Texas A&M epidemiologists discuss states covid-19 respinse

3,468 Views | 19 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by HumbleAg04
SVaggie84
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AG
Curious to see what the experts say about this article in The Eagle

https://www.theeagle.com/news/local/texas-a-m-epidemiologist-other-panelists-discuss-states-covid-19-response-outlook/article_5282cc6c-9665-11ea-8442-7720258d9867.html
Fitch
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AG
Source webcast:
fightingfarmer09
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I'm starting to think I could get a PhD in epidemiology by answering "quarantine", "flatten curve", and "in two weeks" on every exam.
SVaggie84
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Someone shared this in response to me saying it's time to open up.

I'm thinking the experts on this board are more optimistic. They seem to be understanding Covid and aren't as worried about it. Of course the elderly need to be cautious.

This article seems much more fearful than what I'm reading here.
Sliver on the East Side
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fightingfarmer09 said:

I'm starting to think I could get a PhD in epidemiology by answering "quarantine", "flatten curve", and "in two weeks" on every exam.


And tenure with "social distancing"
Dad-O-Lot
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Without watching or reading this article: Has anything new been learned or changed which would make us more likely to believe the new predictions of "overwhelming our hospitals" anymore than the previous predictions?

Hays County has 3 people currently hospitalized for Covid-19. 3! We could increase this a hundred-fold and not "overwhelm" the hospitals.
People of integrity expect to be believed, when they're not, they let time prove them right.
coolerguy12
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Dad-O-Lot said:

Without watching or reading this article: Has anything new been learned or changed which would make us more likely to believe the new predictions of "overwhelming our hospitals" anymore than the previous predictions?

Hays County has 3 people currently hospitalized for Covid-19. 3! We could increase this a hundred-fold and not "overwhelm" the hospitals.


Don't waste your time. It's a lot of "ifs and maybes" followed by fear mongering based on worst case models.
GAC06
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Dad-O-Lot said:

Without watching or reading this article: Has anything new been learned or changed which would make us more likely to believe the new predictions of "overwhelming our hospitals" anymore than the previous predictions?

Hays County has 3 people currently hospitalized for Covid-19. 3! We could increase this a hundred-fold and not "overwhelm" the hospitals.


It was never going to overwhelm hospitals in most of the country.
culdeus
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GAC06 said:

Dad-O-Lot said:

Without watching or reading this article: Has anything new been learned or changed which would make us more likely to believe the new predictions of "overwhelming our hospitals" anymore than the previous predictions?

Hays County has 3 people currently hospitalized for Covid-19. 3! We could increase this a hundred-fold and not "overwhelm" the hospitals.


It was never going to overwhelm hospitals in most of the country.


To be fair, in the beginning it looked like the case hospital rate was looking to be quite high. And the hospital duration rate was also quite high. Nobody factored that we would send many home or discharge them as quickly as we did.
culdeus
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GAC06 said:

Dad-O-Lot said:

Without watching or reading this article: Has anything new been learned or changed which would make us more likely to believe the new predictions of "overwhelming our hospitals" anymore than the previous predictions?

Hays County has 3 people currently hospitalized for Covid-19. 3! We could increase this a hundred-fold and not "overwhelm" the hospitals.


It was never going to overwhelm hospitals in most of the country.


To be fair, in the beginning it looked like the case hospital rate was looking to be quite high. And the hospital duration rate was also quite high. Nobody factored that we would send many home or discharge them as quickly as we did.
Jerkin_my_durkin
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I think next to hotez it was suppose to say NAMBLA not NAM
peachbasket
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We are fortunate to have Peter Hotez join our faculty as a Hagler fellow. He is correct, we are where we are because of social distancing. If we totally abandon it in reopening, we could see hospital overcrowding again before fall. We can't BTHO Covid-19 by being stupid and irresponsible!
FlyRod
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^This. Very proud of TAMU's investment in health sciences.
Fitch
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I gotta say, I'm a little disappointed in the responses here. The article and webcast were specifically focused on Texas with experts from the two flagship schools and Texas Medical Center. I found it really informative.
Callate Donnie
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If you come to TexAgs looking for reasoned and measured responses then you're always going to be disappointed.
DCAggie13y
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peachbasket said:

We are fortunate to have Peter Hotez join our faculty as a Hagler fellow. He is correct, we are where we are because of social distancing. If we totally abandon it in reopening, we could see hospital overcrowding again before fall. We can't BTHO Covid-19 by being stupid and irresponsible!


Was there any hospital overcrowding in the US? Even in NYC, the surge hospital capacity went unused.
Keegan99
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peachbasket said:

We are fortunate to have Peter Hotez join our faculty as a Hagler fellow. He is correct, we are where we are because of social distancing. If we totally abandon it in reopening, we could see hospital overcrowding again before fall. We can't BTHO Covid-19 by being stupid and irresponsible!


Hospital overcrowding again?

When did we have hospital overcrowding?

Harris County spent millions on a surge hospital set up in the Astrodome parking lot. It was never used by a single patient.
BiochemAg97
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coolerguy12 said:

Quote:

If we really relaxed to where transmission rebounds at about half of baseline, we would expect to see an unmanageable surge in hospitalizations. By mid-June, we would have hospitalizations that far exceed our optimistic capacity,


This sounds like it was pulled from an article in March when everyone actually still believed the fear mongering. It's not going to work this time around. Even this board is starting to see the light.
The modeling in the article of splitting the difference between precovid and post lockdown completely ignores the effect of social distancing and/or mask use.

Precovid mobility was going to places that were fully of people and no 6 ft separation. Post covid, a six feet separation radically changes the disease spread even if people are out and about.
Capitol Ag
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Callate Donnie said:

If you come to TexAgs looking for reasoned and measured responses then you're always going to be disappointed.


Healthy skepticism isn't a bad thing. I think these medical experts need to be questioned and be prepared to deal with that skepticism. These are unprecedented times and given what level our governments, healthcare professionals and others have asked the average American to do by putting much of their life on hold and the economy as well, especially in light of what we currently are seeing, I think is very reasonable to at least question what strategies we take as a city, county, state and nation going forward. They could be 100% correct, but they also may not be at all. And at what point do we actually have enough of a handle on the situation that getting back to regular life is fine? Just b/c one doctor isn't comfortable with that doesn't mean there aren't other very qualified doctors and medical experts who would be and even propose as such. The American people have every right to question all of this. The fact that many on this forum are is the very definition of healthy and some who still think this virus will get out of hand when we open up need to remember that it's just their opinion and should welcome varying thoughts and idea as well.

I'll go further to state that there are a lot of greater issues at stake here than just this virus. Freedoms are very much an issue as well and who gets to decide how our freedoms are dispensed and even if they should be afforded that level or authority as well. Maybe this is serious enough to do that. But what if it's not? And what are the limits to it. There has to be limits eventually. That's why the framers of our Constitution put in a system of checks and balances. Maybe we are nowhere near a point where freedom is in danger, but that's why skepticism is vital. It's when the loss of freedom sneaks up on a people that things go wrong, not when people are aware and questioning our leadership and their motivations and directions.
citizenkane06
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This is true, but too many confuse outright denial with skepticism.
HumbleAg04
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The only penalty in their opinion is they downplay it and people die. Why wouldn't they be overly cautious and fear mongering? There are no consequences to them for it. Being wrong the other way however....
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