This article is from Reuters. At Least 300,000 Africans Expected to Die in Pandemic.
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Africa
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Last: 5 yr ago by One-Eyed Fat Man
I'm supposed to head over in July. Hope they aren't right.
We have no idea if and when we'll get home to Zambia. It took the US 38 days to go from one case to 52. It has taken Zambia 29 days to reach 52. Is that an indication of anything? No idea.
Are you connecting through Johannesburg? If so better stay up to date with their visa restrictions. We were lucky to be allowed to make our connection there as we came back to the states a month ago.
Are you connecting through Johannesburg? If so better stay up to date with their visa restrictions. We were lucky to be allowed to make our connection there as we came back to the states a month ago.
That's it? There's 1.2 billion people in Africa. If they only have 300,000 that would be amazing considering the lack of health care infrastructure and poor living conditions prevalent through the continent.
People don't travel there like in developed countries an even owning a bike is a luxury. Because of that, people don't move far from home, especially in the bush, which helps I believe. My biggest fear are the markets which people depend on daily for their food - big high density gatherings.
No going through Doha to Namibia
The median age in Africa is 19.
There aren't enough old people in Africa to produce fatality numbers comparable to the US and Western Europe.
There aren't enough old people in Africa to produce fatality numbers comparable to the US and Western Europe.
Keegan99 said:
The median age in Africa is 19.
There aren't enough old people in Africa to produce fatality numbers comparable to the US and Western Europe.
Fair point I hadn't thought of.
But there's also a few million estimated to be living with untreated HIV infection.
Hence forth I shall print every estimate and use it to wipe my hiney.
It's also worth noting that the 300,000 number is the best case scenario. That scenario also predicted 122.8 million total infections, which would put the fatality rate ate 0.2%
The worst case scenario predicted 92% of the continent would be infected (1.2 billion) and 3.3 million deaths. Which is also a fatality rate of only 0.2%. Neither of these scenarios seems likely.
The worst case scenario predicted 92% of the continent would be infected (1.2 billion) and 3.3 million deaths. Which is also a fatality rate of only 0.2%. Neither of these scenarios seems likely.
I'll go out on a limb and say the locust swarm in East Africa and threat of famine will kill more than coronavirus in Africa. Especially when Australia, SE Asia and South America are seeing massive droughts and huge shortfalls in production of food staples.
Back when I read Italy had one of the highest median ages in the world, 48, and that the US median was 38, I was fascinated. I thought a ten year difference between two countries was huge.Keegan99 said:
The median age in Africa is 19.
There aren't enough old people in Africa to produce fatality numbers comparable to the US and Western Europe.
I looked at the rankings of countries by median age and was more amazed. Over 50 countries, representing over a billion inhabitants, all with a median age of 22 or younger. Half, or even approaching a third for some countries, of Italy's median.
Just interesting data.
Keegan99 said:
The median age in Africa is 19.
Thats an amazing stat. I didn't believe it could be true but apparently it is. Shocking its still so low. For reference the median age in the US is about 38.
Yay. Another model. They'll get it right this time
I don't think the median age of 19 is necessarily protective. Why is it so low? Poor nutrition, lack of healthcare, and greater stresses of living in general. I would think you might see more fatalities from the secondary symptoms (dehydration from GI effects and such).
The distancing of rural communities should slow the spread, but if they still can't get to a hospital or receive care does it matter much? Large, crowded cities like Dakar (Senegal) might be very problematic. No one knows what might happen, but I'm praying Africa as a whole gets spared.
The distancing of rural communities should slow the spread, but if they still can't get to a hospital or receive care does it matter much? Large, crowded cities like Dakar (Senegal) might be very problematic. No one knows what might happen, but I'm praying Africa as a whole gets spared.
One-Eyed Fat Man said:
People don't travel there like in developed countries an even owning a bike is a luxury. Because of that, people don't move far from home, especially in the bush, which helps I believe. My biggest fear are the markets which people depend on daily for their food - big high density gatherings.
