1 case infects 10 out of 91 in a restaurant

12,036 Views | 66 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by swampstander
PJYoung
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But only those 'downwind'

PJYoung
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Georgia opens restaurants to dine in one week from today.

I havent checked but I'm guessing they will be 50% capacity or less at max by order of the state.
TexasAggie008
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Either open them anyway

Or

Close them all until a vaccine for 100%

#1 is the clear winner for me and it isn't even close
PDEMDHC
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TexasAggie008 said:

Either open them anyway

Or

Close them all until a vaccine for 100%

#1 is the clear winner for me and it isn't even close
But if you open, it can't necessarily be full throttle. I think some businesses, like a movie theater, would lose more money. No way anyone would sit within 3 chairs, in any direction. Odds are snacks are pre-made and wrapped or not sold at all. We would have a new normal.

What I'm 100% in favor of is the return of drive in movies.
hoosierAG
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Man, that's just crazy to be that contagious/infectious.
Fenrir
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Table C still seems odd to me. I get that they're showing the return being at the unit but a return air inlet is not going to just suck from one direction in the same way that the outlet is going to blow air.

Either way, good thing they didn't sit that guy at Table G.
74Ag1
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Put UV light in AC return and downstream of evaporator/blower.
mccjames
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^
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Winner winner chicken dinner!

Going to be some winners in UV sterilization tech
VaultingChemist
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Patient A1 coughed, sneezed, or laughed at table A toward table C. Air was circulating both directions across all three tables. Amazing that the virus spread that fast in a little over an hour.
B-1 83
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Don't you mean "One KNOWN case..........."?
JD Shellnut
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Holy cow! If it's that contagious, I don't see how grocery stores aren't breeding grounds for this thing!
mike0305
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Excellent study! Very exciting.

I actually read that as the opposite, UV light in air conditioner would help if the virus transmits by aerosol, but because air was circulating back and forth from the ac unit blower and people had a long term exposure they were infected...so I'm not sure UV light would have helped. Also they have exhaust fan but not sure that's an air return, so I'm not sure where it was pulling air from.
Barnyard96
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Can I get a table on the patio then?
cone
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it's because it's still mostly droplet spread and those people were "close" to each other for a long period of time (a meal)

at a grocery you just aren't next to the same people for very long.

it's becoming more clear that outdoors and even common surfaces might not be the primary deal. it's being indoors with pre-symptomatic cases for extended periods of time.

universal masking in those locations would help tremendously. the japanese have been saying this is how it spreads for two months now: prolonged indoor times in close proximity to others and lots of talking or using your voice (like karaoke or a choir)

doesn't bode well for offices and restaurants.

this linked study does seem to fit how a virus that doesn't attack casual contacts can also super spread - time and proximity and air flow.
cone
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i always wondered - what was it about the karoke super spread event in japan that characterized their first outbreak

i thought it was that they were passing around the microphone and then touching their face - plausible

but maybe it was just the singing and loud talking
mike0305
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Exactly Cone.

I was previously much more concerned about the virus, but over the last week or so have been leaning in favor of starting to open things back up in less densely packed areas. We haven't seen the spike of cases in Houston, but people are still grocery shopping and going to home depot.

The virus has exploded in densely packed areas with lots of public transport and air transport hubs. New Orleans is the exception, but I think theirs was fueled by mardi gras or residents returning that avoided mardi gras and sure there was plenty of air travel around that time.

I don't think it's likely to get the virus from going to a shop or a store for a short period of time. Be smart, wear a mask, stay home if you're high risk. But it may be a long while before we can open up restaurants for dine in or air travel.
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cone
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i think retail should bounce back once the paranoia clears

but closed air sit down restaurants - that's going to be tough
cone
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and that's fine i guess. i hope they spread people out, enforce occupancy based on sq footage

but those seem like places when super spread gets kicked off
mike0305
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Karaoke isn't really a thing in Japan anymore. But they pack in on subways and many have an hour long subway commute if they work in Tokyo, And when I say pack, I mean they literally push people in and stuff it as full as they can possibly get, and there are queues to get on with subways 3 mins apart.

*edit - this is the condition for commuting in during rush hour, it's not always like that.

The fact they haven't exploded with cases lets you know that masks work. If people are smart and wear masks we should be able to control this. But they are also much more obedient and conscientious. "'Merica don't mess with my rights" really isn't a thing there.

Player To Be Named Later
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It's also going to be interesting to see the behavior of the public. If they open fully, will people rush in and feel confident in sitting at a full restaurant?
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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So now we believe reports coming out of China?
vansprinkle
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I don't understand table C. Does the restaurant not have an air filter in their ac? Even the cheapest of air filters would provide a bit of protection. How would a droplet make it through the system, across the building, through the filter, and back into the general masses if it isn't an aerosol? It just doesn't seem plausible.

