very well put hopefully we can get some data on what level of exposure has occurred. I think you are right and Given the data there is NO reasonable theory that would get to "Herd Immunity already exists in CA and soon it will exist everywhere.". that being said hope we are both wrong and there is some missing facts and we are well on our way to herd immunity.PJYoung said:
Hospitalizations didnt surge in December or January.
Zero test samples from January tested positive.
People keep bringing this flawed idea up with absolutely zero evidence to back up their claims hoping it means the virus isnt that deadly and we are already well on our way to herd immunity. I wish it were true but there is no reason to believe it is.
Was COVID-19 in California in December?
18,694 Views |
122 Replies |
Last: 5 yr ago by evestor1
84AGEC said:
Why was this person identified
Aa I recall he had symptoms and due to his history he was tested and the samples sent to the CDC.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
evestor1 said:Quote:
America's "patient zero" arrived from Wuhan on January 15th in Seattle, Washington. We've had other initial introductions of other strains from Europe since then. As had been clearly demonstrated, all current COVID isolates can be genetically traced back to their initial introductions into the population.
To make the claim that COVID could not have been here prior to January is the only claim the data supports.
What claim can be made over citizens' speculative widespread respiratory issues in Nov-Dec? I am under the assumption that no cv19 testing was done. Am I allowed to say my data supports that there was something being missed?
There were no "widespread respiratory issues in Nov-Dec", there was simply annual respiratory illness season. Every year millions of people present with some combination of runny nose, cough, fever, headache, myalgias, etc. during cold and flu season, no etiology is identified (usually because we don't check for one) and most get better on their own. Even the majority of flu cases are not definitively diagnosed with a test, and the rapid flu used in outpatient settings missed 30% of cases at least. Additionally there are many pathogens which can cause an illness with similar severity.
The only difference is this year COVID broke out and suddenly everyone is recalling these episodes when in normal years they are quickly forgotten and not deeply analyzed. In short, it's recall bias.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
You had the flu or metapneumovirus or some other respiratory virus. Flu tests are notoriously unreliable. The in house rapid flu tests are only like 50 to 70% sensitive so the false negative rate is really high.evestor1 said:Quote:
America's "patient zero" arrived from Wuhan on January 15th in Seattle, Washington. We've had other initial introductions of other strains from Europe since then. As had been clearly demonstrated, all current COVID isolates can be genetically traced back to their initial introductions into the population.
To make the claim that COVID could not have been here prior to January is the only claim the data supports.
To make the claim that COVID was in the USA prior to January is definitely supported by the data you are using.
What claim can be made over citizens' speculative widespread respiratory issues in Nov-Dec? I am under the assumption that no cv19 testing was done. Am I allowed to say my data supports that there was something being missed?
Quote:
Your coughing and shortness of breath in December was not due to CV unless you happened to be in Wuhan at that time.
I did not have CV. Nor did I have syptoms. I am also a firm believer of "whatever the doctor says is right." I have two physicians in immediate family and will always believe in their education and experience.
However, I have seen no evidence of CV being non-existent in 2019 USA. I have only seen lack of evidence being shown as FACT.
I do not need to be a healthcar professional to state [no data] is not a rock solid conclusion.
Quote:
Your coughing and shortness of breath in December was not due to CV unless you happened to be in Wuhan at that time.
I did not have CV. Nor did I have syptoms. I am also a firm believer of "whatever the doctor says is right." I have two physicians in immediate family and always 100% believe in their education and experience.
However, I have seen no evidence of CV being non-existent in 2019 USA. I have only seen lack of evidence.
I do not think it is crazy to state that having *no data* is not a rock solid conclusion.
Edit - my family had a two month issue with respiratory issues (not me)
I am not pointing fingers that my family had cv19.
I am not pointing fingers that my family had cv19.
evestor1 said:Quote:
Your coughing and shortness of breath in December was not due to CV unless you happened to be in Wuhan at that time.
I did not have CV. Nor did I have syptoms. I am also a firm believer of "whatever the doctor says is right." I have two physicians in immediate family and always 100% believe in their education and experience.
However, I have seen no evidence of CV being non-existent in 2019 USA. I have only seen lack of evidence.
I do not think it is crazy to state that having *no data* is not a rock solid conclusion.
You are LITERALLY trying to prove a negative.
"Lack of evidence" of something being here IS evidence of something NOT being here.
