"it's just another flu"
...except not really
...except not really
so about those NYC sero test results
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Last: 5 yr ago by cone
Seems pointless to predict a probability in the future.SirLurksALot said:Duncan Idaho said:Complete Idiot said:So 0.76% IFRComplete Idiot said:
If 14.9% have been infected in NY State, isn't a mortality rate calculated (approx) by # of NY State deaths 22,000 divided by (NY State Population 19,450,000 * 0.149)?
Wrong math?
Don't trust NY antibody testing or death count?
So with flu having .18 ifr (which includes comorbitities) this is only 4 times more deadly while being substantially more communicable with potential life long chronic health impacts...
Basically just like the flu
If we had a vaccine and all the treatments that we do for the flu, then the numbers would probably be similar. So currently it's worse than the flu, but in the future it's probably just another flu.
Even flues - viruses in the influenza family - aren't all the same, and can vary greatly in impact, but we seem obsessed comparing one coronavirus with "the flu", as if "the flu" is even a real thing.
Any of the recent flus' total death count without current treatments would not even be close to the IFR for this. Nothing else I am aware of has been as deadly AND as communicable.
And we are living in the now. So we should take even the simplest of mitigation steps since we don't have vaccines or treatments.
But we can't even do that. Because wearing masks is an infringement of my rights but wearing pants isn't.
And we are living in the now. So we should take even the simplest of mitigation steps since we don't have vaccines or treatments.
But we can't even do that. Because wearing masks is an infringement of my rights but wearing pants isn't.
How long does COVID last in our tissue? If you had very mild COVID and then die of, say, an embolism 2 weeks later will/could/should COVID be attributed to the death?
Fitch said:
"it's just another flu"
...except not really
We'll see.
SirLurksALot said:
It's impossible to know what the Ifr with treatments would be.
Quote:
If we had a vaccine and all the treatments that we do for the flu, then the numbers would probably be similar.
Don't trust these NY antibody tests or how they have arrived at their total death count?SirLurksALot said:Fitch said:
"it's just another flu"
...except not really
We'll see.
Outside of you being jealous, there is no potential for permanent harm from me walking around in public without wearing pants.
Complete Idiot said:SirLurksALot said:
It's impossible to know what the Ifr with treatments would be.Quote:
If we had a vaccine and all the treatments that we do for the flu, then the numbers would probably be similar.
A prediction is not a statement of fact like " Any of the recent flus' total death count without current treatments would not even be close to the IFR for this".
Why are you on this board to debate how others are responding to a disease that you dont care about?SirLurksALot said:
I'm not scared of getting the virus. Don't really care if others get it either. I live my life, you live yours. We should all stop worrying about what other people are doing.
Duncan Idaho said:
Outside of you being jealous, there is no potential for permanent harm from me walking around in public without wearing pants.
Yeah who cares if kids are exposed to genitals. They're gonna see them anyways right? Maybe we should release all the pedos too.
Complete Idiot said:Why are you on this board to debate how others are responding to a disease that you dont care about?SirLurksALot said:
I'm not scared of getting the virus. Don't really care if others get it either. I live my life, you live yours. We should all stop worrying about what other people are doing.
Because the over reaction to this virus negativity affects my life.
I'm not scared about the over reaction. Don't really care if others are negatively affected either.SirLurksALot said:Complete Idiot said:Why are you on this board to debate how others are responding to a disease that you dont care about?SirLurksALot said:
I'm not scared of getting the virus. Don't really care if others get it either. I live my life, you live yours. We should all stop worrying about what other people are doing.
Because the over reaction to this virus negativity affects my life.
(it sounds kind of dumb and thoughtless)
Complete Idiot said:I'm not scared about the over reaction. Don't really care if others are negatively affected either.SirLurksALot said:Complete Idiot said:Why are you on this board to debate how others are responding to a disease that you dont care about?SirLurksALot said:
I'm not scared of getting the virus. Don't really care if others get it either. I live my life, you live yours. We should all stop worrying about what other people are doing.
Because the over reaction to this virus negativity affects my life.
(it sounds kind of dumb and thoughtless)
I respect your right to a different opinion.
to what tune do you not trust the tests?
how much do you think they overcounted positives?
how much do you think they overcounted positives?
Like you I added a question mark to the end of the sentence indicating I was asking the poster who I quoted.cone said:
to what tune do you not trust the tests?
how much do you think they overcounted positives?
I like the study and have to have some faith they chose a reliable antibody test, chose people randomly, and are counting deaths as best they can. So I think the rough IFR of 0.76% as calculated off the results of this test is pretty accurate for NY.
