I don't think there's a standard on that CFR calc. Some of the folks on the daily charts thread were using it but it makes sense. Today's positive test is going to be next week's fatality. Time to get there is probably in the 5-10 day range based on stuff I've seen.

There's a dashboard here that calculates CFR live based on a X days ago slider so you can see what it looks like with different variables. If you do deaths/todays cases it will look lower, if you do it for 10 days ago cases, it will be higher.

https://avatorl.org/covid-19/?page=CompareCountries3

Complete Idiot said:

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Moxley said:

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cone said:

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we know so little

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It is really critical to read the content of these papers. Not criticizing you, but the people tweeting about it and spreading misinformation.

The purpose of this paper was to determine how rapidly Covid can spread in homeless shelters with an aim to develop strategies to mitigate spread. In other words, they were actually investigating the effectiveness of temperature checks and symptom screenings.

They tested these people immediately after an outbreak at a shelter where 15 people had symptoms and were positive. They did not follow up on these asymptomatic people to see if they ended up developing symptoms. There is no information on how many of these people became ill later on.

No information can really be gleaned from this study other than the virus can spread quickly in close quarters, and temperature/symptom checks aren't really all that effective in determining who may be shedding the virus.

The primary conclusion from this paper is that testing should be done on a broader basis in homeless shelters as asymptomatic spread seems to be a very real thing.

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THANK YOU. I am so tired of people showing the text of a tweet as proof of something. Too many times I have actually clicked the link the random twitter person has embedded and it is some news article, Bloomberg or something, and then within that article is actually a link to the academic paper they are referring to. READ THAT, always. Do not rely on how the media person has decided to pick info or snippets out of the academic paper, and certainly don't rely on how some person on Twitter has decided to further play the telephone game by pulling key snippets out of the media article. Read the original report and draw your own conclusions.

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