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Florida apparently under counting their covid deaths
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Last: 5 yr ago by PJYoung
Quote:
Here is what the article states about national and regional numbers:
"Pneumonia kills about 50,000 people each year in the U.S., according to the CDC.
This year, at least 89,555 deaths have been attributed nationwide to pneumonia between February and mid-May.
It tends to follow a typical flu season, coming on in December and peaking in January and February before declining in March to April.
But preliminary CDC data from this year show pneumonia deaths steadily climbed in March to peak in April, mirroring the trend line for deaths linked to the coronavirus outbreak.
Surrounding states are also seeing death counts several times greater than normal:
Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)
Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)
Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)
Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)
Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)
West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)"
Concerning for sure.
With the hypercoagulable nature of this virus you have to wonder how many fatal strokes/MI could potentially be attributed to COVID.
There was some post I read either here or on f16 that had a relative come up positive for COVID and 3 days later die of a massive stroke. Stroke was put on death certificate iirc.
With the hypercoagulable nature of this virus you have to wonder how many fatal strokes/MI could potentially be attributed to COVID.
There was some post I read either here or on f16 that had a relative come up positive for COVID and 3 days later die of a massive stroke. Stroke was put on death certificate iirc.
And hospitals are over reporting, but that's not covered
Although appears partially true especially Florida. Some of the numbers are disingenuous. Several of the states have been marked both COVID and pneumonia if you look at CDC chart, so this does account for some discrepancy though definitely not all of a state like Florida.
How many people with easily treated pneumonia are not going to the hospital?
I'm sorry your virus isn't getting all the points on the board.
This is going to be the new narrative. States with Republican governors that have far fewer deaths per capita are under-reporting. Georgia, Texas, Florida all under-reporting and fudging their numbers. Get ready for a bunch of NYT and Washington Post exposes.
CDC stats by state comparing overall expected deaths to actual deaths from Feb 1, 2020 to today.
Some Highlights:
Some Highlights:
- NYC: 227%
- New Jersey: 143%
- New York (excluding NYC): 125%
- Florida: 97%
- Texas: 94%
- Georgia: 91%
I don't think its a cover-up but more like what is being put on the death certificate for ease.
I have heard that putting down COVID as cause of death opens a can of worms for a lot of people (doctors, staff, family and others) and they don't want to deal with it so much easier to put something else. Doesn't have to be a conspiracy from a higher level but does mean its being undercounted in "official" numbers.
I have heard that putting down COVID as cause of death opens a can of worms for a lot of people (doctors, staff, family and others) and they don't want to deal with it so much easier to put something else. Doesn't have to be a conspiracy from a higher level but does mean its being undercounted in "official" numbers.
The entire argument seems pretty debatable, everyone I know who has had a mild fever in the past 3 months have been tested for Covid (multiple times), including myself. I would attribute these to people not getting care soon enough, which is why healthcare providers like Baylor Scott & White are laying off 1200 people.
The doomers on the reddit texas board brought the same bull**** for our state and it was show it was in fact bull*****
Since their end of the world predictions aren't coming true they have to find a way to spin this with states opening up successfully. Reddit is the epicenter of these doomers.
https://www.reddit.com/r/texas/comments/gr0kuf/abbott_today_texas_had_the_fewest_covid19/
Since their end of the world predictions aren't coming true they have to find a way to spin this with states opening up successfully. Reddit is the epicenter of these doomers.
https://www.reddit.com/r/texas/comments/gr0kuf/abbott_today_texas_had_the_fewest_covid19/
Quote:This data is based on hospital reports. Many people die of pneumonia but do not die in the hospital and the cause of death is submitted by a coroner or another party, not the hospital. It also does not include hospitals that submitted less than 30 deaths due to pneumonia. More so, putting pneumonia deaths under a full calendar year is dumb. Pneumonia deaths are seasonal (attached to the flu) and start around the 40th week of the year.Quote:
In 2016, 1,437 people died of pneumonia in tx. https://www.dshs.texas.gov/thcic/publications/hospitals/IQIReport/2016/20-Pneumonia-Mortality-Rate.pdf
This data is SEVERELY under reported. Weird that you used the CDC website for the current data, but went to some random, unrelated government report for your 2016 (???) data.
Thankfully, the actual data is readily available.Nice! You actually used a primary source of data, rather than some specific report that was being used to track hospitals, not deaths.Quote:
Since Feb 1, 2020, 4,600+ people have died from pneumonia in tx. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
You're right about there being 4600 deaths in that time frame, but let's dig into that data a bit deeper. We can do that using this webpage from the CDC:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
Using the data from this webpage, we can see that the 2019-2020 flu season has resulted in 8880 pneumonia deaths so far. Since we are only 32 weeks into this season, let's extrapolate that number a bit, shall we? With another 20 weeks to go, or about 38% remaining, we can extrapolate that 8880 number to 12300 deaths. Sheesh, that's pretty high. I mean... look back at that 2016 number you posted! Only 1400 people died in 2016 from pneumonia! Woweeee...
