Look at CDC reported deaths

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Potcake
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In reply to aginlakeway • 12:37p, 5/2/20
AG
aginlakeway said:
Philip J Fry said:
Joe Exotic said:
jblaschke said:
Complete Idiot said:
Predictions are for an annual GDP drop of 5%. You are selling America short if you think our economy is killed and dead. We are the strongest economy in the world, while this is certainly an economic hit, every country is in the same boat and we will still come out the leader. The stimulus, the expanded unemployment eligibility and enhanced payments - it's because we are an economic juggernaut.

I'm not diminishing the impact to those individuals and small businesses impacted, but disagree when anyone says the whole deal is "killed" or "destroyed". Don't underestimate America.
Lol, tell that to the millions out of work.


Or the millions at or near retirement and their retirement accounts are now decimated.


Decimated? If you are retired or near retirement, aren't you supposed to put your money in safe investments at that point and not stocks?
Agree. No one close to retirement should be in anything that risky.

I lost about 10% or so. It's almost all back. Paper loss.


So yours actually was decimated.
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ETFan
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In reply to 94chem • 12:44p, 5/2/20
94chem said:
AggieChemist said:
This discussion is always framed by the false dichotomy of "save lives" vs "save the economy". Had we done nothing and we were stacking bodies with runaway COVID, there is absolutely no way we don't tank the economy anyway.



Yep. But people like everything to be black and white. It gives the illusion of control. Either the control you feel when you get your way, or the rage you feel when you didn't. Either way, there's peace that comes from having no doubt. Too bad that's not how the real world works, though.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Potcake • 12:45p, 5/2/20
AG
Potcake said:
aginlakeway said:
Philip J Fry said:
Joe Exotic said:
jblaschke said:
Complete Idiot said:
Predictions are for an annual GDP drop of 5%. You are selling America short if you think our economy is killed and dead. We are the strongest economy in the world, while this is certainly an economic hit, every country is in the same boat and we will still come out the leader. The stimulus, the expanded unemployment eligibility and enhanced payments - it's because we are an economic juggernaut.

I'm not diminishing the impact to those individuals and small businesses impacted, but disagree when anyone says the whole deal is "killed" or "destroyed". Don't underestimate America.
Lol, tell that to the millions out of work.


Or the millions at or near retirement and their retirement accounts are now decimated.


Decimated? If you are retired or near retirement, aren't you supposed to put your money in safe investments at that point and not stocks?
Agree. No one close to retirement should be in anything that risky.

I lost about 10% or so. It's almost all back. Paper loss.


So yours actually was decimated.


How so?

I'm up 40 percent since Jan 2017 with minimal contributions. Paper losses are just that.

Actually i just checked. We're pretty much right where we were as of Jan 2020. So no on decimated.

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canagian
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In reply to JRB78 • 12:48p, 5/2/20
AG
otni said:
barnyard1996 said:
aginlakeway said:
Philip J Fry said:
Joe Exotic said:
jblaschke said:
Complete Idiot said:
Predictions are for an annual GDP drop of 5%. You are selling America short if you think our economy is killed and dead. We are the strongest economy in the world, while this is certainly an economic hit, every country is in the same boat and we will still come out the leader. The stimulus, the expanded unemployment eligibility and enhanced payments - it's because we are an economic juggernaut.

I'm not diminishing the impact to those individuals and small businesses impacted, but disagree when anyone says the whole deal is "killed" or "destroyed". Don't underestimate America.
Lol, tell that to the millions out of work.


Or the millions at or near retirement and their retirement accounts are now decimated.


Decimated? If you are retired or near retirement, aren't you supposed to put your money in safe investments at that point and not stocks?
Agree. No one close to retirement should be in anything that risky.

I lost about 10% or so. It's almost all back. Paper loss.
If retired should have a set number of years in safe places which depends on your situation Can still invest for long term.
Yes, even in retirement you will need to have some money in stocks if you want to have any hope of keeping up with inflation. Of course, that assumes this is only a temporary setback and not the next depression.
I'm amazed at the number of people who don't understand this. It isn't enough to save to get TO retirement, you need to save to get THROUGH retirement. Since few employers offer pensions anymore, it's pretty much necessary for most mortals to have a significant fraction of their retirement savings in equities, even post-retirement.

Those of us close to retirement (I retired 3 years ago) are old enough to remember double digit annual inflation in the 70s and early 80s, something that most younger people have never experienced. Try dealing with that on a fixed income. I remember being thrilled when we bought our first house in 1990 that we were able to get a 30 year mortgage with a rate of "only" 9.5%.

