RandyAg98 said:
HERE is a good concise article that discusses Sensitivity, Specificity, PPV and NPV.
I think it is important for people to read this before going out and spending money on antibody testing (ignoring the question of whether immunity to COVID is certain or whether these tests have cross-reactivity with non-novel CV strains). If you are in an area of low disease prevalence, as most of Texas is, the positive predictive value plummets making the test nearly worthless, especially when coupled with questions that are being raised regarding the test, along with with delays from disease onset to testing positive for antibodies on these tests.
To give an example. If the COVID prevalence of Houston was 1% (which is a reasonable estimation), and we trusted the sn,sp of 100%, 99.5% (which I have doubts about the specificity claim), that would mean that the positive predictive value of a positive test would be 0.67 or a 33% false positive rate, which is high enough to render the test useless in that population, especially given that our main concern is to limit the number of false positives with this test due to concern for an increase in riskier behavior in those that believe they are now immune with a positive result.
Unfortunately we just don't have enough evidence yet to recommend this to people. However, if you are dead-set on getting an antibody test, or it will give you some peace of mind, just make sure you at least understand that a positive result does not necessarily mean you ever had COVID (unless your pre-test probability was high due to known exposure history or had travel to a high prevalence area), and you should not presume to have immunity.
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