WHO says: Asymptomatic coronavirus patients aren't spreading new infections

7,864 Views | 67 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by 94chem
Stymied
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html



Not sure if I believe it but it is big news if true.
RVAg02
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
If true, then I guess the definition of asymptomatic matters. If not, then how the hell are so many people still getting it?
DTP02
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
This would be consistent with the indications that minors aren't effective spreaders, as they tend to be more asymptomatic.

This would be huge news for society reopening. A lot of the safeguards we seem to want to put in place could be lessened or done away with.

If this can be established with greater certainty than maybe that will be enough to have school and college administrators look at a more traditional school model instead of all the irrational measures which they are still talking about implementing.
HotardAg07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
From what I have read, the general public and doctors have different definitions of asymptomatic. That is, a person may have a mild fever and not realize it or might have something they dismiss for other reasons that later turn out to have been COVID. Those people, medically, are still symptomatic.

This also seems to be making the distinction between asymptomatic patients and pre-symptomatic patients.
amercer
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Seems logical. Hopefully as we gather more and more information about this virus, more of the really weird stuff about it will be dispelled as being bad info from the early panic.
DTP02
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I wonder about the difference between asymptomatic and presymptomatic. Are they differentiating at all between the people who stayed asymptomatic and people who are asymptomatic at the time of contact but who later develop symptoms (i.e. presymptomatic)?

As a layperson, it makes sense to me that presymptomatic people are more likely to transmit than asymptomatic people.
aggiegolfer03
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Same reliable source who earlier this year said no human-human transmission at all, right?
AggieSarah01
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Then can we please get rid of at least some of the sillier mask requirements then, please?
flyingaggie12
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Mask work, i.e Japan.
cone
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
what if the symptoms are so mild as to be confused with allergies?

is that asymptomatic?

this sort of bull**** is going to make people LESS likely to mask up in places that likely warrant it. it's ridiculous.

the public health academy is a disgrace.
Carnwellag2
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Is anyone actually able to keep track anymore with all the flip flopping


10% death rate .... 0.1% death rate
Masks bad...now masks good
HCQ bad now good
Everyone spreads...only symptomatic spreads.

And on and on
KidDoc
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
flyingaggie12 said:

Mask work, i.e Japan.
Or maybe they aren't necessary i.e. New Zealand and Australia.

See how correlation does not always mean causation?

--

For OP this is a good study looking at case contact tracing and following over time. They are PROVING that these asymptomatic patients that they are tracing due to a contact do not seem to spread to any other people that they have contact with. This is HUGE NEWS if it holds up over time. Of course the current thinking is you start to spread 24-48 hours before it REALLY hits you. So those body aches, headache, mild sore throat and fever may be the start of your contagious period.

Those people are not really asymptomatic at that point though, they just are in the "prodrome" period where you know something isn't right but not really sure yet. These are the likely problem people who still try to go to work and maintain normal life while still feeling mostly well.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
cone
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
still doesn't make sense given the size of the outbreak in NYC

if it's not asymptomatic spread then it's got to be super spreaders

I don't think the math works out
cone
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
how do you reconcile the meat packing plants?

or the nursing homes?

this doesn't make sense at all
terradactylexpress
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Carnwellag2 said:

Is anyone actually able to keep track anymore with all the flip flopping


HCQ bad now good

This one isn't true
KidDoc
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
cone said:

how do you reconcile the meat packing plants?

or the nursing homes?

this doesn't make sense at all
Because there is a LONG history of "toughing it out" and coming to work when not feeling well. Or they think they are hung over when it is actually the prodrome period.

The other factor with the WHO study is these contacts they are tracing may be self-isolating well and that contributes to the "very rare" asymptomatic spreaders. These people KNOW they are positive. Hard to know if people who don't know they are positive are being careful.

No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Duncan Idaho
How long do you want to ignore this user?
HotardAg07 said:

From what I have read, the general public and doctors have different definitions of asymptomatic. That is, a person may have a mild fever and not realize it or might have something they dismiss for other reasons that later turn out to have been COVID. Those people, medically, are still symptomatic.

This also seems to be making the distinction between asymptomatic patients and pre-symptomatic patients.


Yeah I hope this is true but it seems so rife for misinterpretation that it will just further diminish the credibility of WHO.

Think about how big the gap between professional and layman's vernacular for the word "theory" is. Now imagine how misunderstood the clinical use of "asymptomatic"/"presymptomatic". Remember way back a few months ago when people didnt understand that the line for "Mild" was not needing hospitalization.

This seems as poorly communicated as the "lack of immunity " statement 6 or so weeks ago.
Duncan Idaho
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AggieSarah01 said:

Then can we please get rid of at least some of the sillier mask requirements then, please?