It seems like you'll only be convinced if you find a large number of test results (from tests that didn't exist at that time in areas that didn't know about or care about CV at that time) which is to say you will never find any evidence to satisfy your disbelief.
The canary in the CoVid coal mine is a nursing home. The first canary to feels the effects of CoVid was in Washington.
If it was spreading in California earlier, it would have impacted a nursing home there.
If it was spreading in California earlier, it would have impacted a nursing home there.
evestor1 said:Quote:
Your coughing and shortness of breath in December was not due to CV unless you happened to be in Wuhan at that time.
I did not have CV. Nor did I have syptoms. I am also a firm believer of "whatever the doctor says is right." I have two physicians in immediate family and always 100% believe in their education and experience.
However, I have seen no evidence of CV being non-existent in 2019 USA. I have only seen lack of evidence.
I do not think it is crazy to state that having *no data* is not a rock solid conclusion.
But we do have data. Moreover, the positive claim "it was here before January" is the one for which evidence must be presented to be accepted. Otherwise the null hypothesis is the default.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Quote:
It seems like you'll only be convinced if you find a large number of test results (from tests that didn't exist at that time in areas that didn't know about or care about CV at that time) which is to say you will never find any evidence to satisfy your disbelief.
Yes - that is the point.
JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:evestor1 said:Quote:
Your coughing and shortness of breath in December was not due to CV unless you happened to be in Wuhan at that time.
I did not have CV. Nor did I have syptoms. I am also a firm believer of "whatever the doctor says is right." I have two physicians in immediate family and always 100% believe in their education and experience.
However, I have seen no evidence of CV being non-existent in 2019 USA. I have only seen lack of evidence.
I do not think it is crazy to state that having *no data* is not a rock solid conclusion.
You are LITERALLY trying to prove a negative.
"Lack of evidence" of something being here IS evidence of something NOT being here.
It seems like you'll only be convinced if you find a large number of test results (from tests that didn't exist at that time in areas that didn't know about or care about CV at that time) which is to say you will never find any evidence to satisfy your disbelief.
Easily the most prevalent fallacy seen in any kind of debate. "You can't prove that didn't happen/doesn't exist".
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
evestor1 said:Quote:
It seems like you'll only be convinced if you find a large number of test results (from tests that didn't exist at that time in areas that didn't know about or care about CV at that time) which is to say you will never find any evidence to satisfy your disbelief.
Yes - that is the point.
Then what are we doing here? You might as well be asking us to prove Odin doesn't exist.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
I think this is the correct interpretation. message. Anecdotally people may have had a coronavirus, just not this coronavirus. The problem is the the messaging; People make these ascertains are being shot down with tweets and reports that they dont understand. It's kind of like when someone asks "Does God exist?" and you respond with 'Of course, just read this." and hand the questioner a Bible. If the messengers could simplify, personalize and stop with ad hom attacks that would be great.Quote:
You had the flu or metapneumovirus or some other respiratory virus. Flu tests are notoriously unreliable. The in house rapid flu tests are only like 50 to 70% sensitive so the false negative rate is really high.
Question: If you were exposed to one of those similar coronaviruses back in Q4, does any built immunity or antibodies help with COVID19 symptoms? Does that make sense, am I asking the right question? I guess does getting a different coronovirus in late 2019 or early 2020 help protect a person from C-19?
This assumes there were no asymptotic persons before. Or those who thought they only had a virus other than 19.
The odds of catching the first person.
The odds of catching the first person.
94chem said:
You have to follow the logic of the truthers here. Some of them are starting to do math. They're looking at the infection numbers, and they're realizing that even with greatly relaxed restrictions (think Sweden), it's still difficult to find the infection rate necessary to confer herd immunity. Given the R0 values, we'd need to infect a minimum of 40% of the population, probably much more...much more. The truthers don't have the numbers, but if they can get some evidence that half of us have already had it, they can get the numbers they need. One big problem, though...as nice of a story as it would be, it didn't happen. Good luck to the truthers, though. Just play fair with the numbers. Math doesn't have an opinion.
Except math and virology are not the same thing.
Math can't be based on statistics coming out of China or off of CNN/Foxnews.
Viruses dont follow political beliefs.
Philip J Fry said:
February is not December. Coming down with it back then is still unlikely, but at least possible.
Well, now there is email proof from Taiwanese goverment (addressed to WHO) that the Virus already had community spread in December.
So maybe it was here in the US too in December.
