Abbott: Texans, Stay Home

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tysker
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In reply to dragmagpuff • 11:23p, 6/24/20
AG
dragmagpuff said:
DadHammer said:
This was caused by the riots.

They ruined the lockdown months.


What I find it hard to understand is why did the protests in certain cities cause increase viral spread, but not in others?

Lots of cities with big protests (like Minneapolis, Seattle, and New York) aren't seeing increases, while others like Houston are.

Maybe riots actually kept more people home in aggregate due to curfews or fear of property damage?

Maybe those cities had already had their first wave whereas Texas is just starting?
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to tysker • 11:26p, 6/24/20
AG
tysker said:
dragmagpuff said:
DadHammer said:
This was caused by the riots.

They ruined the lockdown months.


What I find it hard to understand is why did the protests in certain cities cause increase viral spread, but not in others?

Lots of cities with big protests (like Minneapolis, Seattle, and New York) aren't seeing increases, while others like Houston are.

Maybe riots actually kept more people home in aggregate due to curfews or fear of property damage?
Maybe those cities had already had their first wave whereas Texas is just starting?
Minnesota, Washington D.C., etc. never had any type of dramatic "first wave" that New York had, for example.

There's a similarity between Texas, Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, etc. that they don't share with other states, and its not that they were the centers of the most sustained, heavily attended protests.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to dragmagpuff • 11:31p, 6/24/20
AG
Quote:
Maybe riots actually kept more people home in aggregate due to curfews or fear of property damage?
Indeed, there's already a study on the issue.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/black-lives-matter-protests-haven-t-led-covid-19-spikes-n1232045

Direct link to the paper; https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf


Quote:
Event-study analyses provide strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased following protest onset, consistent with the hypothesis that nonprotesters' behavior was substantially affected by urban protests. This effect was not fully explained by the imposition of city curfews. Estimated effects were generally larger for persistent protests and those accompanied by media reports of violence. Furthermore, we find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset. We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived.
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Rutedown
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In reply to dragmagpuff • 1:19a, 6/25/20
dragmagpuff said:
DadHammer said:
This was caused by the riots.

They ruined the lockdown months.


What I find it hard to understand is why did the protests in certain cities cause increase viral spread, but not in others?

Lots of cities with big protests (like Minneapolis, Seattle, and New York) aren't seeing increases, while others like Houston are.

Maybe riots actually kept more people home in aggregate due to curfews or fear of property damage?


From pictures and the news footage showed many were wearing face masks, but of course not social distancing. I also think some here want to make this the cause of the spike, but like others stated it's not spiking in cities with big protests.
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ursusguy
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6:09a, 6/25/20
AG
Hypothetical--Protests, outdoors and lots of short term intermingling. Bars---indoors, lots of long term engaged conversations. More chances to get the annoying mask out of the way while talking.
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to DadHammer • 6:16a, 6/25/20
AG
DadHammer said:
This was caused by the riots.

They ruined the lockdown months.
You say this like it's some absolute fact, when you very well may be wrong. When you say this, you are just letting your political bias show.

https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/npr/2020/06/24/883017035/what-contact-tracing-tells-us-about-cluster-spread-of-the-coronavirus-and-protests/?fbclid=IwAR040ozYjwwG4ucaWRstf-J1xwYVyNU46laI6m0ujWMXvBosSdn2ZixqKhs


There's PLENTY of blame to go around for all the new cases.
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tysker
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 6:54a, 6/25/20
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
tysker said:
dragmagpuff said:
DadHammer said:
This was caused by the riots.

They ruined the lockdown months.


What I find it hard to understand is why did the protests in certain cities cause increase viral spread, but not in others?

Lots of cities with big protests (like Minneapolis, Seattle, and New York) aren't seeing increases, while others like Houston are.

Maybe riots actually kept more people home in aggregate due to curfews or fear of property damage?
Maybe those cities had already had their first wave whereas Texas is just starting?
Minnesota, Washington D.C., etc. never had any type of dramatic "first wave" that New York had, for example.