Case in point
cone
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
yeah, still not buying it with regard to the nursing homes

the overall math doesn't work for epidemics in Italy and NYC

unless the super spreader phenomenon almost drives the whole thing

how on earth can you get a R0 estimate upwards of 6 without spread from people who don't have current symptoms?
cone
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
so the WHO is saying asymptomatic spread isn't a thing and the CDC is saying that surfaces are not the primary vector for spread

so how does 25% of NYC get antibodies within three months, tops?
TCTTS
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Clob94
How long do you want to ignore this user?
At some point if you follow the money, the WHO has an agenda. Maybe they are telling you masks aren't needed so more of you will get sick and more federal money can be distributed out in the name of socialism.
cone
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
the WHO is basically the pope of public health

they seem to just say a lot of things and it's up to you to figure it out
Fitch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
The asymptomatic rate was 1 in 3 per the CDC's best guess. You still have the majority of the population that will incubate for 2-14 days while shedding virus before onset of symptoms.

I guess I'm just missing how this is surprising news given what's been previously stated about viral loading and milder presentations shedding less virus... it isn't exactly a groundbreaking conclusion. Positive if it holds up, nonetheless.
Duncan Idaho
How long do you want to ignore this user?
TCTTS said:




This makes much more sense.
Fitch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
The pertinent text below. Decide for yourself what they're saying...

Quote:

Current evidence suggests that most transmission of COVID-19 is occurring from symptomatic people to others in close contact, when not wearing appropriate PPE. Among symptomatic patients, viral RNA can be detected in samples weeks after the onset of illness, but viable virus was not found after day 8 post onset of symptoms (19, 20) for mild patients, though this may be longer for severely ill patients. Prolonged RNA shedding, however, does not necessarily mean continued infectiousness. Transmissibility of the virus depends on the amount of viable virus being shed by a person, whether or not they are coughing and expelling more droplets, the type of contact they have with others, and what IPC measures are in place. Studies that investigate transmission should be interpreted bearing in mind the context in which they occurred.

There is also the possibility of transmission from people who are infected and shedding virus but have not yet developed symptoms; this is called pre-symptomatic transmission. The incubation period for COVID-19, which is the time between exposure to the virus and symptom onset, is on average 5-6 days, but can be as long as 14 days.(21, 22) Additionally, data suggest that some people can test positive for COVID-19, via polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing 1-3 days before they develop symptoms.(23) Pre-symptomatic transmission is defined as the transmission of the COVID-19 virus from someone infected and shedding virus but who has not yet developed symptoms. People who develop symptoms appear to have higher viral loads on or just prior to the day of symptom onset, relative to later on in their infection.(24)

Some people infected with the COVID-19 virus do not ever develop any symptoms, although they can shed virus which may then be transmitted to others. One recent systematic review found that the proportion of asymptomatic cases ranged from 6% to 41%, with a pooled estimate of 16% (12%20%),(25) although most studies included in this review have important limitations of poor reporting of symptoms, or did not properly define which symptoms they were investigating. Viable virus has been isolated from specimens of pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, suggesting, therefore, that people who do not have symptoms may be able transmit the virus to others.(26) Comprehensive studies on transmission from asymptomatic individuals are difficult to conduct, but the available evidence from contact tracing reported by Member States suggests that asymptomatically-infected individuals are much less likely to transmit the virus than those who develop symptoms.

Among the available published studies, some have described occurrences of transmission from people who did not have symptoms.(21,25-32) For example, among 63 asymptomatically-infected individuals studied in China, there was evidence that 9 (14%) infected another person.(31) Furthermore, among two studies which carefully investigated secondary transmission from cases to contacts, one found no secondary transmission among 91 contacts of 9 asymptomatic cases,(33) while the other reported that 6.4% of cases were attributable to pre-symptomatic transmission.(32) The available data, to date, on onward infection from cases without symptoms comes from a limited number of studies with small samples that are subject to possible recall bias and for which fomite transmission cannot be ruled out.



https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1279750/retrieve
eric76
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
DTP02 said:

I wonder about the difference between asymptomatic and presymptomatic. Are they differentiating at all between the people who stayed asymptomatic and people who are asymptomatic at the time of contact but who later develop symptoms (i.e. presymptomatic)?

As a layperson, it makes sense to me that presymptomatic people are more likely to transmit than asymptomatic people.
From what I read a few days ago, those who will develop symptoms have a much higher viral load than those who will never develop symptoms.
eric76
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
cone said:

how do you reconcile the meat packing plants?

or the nursing homes?

this doesn't make sense at all
Do meat packing plant workers get paid for sick days? Or do they not get paid those days when they don't work? If the latter, there would be good reason for them to keep working when sick.

As for nursing homes, might even a low viral load might be devastating those with low immunity?
Carnwellag2
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Brazil on line 1
terradactylexpress
How long do you want to ignore this user?
And their call is in regards to?
Gap
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG

Push update received today from Bloomberg:

Quote:

Bloomberg: The World Health Organization says it's still "rare" for a person infected with Covid-19 to "transmit onward to a secondary individual." Officials made the remarks on Monday, June 8, at a daily briefing in Geneva.

eric76
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Bloomberg screwed the pooch on this. The WHO did not say that. They said that it is rare for someone who is asymptomatic to transmit it.
FTAG 2000
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's China the W.H.O.

Just take whatever they say and do the opposite and we'll be okay.
permabull
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
eric76
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It appears that in the packing plants, lower level workers don't get any paid time off all. You would probably have to be very sick to not show up for work.
Page 1 of 2
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.