I'm somewhat surprised it's that low but where it really makes a difference is in the hospitalization rate
I would not expect a 2.5% rate across all ages
Definitely worse than the flu but something that can be more targeted in overall approach moving forward
I would not expect a 2.5% rate across all ages
Definitely worse than the flu but something that can be more targeted in overall approach moving forward
50K US deaths is well shy of the 2018 winter influenza death toll of 80K deaths.Duncan Idaho said:
Wow. So the acceptable window has moved to 2-3 million. I am old enough to remember when 50k deaths was considered fear mongering and a liberal fantasy
https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
This is terrible, but it's starting to make alot of us wonder, based on the data alone, how much worse that is than the flu. AND the flu has a "vaccine" in place.
Gig'Em and God Bless,
JB'91
JB'91
Tell me how much appreciably different it is by the #s.Fitch said:
"it's just another flu"
...except not really
SIL & Social distancing on one end with a "vaccine" on the other.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
Gig'Em and God Bless,
JB'91
JB'91
Rather than link an article that references a quote from a single CDC person, just use the CDC data: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.htmlKeller6Ag91 said:50K US deaths is well shy of the 2018 winter influenza death toll of 80K deaths.Duncan Idaho said:
Wow. So the acceptable window has moved to 2-3 million. I am old enough to remember when 50k deaths was considered fear mongering and a liberal fantasy
https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
This is terrible, but it's starting to make alot of us wonder, based on the data alone, how much worse that is than the flu. AND the flu has a "vaccine" in place.
Worst year (flu runs for about 5 months, not whole year) in last 9 was that 2017-2018 year with 61K deaths. Over 9 years the annual estimated influenza death range from 12K to that 61K, that is because there is no "the flu", but influenza viruses that mutate and change and our vaccines are more or less effective year to year given the mutations.
In 7 weeks in the US they have counted 57K deaths for Covid while travel and group gatherings are largely prohibited. As you said, we wonder HOW MUCH worse than the worst influenza year in the past 9 it is, but I don't think we can wonder if it ISNT worse. Unless comparing to 1918 influenza year, or 1958 or 1969 maybe, it is worse than influenza.
New Jersey just passed New York for daily new cases.
NY sometimes has an evening update on their numbers, but regardless their number are thankfully falling.
As of today they are at around 17k deaths in NYC (including probable cases), the typical flu season is around 2k. Their mortality rate is just above .2 percent across their entire population with Covid, with a fifth to a quarter infected (maybe a bit more by now as those studies are a few days old). The typical flu season kills .1 percent of those infected. So the numbers start to tie out pretty neatly and give us a good baseline.
NY might be a worst case for a few reasons, but then again, maybe it isn't. We will only know when a less populous area really gets hit hard. But we do know what it's capable of now. So the next step needs to be determining whether NY is a typical or atypical scenario. That's will inform loosening of restrictions, where to start, what businesses to reopen etc. because right now it's not much more than a wing and a prayer. Some of the governors in more populous states are taking a big risk if they open too quickly.
As of today they are at around 17k deaths in NYC (including probable cases), the typical flu season is around 2k. Their mortality rate is just above .2 percent across their entire population with Covid, with a fifth to a quarter infected (maybe a bit more by now as those studies are a few days old). The typical flu season kills .1 percent of those infected. So the numbers start to tie out pretty neatly and give us a good baseline.
NY might be a worst case for a few reasons, but then again, maybe it isn't. We will only know when a less populous area really gets hit hard. But we do know what it's capable of now. So the next step needs to be determining whether NY is a typical or atypical scenario. That's will inform loosening of restrictions, where to start, what businesses to reopen etc. because right now it's not much more than a wing and a prayer. Some of the governors in more populous states are taking a big risk if they open too quickly.
Well, I apologize because I can only give a partial response. It's proving to be challenging to find statistics about influenza-induced complications and deaths.
The numbers (and hopefully in a few weeks antibody testing) will ultimately bear out how prolific COVID is, and what the breakdown is of people with no symptoms, how many deaths result, and how many experience fleeting or permanent impacts. The latter part is what I had in mind if the quoted post...it seems like most discussions revolve around fatality rates and ignore you can live and have some lasting issues.
Happy to revise if someone finds decent flu data or spots something wrong with the below...
Typical Flu Symptoms, per the CDC:
US Flu Burden (2018-2019):
Typical COVID Symptoms / Markers, per Brigham and Women's Hospital:
COVID Burden (best guesses)
The numbers (and hopefully in a few weeks antibody testing) will ultimately bear out how prolific COVID is, and what the breakdown is of people with no symptoms, how many deaths result, and how many experience fleeting or permanent impacts. The latter part is what I had in mind if the quoted post...it seems like most discussions revolve around fatality rates and ignore you can live and have some lasting issues.
Happy to revise if someone finds decent flu data or spots something wrong with the below...
