Sars Cov-2 positive rates in elective procedure patients........

9,398 Views | 62 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by permabull
Marcus Aurelius
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Good ? Haven't seen any. Others may have info. Hard to prove that however.
KidDoc
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Marcus Aurelius said:

Good ? Haven't seen any. Others may have info. Hard to prove that however.
The only way I can think of to prove a false positive is to repeat the test within a very short time frame. If it is negative a day or two later probably a false positive.
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Reveille
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This is very surprising! Here in Garland I have been doing antibody testing for 2 weeks now. I have a lot of people coming in every day thinking they have already had Covid-19. I have not had a single surprise result yet and I am using the Abbott labs IgG with a specificity of 99.5%. Lot of disappointed people for sure.

So I have been disappointed as I was hoping to find more people who were immune. It's really good you are seeing such huge numbers maybe mine will start picking up soon. The only antibody tests we have had positive were people I already treated for Covid-19 previously.
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KidDoc
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Reveille said:

This is very surprising! Here in Garland I have been doing antibody testing for 2 weeks now. I have a lot of people coming in every day thinking they have already had Covid-19. I have not had a single surprise result yet and I am using the Abbott labs IgG with a specificity of 99.5%. Lot of disappointed people for sure.

So I have been disappointed as I was hoping to find more people who were immune. It's really good you are seeing such huge numbers maybe mine will start picking up soon. The only antibody tests we have had positive were people I already treated for Covid-19 previously.
I ordered a titer (IgG) on a 6 month old today whose dad had it in March. I'm really interested to see this result.
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Reveille
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KidDoc said:

Reveille said:

This is very surprising! Here in Garland I have been doing antibody testing for 2 weeks now. I have a lot of people coming in every day thinking they have already had Covid-19. I have not had a single surprise result yet and I am using the Abbott labs IgG with a specificity of 99.5%. Lot of disappointed people for sure.

So I have been disappointed as I was hoping to find more people who were immune. It's really good you are seeing such huge numbers maybe mine will start picking up soon. The only antibody tests we have had positive were people I already treated for Covid-19 previously.
I ordered a titer (IgG) on a 6 month old today whose dad had it in March. I'm really interested to see this result.
Yeah that will be interesting in for sure.
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Charpie
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My best girl friend is needing a CT scan (DFW area.). They won't give it to her until she takes a covid test. I think it's a great idea
Belton Ag
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KidDoc said:

Marcus Aurelius said:

Thought I'd share this. Although at my hospital we are 4 days into elective procedures. All elective procedure patients are required to have the virus nasal swab. Turnaround time is 45 min. So far, in these asymptomatic patients, approximately 11% have been positive. Take it FWIW, but I found it fairly surprising. Not a very hard hit area. Higher than I expected.
That is very interesting. We are starting the same thing in Aggieland it will be interesting.

Don't forget that herd immunity is still an assumption. We have no idea if it exists although I think it does for at least a year or two.


When did this start in Aggieland?
Duncan Idaho
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Ol_Ag_02 said:

Duncan Idaho said:

Not what I wanted to hear but what I expected. I am the young guy on my street on the other side of town. It is 90% retired (average age 70+) and they just dont care or think the are more invincible than their teenage grand kids. They are still having dinner parties, standing face to face with their lawn guy, inviting food delivery guys in the house. Not a **** anywhere to be given.


Maybe it's time for some introspective. Everyone around you, even with an exponentially higher chance of dying from Covid, isn't afraid to live their life.

Living in fear, isn't living.


So just to be clear, you think old people, including those with multiple comorbidities should be acting like there is nothing going on?

plain_o_llama
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Marcus,

Any chance this is the other side of the coin for your patient that can't clear the virus as far the PCR tests says? I know this is a fringe idea. We think of people as infected or not. OTOH, with some viruses we acknowledge a difference between infection and disease. Perhaps there is an unappreciated way for respiratory viruses to occasionally maintain a foothold that is sub-disease but not readily cleared. Might help explain seasonality.