DadHammer said:
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-began-spreading-california-december
That local official is wrong
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
If it had been in the US that early we'd be seeing NYC, Italy, Spain type numbers allover the US
longeryak said:
If it had been in the US that early we'd be seeing NYC, Italy, Spain type numbers allover the US
We'd also see some sort of empiric evidence for it, and currently there is none.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Infection_Ag11 said:longeryak said:
If it had been in the US that early we'd be seeing NYC, Italy, Spain type numbers allover the US
We'd also see some sort of empiric evidence for it, and currently there is none.
You need a thesaurus because you're running out of ways to say the same thing different ways.
California has 40 million people. I'll bet none of them were leaving the state while it was spreading like wildfire there with no deaths last fall.
It wouldn't be the first time, that's for sure.
It just seems like the epitome of arrogance to believe you - and I don't mean you personally, but medical professionals in general - can pretend to know exactly when the virus arrived in any one country at any given time, how long it's been here, how many people have had a version of it before it officially "arrived", etc. It's not like the coronavirus got off the plane in NYC to be on the Ed Sullivan show in front of 50,000 screaming teenagers. Like many others on this board and around the world, I watched my wife and both kids get knocked on their asses by something that was a fever, labored breathing, cough, aches, exhausted back in January. Both kids missed 4 days of school, neither has ever missed more than 1. My wife missed 2-1/2 days of work, the only other time I've seen her miss work was when she got the swine flu in 2009. All tested negative for flu and for strep. I somehow never got it and displayed no symptoms.Infection_Ag11 said:MuckRaker96 said:
Dont argue with doctors, they are never wrong!
Doctors are wrong all the time, but genetics aren't.
I don't get the denmark flag beside my name on here, but I can't ignore the heaps of evidence that exist locally and nationally. Not that it ultimately matters, we're in the middle of it now one way or another, but just the steadfastness of denying it could have possibly been in this massive country earlier than believed is a weird thing to witness.
Infection_Ag11 said:JJMt said:
nm
The Twitter thread posted earlier is a good place to start.
The bottom line is we have sequenced thousands of samples in the US and can follow, step by step, the viral progression. All samples isolated from every part of California can be traced back to a known introduction into the population. There are no "mystery strains" that emerged from California independently and no isolated samples with uniquely divergent sequences.
What we're seeing in response to this information are various forms of the argument from incredulity, predetermination bias, etc. The best comparison I can give is the widespread denial of evolution in general. Many of the same arguments used on the internet to try and discredit a definitive genetic answer to the question "when did COVID arrive in the US" are derivations of very old, long since dismissed arguments against evolution by natural selection as the source of the diversity of life.
Just bumping this as it SHOULD have been the end of the thread.
Great post by the way. Even I could follow and understand it.
This happens to families every year, all over the country and the world, even down to negative flu and strep tests.Quote:
Like many others on this board and around the world, I watched my wife and both kids get knocked on their asses by something that was a fever, labored breathing, cough, aches, exhausted back in January. Both kids missed 4 days of school, neither has ever missed more than 1. My wife missed 2-1/2 days of work, the only other time I've seen her miss work was when she got the swine flu in 2009. All tested negative for flu and for strep. I somehow never got it and displayed no symptoms.
I had a sinus infection in February that was the worst of my life. I had a dry cough and was coughing so hard that it felt like I had ripped open a stomach muscle.panhandlefarmer said:
So what did everyone have back in the Fall? I know a lot of people that got very sick with a respiratory infection in Oct-Dec and tested negative for flu. I myself was in bed for a week with a dry unproductive cough and tested negative for flu. I felt like I had stuff in my lungs that wouldn't come up. I was coughing so hard for 2-3 weeks that I felt like a lung would come out. What was it? No one seems to know.
I was prescribed doxycycline for the sinus infection and it started clearing up after about 4 or 5 days, but the cough continued. More than a week after I finished the doxycline, I was thinking about going back to the doctor, but the cough finally let up quite a bit.
I got to thinking about it and realized that as far as I can remember, I never had such a bad dry cough before.
We've all seen the lists of symptoms for coronavirus. I had some of them but since I never developed a fever or any lung issues, I don't think that there is any chance that I had coronavirus.