Typical Flu Symptoms, per the CDC:
- Fever
- Cough
- Sore Throat
- Runny Nose
- Chills
- Muscle Aches
- Headaches / Migraine
- Fatigue
- Vomiting / Diarrhea
- Shortness of break
- Sinus / ear infections
- Pneumonia (most flu-related deaths are reported as Influenza + Pneumonia)
- Myocarditis / Encephalitis / Myositis (heart / brain / muscle inflammation, respectively)
- Worsening of Pre-Existing Chronic Disease
- Second Infections resulting from depleted immune system
- Respiratory / Organ Failure (typically resulting from above issues)
US Flu Burden (2018-2019):
- Illnesses: 35.5MM
- Hospitalizations: 490,500 (1.4%)
- Deaths: 34,150 (0.1% IFR)
Typical COVID Symptoms / Markers, per Brigham and Women's Hospital:
- Fever (44-94%)
- Cough (68-83%)
- Loss of Smell / Taste (~70%)
- Sore Throat / Sinus Congestion / Runny Nose (5-61%)
- Shortness of Breath (11-40%)
- Fatigue (23-38%)
- Muscle Aches (11-15%)
- Headache / Migraine (8-14%)
- Confusion (9%)
- Vomiting / Diarrhea (3-17%)
- Reduced Lymphocites (white blood cells)
- Liver Cell Damage
- Anemia (reduced blood oxygen)
- Elevated D-Dimmer (may indicate blood clotting)
- Elevated CK (Creatine Kinase, suggests muscle or heart damage)
- Elevated LDH (Lactate Hydrogenase, suggests some form of tissue damage)
- Low/Normal Procalcitonin (given infection may suggest suppressed immune system)
- Elevated inflammatory markers
- Ground Glass [Lung] Opacity
- Pneumonia, bilateral (both lungs)
- ARDS - Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (respiratory failure / injury that allows fluid to leak into the lungs)
- Pleural Thickening / Pleural Effusion (lung lining thickening / blood clots in lungs)
- Stroke
- Seizures
- Sepsis
- Stomach / Intestinal Injury
- Liver Injury / Impairment
- Brain Inflammation
- Cardiac Impairment / Injury / Failure
- Kidney Impairment / Injury / Failure
- Lung Impairment / Injury / Failure
- Second Infections resulting from depleted immune system
COVID Burden (best guesses)
- Confirmed US Cases to Date (3 months): 1MM (generally accepted this is ~10-20x higher)
- US Deaths to Date: 58,000 (implied 5.8% IFR -- this is skewed too high, probably 0.5-1% will be established over time)
- Of confirmed cases:
- 81% mild cases (typical flu symptoms up to mild pnuemonia)
- 14% severe cases (hypoxia or >50% lung involvement)
- 5% critical cases (respiratory failure, multi-organ failure)
I want to bring back this topic because it feels like the NYC sero results just got ignored by the wider media insofar as what they mean for resource allocation
does that seem weird to anyone else? it felt like there was a distinct pivot from those results to but wait you can get reinfected and but wait you might be irreparably damaged even in survival
does that seem weird to anyone else? it felt like there was a distinct pivot from those results to but wait you can get reinfected and but wait you might be irreparably damaged even in survival
60k deaths in a month with the country/world in lockdown. Come on.Keller6Ag91 said:50K US deaths is well shy of the 2018 winter influenza death toll of 80K deaths.Duncan Idaho said:
Wow. So the acceptable window has moved to 2-3 million. I am old enough to remember when 50k deaths was considered fear mongering and a liberal fantasy
https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
This is terrible, but it's starting to make alot of us wonder, based on the data alone, how much worse that is than the flu. AND the flu has a "vaccine" in place.
@Cone
I still don't know what to make of the NY data. Seems to reinforce the 0.5-1% IFR, but at the same time, the 2% hospitalization rate doesn't seem great. I haven't been able to find enough hospitalization rate data for other states (say Texas for instance) to be able to calculate a rough idea of the percentage who contract COVID19 that will end up in the hospital to reinforce the NY numbers.
2% seems pretty low, until you do the math on letting everyone get sick too quickly. I did this in another thread but:
(209 million US adults) * (25% get sick quickly) = 52.25 million sick
52250000 * (2% hospital rate) = 1,045,000 beds
We only have ~ 1 million hospital beds in the US. Assume we can clear up half of them for COVID19 and you're still looking at a bad time.
