Why are we doing the phased re-opening if...

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pants
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9:57a, 5/7/20
...governments will not backtrack if the data show signs of a second spike?

Maybe they will backtrack, but I would be very surprised at this point. Case in point: we were all told it would take a week or more to see signs of improvement from shelter-in-place or lockdown, but Texas is moving to phase 2 tomorrow just a week after phase 1 last Friday. It seems like there is no time to observe and react to data trends if they won't wait more than a week.

Talk me off the cynicism edge. It all just seems political and not scientific!
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GAC06
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In reply to pants • 10:05a, 5/7/20
AG
The "lockdown" was largely political and not scientific, so at least its consistent
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BLB_95
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10:09a, 5/7/20
AG
Read this post and you may have your answer.....

https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3110871

The lockdown, social distancing, etc were never to stop transmission, just to slow the spread. It now appears that the lockdown was very effective throughout most of the country.

At some point you have to allow people to work and businesses to make money. What would be your trigger for opening up? 30% unemployment? Vaccine?

I don't believe a single hospital in Texas was overrun and unable to support their patients. If hospitals begin to fill up then I have no doubt that the restrictions may start back up but at this point in the pandemic, the majority of the country is hurting for no reason.

Just because businesses are opening up with restrictions on capacity and increased preventative operations, you have a choice on which if any establishments you want to support. If you feel strongly about it, then feel free to continue your lockdown and don't leave your house for a few more weeks and see what happens.
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Knucklesammich
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10:11a, 5/7/20
From a state gov. perspective, Texas is basically dealing with several very large mandates around unemployment, healthcare, and education that all must be funded. Now there is quite a bit of federal money but not enough.

They are faced now with funding programs while dealing with substantially less sales tax revenue on top of a collapsed Oil and Gas market. Not sure what the agricultural side of things look like but its got to be choppy there too.

In short this stuff has to be paid for.

Add on to that the political realities of massive unemployment across the board and the real possibility that whole industrial verticals could be on their knees for years.


Now start looking at the data...its not perfect but read the thread on the UPMC Chief Medical Officer. Deaths and hospitalizations at scale are heavily weighted towards elderly and the very ill. Is there a way to protect those folks while allowing everyone else to generate the money/products necessary to protect them? Not sure but that seems to be where focus is going to move.

When we open back up fully cases will rise but that has to be balanced with other realities.
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BLB_95
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10:17a, 5/7/20
AG
If you are so worried about Texas and our low rates, can you imagine what is happening in the epicenter of New York with things opening up. Look at this pic from May 2nd.... you won't find that in Texas right now.



https://www.welcome2thebronx.com/2020/05/04/social-distancing-enforcement-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-a-tale-of-two-cities-in-nyc/
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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10:21a, 5/7/20
Science
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Austin Ag
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10:23a, 5/7/20
AG
The original goal was to "flatten the curve" to prevent our healthcare system from getting overloaded.

Now the goal among several experts is to prevent any more loss of life.

Fun Fact: Just by doing a strict quarantine of all nursing homes, it has been calculated that ~40% of all COVID deaths could have been prevented.
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eric76
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10:28a, 5/7/20
AG
I was hoping that people would continue to self distance when possible. From reading the Politics Board and seeing the entire hate for the idea that we should do anything other than seek out to get the disease (see the post on Covid Parties) as well as the things in the news about people flocking in groups, it no longer appears that a great many people have any concept of personal responsibility.