So the thought that "No one close to retirement should be in anything that risky" is completely misplaced.
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Potcake
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In reply to aginlakeway • 9:25p, 5/2/20
AG
The definition of decimate is to reduce by a tenth, generally referring to troops, but still a loss of 1/10.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Potcake • 9:26p, 5/2/20
AG
Potcake said:
The definition of decimate is to reduce by a tenth, generally referring to troops, but still a loss of 1/10.


Learn something new every day! Thanks!
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Knucklesammich
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:31p, 5/2/20
Meant to reply to someone else apologies
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gougler08
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3:37p, 5/4/20
AG
So maybe a dumb question on this...but what did this link show a week or two ago? Was it in the low 30's and has always been lagging or is this a new way they're reporting the data, which would make it seem that they've been way over-estimating
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Forum Troll
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In reply to gougler08 • 4:43p, 5/4/20
AG
gougler08 said:
So maybe a dumb question on this...but what did this link show a week or two ago? Was it in the low 30's and has always been lagging or is this a new way they're reporting the data, which would make it seem that they've been way over-estimating


Its just received death certificate data, meaning they haven't received all the available death certificate data. If you go to the main CDC page it shows the actual death total.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
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Incorrect, sir!
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In reply to aginlakeway • 6:19p, 5/4/20
aginlakeway said:


How so?

I'm up 40 percent since Jan 2017 with minimal contributions. Paper losses are just that.

Actually i just checked. We're pretty much right where we were as of Jan 2020. So no on decimated.



Sounds like you were invested in the equivalent of the S&P 500, which had a 3 year total return of 41.5% between January 2017 and January 2020, or an annualized return of 12.3%. That's somewhat below the 15.2% annualized return of the previous 8 year period from January 2009 to January 2017, but modestly above the ~10% historical annual return.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 6:54p, 5/4/20
AG
AgsMyDude said:
Pinche Abogado said:
So, we killed the economy for that? Wow.


Shutting things down prevented it from getting out of control.

I know, hard to comprehend.
People keep saying this, but I remain of the opinion that its too early to tell.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
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94chem
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 8:20a, 5/5/20
lda6339 said:
AgsMyDude said:
Pinche Abogado said:
So, we killed the economy for that? Wow.


Shutting things down prevented it from getting out of control.

I know, hard to comprehend.
People keep saying this, but I remain of the opinion that its too early to tell.


What is your prediction for the month of June?
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Inca
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In reply to Joe Exotic • 9:36a, 5/5/20
AG
Joe Exotic said:


Or the millions at or near retirement and their retirement accounts are now decimated.


My husband is retiring this summer. We are okay for retirement because our portfolio was appropriately diversified based on the fact retirement was so near. Yes, we have lost some but as of now it's less than 7%. It may not be ideal but it is manageable.

And we are still showing gain vs the 12/31/18 balance.
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Get Off My Lawn
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In reply to 94chem • 11:47a, 5/5/20
94chem said:
lda6339 said:
AgsMyDude said:
Pinche Abogado said:
So, we killed the economy for that? Wow.


Shutting things down prevented it from getting out of control.

I know, hard to comprehend.
People keep saying this, but I remain of the opinion that its too early to tell.


What is your prediction for the month of June?
Flattened curve =/= saved lives. It spreads them out. Perhaps you save some IF the health system would have broken down and some who could have been saved prolonged ate it - but the idea that was saved lives isn't as simple as comparing June in parallel universes.
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Aggies2009
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In reply to Get Off My Lawn • 11:52a, 5/5/20
AG
Get Off My Lawn said:
94chem said:
lda6339 said:
AgsMyDude said:
Pinche Abogado said:
So, we killed the economy for that? Wow.


Shutting things down prevented it from getting out of control.

I know, hard to comprehend.
People keep saying this, but I remain of the opinion that its too early to tell.


What is your prediction for the month of June?
Flattened curve =/= saved lives. It spreads them out. Perhaps you save some IF the health system would have broken down and some who could have been saved prolonged ate it - but the idea that was saved lives isn't as simple as comparing June in parallel universes.
I get the idea behind flattening the curve- it helped hospitals keep from getting overrun, in theory.

That said, most places in the US never came close to getting overrun. I think in Brazos county, the most we had hospitalized at one time was something like 10, but don't quote me onthat.
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