Oh wait, no, during the 2016-2017 season, 13009 people died in Texas due to pneumonia. In the 2015-2016 season there were 13333 deaths in Texas due to pneumonia.
But **** those numbers, that's 3-4 years ago! Let's see how we're doing more recently. Yeah, surely those numbers will confirm my narrative that Abbott is lying about COVID-19 deaths!
2016-2017 : 13009 deaths
2017-2018 : 13893 deaths
2018-2019 : 12969 deaths
See? That's proof Abbott is lyi- wait... what? Those numbers are completely in line with what Texas is poised to report for the 2019-2020 season? It... it... can't be! No! Rachel Maddow assured me that was impossible!
In conclusion, the top comment is yet again made up bull**** with cherry picked data that confirms this week's lefty narrative of choice.
Where's my gold?
probably evens out with the over reporting such as deaths by gunshot being classified as covidPJYoung said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/gqypwx/kentucky_has_had_913_more_pneumonia_deaths_than/
perhaps it evens out with the over counting cases (such as those that die by gunshot counted as a covid death)PJYoung said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/gqypwx/kentucky_has_had_913_more_pneumonia_deaths_than/
Im convinced its misleading to show simple stats re: Covid. Every hospitalization & death count should include a breakdown of age and comorbidities...in the spirit of truth in labelling to allow the public to make informed decisions about their lives and how to apply their consent toward community support.
dragmagpuff said:
CDC stats by state comparing overall expected deaths to actual deaths from Feb 1, 2020 to today.
Some Highlights:
- NYC: 227%
- New Jersey: 143%
- New York (excluding NYC): 125%
- Florida: 97%
- Texas: 94%
- Georgia: 91%
I'm not opining on the trend here vs. COVID, but just to acknowledge it appears to be standard operating practice for fatality figures to be revised up to several months after the fact given months-long lags in reporting.
There was a handy graphic floating around here a few weeks back that illustrated the dynamic pretty well... I don't know if that applies in this case, but it does act as a decent reminder the data are always subject to change...
Politics aside, Georgia and Florida are doing some things that appear shady which doesn't help their case.Gumby said:
This is going to be the new narrative. States with Republican governors that have far fewer deaths per capita are under-reporting. Georgia, Texas, Florida all under-reporting and fudging their numbers. Get ready for a bunch of NYT and Washington Post exposes.
Georgia put out a graph that just happened to create a downward trendline that also happened to not be ordered chronologically, Florida just fired the woman in charge of their data, etc.
So what your saying is COVID actually reduced deaths in Fl, TX, and GA. Given everyone else wants to use excess deaths as a measure of how underreported COVID is, does this suggest we have had negative COVID deaths and COVID brought people back to life?dragmagpuff said:
CDC stats by state comparing overall expected deaths to actual deaths from Feb 1, 2020 to today.
Some Highlights:
- NYC: 227%
- New Jersey: 143%
- New York (excluding NYC): 125%
- Florida: 97%
- Texas: 94%
- Georgia: 91%
This absurdity is actually meant to illustrate a point. Deaths can be from a variety of causes. Rather than COVID bringing people back to life, it is far more likely that less driving contributed to less traffic fatalities and thus lower deaths in some states with relatively mild COVID infections. The same logic can be applied when we look at excess deaths in a subset of causes. Pneumonia has many causes other than COVID. While it is possible that some of those that died of pneumonia had and died from COVID, all excess pneumonia deaths can not necessarily be attributed to COVID. As has been stated, people developing pneumonia may not seek timely treatment because of COVID fear.
On the other hand, gunshot wounds and alcohol poisoning are not caused by COVID.
More importantly, what is the significance of the count being off in one direction or another. We should be deciding policy based on trends and consistency in measuring cause of death is important to understanding trends. If one day we are undercounting because we missed some pneumonia deaths by the next day we are over counting because we included all pneumonia deaths then there is a discontinuity in the data where it jumps because we changed the counting methodology, Or, as another example, if one day we are counting everyone who died who tested positive for COVID (including car accidents, GSWs, and alcohol poisoning) and then start counting those who COVID was the cause of death, there is a downward discontinuity that makes spotting trends harder.
I think in general, throughout this, people really don't understand just how many die each day in American. A country of 329 million people. 2.8 million a year. 233k a month. 7600+ a day.
What I'd really like to see is our death total now versus our death total on May 28th of last year, and the year before, etc. It might be slightly off because of less people being out, auto accidents, other accidents, etc. Or it might be slightly increased due to fear of getting routine check ups, or going to the hospital for other reasons that people should be.
But I bet in general, our death rate will end up relatively steady compared to previous years. at the end of the day, people will die in large amounts if we follow this daily. I have a feeling some would be stunned to find out that 233k Americans might die this month. We need to be living life while staying under the medical capacity. I think in most of the country, we are going to do that with flying colors almost regardless of what we do, but especially with even just a few extra measures. .
