AgGrad99 said:

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Not only widespread testing...but widespread repeated testing. You would pretty much have to keep testing the negative results (daily/weekly) until they do test positive. Then isolate them.

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Makes sense...But how?

We have 330 million people. We dont have the ability to test everyone repeatedly.

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You start with known cases and work backwards to known contacts.

Korea has done a good job with this. It isn't rocket science.

If you want people to get back to normal, now and the next time this happens (because there will be a next time) you contain the infect by testing, isolation and tracing.

Even if it costs the country a trillion dollars to put this infrastructure in place it would be a bargain compared to what we are doing.

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Korea has done a good job with this. It isn't rocket science.

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Yes. But Korea had tests, and were implementing them before they had a significant number of cases. That made a huge difference...and is a bit different situation than what we face now.

And it actually is fairly complicated...hence the reason most the world is struggling to contain it, and remains on lock down. No need to be condescending. Just trying to discuss, and learn.

AgGrad99 said:

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Korea has done a good job with this. It isn't rocket science.

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Yes. But Korea had tests, and were implementing them before they had a significant number of cases. That made a huge difference...and is a bit different situation than what we face now.

And it actually is fairly complicated...hence the reason most the world is struggling to contain it, and remains on lock down. No need to be condescending. Just trying to discuss, and learn.

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The current mitigation measures are in place to get our number and trajectory of cases down to a level where testing and contact tracing becomes doable.

They actually went into action before they had cases. Most articles about their handling of COVID mention they'd prepared testing before the outbreak occurred, which helped curb their cases initially. They were much better prepared than most countries around the world who are playing catch up after they started getting cases.

I know they went into action proactively. It doesn't change how big of a **** up our response has been.

Why did have we develop our own tests? Why didn't we just license the tech from Korea? Why did we wait for months to say "oh snap we need to be making ppe around the clock"? Why didn't we immediately start encouraging masks?

We let this get out of hand and now we have 2 solutions

1)let 1-5% of the population die quickly.
2)accept the fact that we ****ed up, envoke a war mindset and test, trace and forcibly isolate the infected. While mandating under threat of imprisonment mask and social distancing.

The current half measures are going to cause this to drag on for years and will cost more money and opportunities than catching up and emulating Korea would ever costs.

I agree.

I was more interested with what we do going forward, given our current circumstances (however we got here).

Either way, hope we learned some hard lessons going forward.

96AustinAg said:

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The percentage of people who are asymptomatic but infectious is undetermined, but thought to be substantial. Contract tracing would get you tested, and you might find out you are an asymptomatic carrier and quarantine, where you otherwise might not have.

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Lots of people Hope the asymtomatic infected and recovered is substantial, it is definitely much larger than the number of positive cases.

At 10x it is 6 million people and about 2% of the population even at 50x it only 10% of the population
which is a long way from herd immunity levels

Duncan Idaho said:

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the problem is we need to be a millions of tests a day. 200,000/day is just about as worthless as zero/day. The key is surveillance testing a d it has to be paired with contact tracing.

If you show up at the hospital and test positive, they move on to testing your household, co-workers and others that you have had direct contact. Everyone that test positive, immediately goes into enforced and monitored quarentine. Not "go home and rest" but medical jail/house arrest.



Testing is key to containment and monitoring of spread, not to managing treatment

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Goodness gracious, you DO realize that this is (with minor exceptions) hurting people that are elderly with lower immune systems and individuals with comorbidities, right?

How about those folks self quarantine (like my parents and other family members/neighbors), and we support them, whilst the rest of us get back to work and a sense of normalcy, passing COVID to one another whilst building up immunity to it with minor to no symtoms.

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passing COVID to one another whilst building up immunity to it with minor to no symtoms.

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I am really not sure if you are serious.

1)You do realize what "minor symptoms" means? It means you don't require hospitalization.

2) there is growing support out of Korea that this isn't a one and done type of infection but that lasting imunity might not happen or worse, it reactivates. So think shingles but instead of itching, you can't breathe.

3)how do you plan on spreading it without it taking off? The only way you can do a controlled burn on something like this is to put even more draconian measures that Korea has.
4)the psychological scars that would happen as Millions of people die from this would shut down commerce more than any stay at home order.

Just to give some perspective on availability of testing, my wife's friend tested positive for COVID19. She is due to give birth in a couple of weeks. They will not test her again to see if she is testing negative before going into the hospital for delivery because there aren't enough tests. Don't you think that hospital staff delivering the baby would like to know whether she is still testing positive? One example of why we need to increase testing capacity.

You assume I do not work in an essential business, which I do, so unless you don't want any tractors on the road I can't sit eff down in my house. Everyone assumes around here, making an ass out of u and me!

Oh and yes I had a major water leak in my dishwasher so Home Depot was also an emergency.

AgGrad99 said:

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tysker said:

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Test everyone in the US?
Statistically speaking I dont think you need a population size anywhere that large to make an informed medical decision. Besides, even if we could create 330 million tests, it would take roughly 9.5 years to test everyone assuming we could test one person, per second continuously.

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. We're testing two per second right now

HotardAg07 said:

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. Neither of these tweets are surprising or new news.

Duncan Idaho said:

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passing COVID to one another whilst building up immunity to it with minor to no symtoms.

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I am really not sure if you are serious.

1)You do realize what "minor symptoms" means? It means you don't require hospitalization.

2) there is growing support out of Korea that this isn't a one and done type of infection but that lasting imunity might not happen or worse, it reactivates. So think shingles but instead of itching, you can't breathe.

3)how do you plan on spreading it without it taking off? The only way you can do a controlled burn on something like this is to put even more draconian measures that Korea has.
4)the psychological scars that would happen as Millions of people die from this would shut down commerce more than any stay at home order.