MuckRaker96 said:It just seems like the epitome of arrogance to believe you - and I don't mean you personally, but medical professionals in general - can pretend to know exactly when the virus arrived in any one country at any given time, how long it's been here, how many people have had a version of it before it officially "arrived", etc. It's not like the coronavirus got off the plane in NYC to be on the Ed Sullivan show in front of 50,000 screaming teenagers. Like many others on this board and around the world, I watched my wife and both kids get knocked on their asses by something that was a fever, labored breathing, cough, aches, exhausted back in January. Both kids missed 4 days of school, neither has ever missed more than 1. My wife missed 2-1/2 days of work, the only other time I've seen her miss work was when she got the swine flu in 2009. All tested negative for flu and for strep. I somehow never got it and displayed no symptoms.Infection_Ag11 said:MuckRaker96 said:
Dont argue with doctors, they are never wrong!
Doctors are wrong all the time, but genetics aren't.
I don't get the denmark flag beside my name on here, but I can't ignore the heaps of evidence that exist locally and nationally. Not that it ultimately matters, we're in the middle of it now one way or another, but just the steadfastness of denying it could have possibly been in this massive country earlier than believed is a weird thing to witness.
It isn't arrogant to examine the real data.
Look at the surge in hospitalization in New York / New Jersey. With what we know about the timeline of virus spread it falls right in line with major spreaders being introduced in mid/late January. Same thing in Washington state.
The genetic data is also backing up the hospitalization data.
Of course, I would prefer that the virus was here earlier and more people are immune than we know as that would get us back to relatively normal life much sooner. Unfortunately though that's highly unlikely.
MuckRaker96 said:It just seems like the epitome of arrogance to believe you - and I don't mean you personally, but medical professionals in general - can pretend to know exactly when the virus arrived in any one country at any given time, how long it's been here, how many people have had a version of it before it officially "arrived", etc. It's not like the coronavirus got off the plane in NYC to be on the Ed Sullivan show in front of 50,000 screaming teenagers. Like many others on this board and around the world, I watched my wife and both kids get knocked on their asses by something that was a fever, labored breathing, cough, aches, exhausted back in January. Both kids missed 4 days of school, neither has ever missed more than 1. My wife missed 2-1/2 days of work, the only other time I've seen her miss work was when she got the swine flu in 2009. All tested negative for flu and for strep. I somehow never got it and displayed no symptoms.Infection_Ag11 said:MuckRaker96 said:
Dont argue with doctors, they are never wrong!
Doctors are wrong all the time, but genetics aren't.
I don't get the denmark flag beside my name on here, but I can't ignore the heaps of evidence that exist locally and nationally. Not that it ultimately matters, we're in the middle of it now one way or another, but just the steadfastness of denying it could have possibly been in this massive country earlier than believed is a weird thing to witness.
Like I said, you don't need to believe me. Being a doctor doesn't make anyone infallible or anything close to that. You just have to look at the data and realize there are mountains of hard evidence for arrival in the US in January and literally nothing but anecdotes and suspicion for arrival any time before that.
At the end of the day we have to base our lives and beliefs around what the preponderance of evidence supports, otherwise we literally can't trust in or believe anything.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
For now we can just guess it was here earlier until the antibody test is available to confirm. I have two sources in China, one from mainland at a casting facility and the other at an assembly plant in Shanghai, that said they had something going around in November and December and if that is the case it absolutely could have been in the US earlier. I also knew of a few people that were around Chinese nationals in December in the US and got got flu type symptoms in December where they lost their sense of taste.
With that being said until we have evidence that it was here earlier we have to assume what we can prove as of now. I think it was here earlier but that means squat, sometime in the near future, hopefully, we can have a reliable antibody test and confirm it was here before mid/late January. The doctors on here forget more in a day than most of us will understand about this virus so I trust the information they are giving. They understand the sequencing of the virus and we all get it third hand.
With that being said until we have evidence that it was here earlier we have to assume what we can prove as of now. I think it was here earlier but that means squat, sometime in the near future, hopefully, we can have a reliable antibody test and confirm it was here before mid/late January. The doctors on here forget more in a day than most of us will understand about this virus so I trust the information they are giving. They understand the sequencing of the virus and we all get it third hand.
