Keegan99 said:

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See now you're attributing claims to me that I did not make. Clearly NYC is under strain. You should be better than trying to fabricate a strawman.


Now...

You claimed Florida was *currently struggling*. You have presented no evidence that is the case.

In the absence of such evidence, you are now saying "We'll see in 2 weeks". What happens in two weeks has no bearing on where Florida is today.

Your claim was about the present. And you've failed to substantiate it.



The sum total of your "argument" is copying and pasting three URLs, and when the content of those URLs is pointed out as not supporting your claim, rather than addressing the material shortcomings, you weakly declare that I am "excusing it all away".

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Stop! Stop! He's already dead!

Keegan99 said:

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See now you're attributing claims to me that I did not make. Clearly NYC is under strain. You should be better than trying to fabricate a strawman.


Now...

You claimed Florida was *currently struggling*. You have presented no evidence that is the case.

In the absence of such evidence, you are now saying "We'll see in 2 weeks". What happens in two weeks has no bearing on where Florida is today.

Your claim was about the present. And you've failed to substantiate it.



The sum total of your "argument" is copying and pasting three URLs, and when the content of those URLs is pointed out as not supporting your claim, rather than addressing the material shortcomings, you weakly declare that I am "excusing it all away".

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You have presented no evidence they aren't, so they must be struggling. See we can both play this game. Look I am not in the Florida hospitals, nor have I claimed to be. But I have seen plenty of evidence of what struggling is. Struggling is dealing with a few COVID-19 patients, some of them intubated. Struggling is not having enough PPE - which is undoubtedly happening everywhere around the country. And I wasn't presenting strawman. I clearly stated the example I was discussing was about New York, and that it is representative, although not as bad, of how far behind we are on PPE everywhere. I have plenty of anecdotal evidence from friends in Louisiana and Bostom that I could throw out here, about their struggles in regards to both PPE and workload... But it's easy for you, who has nothing at stake in the matter, to minimize their struggles. There are 3,000 hospitilizations in Florida for a very contagious virus that requires a lot of medical attention with very limited PPE. That is struggling. Maybe you think that's a typical afternoon or maybe you need people dying in the hallways to be struggling to you. But again, you clearly have a different definition of struggling than I do.

I read the articles. I know that they were tangentially related to the crisis and mostly forward looking. The point is that no major news organization is highlighting the situation in Florida right now. So I'm going to pull the forward looking articles and paste them as sources of what is to come.

lda6339 said:

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Keegan99 said:

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See now you're attributing claims to me that I did not make. Clearly NYC is under strain. You should be better than trying to fabricate a strawman.


Now...

You claimed Florida was *currently struggling*. You have presented no evidence that is the case.

In the absence of such evidence, you are now saying "We'll see in 2 weeks". What happens in two weeks has no bearing on where Florida is today.

Your claim was about the present. And you've failed to substantiate it.



The sum total of your "argument" is copying and pasting three URLs, and when the content of those URLs is pointed out as not supporting your claim, rather than addressing the material shortcomings, you weakly declare that I am "excusing it all away".

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Stop! Stop! He's already dead!

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Haha good one.

Gordo14 said:

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wargograw said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Jack Boyett said:

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I guess. I remember when millions were going to die. Floridians on that day would be high five-ing knowing that on 4/12 they would be looking at 452.

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That's a complete mischaracterization of anything that has been said. People have said it is possible that millions die IF NO ACTION WAS TAKEN TO STOP THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS. If you haven't notice, actions have been taken to stop the spread of the virus.

Florida is struggling right now. They are still 2 weeks out from the projected peak burden on the healthcare system. So saying they've only got 452 dead right now is irrelevant.

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1. True re: "millions," but you had models just two weeks ago calling for 240K deaths nationally. Those FULLY accounted for all of the action taken. Still absurdly wrong. Jack's overall point stands.