There's a similarity between Texas, Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, etc. that they don't share with other states, and its not that they were the centers of the most sustained, heavily attended protests.
What similarity? That they are states more populated by 20-39 year olds that dont want to follow guidelines and/or are spreading it unknowingly? More comorbidities (e.g. higher diabetes rates, more smokers).
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corleoneAg99
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7:00a, 6/25/20
AG
Really odd...a paper written by a non profit in Cambridge and an NPR affiliated publication basically saying protests and riots had no impact?

I know I'm convinced!

Meanwhile in places who, according to some on this forum, have this thing completely "contained", instructions were given not to ask if folks attended protests:

https://www.businessinsider.com/nyc-contact-tracers-not-asking-people-attend-george-floyd-protest-2020-6


It's almost like we're making the data collection and presentation political.
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tysker
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 7:25a, 6/25/20
AG
Player To Be Named Later said:
DadHammer said:
This was caused by the riots.

They ruined the lockdown months.
You say this like it's some absolute fact, when you very well may be wrong. When you say this, you are just letting your political bias show.

https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/npr/2020/06/24/883017035/what-contact-tracing-tells-us-about-cluster-spread-of-the-coronavirus-and-protests/?fbclid=IwAR040ozYjwwG4ucaWRstf-J1xwYVyNU46laI6m0ujWMXvBosSdn2ZixqKhs


There's PLENTY of blame to go around for all the new cases.
Is blame the right word as new cases were inevitable? Even here in Texas you see old people out as if nothing is happening not protecting themselves. It's easy for third parties to place blame on people that are'nt protecting themselves.

From your article this:

Quote:
"It's really basically who gets exposed," Holder tells Morning Edition. "If you look who is staying in and following the guidelines, [it's] older people who are at risk. The older folks got [the message]; the young people, not so much."
I'd say this is exactly the message the data is telling us. The elderly and the sick need to stay in be diligent while the young and healthy can go out and be less diligent.

Also this refrain is repeated over and over:
Quote:
"The concern is that because these younger people are having more mild symptoms, they are going to work sick, they are visiting with their parents and grandparents sick and they're continuing to go to social events where they expose more and more people," Lautenbach says. "So when we think about that web of spread, that web just grows and grows and grows."
Is there evidence that a young adult has transmitted to a parent or grandparent? Anecdotally, the people I know that frequently visit with elderly family are the most diligent.

More and more studies suggest children don't transmit to adults. I'm curious to know what transmission can/does occur? Does transmittability increase at age 16, or 22 or 30?
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to tysker • 8:00a, 6/25/20
AG
The only point i'm making is that simply blaming the "protesters" for all the new cases is missing the point.

And I've been in law enforcement for 20yrs....... if anyone would love to just simply blame the protesters, it would be me.
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P.U.T.U
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8:50a, 6/25/20
AG
There are a lot of opinions on one side saying the protest have nothing to do with the spike when common sense says there will be a spike when that many people get together, for that amount of time, in that close of a distance, and not everyone wearing mask with a lot of yelling. Harris county is seeing one of the largest spikes and you had protest and the funeral there, you cannot tell me there was not a spread due to all of that.

It seems like you have the protest surge and then you have the young people that have been stuck inside catching up with their friends at close distances such as houses, bars, and restaurants. You see the other surge in this age group. The third surge is those people going back home and then spreading it there.

The last one is those going back to work, seems like most in indoor environments.

At the end of the day the more information we have the better we can plan going forward. Such as if there is a large spike due to the protest than sporting events with fans may be a bad idea since they are in similar environments. If a lot of spread is coming from bars and restaurants than the owners need to figure out how to minimize the spread be it less capacity or whatever is deemed necessary.
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 9:08a, 6/25/20
AG
P.U.T.U said:
There are a lot of opinions on one side saying the protest have nothing to do with the spike when common sense says there will be a spike when that many people get together, for that amount of time, in that close of a distance, and not everyone wearing mask with a lot of yelling. Harris county is seeing one of the largest spikes and you had protest and the funeral there, you cannot tell me there was not a spread due to all of that.

It seems like you have the protest surge and then you have the young people that have been stuck inside catching up with their friends at close distances such as houses, bars, and restaurants. You see the other surge in this age group. The third surge is those people going back home and then spreading it there.