Infection_Ag11 said:MuckRaker96 said:It just seems like the epitome of arrogance to believe you - and I don't mean you personally, but medical professionals in general - can pretend to know exactly when the virus arrived in any one country at any given time, how long it's been here, how many people have had a version of it before it officially "arrived", etc. It's not like the coronavirus got off the plane in NYC to be on the Ed Sullivan show in front of 50,000 screaming teenagers. Like many others on this board and around the world, I watched my wife and both kids get knocked on their asses by something that was a fever, labored breathing, cough, aches, exhausted back in January. Both kids missed 4 days of school, neither has ever missed more than 1. My wife missed 2-1/2 days of work, the only other time I've seen her miss work was when she got the swine flu in 2009. All tested negative for flu and for strep. I somehow never got it and displayed no symptoms.Infection_Ag11 said:MuckRaker96 said:
Dont argue with doctors, they are never wrong!
Doctors are wrong all the time, but genetics aren't.
I don't get the denmark flag beside my name on here, but I can't ignore the heaps of evidence that exist locally and nationally. Not that it ultimately matters, we're in the middle of it now one way or another, but just the steadfastness of denying it could have possibly been in this massive country earlier than believed is a weird thing to witness.
Like I said, you don't need to believe me. Being a doctor doesn't make anyone infallible or anything close to that. You just have to look at the data and realize there are mountains of hard evidence for arrival in the US in January and literally nothing but anecdotes and suspicion for arrival any time before that.
At the end of the day we have to base our lives and beliefs around what the preponderance of evidence supports, otherwise we literally can't trust in or believe anything.
Well said.
The lack of people dying with the tell-tale symptoms of CoVId should also be enough evidence that it wasn't here. It seems that some people want to believe very badly that we already have herd immunity and their minds will ignore the evidence to align with this alternate reality.
It should have. But we are in an age where willfull ignorance has somehow become a badge of honor
Infection_Ag11 said:MuckRaker96 said:It just seems like the epitome of arrogance to believe you - and I don't mean you personally, but medical professionals in general - can pretend to know exactly when the virus arrived in any one country at any given time, how long it's been here, how many people have had a version of it before it officially "arrived", etc. It's not like the coronavirus got off the plane in NYC to be on the Ed Sullivan show in front of 50,000 screaming teenagers. Like many others on this board and around the world, I watched my wife and both kids get knocked on their asses by something that was a fever, labored breathing, cough, aches, exhausted back in January. Both kids missed 4 days of school, neither has ever missed more than 1. My wife missed 2-1/2 days of work, the only other time I've seen her miss work was when she got the swine flu in 2009. All tested negative for flu and for strep. I somehow never got it and displayed no symptoms.Infection_Ag11 said:MuckRaker96 said:
Dont argue with doctors, they are never wrong!
Doctors are wrong all the time, but genetics aren't.
I don't get the denmark flag beside my name on here, but I can't ignore the heaps of evidence that exist locally and nationally. Not that it ultimately matters, we're in the middle of it now one way or another, but just the steadfastness of denying it could have possibly been in this massive country earlier than believed is a weird thing to witness.
Like I said, you don't need to believe me. Being a doctor doesn't make anyone infallible or anything close to that. You just have to look at the data and realize there are mountains of hard evidence for arrival in the US in January and literally nothing but anecdotes and suspicion for arrival any time before that.
At the end of the day we have to base our lives and beliefs around what the preponderance of evidence supports, otherwise we literally can't trust in or believe anything.
So if it was in January, can I ask you this.
My girlfriend worked at SHOT show in Vegas from January 19-24. She came back with a horrible flu. I got it as well and I haven't had the flu in 20 years, so I can't really compare the severity of it. Her co-worker was the only one who went to the hospital with the same thing and came back negative for the flu. Is it possible that was it?
I mean, the timing adds up to being possible, but my reservation is that so many attend SHOT show, so wouldn't we have heard more stories?
It's very unlikely, given how few cases there were in America in January. I would bet there were fewer than 5-10 cases of COVID-19 that were a result of community spread in January.
"Come to think of it, my dog had a dry cough back in 2017 that he's never had before. Vet said he didn't thin it was kennel cough. He didn't want to go on a walk for like 3-4 days which is very unlike him. I think this thing has been here since 2017."
Featured Stories
See All
11:13
14h ago
1.5k
6:46
10h ago
2.5k
Janneh's injury pops A&M's bubble hopes at SEC Tournament
by Kay Naegeli
9:46
8h ago
1.1k
Lessentine tosses complete game in run-rule of Louisiana Tech
by Kayla Gaither
11:13
13h ago
1.2k
26:55
1d ago
7.2k
Red-hot Dominguez, Griffen's career-high lead A&M to crucial win
by Olin Buchanan