We rarely test asymptomatic patients so I guess we might have missed such things.

Asymptomatic Summertime Shedding of Respiratory Viruses.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29300926

Marcus Aurelius
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That is a great point. Yes. We don't know the chronicity of the state of "infection" of these patients. So - some of these patients may be carrying inactive virus around for weeks after an asymptomatic initial inoculation. Similar to my elderly ICU patient, but who was very symptomatic obviously. Who tested positive again for the 9th time today BTW.
AggieFactor
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Question from a simpleton. If you could determine if a patient was shedding an inactive virus, wouldn't we want them out in public? Aren't most vaccines inactive viruses?
Marcus Aurelius
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Yes. If being the key word. Scientifically don't know if that's possible. Ranger or InfectionAg might be able to answer that better than me.
Ragoo
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Lester Freamon said:

11% among folks with no symptoms in a relatively non hard hit area is huge actually.
this is what jumped out to me. Could be a bigger set of the population who has already been exposed without symptoms than we could possibly know.
KidDoc
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Belton Ag said:

KidDoc said:

Marcus Aurelius said:

Thought I'd share this. Although at my hospital we are 4 days into elective procedures. All elective procedure patients are required to have the virus nasal swab. Turnaround time is 45 min. So far, in these asymptomatic patients, approximately 11% have been positive. Take it FWIW, but I found it fairly surprising. Not a very hard hit area. Higher than I expected.
That is very interesting. We are starting the same thing in Aggieland it will be interesting.

Don't forget that herd immunity is still an assumption. We have no idea if it exists although I think it does for at least a year or two.


When did this start in Aggieland?
Last week.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Ol_Ag_02
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Duncan Idaho said:

Ol_Ag_02 said:

Duncan Idaho said:

Not what I wanted to hear but what I expected. I am the young guy on my street on the other side of town. It is 90% retired (average age 70+) and they just dont care or think the are more invincible than their teenage grand kids. They are still having dinner parties, standing face to face with their lawn guy, inviting food delivery guys in the house. Not a **** anywhere to be given.


Maybe it's time for some introspective. Everyone around you, even with an exponentially higher chance of dying from Covid, isn't afraid to live their life.

Living in fear, isn't living.


So just to be clear, you think old people, including those with multiple comorbidities should be acting like there is nothing going on?




Just to be clear. I think old people with relatively limited time shouldn't be expected to spend the rest of it cowering in fear in their basements. As a healthy young person, you have a lot to learn from them.
saber69
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I got a pre-admit test today. 72 hours for results. I was told that they don't call you if your are negative. If you test positive, then everybody starts calling you. And, BTW, your procedure is canceled.
Belton Ag
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KidDoc said:

Belton Ag said:

KidDoc said:

Marcus Aurelius said:

Thought I'd share this. Although at my hospital we are 4 days into elective procedures. All elective procedure patients are required to have the virus nasal swab. Turnaround time is 45 min. So far, in these asymptomatic patients, approximately 11% have been positive. Take it FWIW, but I found it fairly surprising. Not a very hard hit area. Higher than I expected.
That is very interesting. We are starting the same thing in Aggieland it will be interesting.

Don't forget that herd immunity is still an assumption. We have no idea if it exists although I think it does for at least a year or two.


When did this start in Aggieland?
Last week.
Thanks, in your opinion could this be an explanation for the spike in cases the last 3 days? We've had 3 straight days of 10+ new cases in BCS after several days of low amounts per day prior.
ClickClackAg31
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Ol_Ag_02 said:

Duncan Idaho said:

Ol_Ag_02 said:

Duncan Idaho said:

Not what I wanted to hear but what I expected. I am the young guy on my street on the other side of town. It is 90% retired (average age 70+) and they just dont care or think the are more invincible than their teenage grand kids. They are still having dinner parties, standing face to face with their lawn guy, inviting food delivery guys in the house. Not a **** anywhere to be given.


