Probably the most disappointing thing to me coming out of Abbott's presser is that it seemed to me that we are relying exclusively on the feds to arrange for increased testing capacity.

Is there really nothing the state of Texas could have been doing for the last month to arrange for ramped up production of tests reserved just for Texas to allow for more effective testing and tracing?

I know it's a complicated issue, but I'd like to hear that we at least were making an attempt instead of just relying on Uncle Sugar to come through.

Things continue to trend in the direction of the virus not being as deadly as originally feared. But it's still deadly, and testing and tracing is still the best way to keep things from getting out of hand, potentially necessitating another shutdown.

Caleb12 said:

---

Regardless of whether we open everything back up in may or june or even July, the American economy will completely recover the moment we find a vaccine. I don't understand how everything is on the line here. Have some faith in the American system. This isn't some systemic issue like 1929 or 2008, this is a temporary pause on operations. If companies aren't smart enough or lean enough to get through one hard patch then they may need to reconsider their business strategy.

---

I think certain things like big box office buildings might be done for good. A ton are going to get foreclosed on. I think retail will struggle for a while but will eventually make its way back to where we were before. But its going to take a while. I think hospitality was already overbuilt in a lot of areas prior to Covid and its going to see a lot of lower occupancies and foreclosures but will eventually make it back. Housing is certainly going to take a hit with valuations going down due to unemployment and foreclosures but I do not see something that lasts 5-10 years like some doom and gloomers like to think. A vaccine will change a lot of perceptions and moods for the better.

IMHO the big dynamic at play is how much value have companies and people found in working from home? If a lot, then that trickles down to a lot of things.

DTP02 said:

---

Probably the most disappointing thing to me coming out of Abbott's presser is that it seemed to me that we are relying exclusively on the feds to arrange for increased testing capacity.

Is there really nothing the state of Texas could have been doing for the last month to arrange for ramped up production of tests reserved just for Texas to allow for more effective testing and tracing?

I know it's a complicated issue, but I'd like to hear that we at least were making an attempt instead of just relying on Uncle Sugar to come through.

Things continue to trend in the direction of the virus not being as deadly as originally feared. But it's still deadly, and testing and tracing is still the best way to keep things from getting out of hand, potentially necessitating another shutdown.

---

Two comments regarding the above...

Testing capacity is hard to ramp up. Even if you overcome the lack of testing supply issues, RNA PCR testing takes a minimum of 6 hours. Not only that, but personnel that has to run this test are also highly qualified ( even if steps are repetitive), so you can't just hire and ramp up your lab personnel as quickly as one wish.

Covid 19 is both deadly and benign at the same time...we just don't know all the variables. We know roughly older and compromised individuals are at higher risk and yet there is plenty of low risks person having adverse outcome. I suspect, doctors will eventually figure out the risk variable...

JDL 96 said:

---

I watched the first part. Sam Houston (or a Texas leader in his spirit) would have said Texas is ready to get on with it, and will be open for business starting May 1. There could be some nuance and phasing to it, but the clear message would be: 1. the virus is under control; 2. Texas is getting back to business.

Instead, Abbott started rattling off all these people he's put on this committee (aka strike force) to make recommendations. This thing jumped the shark a week or 2 ago (at least), and Abbott didn't do near enough to get it back on track.

---

Maybe I (or you) don't know what those bolded words mean, but it seems to me that's exactly what we got from Abbott....nuance and phasing.

Premium said:

---

74Ag1 said:

---

gougler08 said:

---

74OA said:

---

Texas is predicted to peak around 30 April.

Reopening the state in early May at peak infection seems like a major gamble.

---

Model updated today and has changed drastically, says we have already passed the peak for hospitalizations and death total below 1k now

Open her up

---

To add...
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

---

Why isn't this data being updated? Last update is April 17th. Does anyone else have a better projection and actual models?

---

FYI it's updated

OKC~Ag said:

---

This pandemic is truly on a biblical scale but I think we will be ok.

Interestingly, Spanish flue of 1918 must have been similar in scale in its lethality and yet most Americans have no recollection in our collective consciousness nor economic sequelae, far as i know.

So I am hoping for same rebound from this pandemic as in 1918...(wait, there was that great depression but i don't think you can blame it on the Spanish flue)

---

What are you talking about? The Spanish Flu was FAR more deadly than COVID.

