Doctor discovers evidence COVID circulating in France in December 2019

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JP_Losman
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10:19p, 5/4/20
AG
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/france-coronavirus-december-death-intl/index.html

If a death was caused in December, the virus was likely already endemic in the population weeks beforehand. That is 3-4 months of solid spread before the lockdowns commenced
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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In reply to JP_Losman • 11:53p, 5/4/20
It was in more places than France by then. It is very contagious and it was freely traveling around the world in November. So for the very first signs to show up in other cities around the world in December would make a lot of sense. I know many don't agree with that sentiment but if it's as contagious as they say and Wuhan had open travel it was spreading.
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TCTTS
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In reply to Detmersdislocatedshoulder • 1:27a, 5/5/20
AG
This is what I've never understood from those who say the facts are indisputable that it wasn't here prior to January. Because those same people also say it's highly contagious and spreads incredibly fast. So, yeah, if Wuhan had open travel in November/December '19, and the virus is highly contagious, how did it stay contained only to Wuhan/China in November/December? Granted, I know next to nothing about this kind of stuff, but on the surface, it just doesn't add up. In fact, it seems impossible that it wasn't here - or in Europe - in late '19.
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Pulmcrit_ag
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6:53a, 5/5/20
The two situations are contradictory in that if it is so contagious then how could it not have been elsewhere but if it was elsewhere and is as contagious as we think why didn't we see more symptomatic disease much earlier on, more consistent with what transpired over last three months. Will be interesting to see how far back it traces in different areas of US and Europe.

I would add it seems like in both South Korea and New York super spreader events is what really kicked off spread of the disease. You also didn't see healthcare workers getting sick prior to the current timeline, which if we suspected symptomatic but previously unidentified cases would be somewhat inconsistent as well because presumptively these persons were intubated and interacted with without extra precaution.
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Nagler
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In reply to TCTTS • 7:15a, 5/5/20
AG
TCTTS said:
This is what I've never understood from those who say the facts are indisputable that it wasn't here prior to January. Because those same people also say it's highly contagious and spreads incredibly fast. So, yeah, if Wuhan had open travel in November/December '19, and the virus is highly contagious, how did it stay contained only to Wuhan/China in November/December? Granted, I know next to nothing about this kind of stuff, but on the surface, it just doesn't add up. In fact, it seems impossible that it wasn't here - or in Europe - in late '19.

My thoughts exactly.
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slacker00
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In reply to JP_Losman • 7:31a, 5/5/20
AG
Journal article:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643
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Cancelled
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7:33a, 5/5/20
My i my concern with this type of information is the reason for or against these stories. This type of information is harmful to the Doomers/2 weekers and helpful to the Openers. I side with the Openers, but we shouldn't just jump on something because it confirms our thoughts...either way.
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Bert315
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In reply to Pulmcrit_ag • 7:49a, 5/5/20
AG
Pulmcrit_ag said:
The two situations are contradictory in that if it is so contagious then how could it not have been elsewhere but if it was elsewhere and is as contagious as we think why didn't we see more symptomatic disease much earlier on, more consistent with what transpired over last three months. Will be interesting to see how far back it traces in different areas of US and Europe.

I would add it seems like in both South Korea and New York super spreader events is what really kicked off spread of the disease. You also didn't see healthcare workers getting sick prior to the current timeline, which if we suspected symptomatic but previously unidentified cases would be somewhat inconsistent as well because presumptively these persons were intubated and interacted with without extra precaution.


I would somewhat agree with you but I think it was originally miss diagnosed as the flu. We are pending the antibody testing at my office but at the end of January we had a terrible flu like bug come through our office. 70%+ of my staff was out sick over a week and a half period. Flu tests came back negative with several of my team members having major respiratory issues and being hospitalized. I say all that to say that not once did anyone connect the dots that it could be what was going on in Wuhan.

It is possible because even the doctors at the time didn't think about it nor was there testing. I know our hospitals have done pretty extensive testing of our employees and found that a pretty high percentage are completely a symptomatic even when testing positive. It effects people differently.
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Pulmcrit_ag
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7:51a, 5/5/20
Should be apolitical and get to the bottom of it. All new findings should continue to inform our response. Management of these patients in Italy and recommended by experts there was taken as gospel but with something this new everything should be continually re-examined. Taking data from completely different populace with different genetic makeup and social behavior and thinking it would fit us the same way isn't sound. That being said, the assumption at that point is that it could be worse or be better but unknown.
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Pulmcrit_ag
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In reply to Bert315 • 7:58a, 5/5/20
End of January even with current timeline we know it was in US so it's not implausible. That being said, non-flu respiratory illnesses can still make you terribly sick and are very contagious. I would be interested to hear if your office does have high coronavirus antibody prevalence when results return.
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dwood21
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In reply to Pulmcrit_ag • 9:07a, 5/5/20
AG
Pulmcrit_ag said:
The two situations are contradictory in that if it is so contagious then how could it not have been elsewhere but if it was elsewhere and is as contagious as we think why didn't we see more symptomatic disease much earlier on, more consistent with what transpired over last three months. Will be interesting to see how far back it traces in different areas of US and Europe.