It's time to open things up, limit capacities, get people to work, get people out playing. We should have opened up 1-2 weeks ago.
One-Eyed Fat Man
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Yes, let's use the state whose governor didn't know it could be spread by asymptomatic people as our example of what to do. Not sure that's the best course of action.
beerad12man
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In fairness we are likely to do that pretty soon it sounds like. And we aren't doing it because of Georgia.
Ragoo
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Study says "droplets" - blames AC.

Does not compute.
Ragoo
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vansprinkle said:

I don't understand table C. Does the restaurant not have an air filter in their ac? Even the cheapest of air filters would provide a bit of protection. How would a droplet make it through the system, across the building, through the filter, and back into the general masses if it isn't an aerosol? It just doesn't seem plausible.

It's time to open things up, limit capacities, get people to work, get people out playing. We should have opened up 1-2 weeks ago.
it isn't a study. It is a pictorial representation aimed at creating fear.
normaleagle05
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Y'all know that's a Chinese government publication....right?

Also known as propaganda.
Old Buffalo
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PJYoung said:

But only those 'downwind'




And none of the staff were infected..... this makes sense.
BTHOthatguy
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74Ag1 said:

Put UV light in AC return and downstream of evaporator/blower.


I sell UV lights. UV lights in the duct work do nothing to clean the air. They are for treating surfaces. PCO's are good for cleaning the air. PHO's actually pump hydroperoxides into the air, these are the best.

All of this is moot because you can't buy any of them because the manufacturers are out of stock.
Hincemm
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cone said:

at a grocery you just aren't next to the same people for very long.
i don't understand this logic relative to restaurants. at a grocery store, you may not be around people very long, but you are continuously around them, thereby maintaining the risk, right?

beerad12man
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mike0305 said:

Karaoke isn't really a thing in Japan anymore. But they pack in on subways and many have an hour long subway commute if they work in Tokyo, And when I say pack, I mean they literally push people in and stuff it as full as they can possibly get, and there are queues to get on with subways 3 mins apart.

*edit - this is the condition for commuting in during rush hour, it's not always like that.

The fact they haven't exploded with cases lets you know that masks work. If people are smart and wear masks we should be able to control this. But they are also much more obedient and conscientious. "'Merica don't mess with my rights" really isn't a thing there.


And thank god it is here. I don't want to wear masks the rest of my life even when there isn't a current pandemic going. My work won't even allow me to drink a freaking cup of coffee at my desk right now even though no one is within 6 feet of me because I can't take my mask off in the office. We've lost our minds. (Why I'm even at my desk and not working from home is a whole other bag of worms but I digress)

Now, during this pandemic I would hope most would be able to sacrifice a few things to save some lives / keep us under the curve. Sure thing. Long term, give me our way of life over theirs any day, except maybe the healthier diet.

Also, are masks the only thing different? Is that the only variable? I think it would be prudent to look into multiple potential reasons they have lower confirmed cases. Their diets are significantly better. Obesity rate much lower. This alone could allow for far more asymptomatic / less severe cases that aren't getting tested. Also, do we really know if they are testing at the same rate we are? I wouldn't always trust all numbers.

I have no doubts that masks can help, but I don't think it's the only reason for their lack of confirmed cases compared to ours. Nor do I think they are necessary to wear 99% of the time.
Ragoo
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Hincemm said:

cone said:

at a grocery you just aren't next to the same people for very long.
i don't understand this logic relative to restaurants. at a grocery store, you may not be around people very long, but you are continuously around them, thereby maintaining the risk, right?


furthermore if droplets are the mechanism for spreading a grocery store has infinite more surface area for holding droplets.
PJYoung
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Old Buffalo said:

PJYoung said:

But only those 'downwind'




And none of the staff were infected..... this makes sense.


The staff weren't sitting in the line of fire for 45 minutes +
cone
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Hincemm said:

cone said:

at a grocery you just aren't next to the same people for very long.
i don't understand this logic relative to restaurants. at a grocery store, you may not be around people very long, but you are continuously around them, thereby maintaining the risk, right?


yes, but you're not continually around the same people the whole time. think of the total duration you are within 6-12 feet of a stranger at the grocery store. it might be individually measured in seconds. and people aren't talking or shouting or laughing or singing. throw masks on top, wash your hands, don't touch your face, and you're good.

studies have shown that the disease doesn't attack casual contacts with any sort of efficiency. and the japanese made early guidelines that sought to eliminate enclosed, high density, low ventilated spaces where people are having to be close to each other to converse. sit-down restaurants aren't mask compatible, usually indoors, people sit in the same place for the better part of an hour, and they talk the whole time. greater spacing will help, but it's still riskier than a grocery store trip. you can accept the risk, but a risk nonetheless.
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