HotardAg07 said:

---

Rock1983 said:

---

RrEDI think gradually opening up the economy and putting more of the risk on people who are high risk is the right thing for everyone. High risk people need to create habits to protect themselves including continued isolation. The risk of death to young healthy people is very low. You can't ask people of low risk to give up their livelihoods, potentially putting their children at risk, to protect people in the high risk category. It's not fair

I say this being a person with several high risk factors. I will need to keep taking precautions to manage my risk, which may include risking my employment if my company opens back up, but I'm not comfortable reporting. But, that's where the risk needs to be, not on the entire population.

If high risk people continue to take precautions and If hospitals continue the practice of only treating the very ill, which are mostly high risk patients, then our hospital capacity should be able to handle some gradual reopening.

We have to do something different, staying shut in is a recipe for disaster, including a complete revolt by some.

---

I posted this in another thread, but this came up to me after I had a conversation with my dad about going to work. He's chomping at the bit to go back the first day he's able and when I pointed out that he was in the high risk group that technically should be continuing to stay home, he was in denial:

40% of all adults are obese.

70% of adults over age 65 have comorbities.

BMI is a good tool for measuring populations, but not for individuals.

The interesting thing about the re-opening order is that it has the vunerable population continuing to shelter at home until Phase 3. Here is their definition:

Quote:

---

Quote:
1. Elderly individuals.

2. Individuals with serious underlying health conditions, including high blood pressure, chronic lung disease, diabetes, obesity, asthma, and those whose immune system is compromised such as by chemotherapy for cancer and other conditions requiring such therapy.

---

To me it seems like more than half of the adults in the US could be considered vunerable and technically should be staying home until Phase 3. I doubt that will happen. It just feels like people always make it sound like the majority of the people are not high risk/vunerable, but according to that the majority of adults in the US are in at least one of those categories.

---

Though that seems high and generally inconsistent with mortality rates of the virus, you could be right....40 to 50% of the population could be high risk. Still, you need to put the risk of dying from the disease where it belongs vs a quarantine of the entire population. High risk people need to manage their own risk, not ask the entire population to mange that risk for them. Again I'm a high risk person.

The reason we need to do this now is the economic risk now hows the potential to do much greater harm than the disease. Nearly 15 to 20% of the population is now unemployed. Many of these people have children or elderly they have to take care of. Another clue, within one week of shutting the economy down, lines at the food banks across the nation stretched for miles.

That was an eye opener for me, a large percentage of people didn't have enough savings to get through 1 week of no pay and were willing to wait all day to get a bag of groceries. This is where the shut down is putting lives at risk that is not being measured. These people have to work to survive.....period. How do you look these people in the face, most who have children and tell them, despite being low risk, that they can't work because you're risking the life of some middle aged obese person living in suburbia somewhere. I don't want them sacrificing for me, they need to go back work and let me worry about me.

It's tough to say, because it's open to interpretation.

The key word being SERIOUS underlying conditions. What is considered serious? Over 1/3rd of American's are obese(maybe even up to 40% now), but less than 10% are considered severely obese. So is being 5-15 pounds overweight going to put you that much higher? It's likely somewhere in between to those are are truly at a high risk. Slightly high blood pressure, or seriously high blood pressure? Again, tough to really pinpoint what the cutoffs are to being at serious risk.

I mean, I'm an asthmatic, but it's under control. I work out regularly, I don't take a daily inhaler, and I haven't been to the Dr for asthma in about 17-18 years. So it's open to interpretation when they list asthma. I don't think I'm in the serious category, but I guess I really don't know.

I guess that's why I got onto this discussion. My dad is old, has T2 diabetes, high blood pressure, 4 stents in his heart, and doesn't view himself as high risk. The high risk people are the other older, more sick, fatter people. I could just see a lot of people ignoring the guidance because they're sick of staying at home, so our hope of keeping the vunerable population protected is probably a pipe dream.

OKC~Ag said:

---

This pandemic is truly on a biblical scale but I think we will be ok.

Interestingly, Spanish flue of 1918 must have been similar in scale in its lethality and yet most Americans have no recollection in our collective consciousness nor economic sequelae, far as i know.

So I am hoping for same rebound from this pandemic as in 1918...(wait, there was that great depression but i don't think you can blame it on the Spanish flue)

---