Maybe it's time for some introspective. Everyone around you, even with an exponentially higher chance of dying from Covid, isn't afraid to live their life.

Living in fear, isn't living.


So just to be clear, you think old people, including those with multiple comorbidities should be acting like there is nothing going on?




Just to be clear. I think old people with relatively limited time shouldn't be expected to spend the rest of it cowering in fear in their basements. As a healthy young person, you have a lot to learn from them.
Maybe, just maybe, Duncan these seniors who are born from WWII soldiers more often than not and lived through the

Korean War
Cold War
Vietnam War
Kennedy Assassination
MLK Assassination
Bay of Pigs
Cuban Missile Crisis
(and that was just the 1960s-ish)
Civil Rights Era
Challenger Explosion
Persian Gulf War
9/11

etc
etc
etc

Simply just DGAF.

Our mentor couple for our community group is 75. When all this was hitting (prior to the SiP being implemented) and our group was wondering if we should still meet in person, they were the only ones saying "uh yeah we should."

Instead of calling them dumb or ignorant, maybe their is some wisdom to learn there. What paradigm of life do they have that I don't? Why are the people most at risk still going about their lives with no fear?

I've asked myself those same questions...seems like a much better way to live.
permabull
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Enrico Pallazzo
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My 79 year old dad is one of those olds that's been somewhat cautious but still living his life. He does a lot of woodwork so he's at Home Depot and Lowes all the time. From his view, a virus that takes him out now could be a blessing in disguise that spares him those years of wasting away in assisted living. This is a 79 year old dude that rides his Peloton daily. But he'd much rather go fast than gradually lose it all.
KidDoc
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Belton Ag said:

KidDoc said:

Belton Ag said:

KidDoc said:

Marcus Aurelius said:

Thought I'd share this. Although at my hospital we are 4 days into elective procedures. All elective procedure patients are required to have the virus nasal swab. Turnaround time is 45 min. So far, in these asymptomatic patients, approximately 11% have been positive. Take it FWIW, but I found it fairly surprising. Not a very hard hit area. Higher than I expected.
That is very interesting. We are starting the same thing in Aggieland it will be interesting.

Don't forget that herd immunity is still an assumption. We have no idea if it exists although I think it does for at least a year or two.


When did this start in Aggieland?
Last week.
Thanks, in your opinion could this be an explanation for the spike in cases the last 3 days? We've had 3 straight days of 10+ new cases in BCS after several days of low amounts per day prior.
Nope. Those are just new cases. It will continue to spread but the hospital systems are now ready. It is the nature of the bug.

I don't have access to the real data-- like if those new cases daily were PCR vs serology.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Ranger222
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AggieFactor said:

Question from a simpleton. If you could determine if a patient was shedding an inactive virus, wouldn't we want them out in public? Aren't most vaccines inactive viruses?

They are not inactive viruses, or even whole particles. Just remnants left over of the RNA genome that was there that we can still detect via PCR.

For a complete viral particle, you need genome, proteins, capsid + envelope. We are only detecting one out of those four, so we don't know (and I wouldn't suspect that they are) there. Genome alone will not lead to any type of immunity.

The best way I can describe it is like a shipwreck. We can still find pieces of the shipwreck a long time after it occurred, but we are probably not finding the whole ship when we do, only a small percent of what remains. You certainly can't drive or operate the ship with what you recovered. Same with the virus. Only small pieces left over and certainly not enough to make it functional.
oragator
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Have we determined what level iof antibodies are needed to avoid reinfection? Or is any amount considered sufficient? (Assuming immunity after having it).

And yes I realize it's a separate question from the OP.

I would also wonder how many of those 11 percent are eventually symptomatic.
KidDoc
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oragator said:

Have we determined what level iof antibodies are needed to avoid reinfection? Or is any amount considered sufficient? (Assuming immunity after having it).