I would add it seems like in both South Korea and New York super spreader events is what really kicked off spread of the disease. You also didn't see healthcare workers getting sick prior to the current timeline, which if we suspected symptomatic but previously unidentified cases would be somewhat inconsistent as well because presumptively these persons were intubated and interacted with without extra precaution.


Because roughly 98% of cases are asymptomatic and over 99% survive the virus so it took time before enough people with serious/critical cases got the virus before we realized it was here.

Plus as others have mentioned doctors believed those with symptoms either had the flu or had a respiratory illness because if it was here in December/November China hasn't even reported it yet so no doctor knew about it.
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SkiMo
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In reply to dwood21 • 9:14a, 5/5/20
AG
dwood21 said:
Pulmcrit_ag said:
The two situations are contradictory in that if it is so contagious then how could it not have been elsewhere but if it was elsewhere and is as contagious as we think why didn't we see more symptomatic disease much earlier on, more consistent with what transpired over last three months. Will be interesting to see how far back it traces in different areas of US and Europe.

I would add it seems like in both South Korea and New York super spreader events is what really kicked off spread of the disease. You also didn't see healthcare workers getting sick prior to the current timeline, which if we suspected symptomatic but previously unidentified cases would be somewhat inconsistent as well because presumptively these persons were intubated and interacted with without extra precaution.


Because roughly 98% of cases are asymptomatic and over 99% survive the virus so it took time before enough people with serious/critical cases got the virus before we realized it was here.

Plus as others have mentioned doctors believed those with symptoms either had the flu or had a respiratory illness because if it was here in December/November China hasn't even reported it yet so no doctor knew about it.
Don't think you're right on that one. If that was the case we'd have never shut down the economy.
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AgsMyDude
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9:24a, 5/5/20
AG
It will be interesting to watch and see if they find more. If this is the only positive result around that time frame it's very possible it's a false positive via cross-contamination, etc.

I also don't really understand how it can be considered extremely infectious yet the first cases in US took some time.


  • China's first "reported" (data is garbage) case is Nov 17
  • US first case was January 19 (patient returned from Wuhan Jan 15th)
  • Travel wasn't restricted until Jan 31st


IMO this doesn't add up logically. How many people travel to and from Wuhan in a given day, no way it took about 2 months to reach the US with no travel restrictions.
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dwood21
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In reply to SkiMo • 9:26a, 5/5/20
AG
SkiMo said:
dwood21 said:
Pulmcrit_ag said:
The two situations are contradictory in that if it is so contagious then how could it not have been elsewhere but if it was elsewhere and is as contagious as we think why didn't we see more symptomatic disease much earlier on, more consistent with what transpired over last three months. Will be interesting to see how far back it traces in different areas of US and Europe.

I would add it seems like in both South Korea and New York super spreader events is what really kicked off spread of the disease. You also didn't see healthcare workers getting sick prior to the current timeline, which if we suspected symptomatic but previously unidentified cases would be somewhat inconsistent as well because presumptively these persons were intubated and interacted with without extra precaution.


Because roughly 98% of cases are asymptomatic and over 99% survive the virus so it took time before enough people with serious/critical cases got the virus before we realized it was here.

Plus as others have mentioned doctors believed those with symptoms either had the flu or had a respiratory illness because if it was here in December/November China hasn't even reported it yet so no doctor knew about it.
Don't think you're right on that one. If that was the case we'd have never shut down the economy.

Sorry you're correct I misspoke. I meant to say roughly 98% of cases are asymptomatic or mild. The mild cases especially back in December to doctors would have looked very similar to the flu or the common cold (which is actually caused by a different type of coronavirus)
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JP_Losman
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 9:32a, 5/5/20
AG
I believe around 3000 people from China were coming into the US every day to SFO LAX and others.
Up to the Jan 29 travel ban
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BadMoonRisin
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9:38a, 5/5/20
AG
I posted this on march 26th, questioning the logic behind the infectiousness of the disease versus the timeframe that it arrived in the US.

And another doctor posted something a week or two earlier about do we really think the CDC's first case in the US is actually the real patient zero here?

The threads received similar answers:

Its impossible, genetic testing, near certainty that it could not have been here any earlier.

With this finding, this proves that the science is not "settled".

