Why are cases up and deaths down, down, down

10,708 Views | 61 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by CowtownAg06
Leggo My Elko
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I really hope I'm wrong and the death rate stays low, but I'm expecting to see an increase, and hopefully not but possibly substantial increase around late July.
plain_o_llama
How long do you want to ignore this user?
TXAggie2011 is correct....

This data set is difficult to report on because of the time lag in accumulating the data. People look at the graph included above and assume it represents a count of the deaths on 6/20. It gives the appearance there were almost no deaths.

You can see the data for 6/20 in the first report it appears in

http://web.archive.org/web/20200624235856/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

if you check back every week you can watch how that number rises as more data flows in. The original plot would make more sense as an animation.

If you want to get a feel for how the dataset evolves observe how the 4/4 reported data changes

on 4/6 the 4/4 value is 415 deaths for the week ending 4/4
http://web.archive.org/web/20200406201807/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

on 4/22 the 4/4 value is 6258
http://web.archive.org/web/20200422234836/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

on 5/6 the 4/4 value is 8333
http://web.archive.org/web/20200506223430/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

on 6/24 the 4/4 value is 9504
http://web.archive.org/web/20200624235856/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

As others have pointed out, deaths credited to Covid in the week ending 4/4 trickle in to the CDC database for a while.

So, if you are reporting on such a data set what is the best approach?

If you report incomplete data people are prone to misinterpret and be mislead. If you wait for the data to be reasonably accurate it isn't timely and you are accused of covering up the data, being incompetent, etc.

Now if there is an audience eager to hear and tell a story about the government "covering up" the situation related to such data, fame and fortune may await. That is what played out in Florida.




Mrs Jones has raised more than $191K on gofundme, been hailed as a "brave whistleblower", and appeared on national news outlets to tell her version of how Florida is fudging and hiding data.



Barnyard96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Man what an awesome find by CNN. They defined resident vs non-resident. Awesome work.
Barnyard96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Gordo14
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I don't understand why people think that ICU count is going way up but death rate won't follow. It's not a narrative. We went through this same thing in March and deaths didn't really take off until April. I agree that there isn't as many cases as there were back when we didn't have testing infrastructure in March. However, that doesn't change the fact the trend is unsustainable on our medical infrastructure.
Barnyard96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Gordo14 said:

I don't understand why people think that ICU count is going way up but death rate won't follow. It's not a narrative. We went through this same thing in March and deaths didn't really take off until April. I agree that there isn't as many cases as there were back when we didn't have testing infrastructure in March. However, that doesn't change the fact the trend is unsustainable on our medical infrastructure.
One front-line doctor on here stated they now have treatments and they are saving many more patients.
Spaulding
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Unless the trend changes it will be back in the SNF & LTC soon and death counts will go up quickly Given the current hotspots are AZ and FL I hope the docs are ready it seems likely to get worse quickly
corleoneAg99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
TXAggie2011
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
While deaths will be less prevalent among the age group that is largely contracting the virus right now, I think part of the idea is the shear volume will still lead to deaths.

People, even if they're young, aren't filling ICUs for fun. They're sick. Many are really sick. And some of them will probably die. It probably won't look like April, but more people will probably begin to die.

Indeed, we've already started to see upticks in some of the states seeing the largest case increases.

The situation probably got the worst, the earliest, in Arizona. And their moving death averages are 20% higher than they ever were and increased again today.

No reason to be quite such a dick about it, btw.


(Texas' moving death averages are up 40%ish over two weeks ago. And increased again today. Not quite where they were in early May, but they're headed in the wrong direction.)
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
corleoneAg99 said:

Here's a chart showing cases hospitalizations deaths by age and more specifically, deaths much much less prevalent in the age groupings where cases are growing.

The VERY next post?

I don't know why you guys think deaths won't follow hospitalizations????? The end is nigh and so on!!!!!

I mean....it's just so ****ing weird why people want the data to portend a worse outcome and when it doesn't they just ignore it?

Crazy.
Come on man, not a single poster on here wants deaths to increase, but it is common sense that increased hospitalizations will eventually lead to an increase in deaths with regards to COVID. San Antonio has already nearly doubled the number of COVID patients on ventilators in just 4 days from 60 to 117.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
corleoneAg99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:

corleoneAg99 said:

Here's a chart showing cases hospitalizations deaths by age and more specifically, deaths much much less prevalent in the age groupings where cases are growing.

