Comparing annual rates would be one way to go.

You could also compare actual vs expected deaths, looking at excess deaths.

IFoA is doing that in Britain. T'hey're looking week by week at the death rates and comparing to the prior year.
https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/continuous-mortality-investigation/other-cmi-outputs/mortality-monitor




CDC also has that available (note that there is likely reporting lag in the most recent few weeks in the CDC data).
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm




On the individual level, of course you cant tell if someone would have died regardless. in the overall population level, you can be reasonably confident whether the total deaths would have happened regardless.

This will be studied for years. Very interesting stuff, IMO.

From what I've seen, in places where it's hit hard (NY, NJ, MI} the number of total deaths from mid-March to mid-April was around 50% higher than average for that time period. That makes it seem very unlikely that these are people who would've just died of something else if there was no covid-19. Also makes it seem pretty obvious that we're undercounting covid deaths, given that so many people are hunkered down inside and therefore less exposed to some common dangers.

ActualTalkingThermos said:

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From what I've seen, in places where it's hit hard (NY, NJ, MI} the number of total deaths from mid-March to mid-April was around 50% higher than average for that time period. That makes it seem very unlikely that these are people who would've just died of something else if there was no covid-19. Also makes it seem pretty obvious that we're undercounting covid deaths, given that so many people are hunkered down inside and therefore less exposed to some common dangers.

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They also have less access to care of their non-Covid needs and fear going to the emergency room which can lead to more non-Covid death.

My dad had a heart procedure re-scheduled twice because it wasn't an emergency surgery. He didn't die but ignoring the issue could have easily led to a non-Covid death.

It's a good question OP. I think the easiest way to look at it is to count all of the folks that were in their 80's and 90's when they died of CV. According to mortality rates, these folks were already on bonus days, so in theory many of them would have died within the next year. When you see how many folks in their 80's and 90's are dying of this disease, you realize much of the fear was overblown, and history will show the self-inflicted economic damage was an unforced error by our leaders and the experts they relied upon.