The last one is those going back to work, seems like most in indoor environments.

At the end of the day the more information we have the better we can plan going forward. Such as if there is a large spike due to the protest than sporting events with fans may be a bad idea since they are in similar environments. If a lot of spread is coming from bars and restaurants than the owners need to figure out how to minimize the spread be it less capacity or whatever is deemed necessary.
Like anything, the truth is likely in the middle. This big of a spike, if we are being intelligent, is likely due to multiple factors and not just one.

But no, we have to have the two "sides" saying it was all due to whichever issue they disagree politically with. Conservative? It was all those dang protesters! Liberal? No, no, it's just from businesses opening.

Rational people? It was probably a result of both.
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agforlife97
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In reply to DFWTLR • 9:12a, 6/25/20
AG
DFWTLR said:




So are we to stay locked down forever? A vaccine should not be depended on, they don't just happen within a year or two, sometimes never...as in the case of coronavirus.

Treatments and learning to deal with spikes is the only way to progress. Shutting down again (or never opening back up) was never an option. Unfortunately some hospitals will be overwhelmed, but the healthcare system as a whole will not. I drove by a hospital today with a giant brand new sign that said ER No Wait!! Maybe the election year goes both ways?


The idea of a vaccine as a panacea is a pipe dream. It will take a long time to develop in the first place, and then the virus will continually mutate like all other viruses.
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LawHall88
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9:20a, 6/25/20
AG
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AggieMPH2005
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9:57a, 6/25/20
This is ridiculous, that elective procedures are banned and restaurants, bars and gyms are allowed 75% capacity.

Completely backwards.
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HowdyTexasAggies
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In reply to LawHall88 • 10:02a, 6/25/20
AG
LawHall88 said:

I wonder if Abbott bothered asking the hospital execs if this is what they wanted? Couldn't they have made that decision on their own? This is freaking stupid.
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tysker
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In reply to AggieMPH2005 • 10:02a, 6/25/20
AG
AggieMPH2005 said:
This is ridiculous, that elective procedures are banned and restaurants, bars and gyms are allowed 75% capacity.

Completely backwards.
I disagree from a hospital bed perspective.
I doubt gyms, bars and restaurants lead to more ICU bed usage than elective surgeries, generally speaking. If there's a direct line showing bars and restaurants cause in increase in ICU bed usage then they should be closed or held to lower capacity.
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to AggieMPH2005 • 10:02a, 6/25/20
AG
AggieMPH2005 said:
This is ridiculous, that elective procedures are banned and restaurants, bars and gyms are allowed 75% capacity.

Completely backwards.
Chips and salsa are way more important to Texans than medical procedures.

My God we are stupid
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agforlife97
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 10:10a, 6/25/20
AG
Player To Be Named Later said:
AggieMPH2005 said:
This is ridiculous, that elective procedures are banned and restaurants, bars and gyms are allowed 75% capacity.

Completely backwards.
Chips and salsa are way more important to Texans than medical procedures.

My God we are stupid
Lock them down another 6 weeks and those restaurants, bars and gyms will be all gone permanently. That's the issue. Abbot is only freeing up space in major hospital systems in the state on a temporary basis. Obviously this is not ideal, but he's having to make choices to manage the crisis while doing the least harm overall.
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agforlife97
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 10:11a, 6/25/20
AG
OlSarge92 said:
LawHall88 said:

I wonder if Abbott bothered asking the hospital execs if this is what they wanted? Couldn't they have made that decision on their own? This is freaking stupid.
From a legal perspective, I'm not sure the hospitals can make these kinds of calls, maybe someone with expertise could answer that. But if you've been paying attention to what Texas docs have been saying the last week, we all knew this was coming. They've been sounding the alarm.
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AggieMPH2005
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10:11a, 6/25/20
I run a hospital that specializes in elective surgery. If ANY of our elective surgeries that we do lead to ICU usage we report it to MEC it's that big of a deal. Just for perspective.
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to agforlife97 • 10:12a, 6/25/20
AG
Sure it wouldn't be ideal. But by not addressing any of the likely causes for the spikes won't solve anything in the longer term.