The VERY next post?

I don't know why you guys think deaths won't follow hospitalizations????? The end is nigh and so on!!!!!

I mean....it's just so ****ing weird why people want the data to portend a worse outcome and when it doesn't they just ignore it?

Crazy.
Come on man, not a single poster on here wants deaths to increase, but it is common sense that increased hospitalizations will eventually lead to an increase in deaths with regards to COVID. San Antonio has already nearly doubled the number of COVID patients on ventilators in just 4 days from 60 to 117.


Didn't say people want deaths to increase...I said people want the data to portend a worse outcome than what the data is showing...why? Probably because it contradicts their preconceived notions?

Your guess is as good as mine.

TXAggie2011
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Okay. Well, to be explicit, I think deaths will increase a meaningful amount.

I don't want it and I hope I'm wrong.
Big Al 1992
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Why so many on vents when lots of the data (may be anecdotal) says try to stay off vents if at all possible? Current standard of care or all of these people are at the last resort stage?
Infection_Ag11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
The current spike in cases is skewed towards the younger demographic, but as others have said this is primarily just an issue of lag.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Infection_Ag11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
corleoneAg99 said:

Here's a chart showing cases hospitalizations deaths by age and more specifically, deaths much much less prevalent in the age groupings where cases are growing.

The VERY next post?

I don't know why you guys think deaths won't follow hospitalizations????? The end is nigh and so on!!!!!

I mean....it's just so ****ing weird why people want the data to portend a worse outcome and when it doesn't they just ignore it?

Crazy.


Nobody wants more deaths or the data to show something different than what it does. You're getting upset at people who simply understand the variables in play here better than you do.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Barnyard96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Or he is skeptical of the science community and tired of the fear mongering.
Keegan99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
nm
Infection_Ag11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
barnyard1996 said:

Or he is skeptical of the science community and tired of the fear mongering.


You think "big science" is behind statistical and reporting lag?
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
corleoneAg99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Infection_Ag11 said:

corleoneAg99 said:

Here's a chart showing cases hospitalizations deaths by age and more specifically, deaths much much less prevalent in the age groupings where cases are growing.

The VERY next post?

I don't know why you guys think deaths won't follow hospitalizations????? The end is nigh and so on!!!!!

I mean....it's just so ****ing weird why people want the data to portend a worse outcome and when it doesn't they just ignore it?

Crazy.


Nobody wants more deaths or the data to show something different than what it does. You're getting upset at people who simply understand the variables in play here better than you do.

So for you Gordo 14 understands the stats better than Avik Roy?

No offense doc, but that's insane, and really hurts your credibility in being objective.

And once again, I never said people want more deaths. I said people are resistant to data simply because it refutes their preconceived notions despite the fact they want you to think their take is purely data driven.

It's kind of like one of the docs on this thread who had some pretty strong takes about lack of treatments and they were directly opposite from another doc on this forum who is literally treating people in his hospital with the treatments in question and having good effect. It was mind boggling watching the first doctor play word salad to continue to perpetuate his worldview.

Some docs not being objective is a massive issue....I hope they can do better.
Barnyard96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's how its reported.

News: "Cases are Up! OH my God!"
Us: "Wait, but deaths are down. That's a good sign right?"
News: "Probably not, there's a lag, wait two weeks"
Us: "Oh yeah, I forgot, thanks"
Aust Ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I know there's a running joke about "2 weeks", but I really feel like this one is the final attempt. Either deaths in mid-July move parallel to today's hospitalizations spike or they don't. If they do, then we really need to re-evaluate/rethink school re-openings, events, etc. If not, then it's damn the torpedos, full steam ahead. And then we move Covid to "page 2", and get back to a revised normal. People are exhausted with this.
AgsMyDude
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Completely agree. It was pretty obvious we'd see a spike in cases when Memorial Day and the massive protests were back to back. Now we're here a few weeks later.

If deaths don't increase substantially we're in much better shape. They'll be few theories out there. It was mostly young this go round, treatment has come a long way, the it's weakening like SARS, etc.

Going to be an interesting couple weeks.

culdeus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
If you want to make it look bad quote the counts. If you want to make it look not bad quote the percents. That's the whole thing in a nutshell.