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3102914/1
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to JP_Losman • 9:42a, 5/5/20
AG
JP_Losman said:
I believe around 3000 people from China were coming into the US every day to SFO LAX and others.
Up to the Jan 29 travel ban
And then a reported 40K after the ban through 4/15


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html
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Old Buffalo
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 9:50a, 5/5/20
AG
AgsMyDude said:
JP_Losman said:
I believe around 3000 people from China were coming into the US every day to SFO LAX and others.
Up to the Jan 29 travel ban
And then a reported 430K after the ban through 4/15


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html
Did you even read the article because the first line is literally....

Quote:
Since Chinese officials disclosed the outbreak of a mysterious pneumonialike illness to international health officials on New Year's Eve, at least 430,000 people have arrived in the United States on direct flights from China, including nearly 40,000 in the two months after President Trump imposed restrictions on such travel, according to an analysis of data collected in both countries.
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to Old Buffalo • 9:55a, 5/5/20
AG
Old Buffalo said:
AgsMyDude said:
JP_Losman said:
I believe around 3000 people from China were coming into the US every day to SFO LAX and others.
Up to the Jan 29 travel ban
And then a reported 430K after the ban through 4/15


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html
Did you even read the article because the first line is literally....

Quote:
Since Chinese officials disclosed the outbreak of a mysterious pneumonialike illness to international health officials on New Year's Eve, at least 430,000 people have arrived in the United States on direct flights from China, including nearly 40,000 in the two months after President Trump imposed restrictions on such travel, according to an analysis of data collected in both countries.


I did. See the edit? I had 40K and then incorrectly updated. I'll literally fix....
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Keegan99
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9:59a, 5/5/20
AG
Until this thing hits a nursing home or similar facility, causing a spike in hospitalizations and fatalities, it's unlikely to be detected in a typical, non-dense American community. The median age of death is about 80.

You could have plenty of spread in the under 60 demographic without anyone batting an eye.

As to nursing homes:

Quote:
"These facilities account for a disproportionate number of COVID-19 deaths, Grabowski noted. "Nursing homes account for about 0.5% of individuals nationwide ... and yet the flawed data we have is that 25% of the deaths are in nursing homes," he said. Data from The New York Times support that conclusion, with the paper reporting that "more than 63,000 residents and staff members at those facilities have contracted the virus, and more than 10,500 have died. That means that nearly a quarter of the deaths in the pandemic have been linked to long-term care facilities."

Grabowski said that percentage is probably an undercount: "I think the true number is closer to 50%," he noted.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86157
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DTP02
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In reply to Keegan99 • 10:19a, 5/5/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
Until this thing hits a nursing home or similar facility, causing a spike in hospitalizations and fatalities, it's unlikely to be detected in a typical, non-dense American community. The median age of death is about 80.

You could have plenty of spread in the under 60 demographic without anyone batting an eye.

As to nursing homes:

Quote:
"These facilities account for a disproportionate number of COVID-19 deaths, Grabowski noted. "Nursing homes account for about 0.5% of individuals nationwide ... and yet the flawed data we have is that 25% of the deaths are in nursing homes," he said. Data from The New York Times support that conclusion, with the paper reporting that "more than 63,000 residents and staff members at those facilities have contracted the virus, and more than 10,500 have died. That means that nearly a quarter of the deaths in the pandemic have been linked to long-term care facilities."

Grabowski said that percentage is probably an undercount: "I think the true number is closer to 50%," he noted.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86157


I think at this point most everyone is aware there is a big disparity in severity for elderly vs young and that nursing homes have been hit hard, but I still don't think the public and policymakers truly appreciate the numbers and factor that into their views.
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Keegan99
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10:30a, 5/5/20
AG
Seattle had community spread for over a month and they only detected it for two reasons:

1) It got into a nursing home.

2) UW Virology just happened to be doing a flu study, taking samples from the population, and stumbled across it.
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Knucklesammich
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10:49a, 5/5/20
Question: Is it possible to have Flu and COVID at the same time? I assume yes?

Meaning could it be spreading and be masked pre-pandemic by folks testing positive for the flu even in at risk groups and we didn't realize what we were getting hit with?

My parents for example both tested positive for Flu A and my dad was in the hospital.

Both had Tamiflu, and did all the normal treatments for Flu. Tamiflu appears to have done what it does, but both talk about how their lungs just went downhill.

He was talking about it this weekend with me, "I never felt bad, never had a fever in the hospital. By the time I went to the hospital I didn't feel like I had the flu. I felt like I was walking in the mountains. I could breath, but I couldn't get air. It was scary"

My mom described a similar situation. She taught for nearly 50 years in elementary and middle schools...she's had all the bugs multiple times into her late 60s/early 70s.