Yeah it's a bit like a giant West Virginia in that regard. But lack of sanitation and health care infrastructure could increase the death rate if the virus is able to spread in the big cities
fightingfarmer09 said:
I'll go out on a limb and say the locust swarm in East Africa and threat of famine will kill more than coronavirus in Africa. Especially when Australia, SE Asia and South America are seeing massive droughts and huge shortfalls in production of food staples.
Hadn't heard about that but just looked it up. That is some biblical **** going on.
The incidence of diabetes and high blood pressure is signifiant. On the other hand, the Zambians and Congolese I know are pretty tough people.
fightingfarmer09 said:
I'll go out on a limb and say the locust swarm in East Africa and threat of famine will kill more than coronavirus in Africa. Especially when Australia, SE Asia and South America are seeing massive droughts and huge shortfalls in production of food staples.
The locust swarm will cause health related issues in people who are now malnourished, then covid will take advantage and go after these people since it's known for killing people who have health problems. The one two punch won't be good for continent.
Just looked up the locust, I think ddt carpet bombing is in order! Holy Cow that is some crazy bug *****
I live in WV. I have a PhD and one of them new-fangled flushin' terlets.drottermd said:One-Eyed Fat Man said:
People don't travel there like in developed countries an even owning a bike is a luxury. Because of that, people don't move far from home, especially in the bush, which helps I believe. My biggest fear are the markets which people depend on daily for their food - big high density gatherings.
Yeah it's a bit like a giant West Virginia in that regard. But lack of sanitation and health care infrastructure could increase the death rate if the virus is able to spread in the big cities
And you, sir, are talking out your ass.
What part of Zambia do you live in when you're in country? I'm indirectly connected by family with the non-profit WISE Zambia based out of Kaoma District.
They are certainly starting to take precautions related to COVID.
They are certainly starting to take precautions related to COVID.
We live in Lundazi, in Eastern Province near the Malawi border. We evacuated in mid-March just as things started coming off the rails.
We had planned to shelter in place at home if we needed to, but I have underlying health issues - age and an ascending aortic aneurysm, which requires CT scans annually to monitor. While it was our decision at the time, we decided on March 16 we should evacuate back to the States (Atlanta & Emory where my docs are).
After tying up some loose ends and packing, we made the 12 hour drive to Lusaka on Thursday, March 19 and caught the last South African Airways international fight until May 20, from Lusaka to Johannesburg. As we drove to Lusaka, Melissa was on the phone with the South African embassy because they had closed their borders and it wasn't clear that we'd be allowed to make our flight connection. Finally, we learned we would because we hadn't been in the U.S. in the previous 20 days and our connection time was less than 12 hours.
I've been accused several times on here for making what others considered political posts regarding the pandemic and the posts have been removed. However, I believe anyone capable of critical thinking should be able to process the measures we witnessed and draw their own conclusions.
When we arrived at the Lusaka airport, as we entered the security line, our temps were taken and we received a questionnaire to complete. After we went through security, checked in and entered customs and immigration, we spoke with a nurse and gave her the completed questionnaire. Our temps were checked again as we boarded the flight. Zambia had no confirmed cases at that time.
In Johannesburg, our temps were taken as we deplaned before we entered the terminal. As we were preparing to depart for Atlanta on our Delta flight, an announcement was made saying that we should remain seated when we arrived in Atlanta as CDC personnel would be boarding the plane. However when we arrived, after about five minutes an announcement was made saying the CDC was a no-show and we could deplane. There were no health screening measures seen anywhere between the time we got off the plane and exited the Atlanta airport on the morning of March 21. In hindsight, the horse was already out of the barn in the U.S. and it probably didn't matter, but I don't know there was any crystal ball telling us that at the time. We certainly expected our country to be doing as much as Zambia and South Africa.
