% change in deaths from all causes, Mar/Apr 2020 vs avg during same period 2015-2019
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Last: 5 yr ago by rust86
Interesting info, thanks for posting.
Sweden rolling along at +18%.
Texaggie7nine said:
Funnily enough, the "it's just a flu" folks have started spinning this as "it's the shut down causing the deaths".
Quote:
If excess deaths were just capturing heart attacks at home, deaths directly related to lockdown etc, we'd expect excess mort to rise similarly everywhere.
But we see far bigger spikes where outbreaks are worst.
Texaggie7nine said:
Funnily enough, the "it's just a flu" folks have started spinning this as "it's the shut down causing the deaths".
It will be a combo of that and "they were going to die in the next month or two anyhow" cause apparently all 65+ folks are on death's doorstep as we speak.
Very interesting data.
It will be interesting to follow if the excess death rate follows a similar curve as the virus while shelter in place is still present. For example, looking at the chart for NYC shows a steep uptick and then recently a steady decline. This, at least to me, would suggest that the excess death shouldn't be heavily attributed to non-corona / shelter in place ailments, since the shelter in place is still in effect.
However, as the article mentions, some of the deaths "may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments." But the trends follow outbreak hot spots.
Interesting stuff
It will be interesting to follow if the excess death rate follows a similar curve as the virus while shelter in place is still present. For example, looking at the chart for NYC shows a steep uptick and then recently a steady decline. This, at least to me, would suggest that the excess death shouldn't be heavily attributed to non-corona / shelter in place ailments, since the shelter in place is still in effect.
However, as the article mentions, some of the deaths "may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments." But the trends follow outbreak hot spots.
Interesting stuff
using red highlight makes for a scarier looking graph.
look closely and you see peaks in most cases as high especially in past January months.
not disputing the validity of looking at that data but one needs to look at that and the vertical axis before trying to frighten even more people
look closely and you see peaks in most cases as high especially in past January months.
not disputing the validity of looking at that data but one needs to look at that and the vertical axis before trying to frighten even more people
All Cause Deaths are seasonal and should be compared YOY by Month, not as you're suggesting of Jan vs MarchJP_Losman said:
using red highlight makes for a scarier looking graph.
look closely and you see peaks in most cases as high especially in past January months.
not disputing the validity of looking at that data but one needs to look at that and the vertical axis before trying to frighten even more people
with a highly contagious infection, even one with a low lethality rate, you would expect a time compressed event that shows up as a spike. not saying it is trivial at all, but a rare phenomenon compared to other pandemics?
~5% of positive cases have died, and roughly 90% of THOSE DEATHS had comorbidity.JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:Texaggie7nine said:
Funnily enough, the "it's just a flu" folks have started spinning this as "it's the shut down causing the deaths".
It will be a combo of that and "they were going to die in the next month or two anyhow" cause apparently all 65+ folks are on death's doorstep as we speak.
So of a 1000 positive cases, roughly 50 will die, and 45 of those who die had a handful of specific yet very common underlying chronic conditions (cancer, heart conditions, diabetes, etc).
Only 5 out of 1000 positives, or 1/2%, will die with no other conditions.
So yes, you said it, 99.5% of those who have died/will die were likely to die sometime in the near future. Maybe next month or two, maybe next year or two, who knows, but they had a chronic condition that definitely shortened their life and are considered pretty vulnerable. Quarantine them and allow the rest of us to live our lives is what should have happened a month ago.
Sorry, but I have issues with any discussion of mass pandemic deaths being discussed with a smile and "Funny enough".Texaggie7nine said:
Funnily enough, the "it's just a flu" folks have started spinning this as "it's the shut down causing the deaths".
It may just be a funny political game to you, but good grief man, it isn't to many.
You do realize that more than half of Americans have at least one comorbitity.
The fact that only 5% didn't is also a factor of how rare not having a comorbitity is and not just the impact of having a comorbitity.
The fact that only 5% didn't is also a factor of how rare not having a comorbitity is and not just the impact of having a comorbitity.
99.5% of people with high blood pressure and diabetes are going to die within the next month or two? What?62strat said:~5% of positive cases have died, and roughly 90% of THOSE DEATHS had comorbidity.JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:Texaggie7nine said:
Funnily enough, the "it's just a flu" folks have started spinning this as "it's the shut down causing the deaths".
It will be a combo of that and "they were going to die in the next month or two anyhow" cause apparently all 65+ folks are on death's doorstep as we speak.
So of a 1000 positive cases, roughly 50 will die, and 45 of those who die had a handful of specific yet very common underlying chronic conditions (cancer, heart conditions, diabetes, etc).
Only 5 out of 1000 positives, or 1/2%, will die with no other conditions.
So yes, you said it, 99.5% of those who have died/will die were likely to die sometime in the near future. Maybe next month or two, maybe next year or two, who knows, but they had a chronic condition that definitely shortened their life and are considered pretty vulnerable. Quarantine them and allow the rest of us to live our lives is what should have happened a month ago.