I mean, if we want to just power through this, do it 100% right? This is such an epic **** show.
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HowdyTexasAggies
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In reply to agforlife97 • 10:13a, 6/25/20
AG
Sure, they have been sounding the alarm. They asked people to mask up, social distance Did they ask to have part of their business shut down because they couldn't do it on their own?
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agforlife97
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 10:15a, 6/25/20
AG
Player To Be Named Later said:
Sure it wouldn't be ideal. But by not addressing any of the likely causes for the spikes won't solve anything in the longer term.

I mean, if we want to just power through this, do it 100% right? This is such an epic **** show.
What many people don't seem to understand is that you cannot solve the spikes. It's impossible. All you can do is try and manage it. You can't shut the state down every 6-8 weeks or you will permanently destroy the economy. Businesses will fail broadly which will cause massive unemployment, reduction in consumer spending, an epic collapse in the commercial real estate market, etc, etc.

Luckily fewer people seem to be dying now at least.
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In reply to agforlife97 • 10:16a, 6/25/20
AG
Let's see what the numbers start looking like in 2 or 3 weeks.

Hopefully you're right and deaths will stay lower. But if not, we will be way behind the 8 ball.
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agforlife97
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 10:17a, 6/25/20
AG
OlSarge92 said:
Sure, they have been sounding the alarm. They asked people to mask up, social distance Did they ask to have part of their business shut down because they couldn't do it on their own?
Of course not. But doctors also wouldn't like it if covid patients were dying in the streets. That's kind of the choice you're making right now.
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HowdyTexasAggies
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In reply to agforlife97 • 10:20a, 6/25/20
AG
That doesn't make sense to me. My point, hospitals should be making the decision to close down elective surgeries if they think it would prevent "covid patients were dying in the streets".
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agforlife97
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 10:23a, 6/25/20
AG
OlSarge92 said:
That doesn't make sense to me. My point, hospitals should be making the decision to close down elective surgeries if they think it would prevent "covid patients were dying in the streets".
To me the question is can they do that from a legal perspective? I would assume not at this point but I could be wrong. I did see that one hospital exec in Houston came out against the order, which is interesting.
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HowdyTexasAggies
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In reply to agforlife97 • 10:27a, 6/25/20
AG
I have no idea how legally a Dr. or hospital can be compelled to perform elective surgery. Makes no sense, but then again, our legal system has gone of the rails in many cases.

I am not surprised on the hospital exec, Abbot continues to screw this up. He's got some really bad advisers IMO.
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Player To Be Named Later
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10:27a, 6/25/20
AG
I think it's just a matter of Abbott figuring he'll get less political heat for doing this than keeping people from their margaritas and unlimited chips and dip.

Most people won't even blink at this decision or be affected. But tell then they can't go get their chips and dip and drink at a bar and people will lose their ever loving minds again.
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AggieMPH2005
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10:28a, 6/25/20
Yes the hospitals can set their own case schedules. We do it all the time. THR and Methodist in DFW for example cancelled all their elective surgeries a week prior to the 1st ban. There is no legal issue at all.
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AggieMPH2005
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10:29a, 6/25/20
Player, I agree 100%
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murphyag
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 10:30a, 6/25/20
AG
OlSarge92 said:
Sure, they have been sounding the alarm. They asked people to mask up, social distance Did they ask to have part of their business shut down because they couldn't do it on their own?


Well, majority of Texans aren't masking up or social distancing. So, this is what has happened. The docs saw this coming.
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HowdyTexasAggies
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 10:31a, 6/25/20
AG
If he really wanted to make a difference, he would just simply implement the mask policy on all businesses. I don't agree with that approach, but that would at least make sense vs. what he just did.

Or, he could take the message from the Houston hospital, retweet that out via social media avenues, (of course, his team has no clue on how to work those channels from what i see)
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 10:34a, 6/25/20
AG
Pretty much the one consistent thing with ALL of this is that NOBODY seems to know WTF they are doing. Republican, Democrat, you name it, are botching this thing all the way around.
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