Beat40 said:
The_Fox said:
Complete Idiot said:
The_Fox said:
Complete Idiot said:
Yes, please read the PDF which can be downloaded from the link provided.
The study seems fairly sound and it is great news to read the actual cases could be 50-85 times higher than the amount you actually tested positive (in that county). Documents the limitations and states assumptions.
The study does note that it still represents a very small portion of the population (see below), but definitely the CFR would change as a result of this find (study suggests 0.12-0.2%). All great news and I hope new and larger studies continue to confirm.
We conclude that based on seroprevalence sampling of a large regional population, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County was between 2.49% and 4.16% by early April. While this prevalence may be far smaller than the theoretical final size of the epidemic,27 it suggests that the number of infections is 50-85-fold larger than the number of cases currently detected in Santa Clara County. These new data should allow for better modeling of this pandemic and its progression under various scenarios of non-pharmaceutical interventions. While our study was limited to Santa Clara County, it demonstrates the feasibility of seroprevalence surveys of population samples now, and in the future, to inform our understanding of this pandemic's progression, project estimates of community vulnerability, and monitor infection fatality rates in different populations over time. It is also an important tool for reducing uncertainty about the state of the epidemic, which may have important public benefits.
If that 0.12-0.2% is correct. The people pulling for this shut down in the government need their asses beat and to be out of a job.
I don't know if it's that simple. You can't learn more at a later date and then state that decisions made early, with different or incomplete data, were so bad someone should be fired. Remember - nearly ALL countries went into shutdown. Maybe you are referring to worldwide governments but I sense you are referring to the local, state, and national governments in America. They didn't not behave uniquely in this. I get the stress and anger this situation may have caused many but it's a pandemic, looked way worse as far as how it spread that others in recent history, and people had incomplete data at hand to make incredibly difficult decisions.
I have said since day 1 that the shutdown was a mistake and that the fatality rate would be under 0.5% after widespread testing. Only a fool, a weakling, or someone with an agenda would believed otherwise.
A mistake measured in the 10s of trillions should have dire consequences.
What on day 1 made you say the shutdown was a mistake? What evidence did you have at that time? If it's anything other than a gut feeling, I would love to see it.
Your statement is reading very much like it was founded on fact.
I looked at the numbers from Italy and China and saw it was overwhelmingly killing those 60+ and saw the fatality rate and the estimated asymptomatic rate and assumed worst case would be around a million US deaths heavily concentrated in 60+, but probably 200K.
Then I read that a prolonged shelter in place exceeding a month would result in 10s of millions of job losses and thought the cost/benefit militated in favor of not shutting down the economy. And that was assuming worst case, which was not likely to happen.
I will never be convinced the average US life is worth $1million+ and if you operate from that world view, how could anyone ever justify this idiotic overreaction.
And however unfounded in fact you think my estimation was, there will be a final tally and someone will be proven correct. I am very interested in comparing the educated guesses of the experts to the final outcome.