I hope that if there are new waves, that whatever restrictions are imposed are on more of a local basis -- for example, on the county or city level -- not by the state.
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Aggies2009
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10:35a, 5/7/20
AG
Governments may try to backtrack, but they know as well as anyone that people won't go back into quarantine. By the end of April, most people were sick of being holed up already and were getting restless. If they tried to send us BACK into quarantine, so many people would just ignore it.
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Aggies2009
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In reply to BLB_95 • 10:38a, 5/7/20
AG
BLB_95 said:
If you are so worried about Texas and our low rates, can you imagine what is happening in the epicenter of New York with things opening up. Look at this pic from May 2nd.... you won't find that in Texas right now.



https://www.welcome2thebronx.com/2020/05/04/social-distancing-enforcement-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-a-tale-of-two-cities-in-nyc/
That is just infuriating. I have several friends in NYC (a few live there, a few went to volunteer and are now pissed they have to pay state tax). They all said that it's not the population density, it's that people just don't care about the orders to stay at home. I somewhat believed them, but pictures like that just prove it. And it's that area of the country that preach to the rest of us that WE need to stay home.
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GAC06
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In reply to Aggies2009 • 10:42a, 5/7/20
AG
Why is it infuriating? You are free to stay away from them.
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JP_Losman
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10:44a, 5/7/20
AG
Those are young people sitting a reasonable distance apart in a park, in the sunlight.
I find that to be reasonable attempted social distancing, given how the virus doesn't spread in outdoors.

Everyone knows there is a contagious virus around. Nobody is shaking hands or making out and crowd surfing
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Aggies2009
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In reply to GAC06 • 10:48a, 5/7/20
AG
GAC06 said:
Why is it infuriating? You are free to stay away from them.
Not that they're going out. But, as I said in that previous post, that area of the country has largely been preaching to others to stay in while they go about their business. I guess it'd be unfair to everyone in that picture because they haven't necessarily done that, but a LOT of people up there have been.

The same reason it's infuriating that the Cuomos in NYC are telling everyone to stay home while they go to the gym and hang out with people after testing positive.

The same reason it's infuriating that a mayor in Beaumont told everyone to stay home while going out to get her nails "did".

The same reason it's infuriating the Chicago mayor has been threatening people and keeping salons closed while going and getting her hair "did".

It's the hypocrisy of these people that's infuriating, not that they're going out. Sorry I wasn't more clear on that.
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SkiMo
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10:56a, 5/7/20
AG
Amazing what tricks a telephoto lens can play with these types of photos. A different angle and lens would likely show all of these groups spaced out much further than it appears in this photo.
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Gramercy Riffs
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11:01a, 5/7/20
AG
Something to keep in mind when you get charged up looking at photos of crowds during this ordeal:

https://petapixel.com/2020/05/02/controversial-photo-of-crowds-on-ca-beach-was-shot-with-a-telephoto-lens/
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Cancelled
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In reply to BLB_95 • 11:03a, 5/7/20
BLB_95 said:
If you are so worried about Texas and our low rates, can you imagine what is happening in the epicenter of New York with things opening up. Look at this pic from May 2nd.... you won't find that in Texas right now.



https://www.welcome2thebronx.com/2020/05/04/social-distancing-enforcement-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-a-tale-of-two-cities-in-nyc/
That girl in the pink sports bra dough. You'll know it when you see it.
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P.U.T.U
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11:14a, 5/7/20
AG
Young healthy people outside...as it should be
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Serotonin
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11:41a, 5/7/20
AG
Always be mindful with these photos that often the photographer uses a telephoto lens which distorts the image to make it appear much more crowded than it is in reality by making the background appear much closer than it really is.

Here's a good example:
https://petapixel.com/2020/05/02/controversial-photo-of-crowds-on-ca-beach-was-shot-with-a-telephoto-lens/

Telephoto lens:


Aerial image of same beach:
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PJYoung
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11:48a, 5/7/20
AG
I do wonder what a strict lock down of nursing homes would look like. Would employees have not gone home at the end of their shifts?

I am certain shutting them down to visitors wouldve helped immensely but in the outbreaks I've read about it was the employees would were thought to have brought the infection into the facilities.

Our local county immediately prohibited nursing home employees from working in more than one facility as one person was responsible for spreading covid to 3 separate nursing homes.
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Mordred
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In reply to Serotonin • 12:16p, 5/7/20
AG
Gator03 said:
Always be mindful with these photos that often the photographer uses a telephoto lens which distorts the image to make it appear much more crowded than it is in reality by making the background appear much closer than it really is.