This assumes that 2% number is correct.
but that 2% (if correct) is across all ages
so mitigation and stay at home orders can absolutely take that into account
if under 50 hospitalization rates are half that of over 50, then you're looking at 1% and that's not taking into account comorbidities
so if you rank people based on risk (and we have the data now to support those rankings), you can at least attempt to cordon off the most vulnerable
plus, general social distancing and masking isn't eased - so the transmission is still not native
i just don't see the hospital problem in the same way if we think the hospitalization rate is low single digits
most of the HC system crushed modeling was done assuming 30-50 year olds were ending up in the hospital at a 3-4% clip
so mitigation and stay at home orders can absolutely take that into account
if under 50 hospitalization rates are half that of over 50, then you're looking at 1% and that's not taking into account comorbidities
so if you rank people based on risk (and we have the data now to support those rankings), you can at least attempt to cordon off the most vulnerable
plus, general social distancing and masking isn't eased - so the transmission is still not native
i just don't see the hospital problem in the same way if we think the hospitalization rate is low single digits
most of the HC system crushed modeling was done assuming 30-50 year olds were ending up in the hospital at a 3-4% clip
if deaths are the primary concern, then the biggest problem i can see right now is how do you cordon of LTC facilities?
No idea since the nurses that run those places span the entire age spectrum. Extremely strict PPE usage and testing I guess.cone said:
if deaths are the primary concern, then the biggest problem i can see right now is how do you cordon of LTC facilities?
Yeah, the hospitalization rate for under 60 might make a age or risk dependent quarantine more doable, but I'm still skeptical.
Maybe simple mask usage, SDing, and awareness will keep it slow enough. We're about to find out in a lot of states.
the biggest doubt i have is that the sero studies are just completely wrong, off by factors of 5 or more
that's the only thing i can come up with to throw cold water on those hospitalization figures
the hospitalization rate being initially reported at 15-20% (as in that many people were going to require a bed and an O2 canister at least) was always the thing about this bug that made it so formidable; it was a resource black hole
it's still a bad ass bug and we don't understand it, but if the hospitalization rate is a fraction of initial estimates, then that changes a lot of the underlying math for infrastructure, manpower, manufacturing, etc.
plus, we don't even have a proven therapeutic yet
i'm thinking now if we can make it to August, we'll have a legit protocol in place that drives that hospitalization rate down even farther, especially for the working ages
that's the only thing i can come up with to throw cold water on those hospitalization figures
the hospitalization rate being initially reported at 15-20% (as in that many people were going to require a bed and an O2 canister at least) was always the thing about this bug that made it so formidable; it was a resource black hole
it's still a bad ass bug and we don't understand it, but if the hospitalization rate is a fraction of initial estimates, then that changes a lot of the underlying math for infrastructure, manpower, manufacturing, etc.
plus, we don't even have a proven therapeutic yet
i'm thinking now if we can make it to August, we'll have a legit protocol in place that drives that hospitalization rate down even farther, especially for the working ages
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I remember how one of the biggest lines of thinking early on were that if you were going to get this virus, you should get it early before ICUs filled up and we ran out of ventilators.
The more we learn, my thought is you want to get this thing as late as possible, after the medical community has learned a lot more about the disease process and how to attack it.
The more we learn, my thought is you want to get this thing as late as possible, after the medical community has learned a lot more about the disease process and how to attack it.
no doubt in my mind
Another general article discussing the value of Antibody tests and interpreting the results.
https://www.propublica.org/article/what-antibody-studies-can-tell-you-and-more-importantly-what-they-cant
YMMV
https://www.propublica.org/article/what-antibody-studies-can-tell-you-and-more-importantly-what-they-cant
YMMV
I'd like an MD to weigh in since I am probably misremembering.
but isnt a big part of the reason ICU beds weren't over run is because we started proning people and keeping them on O2 longer rather than putting them on a vent?
but isnt a big part of the reason ICU beds weren't over run is because we started proning people and keeping them on O2 longer rather than putting them on a vent?
For me, this has always been one of the biggest advantages we gained from flattening the curve. Yes, I wanted to limit infections and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed while reducing deaths, all of that - that was most important. But, I really wanted to buy time for treatments and dissection of this disease.cone said:
the biggest doubt i have is that the sero studies are just completely wrong, off by factors of 5 or more
that's the only thing i can come up with to throw cold water on those hospitalization figures
the hospitalization rate being initially reported at 15-20% (as in that many people were going to require a bed and an O2 canister at least) was always the thing about this bug that made it so formidable; it was a resource black hole
it's still a bad ass bug and we don't understand it, but if the hospitalization rate is a fraction of initial estimates, then that changes a lot of the underlying math for infrastructure, manpower, manufacturing, etc.
plus, we don't even have a proven therapeutic yet
i'm thinking now if we can make it to August, we'll have a legit protocol in place that drives that hospitalization rate down even farther, especially for the working ages
The fact that we've not overwhelmed the hospitals and have starting figuring out drugs that just might be working is is great. The fact that we may have even figured out we should hold off on intubation? Holy smokes. If holding out on intubation proves to be fairly successful, that's freaking amazing and a really worthy reason for biding time.
To me, we've also given hospitals a great chance to reevaluate their preparedness for this upcoming flu season. Hopefully we've utilized the time we've bought properly and are prepared to fight hard during the fall/winter.. I think we have, and I'm excited about that.
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