2. Everyone is always constantly two weeks away from peak day. Forgive people for not totally buying in anymore.

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1. There's variables they had to approximate to come up with the high end estimate of that model you are referring to (240k was never implied to be a likely outcome - it was the high end). The key variable that we probably outperformed on was "social distancing conformance". That's something that has to be approximated well in advance for the model. They used a 50% as conformance for the model and their belief is that we've done more like 90% as a society. It shows that our actions still push the models downward, which is a great thing and not necessarily an indictment of the model. Maybe their model being released pushed peoples conformance of social distancing from 50% to 90%. It's a multivariable problem, one of which is our actions after the model is released. Again the purpose of the model is to make notional comclusions about outcomes and what actions should be. Reminder the model said 100k was equally likely as 240k. We will likely have 60k deaths by August. That isn't far from 100k on an exponential curve (if we acted 3 days later we would have likely reached 100k deaths). You are completely missing the point.

2. No that's bull***** New York is not 2 weeks away. In fact most models suggest it's passed peak by a day or so. You're just too busy arguing over things you've heard you're unwilling to understand the details. The details matter.

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1. If they really used 50% as their conformance number then they're just as stupid as I thought anyway. If anything people are conforming less now than they were when that model was released. Everyone was already bought in at that time (two weeks ago). So why use 50%?

2. Let me restate. Everyone other than NY is always 2 weeks away from peak day.

Gordo14 said:

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Keegan99 said:

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See now you're attributing claims to me that I did not make. Clearly NYC is under strain. You should be better than trying to fabricate a strawman.


Now...

You claimed Florida was *currently struggling*. You have presented no evidence that is the case.

In the absence of such evidence, you are now saying "We'll see in 2 weeks". What happens in two weeks has no bearing on where Florida is today.

Your claim was about the present. And you've failed to substantiate it.



The sum total of your "argument" is copying and pasting three URLs, and when the content of those URLs is pointed out as not supporting your claim, rather than addressing the material shortcomings, you weakly declare that I am "excusing it all away".

---

You have presented no evidence they aren't, so they must be struggling. See we can both play this game. Look I am not in the Florida hospitals, nor have I claimed to be. But I have seen plenty of evidence of what struggling is. Struggling is dealing with a few COVID-19 patients, some of them intubated. Struggling is not having enough PPE - which is undoubtedly happening everywhere around the country. And I wasn't presenting strawman. I clearly stated the example I was discussing was about New York, and that it is representative, although not as bad, of how far behind we are on PPE everywhere. I have plenty of anecdotal evidence from friends in Louisiana and Bostom that I could throw out here, about their struggles in regards to both PPE and workload... But it's easy for you, who has nothing at stake in the matter, to minimize their struggles. There are 3,000 hospitilizations in Florida for a very contagious virus that requires a lot of medical attention with very limited PPE. That is struggling. Maybe you think that's a typical afternoon or maybe you need people dying in the hallways to be struggling to you. But again, you clearly have a different definition of struggling than I do.

I read the articles. I know that they were tangentially related to the crisis and mostly forward looking. The point is that no major news organization is highlighting the situation in Florida right now. So I'm going to pull the forward looking articles and paste them as sources of what is to come.

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Uh, that's not how this works. The onus isn't on Keegan to prove they're not overrun. "Not being overrun" is the default. If you can't prove that they ARE overrun (and thus far you manifestly have NOT), then we can assume they are not overrun.

The rest of your post is just a bunch of "look at me, I'm in the medical field and know people" stuff that really isn't helpful to this discussion.

Goodness. This thread

Jack Boyett said:

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Example of the goalpost being moved. We weren't attempting to keep the hospitals from struggling. This whole terrible mistake was to keep the hospitals from being overrun.

The perfect solution would be to keep the hospitals full and continue life as close to normal as possible.

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What are you talking about? We've been talking about "flattening the curve" since before all of these lockdown procedures were in place. Flattening the curve is all about reducing demand on hospitals so that they don't get overrun. It's literally been the primary focus since the get-go.

Now, whether you or I agree with the policies that have been put in place is a different story, but no one is moving goal posts by saying that the actions taken were to prevent hospitals from struggling.