Ok, sadly enough. Are you happy?
7nine
What a hack.... Just picking and choosing the graphs that show what they want i.e. NYC, and manipulating the visuals to make them scary. Where is the graph for the USA? I guarantee that all cause mortality in the United States is DOWN!.
Citation please.Duncan Idaho said:
You do realize that more than half of Americans have at least one comorbitity.
Because there is little interest in looking at death rates of places with very little rates of infection.harge57 said:
What a hack.... Just picking and choosing the graphs that show what they want i.e. NYC, and manipulating the visuals to make them scary. Where is the graph for the USA? I guarantee that all cause mortality in the United States is DOWN!.
Point is, where outbreaks have happened, death rates rise significantly.
7nine
Chronic disease =/ comorbidity as it relates to COVIDHotardAg07 said:
https://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/resources/infographic/chronic-diseases.htm
60% per the CDC
Chronic diseases plus obesity put the rate at over half the adult population easily.tysker said:Citation please.Duncan Idaho said:
You do realize that more than half of Americans have at least one comorbitity.
7nine
With nursing homes hard hit and a median fatality age in the US of about 80, I think it's fair to ask how many of the deaths are those which would have occurred in the next 6, 12, or 24 months but were shifted forward to the present.
You think if a person had a medical history of a chronic disease they would not be listed as a comorbidity?tysker said:Chronic disease =/ comorbidity as it relates to COVIDHotardAg07 said:
https://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/resources/infographic/chronic-diseases.htm
60% per the CDC
7nine
High-risk obesity for COVID patients are those with BMI over 40, per the CDC. While many Americans are 'obese' with BMIs over 30, there arent nearly as many with BMI approaching 40.Texaggie7nine said:Chronic diseases plus obesity put the rate at over half the adult population easily.tysker said:Citation please.Duncan Idaho said:
You do realize that more than half of Americans have at least one comorbitity.
In the White House plan to re-open, they said that vunerable individuals should remain sheltered until Phase 3.tysker said:Chronic disease =/ comorbidity as it relates to COVIDHotardAg07 said:
https://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/resources/infographic/chronic-diseases.htm
60% per the CDC
Vunerable individuals are defined as:
That's straight from the White House re-open plan.Quote:
1. Elderly individuals.
2. Individuals with serious underlying health conditions, including high blood pressure, chronic lung disease, diabetes, obesity, asthma, and those whose immune system is compromised such as by chemotherapy for cancer and other conditions requiring such therapy.
The important phrasing is "serious underlying health conditions." These factors still doesn't come close to a majority of Americans. High-risk as per the CDC website:HotardAg07 said:In the White House plan to re-open, they said that vunerable individuals should remain sheltered until Phase 3.tysker said:Chronic disease =/ comorbidity as it relates to COVIDHotardAg07 said:
https://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/resources/infographic/chronic-diseases.htm
60% per the CDC
Vunerable individuals are defined as:That's straight from the White House re-open plan.Quote:
1. Elderly individuals.
2. Individuals with serious underlying health conditions, including high blood pressure, chronic lung disease, diabetes, obesity, asthma, and those whose immune system is compromised such as by chemotherapy for cancer and other conditions requiring such therapy.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/groups-at-higher-risk.html
I am derive neither happiness or sadness from your posts, you thankfully have no bearing on me or my well-being. But as a reader of this thread who doesn't feel the need to post, I find your sense of "humor" disturbing, and as a fellow Aggie, disappointing.Texaggie7nine said:
Ok, sadly enough. Are you happy?
As a tangent to the OP, I find it interesting that the first cases in Houston were supposedly due to an Egyptian cruise vacation, correct? And yet we still don't hear/read about the Egyptian COVID outbreak. In Egypt the numbers seem to be getting worse (not sure they're trying to flatten the curve) but one would think that after 6-7 weeks Egypt would be further along, considering that country was the supposed source of many cases in Houston.
comorbidity definition is two conditions..Duncan Idaho said:
You do realize that more than half of Americans have at least one comorbitity.
The fact that only 5% didn't is also a factor of how rare not having a comorbitity is and not just the impact of having a comorbitity.
how do you have one comorbidity?
62strat said:comorbidity definition is two conditions..Duncan Idaho said:
You do realize that more than half of Americans have at least one comorbitity.
The fact that only 5% didn't is also a factor of how rare not having a comorbitity is and not just the impact of having a comorbitity.
how do you have one comorbidity?
Covid-19 and high blood pressure = 2 conditions.
The term isn't trimorbity.
62strat said:comorbidity definition is two conditions..Duncan Idaho said:
You do realize that more than half of Americans have at least one comorbitity.
The fact that only 5% didn't is also a factor of how rare not having a comorbitity is and not just the impact of having a comorbitity.
how do you have one comorbidity?
I believe, in this case, corona is the implied "other".
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