https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241941651.html


Decision makers in Austin deserve credit. Many lives were saved and if they had the event, Austin and San Antonio might be hotspots right now.

How do we know this? Florida had events during a similar time frame to the SXSW and they're really struggling right now. Not to mention, all of the people who went to Florida, came back home, got the virus, and spread it in their respective states.

Yeah I have to agree. Cancelling that and things like chili fest we're likely very good decisions at this point.

Agreed. Same goes for NBA games and March Madness.

Thousands of boisterous fans in close proximity seems to be a recipe for disaster.

Same goes for the HLSR.

Fiesta in SA too

What are you talking about? Florida with 452 deaths and TX with 276. Both pretty much zero relative to population size.

452 deaths is "really struggling"?

Jack Boyett said:

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What are you talking about? Florida with 452 deaths and TX with 276. Both pretty much zero relative to population size.

452 deaths is "really struggling"?

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20k cases and 3k in hospitals with this. Yes, that's struggling.

I guess. I remember when millions were going to die. Floridians on that day would be high five-ing knowing that on 4/12 they would be looking at 452.

Jack Boyett said:

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I guess. I remember when millions were going to die. Floridians on that day would be high five-ing knowing that on 4/12 they would be looking at 452.

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That's a complete mischaracterization of anything that has been said. People have said it is possible that millions die IF NO ACTION WAS TAKEN TO STOP THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS. If you haven't notice, actions have been taken to stop the spread of the virus.

Florida is struggling right now. They are still 2 weeks out from the projected peak burden on the healthcare system. So saying they've only got 452 dead right now is irrelevant.

Maybe your actions helped. Maybe it just wasn't that nefarious.

Gordo14 said:

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Jack Boyett said:

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I guess. I remember when millions were going to die. Floridians on that day would be high five-ing knowing that on 4/12 they would be looking at 452.

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That's a complete mischaracterization of anything that has been said. People have said it is possible that millions die IF NO ACTION WAS TAKEN TO STOP THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS. If you haven't notice, actions have been taken to stop the spread of the virus.

Florida is struggling right now. They are still 2 weeks out from the projected peak burden on the healthcare system. So saying they've only got 452 dead right now is irrelevant.

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1. True re: "millions," but you had models just two weeks ago calling for 240K deaths nationally. Those FULLY accounted for all of the action taken. Still absurdly wrong. Jack's overall point stands.

2. Everyone is always constantly two weeks away from peak day. Forgive people for not totally buying in anymore.

Gordo14 said:

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Jack Boyett said:

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I guess. I remember when millions were going to die. Floridians on that day would be high five-ing knowing that on 4/12 they would be looking at 452.

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That's a complete mischaracterization of anything that has been said. People have said it is possible that millions die IF NO ACTION WAS TAKEN TO STOP THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS. If you haven't notice, actions have been taken to stop the spread of the virus.

Florida is struggling right now. They are still 2 weeks out from the projected peak burden on the healthcare system. So saying they've only got 452 dead right now is irrelevant.

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I agree with you. Honestly, Looking at just deaths is stupid.

People have to analyze the big picture. This virus has caused more economic harm than it has caused actual harm to the human population.

Florida's hospital system could possibly be overrun. Louisiana is another example, they carried through with Mardi Gras and it hurt them tremendously. They are way worse off then Texas despite having a much smaller population then Texas.

The strain on the medical system is something that people often overlook.

Jack Boyett said:

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Maybe your actions helped. Maybe it just wasn't that nefarious.

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It seems nefarious enough in Florida.

Florida is 4th in population. Are they above or below 4th in case counts and fatalities?

If below, it's a stretch to apply "really struggling" as a descriptor.

aginlakeway said:

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Jack Boyett said:

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What are you talking about? Florida with 452 deaths and TX with 276. Both pretty much zero relative to population size.

452 deaths is "really struggling"?

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20k cases and 3k in hospitals with this. Yes, that's struggling.

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If you think this is struggling then better buckle up as you will be social distancing for years at this rate.

wargograw said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Jack Boyett said:

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I guess. I remember when millions were going to die. Floridians on that day would be high five-ing knowing that on 4/12 they would be looking at 452.

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That's a complete mischaracterization of anything that has been said. People have said it is possible that millions die IF NO ACTION WAS TAKEN TO STOP THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS. If you haven't notice, actions have been taken to stop the spread of the virus.

Florida is struggling right now. They are still 2 weeks out from the projected peak burden on the healthcare system. So saying they've only got 452 dead right now is irrelevant.

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1. True re: "millions," but you had models just two weeks ago calling for 240K deaths nationally. Those FULLY accounted for all of the action taken. Still absurdly wrong. Jack's overall point stands.

2. Everyone is always constantly two weeks away from peak day. Forgive people for not totally buying in anymore.

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1. There's variables they had to approximate to come up with the high end estimate of that model you are referring to (240k was never implied to be a likely outcome - it was the high end). The key variable that we probably outperformed on was "social distancing conformance". That's something that has to be approximated well in advance for the model. They used a 50% as conformance for the model and their belief is that we've done more like 90% as a society. It shows that our actions still push the models downward, which is a great thing and not necessarily an indictment of the model. Maybe their model being released pushed peoples conformance of social distancing from 50% to 90%. It's a multivariable problem, one of which is our actions after the model is released. Again the purpose of the model is to make notional comclusions about outcomes and what actions should be. Reminder the model said 100k was equally likely as 240k. We will likely have 60k deaths by August. That isn't far from 100k on an exponential curve (if we acted 3 days later we would have likely reached 100k deaths). You are completely missing the point.