Here's a good example:
https://petapixel.com/2020/05/02/controversial-photo-of-crowds-on-ca-beach-was-shot-with-a-telephoto-lens/

Telephoto lens:


Aerial image of same beach:
Damn, that's a great investigation and answered every question I had. Thanks for sharing.
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Aggie
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In reply to GAC06 • 12:23p, 5/7/20
AG
GAC06 said:
Why is it infuriating? You are free to stay away from them.


Exactly

Infuriating ?? Really
Why ??

Do some of you people really want to be locked up for the next 6-8 months or longer?
News flash.... Covid 19 is not going anywhere, it's a permanent fixture now.
Who knows when and if a vaccine will be readily available.

Get on with life
The only way to control people is to put fear in them and that's exactly what has happend.
It's surprising to me that so many people still want everything locked down and everyone quarantined.
The numbers don't support it .. not even close.
Cases and deaths.

At this point it's beyond ridiculous to not open everything back up to normal operation.
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AggieOO
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In reply to BLB_95 • 12:25p, 5/7/20
BLB_95 said:
If you are so worried about Texas and our low rates, can you imagine what is happening in the epicenter of New York with things opening up. Look at this pic from May 2nd.... you won't find that in Texas right now.



https://www.welcome2thebronx.com/2020/05/04/social-distancing-enforcement-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-a-tale-of-two-cities-in-nyc/

yes you will. This is from last weekend.


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Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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In reply to AggieOO • 12:32p, 5/7/20
AG
AggieOO said:
BLB_95 said:
If you are so worried about Texas and our low rates, can you imagine what is happening in the epicenter of New York with things opening up. Look at this pic from May 2nd.... you won't find that in Texas right now.



https://www.welcome2thebronx.com/2020/05/04/social-distancing-enforcement-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-a-tale-of-two-cities-in-nyc/

yes you will. This is from last weekend.



Bro I'm pretty sure the latter is one of the water sermon scenes from Ozark.
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AggieOO
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In reply to Orlando Ayala Cant Read • 12:34p, 5/7/20
Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:
AggieOO said:
BLB_95 said:
If you are so worried about Texas and our low rates, can you imagine what is happening in the epicenter of New York with things opening up. Look at this pic from May 2nd.... you won't find that in Texas right now.



https://www.welcome2thebronx.com/2020/05/04/social-distancing-enforcement-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-a-tale-of-two-cities-in-nyc/

yes you will. This is from last weekend.



Bro I'm pretty sure the latter is one of the water sermon scenes from Ozark.
well played.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to AggieOO • 12:41p, 5/7/20
AG
AggieOO said:
BLB_95 said:
If you are so worried about Texas and our low rates, can you imagine what is happening in the epicenter of New York with things opening up. Look at this pic from May 2nd.... you won't find that in Texas right now.



https://www.welcome2thebronx.com/2020/05/04/social-distancing-enforcement-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-a-tale-of-two-cities-in-nyc/

yes you will. This is from last weekend.


And there is a 100% chance several of those people will be in bodily contact with each other, maybe even at the same time
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SkiMo
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 12:47p, 5/7/20
AG
P.U.T.U said:
AggieOO said:
BLB_95 said:
If you are so worried about Texas and our low rates, can you imagine what is happening in the epicenter of New York with things opening up. Look at this pic from May 2nd.... you won't find that in Texas right now.



https://www.welcome2thebronx.com/2020/05/04/social-distancing-enforcement-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-a-tale-of-two-cities-in-nyc/

yes you will. This is from last weekend.


And there is a 100% chance several of those people will be in bodily contact with each other, maybe even at the same time
good thing the coco19 isn't spread through the spermies
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Aggies2009
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In reply to Aggie • 12:52p, 5/7/20
AG
Aggie said:
GAC06 said:
Why is it infuriating? You are free to stay away from them.


Exactly

Infuriating ?? Really
Why ??

Do some of you people really want to be locked up for the next 6-8 months or longer?
News flash.... Covid 19 is not going anywhere, it's a permanent fixture now.
Who knows when and if a vaccine will be readily available.

