The latest in COVID development
The WHO is now tracking 118 vaccine candidates as of last Friday, up from 108 on May 8thand 70 a month ago. Eight of these are now in clinical development, which beyond Moderna's '1273 include 4 in China (three inactivated, one adenovirus), AstraZeneca/ Oxford's ChAdOx1 (adenovirus), Pfizer/BioNTech's BNT162 (RNA) and Inovio's INO-4800 (DNA)many which should have updates over the coming weeks (with growing expectations for BNT162 given Moderna's data).
We similarly look for the pace of read- outs from antivirals to rapidly expand, with updates expected for remdesivir and HCQ as well as several anti-inflammatories (Actemra, Kevzara, Gilenya, Olumiant, etc.) near-term. And with several players (JNJ, Regeneron, Lilly, Vir) set to initiate their respective vaccine and antibody programs starting over the next few months through to fall, updates should continue apace throughout the end of the year.
Highlights from the COVID-19 Market Model update
We currently project the total COVID-19 market (including antivirals, antibodies, immunosuppressants, and vaccines) as totaling $68B at peak, primarily driven by vaccines (75% of the total market), with neutralizing antibodies contributing $12B (17%).
Within the vaccine market, we project a price per dose of $36 (which assumes the vaccine is purchased at a discount by the government) across the board, with vaccines first coming to market in 2021 and broad utilization across the globe by 2025.
We've raised our peak revenue / share assumptions for mRNA-1273 to $7.2B/25% in 2023 from $4B/15% previously. We've also raised our peak share for the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines to 15% in the US (from 10%) and 20% in the EU (from 15%), respectively.
This gives us a total vaccine penetration of 35- 40% in eligible patients across the globe in 2023 (with close to saturation by 2027). As vaccine availability ramps (in what we expect to be a linear fashion due to supply constraints) we project a deceleration in patients treated with antivirals and neutralizing antibodies beginning in 2021; however we still see remdesivir garnering close to $2.5B in peak sales, with Regeneron's and Lilly's neutralizing antibodies achieving significantly higher peak sales potential (at $3.0B and $2.2B, respectively
On the back of Moderna's positive phase 1 data ('1273) that was moderately derisking going into phase 2, we outline our evolving view on the COVID-19 marketplace.
As clinical data is beginning to reveal differences between vaccine candidates, we are shifting our prior analysis from relatively equal weighting between the vaccines in our model to higher share for Moderna and, to a lesser extent, the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford vaccines (share details below).
Despite these changes, we view the debate of which company will "win" or "lose" in COVID-19 development as inaccurate there will undoubtedly be room for not only multiple vaccines to serve a global population, but also for acute therapies (anti-virals, neutralizing antibodies) to coexist with vaccines in the treatment paradigm. Therefore, our view regarding Gilead (remdesivir) and Regeneron/Lilly/Amgen (neutralizing antibodies) remains unchanged, with our model already accounting for a deceleration in use post-2021 assuming a vaccine is approved.
The WHO is now tracking 118 vaccine candidates as of last Friday, up from 108 on May 8thand 70 a month ago. Eight of these are now in clinical development, which beyond Moderna's '1273 include 4 in China (three inactivated, one adenovirus), AstraZeneca/ Oxford's ChAdOx1 (adenovirus), Pfizer/BioNTech's BNT162 (RNA) and Inovio's INO-4800 (DNA)many which should have updates over the coming weeks (with growing expectations for BNT162 given Moderna's data).
We similarly look for the pace of read- outs from antivirals to rapidly expand, with updates expected for remdesivir and HCQ as well as several anti-inflammatories (Actemra, Kevzara, Gilenya, Olumiant, etc.) near-term. And with several players (JNJ, Regeneron, Lilly, Vir) set to initiate their respective vaccine and antibody programs starting over the next few months through to fall, updates should continue apace throughout the end of the year.
Highlights from the COVID-19 Market Model update
We currently project the total COVID-19 market (including antivirals, antibodies, immunosuppressants, and vaccines) as totaling $68B at peak, primarily driven by vaccines (75% of the total market), with neutralizing antibodies contributing $12B (17%).
Within the vaccine market, we project a price per dose of $36 (which assumes the vaccine is purchased at a discount by the government) across the board, with vaccines first coming to market in 2021 and broad utilization across the globe by 2025.
We've raised our peak revenue / share assumptions for mRNA-1273 to $7.2B/25% in 2023 from $4B/15% previously. We've also raised our peak share for the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines to 15% in the US (from 10%) and 20% in the EU (from 15%), respectively.
This gives us a total vaccine penetration of 35- 40% in eligible patients across the globe in 2023 (with close to saturation by 2027). As vaccine availability ramps (in what we expect to be a linear fashion due to supply constraints) we project a deceleration in patients treated with antivirals and neutralizing antibodies beginning in 2021; however we still see remdesivir garnering close to $2.5B in peak sales, with Regeneron's and Lilly's neutralizing antibodies achieving significantly higher peak sales potential (at $3.0B and $2.2B, respectively
On the back of Moderna's positive phase 1 data ('1273) that was moderately derisking going into phase 2, we outline our evolving view on the COVID-19 marketplace.
As clinical data is beginning to reveal differences between vaccine candidates, we are shifting our prior analysis from relatively equal weighting between the vaccines in our model to higher share for Moderna and, to a lesser extent, the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford vaccines (share details below).
Despite these changes, we view the debate of which company will "win" or "lose" in COVID-19 development as inaccurate there will undoubtedly be room for not only multiple vaccines to serve a global population, but also for acute therapies (anti-virals, neutralizing antibodies) to coexist with vaccines in the treatment paradigm. Therefore, our view regarding Gilead (remdesivir) and Regeneron/Lilly/Amgen (neutralizing antibodies) remains unchanged, with our model already accounting for a deceleration in use post-2021 assuming a vaccine is approved.