2. No that's bull***** New York is not 2 weeks away. In fact most models suggest it's passed peak by a day or so. You're just too busy arguing over things you've heard you're unwilling to understand the details. The details matter.

aginlakeway said:

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No Pressure said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Jack Boyett said:

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What are you talking about? Florida with 452 deaths and TX with 276. Both pretty much zero relative to population size.

452 deaths is "really struggling"?

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20k cases and 3k in hospitals with this. Yes, that's struggling.

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If you think this is struggling then better buckle up as you will be social distancing for years at this rate.

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I'd gladly do it if it helps.

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Great. That's a personal choice. I strongly recommend that all old/sick/stressed out stay put until they feel comfortable to come out.

The rest of the society is at minimal risk and can safely proceed.

No Pressure said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Jack Boyett said:

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What are you talking about? Florida with 452 deaths and TX with 276. Both pretty much zero relative to population size.

452 deaths is "really struggling"?

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20k cases and 3k in hospitals with this. Yes, that's struggling.

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If you think this is struggling then better buckle up as you will be social distancing for years at this rate.

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Nobody is suggesting that. That's a strawman.

Gordo14 said:

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No Pressure said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Jack Boyett said:

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What are you talking about? Florida with 452 deaths and TX with 276. Both pretty much zero relative to population size.

452 deaths is "really struggling"?

---

20k cases and 3k in hospitals with this. Yes, that's struggling.

---

If you think this is struggling then better buckle up as you will be social distancing for years at this rate.

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Nobody is suggesting that. That's a strawman.

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You suggested that Florida is somehow struggling. It is not. The amount of deaths it will realize are statistically inconsequential. Based on the models that everyone quotes and that are consistently overestimating impact show that hospitals / ICUs won't be anywhere near overrun.

No Pressure said:

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Gordo14 said:

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No Pressure said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Jack Boyett said:

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What are you talking about? Florida with 452 deaths and TX with 276. Both pretty much zero relative to population size.

452 deaths is "really struggling"?

---

20k cases and 3k in hospitals with this. Yes, that's struggling.

---

If you think this is struggling then better buckle up as you will be social distancing for years at this rate.

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Nobody is suggesting that. That's a strawman.

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You suggested that Florida is somehow struggling. It is not. The amount of deaths it will realize are statistically inconsequential. Based on the models that everyone quotes and that are consistently overestimating impact show that hospitals / ICUs won't be anywhere near overrun.

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A place can struggle with the medical burden without being overrun.

Gordo14 said:

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No Pressure said:

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Gordo14 said:

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No Pressure said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Jack Boyett said:

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What are you talking about? Florida with 452 deaths and TX with 276. Both pretty much zero relative to population size.

452 deaths is "really struggling"?

---

20k cases and 3k in hospitals with this. Yes, that's struggling.

---

If you think this is struggling then better buckle up as you will be social distancing for years at this rate.

---

Nobody is suggesting that. That's a strawman.

---

You suggested that Florida is somehow struggling. It is not. The amount of deaths it will realize are statistically inconsequential. Based on the models that everyone quotes and that are consistently overestimating impact show that hospitals / ICUs won't be anywhere near overrun.

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A place can struggle with the medical burden without being overrun.

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Yep. Unsure why that's so hard to understand.

What evidence do you have that Florida is struggling with the medical burden?

Example of the goalpost being moved. We weren't attempting to keep the hospitals from struggling. This whole terrible mistake was to keep the hospitals from being overrun.

The perfect solution would be to keep the hospitals full and continue life as close to normal as possible.

The first article about hospitals under financial strain is true primarily where hospitals are empty and lacking in the necessary revenue of high occupancy and scheduled surgeries. Not where they are full.

The second article bemoans "About 60% of the state's 6,000 ICU beds are already taken". Ok. Firstly, what does that number look like typically? Secondly, what does that matter? The IHME model projects Florida to have nowhere near a shortage of ICU beds.

The third article is about Spring Break impact on spread. It's a compendium of anecdotes and political armchair quarterbacking. It presents no evidence that Florida is facing some unmanageable burden.


So it's not that I don't believe the articles. It's that the articles do nothing to support your claim that Florida is struggling with the medical burden.

Try again.

Jack Boyett said:

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Example of the goalpost being moved. We weren't attempting to keep the hospitals from struggling. This whole terrible mistake was to keep the hospitals from being overrun.

The perfect solution would be to keep the hospitals full and continue life as close to normal as possible.

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Ok. You think whatever you think. Probably didn't watch 60 Minutes tonight and the interviewa from healthcare workers in NYC talking about how bad it is. How ****ty the PPE situation is and how many healthcare workers are getting sick. How healthcare workers are rewearing masks for days and forced to wear New York Yankees panchos as PPE. And the PPE situation isn't unique to New York. I guarantee **** like that is happening everywhere where COVID-19 is a problem. Also completely ignoring the fact that if we did nothing the hospitals would have been overrun. The reason they aren't being overrhn in Florida is the very actions you are criticizing as being a "terrible mistake". Frankly, at this point you're just being obtuse.

Do you know how impossible the "perfect scenario" (for you and only you, because you don't have to deal with it) is with a novel virus that is highly contagious? There is no way you can perfectly load manage it.

See now you're attributing claims to me that I did not make. Clearly NYC is under strain. You should be better than trying to fabricate a strawman.


Now...

You claimed Florida was *currently struggling*. You have presented no evidence that is the case.

In the absence of such evidence, you are now saying "We'll see in 2 weeks". What happens in two weeks has no bearing on where Florida is today.

Your claim was about the present. And you've failed to substantiate it.



The sum total of your "argument" is copying and pasting three URLs, and when the content of those URLs is pointed out as not supporting your claim, rather than addressing the material shortcomings, you weakly declare that I am "excusing it all away".