I do believe there is a conspiracy ongoing in the US to suppress death counts. So look overseas where there isn't, and the rates are still down.

Doesn't give people license to be a dumbass.
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
corleoneAg99 said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

corleoneAg99 said:

Here's a chart showing cases hospitalizations deaths by age and more specifically, deaths much much less prevalent in the age groupings where cases are growing.

The VERY next post?

I don't know why you guys think deaths won't follow hospitalizations????? The end is nigh and so on!!!!!

I mean....it's just so ****ing weird why people want the data to portend a worse outcome and when it doesn't they just ignore it?

Crazy.


Nobody wants more deaths or the data to show something different than what it does. You're getting upset at people who simply understand the variables in play here better than you do.

So for you Gordo 14 understands the stats better than Avik Roy?

No offense doc, but that's insane, and really hurts your credibility in being objective.

And once again, I never said people want more deaths. I said people are resistant to data simply because it refutes their preconceived notions despite the fact they want you to think their take is purely data driven.

It's kind of like one of the docs on this thread who had some pretty strong takes about lack of treatments and they were directly opposite from another doc on this forum who is literally treating people in his hospital with the treatments in question and having good effect. It was mind boggling watching the first doctor play word salad to continue to perpetuate his worldview.

Some docs not being objective is a massive issue....I hope they can do better.


If this is in reply to me contradicting what Marcus stated in another thread, you are significantly misunderstanding what was being stated.

My take is entirely based on the evidence. I am not blinded by political allegiances as many posters on here seem to be. My opinions are based on the evidence or lack there of. I care for COVID patients in the hospital, as well. It is quite possible that other therapies being used work, but we don't know and anecdotes really mean nothing. Just look at the hydroxychloroquine situation. Numerous posters were upset with me for stating that we should probably wait for the evidence before mass utilization on mild cases and using it for prophylaxis. Turns out it doesn't work despite the numerous physicians claiming efficacy. To this date, there is only two therapies that have been determined by high quality evidence to demonstrate clinical improvement and only one that has demonstrated mortality benefit. Those are the facts, there is no specific worldview that changes that. There are others that make sense physiologically; however, medicine is rife with treatments that make sense but don't work.

This is why I strongly disagree with any physician that is telling people that if a physician is not using convalescent plasma, treatment dose lovenox, actemra, etc. for moderate-severe cases, they need to find a new hospital. That is a dangerous statement to make on a widely read message board and might lead to people doing things like trying to remove unstable family members out of the hospital to take them elsewhere, or at the minimum leading to patients and family members demanding treatments which have the possibility of actually increasing morbidity or mortality. We certainly use all of those treatments at our hospital, but it is left up to physician discretion and patients are informed that these treatments are experimental. Those treatments might work, they also might not, we have no clue, but we should not fault anyone for waiting to see what the evidence shows.

No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Fitch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
With respect, the ad hominem here is unnecessary.
Picadillo
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The Good News About COVID-19 the Corporate Media Keeps Hidden

https://pjmedia.com/columns/stacey-lennox/2020/06/27/the-good-news-about-covid-19-the-corporate-media-keeps-hidden-n583317


Quote:

A doctor from the University of Pennsylvania Medical Center said in a press conference Wednesday that people who are testing positive do not appear to be getting as sick as they did earlier in the pandemic. Dr. Donald Yealy also noted this trend was being seen in the wake of massive protests.



He suggested the country is focusing too much on rising COVID-19 case counts.

"We need to change our mindset and focus not exclusively on the number of cases, but on the severity of illness. We shouldn't just be counting those who have a diagnosed infection," Yealy said. "For the vast majority of people testing positive, their illness is mild, or they don't even know they have any symptoms of COVID-19 infection."



Dr. Yealy also noted that the positive case rate was about one in 400, which has remained steady for weeks. He also noted improved treatment protocols and some success with Remdisivir and other medications. Effective treatment is in addition to some success protecting the elderly and a much younger patient load testing positive.




Aust Ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
You left out this part right afterwards....

"In summary, what our experience shows is that fewer people are being admitted, and when they are, they tend to be much less sick than at the beginning or at the peak phases of the pandemic."

Not sure when the Dr. said this, but we're not seeing "fewer people" admitted. Like the article though.
CowtownAg06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Maybe he means a lower % of positives?
Refresh
Page 2 of 2
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.