And yes I realize it's a separate question from the OP.

I would also wonder how many of those 11 percent are eventually symptomatic.

Nobody knows what titer level, if any, will give resistance to reinfection.

Those that are positive will likely be followed to see if they are carriers or pre-symptomatic.
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Gizzards
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Charpie said:

My best girl friend is needing a CT scan (DFW area.). They won't give it to her until she takes a covid test. I think it's a great idea

That's overkill and not being done anywhere I refer my patients. Screening questions and temperature checks are appropriate as well as masking up. Texas Medical Board doesn't even suggest a Covid test is necessary to see patients in the office, and being admitted to the hospital for an unrelated reason does not buy you a test without having some reason to need one. Getting a CT is not an aerosol producing process.
Philip J Fry
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Duncan Idaho said:

Ol_Ag_02 said:

Duncan Idaho said:

Not what I wanted to hear but what I expected. I am the young guy on my street on the other side of town. It is 90% retired (average age 70+) and they just dont care or think the are more invincible than their teenage grand kids. They are still having dinner parties, standing face to face with their lawn guy, inviting food delivery guys in the house. Not a **** anywhere to be given.


Maybe it's time for some introspective. Everyone around you, even with an exponentially higher chance of dying from Covid, isn't afraid to live their life.

Living in fear, isn't living.


So just to be clear, you think old people, including those with multiple comorbidities should be acting like there is nothing going on?




If they choose to, then yes.
bay fan
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S
Ol_Ag_02 said:

Duncan Idaho said:

Ol_Ag_02 said:

Duncan Idaho said:

Not what I wanted to hear but what I expected. I am the young guy on my street on the other side of town. It is 90% retired (average age 70+) and they just dont care or think the are more invincible than their teenage grand kids. They are still having dinner parties, standing face to face with their lawn guy, inviting food delivery guys in the house. Not a **** anywhere to be given.


Maybe it's time for some introspective. Everyone around you, even with an exponentially higher chance of dying from Covid, isn't afraid to live their life.

Living in fear, isn't living.


So just to be clear, you think old people, including those with multiple comorbidities should be acting like there is nothing going on?




Just to be clear. I think old people with relatively limited time shouldn't be expected to spend the rest of it cowering in fear in their basements. As a healthy young person, you have a lot to learn from them.
You seem to assume you speak for all older people. I know an absolute ton who are grateful for those in their community that use masks and social distance so that they can be safe and avoid getting the virus. Just because they don't spit into the wind doesn't mean they are "cowering", it means they have their own opinions that don't mirror yours. It's possible to be prudent and not scared, in fact likely.
Belton Ag
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KidDoc said:

Belton Ag said:

KidDoc said:

Belton Ag said:

KidDoc said:

Marcus Aurelius said:

Thought I'd share this. Although at my hospital we are 4 days into elective procedures. All elective procedure patients are required to have the virus nasal swab. Turnaround time is 45 min. So far, in these asymptomatic patients, approximately 11% have been positive. Take it FWIW, but I found it fairly surprising. Not a very hard hit area. Higher than I expected.
That is very interesting. We are starting the same thing in Aggieland it will be interesting.

Don't forget that herd immunity is still an assumption. We have no idea if it exists although I think it does for at least a year or two.


When did this start in Aggieland?
Last week.
Thanks, in your opinion could this be an explanation for the spike in cases the last 3 days? We've had 3 straight days of 10+ new cases in BCS after several days of low amounts per day prior.
Nope. Those are just new cases. It will continue to spread but the hospital systems are now ready. It is the nature of the bug.

I don't have access to the real data-- like if those new cases daily were PCR vs serology.
Thanks, I guess I was figuring that the spike in known cases might be due to a spike in the number of tests done recently. Then again, the homogeneity in the demographics of the new positives leads me to believe something else is in the mix.
permabull
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