The truth about Covid and hospital capacity in Houston

3,316 Views | 13 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Beat40
DeWrecking Crew
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The fear mongering does nobody any good, unless of course there's an election soon.
HotardAg07
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AG
Yes, 100% base capacity is not in and of itself a reason for concern. However the growing levels of hospitalizations in a short period of time is a reason for concern and the Texas Medical Center themselves told is that "sustainable surge capacity" would be exceeded in 12 days at the current rate of growth.

All of the hospital CEOs say that the virus should be taken seriouslY, people need to mask, social distance, etc. they just don't like people making it sound like the hospitals are overwhelmed when they have tried to prepare for this moment.
DeWrecking Crew
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Quote:

We are seeing younger patients, we are seeing a shorter length of stay, we are seeing lower immortality, and we are seeing lower ICU utilization."


From the same Twitter thread

Edit to say, this doesn't sound like a reason to stop or even slow the opening of the economy
Aust Ag
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AG
DeWrecking Crew said:

Quote:

We are seeing younger patients, we are seeing a shorter length of stay, we are seeing lower immortality, and we are seeing lower ICU utilization."


From the same Twitter thread
That all makes sense, with "lower ICU utilzation" due to Drs being better prepared and having more knowledge of this virus. But the "cases"..... :/
lazuras_dc
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AG
Does that mean they were seeing Immortality to begin with ? If so I'd consider checking myself in.
Aust Ag
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AG
Haha, I thought that too!
Picadillo
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Postponed elective procedures from May are also part of the reason, so not all are Covid admissions.

There are also admissions for patients "with Covid" that are being admitted for something else, and not "because of Covid" but nonetheless classified as a covid admission.


HotardAg07
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AG

AeroAg1
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AG
HotardAg07 said:



What does that chart look like if they showed us more information and data left of March?
lead
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That chart only shows COVID hospitalizations. But the projections for capacity assume non-COVID hospitalizations remain at current rate. Not sure how the projection is made.
BiochemAg97
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AG
lead said:

That chart only shows COVID hospitalizations. But the projections for capacity assume non-COVID hospitalizations remain at current rate. Not sure how the projection is made.

Especially when you consider 1) non-COVID ICU beds has been dropping and 2) Gov went backwards limiting non-essential surgeries (probably just more of the same as 1). Thus, there should be a decrease in nonCOVID Hospitalizations that would flatten that projection.
scd88
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AG
It goes back to how hospitals are reimbursed for COVID, which it is a known fact they get more money for that. It is also very possible that, with the younger age group being the most positive, they know that will not lead to as many ICU beds taken up.

Execs will say "bring it on, we want COVID hospital stays; but we know that won't overly stress ICU capacity." They know this stuff.

The country has managed to protect their high risk patients. Nobody will acknowledge that, but it's true.

The people who are getting it NOW versus in the beginning are different and maybe the medical profession has learned how to deal with this.

It's not going away. We can't stay shut down. People are going to get it. The hysteria is media and political fear mongering versus true fact based reporting and forward thinking advice.
jeffdjohnson
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HotardAg07 said:





"2 weeks away" has become parody at this point.
Vernada
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AG
Quote:

The country has managed to protect their high risk patients. Nobody will acknowledge that, but it's true.
Pretty much everything I read makes this observation along with the fact that most new infections are younger.

And we could successfully reopen if people would behave responsibly.

Just like 'this is never going away' there's a good chance things will not go back to 'exactly the way they were'.

Even with what's going on right now, a business owner friend of mine got cussed out in his own business yesterday when he told a customer they could not enter the store w/o a mask. Not even his rules - it's the city ordinance. Such a simple thing to help keep business going...
Beat40
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Vernada said:

Quote:

The country has managed to protect their high risk patients. Nobody will acknowledge that, but it's true.
Pretty much everything I read makes this observation along with the fact that most new infections are younger.

And we could successfully reopen if people would behave responsibly.

Just like 'this is never going away' there's a good chance things will not go back to 'exactly the way they were'.

Even with what's going on right now, a business owner friend of mine got cussed out in his own business yesterday when he told a customer they could not enter the store w/o a mask. Not even his rules - it's the city ordinance. Such a simple thing to help keep business going...
It may be 1 year or it may be 2, but eventually life will get all the way back to the way it was. Heck, it took around 2 years for the Spanish Flu to end and then things went back to normal. We all need to keep this perspective. Let's manage this time, and let's do it effectively, but let's also remember we're going to go back to what we know eventually.
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