He was on oxygen and antibiotics for around 3 days and then oxygen at home for another couple of weeks until his numbers got to where they needed to be. Figure 3-4 weeks of total time down/recovering.

Never tested for COVID...it was late January so it wasn't really top of mind or readily available I would assume from a testing perspective.

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dellgriffith
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11:19a, 5/5/20
AG
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3101132/replies/56206096#56206096

I used common sense to come to this realization. Something too few people were using while wrecking our economy and freedoms as Americans.

Using "science" to make all of our decisions is very stupid, especially given we have studied this virus in vivo for only a few months.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Capitol Ag
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In reply to TCTTS • 11:24a, 5/5/20
AG
TCTTS said:
This is what I've never understood from those who say the facts are indisputable that it wasn't here prior to January. Because those same people also say it's highly contagious and spreads incredibly fast. So, yeah, if Wuhan had open travel in November/December '19, and the virus is highly contagious, how did it stay contained only to Wuhan/China in November/December? Granted, I know next to nothing about this kind of stuff, but on the surface, it just doesn't add up. In fact, it seems impossible that it wasn't here - or in Europe - in late '19.
Yup. Late December I had what the doctored termed "just a virus" that hit me pretty hard, and I don't get hit hard by things. Totally anecdotal until I can get screened for antibodies. But this was different than anything I have had before. It just seems that it wouldn't take that long to get here given how much people travel these days.
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ETFan
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11:56a, 5/5/20
What explains the sero studies? While the prevalence is 'high', it's nowhere near what you'd expect if this thing had "run through the population this past winter". Innate immune response kicking COVID19 before adaptive is needed in some people? Immunity just doesn't last very long in those that do develop antibodies?

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BassCowboy33
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12:30p, 5/5/20
We now know it was in Florida as early as Jan 1.
[url] https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200505/coronavirus-florida-patients-in-florida-had-symptoms-as-early-as-january?template=ampart&__twitter_impression=true[/url]
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gougler08
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In reply to dellgriffith • 12:32p, 5/5/20
AG
dellgriffith said:
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3101132/replies/56206096#56206096

I used common sense to come to this realization. Something too few people were using while wrecking our economy and freedoms as Americans.

Using "science" to make all of our decisions is very stupid, especially given we have studied this virus in vivo for only a few months.
Adding dellgriffith as one to listen to
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Windy City Ag
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12:40p, 5/5/20
AG
Quote:
This is what I've never understood from those who say the facts are indisputable that it wasn't here prior to January.

The never part is just wrong. It just displays inflexible thinking and an complete reliance on scientific models.

It has been interesting to watch experts in other disciplines who have tried to use models unsuccessfully turn their gaze to the medical community the last few months. These folks know all the incredible pitfalls in trying to model unstable systems. A lot of them come from the economics field and are very math savvy but have a more grain of salt view on whatever the models spews out. I liked this graph. . .tells a lot.

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/05/dumb-reopening-might-just-work.html



Anyway . . never say never. A model is a very crude dumbing down of the complexities of life.
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Windy City Ag
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12:58p, 5/5/20
AG
But to my point above . . .that is a side rant. From my understanding, there is an assumption in the genetic tracing that mutations occur at a predictable rate so you can supposedly carbon date the virus. It will be interesting to see if that argument holds water.
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BigN--00
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In reply to Keegan99 • 2:25p, 5/5/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
Seattle had community spread for over a month and they only detected it for two reasons:

1) It got into a nursing home.

2) UW Virology just happened to be doing a flu study, taking samples from the population, and stumbled across it.
UW Virology got tired of waiting for the CDC and said they were doing a study so they could circumvent CDC/FDA rules regarding diagnostic testing for COVID-19.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to BigN--00 • 2:35p, 5/5/20
AG
The Seattle Flu Study was started in 2018.
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Keegan99
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In reply to BigN--00 • 2:48p, 5/5/20
AG
Not quite.

The Flu Study at UW Virology ran into federal regulations prohibiting use their lab for clinical purposes instead of research purposes.

It was maddening. At one point during the rush of trying to get approval to perform clinical COVID tests, UW had to snail mail physical copies of documents that had already been electronically submitted to the government for approval. Because the government said regulations required physical copies.
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TexasAggie_02
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7:35p, 5/5/20
AG
I know of two very small town high schools that completely shut down for a week in January bc most of the students and teachers had "the flu".
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Belton Ag
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8:46p, 5/5/20
AG
The one thing that struck me most from the clinical pearls thread by Nawlins Ag back in March was that he stated pretty much everyone in the ICU - including asymptomatic trauma patients (whom I presumed were in the ER for non COVID reasons) - had COVID. At the time I was mostly concerned with how infectious it is - and it definitely is highly infectious - but now I'm wondering if in addition it was also circulating earlier than we thought.
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