Anyway, we went through our 14 day self-quarantine and are currently in a wait and see mode like everyone else. We hope to be able to return to Zambia, but don't know if and when that will happen. As of this writing, there are now 61 cases there.
We had planned to shelter in place at home if we needed to, but I have underlying health issues - age and an ascending aortic aneurysm, which requires CT scans annually to monitor. While it was our decision at the time, we decided on March 16 we should evacuate back to the States (Atlanta & Emory where my docs are).
After tying up some loose ends and packing, we made the 12 hour drive to Lusaka on Thursday, March 19 and caught the last South African Airways international fight until May 20, from Lusaka to Johannesburg. As we drove to Lusaka, Melissa was on the phone with the South African embassy because they had closed their borders and it wasn't clear that we'd be allowed to make our flight connection. Finally, we learned we would because we hadn't been in the U.S. in the previous 20 days and our connection time was less than 12 hours.
I've been accused several times on here for making what others considered political posts regarding the pandemic and the posts have been removed. However, I believe anyone capable of critical thinking should be able to process the measures we witnessed and draw their own conclusions.
When we arrived at the Lusaka airport, as we entered the security line, our temps were taken and we received a questionnaire to complete. After we went through security, checked in and entered customs and immigration, we spoke with a nurse and gave her the completed questionnaire. Our temps were checked again as we boarded the flight. Zambia had no confirmed cases at that time.
In Johannesburg, our temps were taken as we deplaned before we entered the terminal. As we were preparing to depart for Atlanta on our Delta flight, an announcement was made saying that we should remain seated when we arrived in Atlanta as CDC personnel would be boarding the plane. However when we arrived, after about five minutes an announcement was made saying the CDC was a no-show and we could deplane. There were no health screening measures seen anywhere between the time we got off the plane and exited the Atlanta airport on the morning of March 21. In hindsight, the horse was already out of the barn in the U.S. and it probably didn't matter, but I don't know there was any crystal ball telling us that at the time. We certainly expected our country to be doing as much as Zambia and South Africa.
Anyway, we went through our 14 day self-quarantine and are currently in a wait and see mode like everyone else. We hope to be able to return to Zambia, but don't know if and when that will happen. As of this writing, there are now 61 cases there.
Fat Man - always enjoy your posts and wishing you good health. Just alarming your observations about your travels. And stereotypes about Africa are mind-boggling. I rode a bike across Rwanda for charity in 2014 (20th anniversary of genocide). The people couldn't have been better and it was such a great journey. I'm sure your experiences are even better. Best to you
Hi Chico. Thanks for the kind words. Yes, the people we've met in Africa are wonderful, even in DRC which has many problems. We visited Rwanda a few years ago for a conference - what a beautiful country that still deals with much sadness as it tries to heal.
Regarding our observations, our travel coincided with other missionary evacuations as well as that of our Lundazi Peace Corps friends. None reported any health screening in the U.S. upon arriving in other big airports across the country.
By the way, those kids really had the rug pulled out from under them. Many were in the middle of projects in their villages and were pulled out with less notice and time to say goodbye than we had. Because they're "volunteers" they've come home to very few benefits - I believe their health insurance is only two months and job prospects. These kids who we've become good friends with are amazing young people and our lives are enriched for knowing them. We're actually hosting a Zoom happy hour for them this weekend. Keep those kids in your prayers please as they try to figure things out
Regarding our observations, our travel coincided with other missionary evacuations as well as that of our Lundazi Peace Corps friends. None reported any health screening in the U.S. upon arriving in other big airports across the country.
By the way, those kids really had the rug pulled out from under them. Many were in the middle of projects in their villages and were pulled out with less notice and time to say goodbye than we had. Because they're "volunteers" they've come home to very few benefits - I believe their health insurance is only two months and job prospects. These kids who we've become good friends with are amazing young people and our lives are enriched for knowing them. We're actually hosting a Zoom happy hour for them this weekend. Keep those kids in your prayers please as they try to figure things out
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