What I'd really like to see is our death total now versus our death total on May 28th of last year, and the year before, etc. It might be slightly off because of less people being out, auto accidents, other accidents, etc. Or it might be slightly increased due to fear of getting routine check ups, or going to the hospital for other reasons that people should be.
But I bet in general, our death rate will end up relatively steady compared to previous years. at the end of the day, people will die in large amounts if we follow this daily. I have a feeling some would be stunned to find out that 233k Americans might die this month. We need to be living life while staying under the medical capacity. I think in most of the country, we are going to do that with flying colors almost regardless of what we do, but especially with even just a few extra measures. .
Quote:
She said the state made changes in April to support its initial reopening May 4, for example by altering the way it reports the positivity rate of testing in a way she disagreed with. Instead of showing the rate of all positive tests, it began showing the rate of new positive tests filtering out people who previously tested positive.
Let's just calm down here a second. Florida told her to remove retests of prior positives (those getting a test once they've passed the symptomatic periods) and she was insubordinate to do that.
Per the NCHS, Q1 2019 had a total death rate of 920.3 per 100k and Q2 had a rate of 836.7. If you use 330M as our 2019 population, Q1 was 759k and Q2 was 690k. Puts Jan-June 2019 at 1.45M. We will know in a month or so.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/mortality-dashboard.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/mortality-dashboard.htm
Not judging it either way, just noting that events like that don't help the air of transparency. There weren't any details available last time I read about it so thanks for the info, while with most things like that I'd there's some truth on both sides it's not fair to assume bad intentions without further proof.
beerad12man said:
I think in general, throughout this, people really don't understand just how many die each day in American. A country of 329 million people. 2.8 million a year. 233k a month. 7600+ a day.
What I'd really like to see is our death total now versus our death total on May 28th of last year, and the year before, etc. It might be slightly off because of less people being out, auto accidents, other accidents, etc. Or it might be slightly increased due to fear of getting routine check ups, or going to the hospital for other reasons that people should be.
But I bet in general, our death rate will end up relatively steady compared to previous years. at the end of the day, people will die in large amounts if we follow this daily. I have a feeling some would be stunned to find out that 233k Americans might die this month. We need to be living life while staying under the medical capacity. I think in most of the country, we are going to do that with flying colors almost regardless of what we do, but especially with even just a few extra measures. .
The excess death rate over previous years is being reported al over the place.
You can drill into the data some here:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
fig96 said:Politics aside, Georgia and Florida are doing some things that appear shady which doesn't help their case.Gumby said:
This is going to be the new narrative. States with Republican governors that have far fewer deaths per capita are under-reporting. Georgia, Texas, Florida all under-reporting and fudging their numbers. Get ready for a bunch of NYT and Washington Post exposes.
Georgia put out a graph that just happened to create a downward trendline that also happened to not be ordered chronologically, Florida just fired the woman in charge of their data, etc.
Florida was right to fire her. Also Google her name and you will learn that she has a sordid past that makes me skeptical about her integrity.
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/05/24/public-remarks-prompted-florida-virus-data-curators-rebekah-jones-firing/5252931002/
She also said that Florida's data was accurate and she had no evidence it was being manipulated.
You would be wrong on your bet nationally, although probably right if you focused on Texas alone.beerad12man said:
I think in general, throughout this, people really don't understand just how many die each day in American. A country of 329 million people. 2.8 million a year. 233k a month. 7600+ a day.
What I'd really like to see is our death total now versus our death total on May 28th of last year, and the year before, etc. It might be slightly off because of less people being out, auto accidents, other accidents, etc. Or it might be slightly increased due to fear of getting routine check ups, or going to the hospital for other reasons that people should be.
But I bet in general, our death rate will end up relatively steady compared to previous years. at the end of the day, people will die in large amounts if we follow this daily. I have a feeling some would be stunned to find out that 233k Americans might die this month. We need to be living life while staying under the medical capacity. I think in most of the country, we are going to do that with flying colors almost regardless of what we do, but especially with even just a few extra measures. .
The less hard hit states like Texas haven't shown the same spike, predictably.
Note that the all-cause death isn't available to today, most of the end dates of the data sets are in April still.
Yes, a quick spike over the last 4 months. That's obvious.
Over a couple of years? Get back with me. This is just taking out many 6-24 months ahead of their time. Sad, but not worth shutting the world down for any longer.
And I'm not saying the number won't be any higher. But relatively speaking, I don't it is going to be high enough to warrant the destruction. Even if you factor in taking no government actions. JMO. Many won't agree.
Over a couple of years? Get back with me. This is just taking out many 6-24 months ahead of their time. Sad, but not worth shutting the world down for any longer.
And I'm not saying the number won't be any higher. But relatively speaking, I don't it is going to be high enough to warrant the destruction. Even if you factor in taking no government actions. JMO. Many won't agree.
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