theory, he says, end lockdown now. "Closely monitor what happens. If it starts again, we will see it very quickly and take measures."Quote:
We have enough data on Covid deaths to be able to work backwards, and estimate just how far the virus was spreading. The Norwegians did this last week and found that the virus peaked several days before lockdown. It was, for them, a big finding with big implications: in retrospect, says their health chief, lockdown was not needed. The virus could probably have been controlled with far lighter measures.
Now, the same study has been done for England and Wales. Prof Simon Wood of Bristol University shows the virus was falling fairly quickly by the time of lockdown, having peaked five days earlier. An important point, he says, when considering the "ethical" issues of a second lockdown and whether it would claim more life than it saves. But his study, like all such studies, emphasises how much we still don't know.
It's possible the virus is being halted by immunological dark materials. It's also possible that these dark materials don't exist, and that we are susceptible to a second wave. We can say that no country that has reopened has seen an overwhelming resurgence of the virus and that the world has decided that the greater risk lies in staying locked down. The doubt looks like being something we'll all have to live with.
Quote:
Data since the beginning of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, in January has shown that men are more likely to die after getting coronavirus. In the UK, a report this week from Public Health England found that working-age males were twice as likely as females to die after being diagnosed with Covid-19.
Until recently, scientists have been at a loss at why this might be, pointing to factors such as lifestyle, smoking, and immune system differences between the sexes. But increasingly they believe it could be because androgens - male sex hormones like testosterone - may play a part not only in hair loss, but also in boosting the ability of coronavirus to attack cells.
This raises the possibility that treatments suppressing these hormones, such as those used for baldness as well as diseases like prostate cancer, could be used to slow the virus down, giving patients time to fight it off.
"We think androgens or male hormones are definitely the gateway for the virus to enter our cells," said Professor Wambier.
As well as the trial being discussed using baldness drugs in the US, a separate trial has been launched by Matthew Rettig, an oncologist at UC Los Angeles, in 200 veterans in Los Angeles, Seattle and New York, using prostate cancer drugs.
The trials follow two small studies in Spain led by Professor Wambier, which found that a disproportionately high number of men with male pattern baldness were admitted to hospital with Covid-19.
In one study, 79 per cent of the men suffering with Covid-19 in three Madrid hospitals were bald. The study of 122 patients, published in the Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology, followed an earlier piece of work among 41 patients in Spanish hospitals, which found 71 per cent were bald. The background rate of baldness in white men of a similar age to the patients studied is between 31-53 per cent. A similar correlation was found in the study among the smaller numbers of women with hair loss linked to androgens.
https://arthritis-research.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/ar275194chem said:
Or why smokers are less affected? Because they are constantly dealing with respiratory crap. I've been wondering since the beginning if their might be some sliver of people who virtually never get sick who might just get blown away by Covid-19 due the immune system overreaction and lack of antibodies from every other creeping crud.
twk said:
This hits too close to home:
Bald men at higher risk of severe case of Covid-19, research findsQuote:
Data since the beginning of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, in January has shown that men are more likely to die after getting coronavirus. In the UK, a report this week from Public Health England found that working-age males were twice as likely as females to die after being diagnosed with Covid-19.
Until recently, scientists have been at a loss at why this might be, pointing to factors such as lifestyle, smoking, and immune system differences between the sexes. But increasingly they believe it could be because androgens - male sex hormones like testosterone - may play a part not only in hair loss, but also in boosting the ability of coronavirus to attack cells.
This raises the possibility that treatments suppressing these hormones, such as those used for baldness as well as diseases like prostate cancer, could be used to slow the virus down, giving patients time to fight it off.
"We think androgens or male hormones are definitely the gateway for the virus to enter our cells," said Professor Wambier.
As well as the trial being discussed using baldness drugs in the US, a separate trial has been launched by Matthew Rettig, an oncologist at UC Los Angeles, in 200 veterans in Los Angeles, Seattle and New York, using prostate cancer drugs.
The trials follow two small studies in Spain led by Professor Wambier, which found that a disproportionately high number of men with male pattern baldness were admitted to hospital with Covid-19.
In one study, 79 per cent of the men suffering with Covid-19 in three Madrid hospitals were bald. The study of 122 patients, published in the Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology, followed an earlier piece of work among 41 patients in Spanish hospitals, which found 71 per cent were bald. The background rate of baldness in white men of a similar age to the patients studied is between 31-53 per cent. A similar correlation was found in the study among the smaller numbers of women with hair loss linked to androgens.
74OA said:
The scientist in charge of Sweden's virus strategy now expressing doubts about it: WAVERING
Quote:
Until now, Tegnell had argued that the long-term nature of the COVID-19 pandemic required a more sustainable response than severe and sudden lockdowns. Despite criticism from abroad, Tegnell's strategy enjoyed widespread support in Sweden.
But with many other European Union countries now rolling back their lockdowns after appearing to bring COVID-19 under control, there are signs that Sweden may be left behind. That includes the freedom of movement of its citizens, as some EU countries restrict access to people coming from what are deemed high-risk COVID zones.
What's more, there's so far limited evidence that Sweden's decision to leave much of its society open will support the economy. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson recently warned that Sweden is facing its worst economic crisis since World War II, with GDP set to slump 7% in 2020, roughly as much as the rest of the EU.
Quote:
The epidemiologist who led Sweden's controversial COVID-19 response, which did not involve a strict lockdown, now says that the country should have done more to stop the spread of the virus, according to news reports.
"If we were to run into the same disease, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would end up doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done," Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist of the Public Health Agency of Sweden, told Swedish Radio on June 3, according to Reuters.
Quote:
well to be fair