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No, minor symptoms are just that. Worst case like typical Flu-like symptoms. There are a substantive group of people with little or no symptoms that have it, hence the major delta between COVID cases and #s of hospitalization.

The ONLY reason I don't want to get COVID currently is out of concern for my "immuno-compromised neighbor" across the street (though she's been living this way all her life and knows how to self-quarantine and act in this virus environment) and my elderly parents (who we're still spending time with weakly over a dinner in our back yard.

Heck, I may have already caught it (I travel a fair amount in my job all over the US) and was asymptomatic.

lead said:

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HotardAg07 said:

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. Neither of these tweets are surprising or new news.

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And I'd like those broke down by comorbidities. It's a useless stat without it.

Here's an excellent example of the utility of testing.

With testing, the Navy would have known that the virus was rampant on the TR, despite 60% of those infected being asymptomatic, but nonetheless contagious.

Those without the virus could have been prioritized for PPE and those infected, but in non-essential jobs for simply sailing the TR, could have been compartamentalized as the ship headed for port.

The result would have flattened the curve of crew infection, rather than it spreading unabated and undetected.

SIAP

Duncan Idaho said:

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the problem is we need to be a millions of tests a day. 200,000/day is just about as worthless as zero/day. The key is surveillance testing a d it has to be paired with contact tracing.

If you show up at the hospital and test positive, they move on to testing your household, co-workers and others that you have had direct contact. Everyone that test positive, immediately goes into enforced and monitored quarentine. Not "go home and rest" but medical jail/house arrest.



Testing is key to containment and monitoring of spread, not to managing treatment

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I'm not a math wizard but based on our population, and the fact that someone can test negative one day, then be positive the next after being exposed to something, I'd guess we'd need testing at at least 10,000,000 per day.

Keller6Ag91 said:

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Duncan Idaho said:

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passing COVID to one another whilst building up immunity to it with minor to no symtoms.

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I am really not sure if you are serious.

1)You do realize what "minor symptoms" means? It means you don't require hospitalization.

2) there is growing support out of Korea that this isn't a one and done type of infection but that lasting imunity might not happen or worse, it reactivates. So think shingles but instead of itching, you can't breathe.

3)how do you plan on spreading it without it taking off? The only way you can do a controlled burn on something like this is to put even more draconian measures that Korea has.
4)the psychological scars that would happen as Millions of people die from this would shut down commerce more than any stay at home order.

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No, minor symptoms are just that. Worst case like typical Flu-like symptoms. There are a substantive group of people with little or no symptoms that have it, hence the major delta between COVID cases and #s of hospitalization.

The ONLY reason I don't want to get COVID currently is out of concern for my "immuno-compromised neighbor" across the street (though she's been living this way all her life and knows how to self-quarantine and act in this virus environment) and my elderly parents (who we're still spending time with weakly over a dinner in our back yard.

Heck, I may have already caught it (I travel a fair amount in my job all over the US) and was asymptomatic.

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I think his point is that, when you hear phrases like "most people will catch it and have minor symptoms", it doesn't mean what you're indicating here. It means 1-2 weeks of hell, but hell you endure at home.

I'm not giving an opinion on the approach, just saying that if our plan involves letting this course through the healthier ages (which may end up being what we need to do), it won't just be a few sneezes and coughs with a sore throat.

JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

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Keller6Ag91 said:

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Duncan Idaho said:

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passing COVID to one another whilst building up immunity to it with minor to no symtoms.

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I am really not sure if you are serious.

1)You do realize what "minor symptoms" means? It means you don't require hospitalization.

2) there is growing support out of Korea that this isn't a one and done type of infection but that lasting imunity might not happen or worse, it reactivates. So think shingles but instead of itching, you can't breathe.

3)how do you plan on spreading it without it taking off? The only way you can do a controlled burn on something like this is to put even more draconian measures that Korea has.
4)the psychological scars that would happen as Millions of people die from this would shut down commerce more than any stay at home order.

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No, minor symptoms are just that. Worst case like typical Flu-like symptoms. There are a substantive group of people with little or no symptoms that have it, hence the major delta between COVID cases and #s of hospitalization.

The ONLY reason I don't want to get COVID currently is out of concern for my "immuno-compromised neighbor" across the street (though she's been living this way all her life and knows how to self-quarantine and act in this virus environment) and my elderly parents (who we're still spending time with weakly over a dinner in our back yard.

Heck, I may have already caught it (I travel a fair amount in my job all over the US) and was asymptomatic.

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I think his point is that, when you hear phrases like "most people will catch it and have minor symptoms", it doesn't mean what you're indicating here. It means 1-2 weeks of hell, but hell you endure at home.

I'm not giving an opinion on the approach, just saying that if our plan involves letting this course through the healthier ages (which may end up being what we need to do), it won't just be a few sneezes and coughs with a sore throat.

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My point is the "minor" symptoms are flu-like symptoms at worst. Let's not hype this up for more than it is. If we tracked flu deaths like we're doing COVID, we'd be equally horrified and concerned. Still wondering why we havent.

The lines of severity are

Severe - you are in the ICU (most likely intubated)
Moderate - you require hospitalization (most likely due to requiring supplimental O2)
Mild - everything else

HotardAg07 said:

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Does this graph strike anybody else as misleading? You have one category that takes into account a range of 24 years and five others that take into a range of ten years. Anybody who thinks it appropriate to group 44 year olds in the same bracket as 20 year olds for medical purposes hasn't been 44.

A more equal way of displaying the data would be to show: 20-44 - 10%, and 45-69 - (32% to 58%)