Get on with life
The only way to control people is to put fear in them and that's exactly what has happend.
It's surprising to me that so many people still want everything locked down and everyone quarantined.
The numbers don't support it .. not even close.
Cases and deaths.

At this point it's beyond ridiculous to not open everything back up to normal operation.


Did you not read my answer to him about what was infuriating about it?

I agree with pretty much everything you posted.
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Seven Costanza
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1:14p, 5/7/20
AG
Part of it is an effort to play it down the middle and appease both sides. If you stay in lockdown, the open it up people will raise hell. If you open it up, the lockdown people will raise hell. If the numbers in your constituency are large enough on either side, you try to play it up the middle, so you say "okay, we're opening up, but safely and slowly". It's politics.
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Aggies2009
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In reply to Seven Costanza • 1:16p, 5/7/20
AG
Seven Costanza said:
Part of it is an effort to play it down the middle and appease both sides. If you stay in lockdown, the open it up people will raise hell. If you open it up, the lockdown people will raise hell. If the numbers in your constituency are large enough on either side, you try to play it up the middle, so you say "okay, we're opening up, but safely and slowly". It's politics.
That shouldn't be how it is, though. Just to appease some people, you can't infringe on the rights and freedoms of everyone else. Every time there is a shooting, people immediately clamor for guns to be taken out of our hands, but that's not really constitutional.
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Seven Costanza
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In reply to Aggies2009 • 1:23p, 5/7/20
AG
I don't disagree.
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Capitol Ag
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In reply to SkiMo • 1:25p, 5/7/20
AG
SkiMo said:
P.U.T.U said:
AggieOO said:
BLB_95 said:
If you are so worried about Texas and our low rates, can you imagine what is happening in the epicenter of New York with things opening up. Look at this pic from May 2nd.... you won't find that in Texas right now.



https://www.welcome2thebronx.com/2020/05/04/social-distancing-enforcement-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-a-tale-of-two-cities-in-nyc/

yes you will. This is from last weekend.


And there is a 100% chance several of those people will be in bodily contact with each other, maybe even at the same time
good thing the coco19 isn't spread through the spermies


That begs the question, if one has a really long...oh, never mind.
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Carnwellag2
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In reply to pants • 1:36p, 5/7/20
pants said:
...governments will not backtrack if the data show signs of a second spike?

Maybe they will backtrack, but I would be very surprised at this point. Case in point: we were all told it would take a week or more to see signs of improvement from shelter-in-place or lockdown, but Texas is moving to phase 2 tomorrow just a week after phase 1 last Friday. It seems like there is no time to observe and react to data trends if they won't wait more than a week.

Talk me off the cynicism edge. It all just seems political and not scientific!
simple - the states that don't want to make it political know we need to reopen in phases at a steady pace to counteract the media who has pushed most of the populace to the brink of fear. Doing it in phases will help alleviate that fear.
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Get Off My Lawn
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2:07p, 5/7/20
Shut downs should have been local from the get-go. Why should San Angelo shut down barber shops when the virus isn't known to be within 100 miles? How do you "flatten a curve" if you're already at 0? How do you achieve herd immunity by preventing healthy people from getting it?

Covid parties are probably a bit rash - but the concept of building herd immunity among those of us for which it poses almost no risk has always been the only viable strategy.
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Sq 17
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In reply to pants • 2:27p, 5/7/20
pants said:
Talk me off the cynicism edge. It all just seems political and not scientific!

The flatten the curve coincided the spring break in most parts of the country, without discussing it in public the decision was made sending kids back was to risky. The SIPs had to be long enough to prevent schools from starting back up. Even in "no SIP" states in person school were mostly cancelled.
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to GAC06 • 4:19p, 5/7/20
GAC06 said:
The "lockdown" was largely political and not scientific, so at least its consistent
Political in that democratic and republican leaders across America, and leaders in South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia - all banded together to make the same political decisions around the world? Strange political movement.
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