Preprint: Strong Correlation of Vitamin D Deficiency and Population Mortality Rate

2,913 Views | 15 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by ramblin_ag02
Keegan99
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9:58a, 7/1/20
AG

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20138644v1


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Abstract

Background: SARS-CoV-2 virus causes a very wide range of COVID-19 disease severity in humans: from completely asymptomatic to fatal, and the reasons behind it are often not understood. There is some data that Vitamin D may have protective effect, so authors decided to analyze European country-wide data to determine if Vitamin D levels are associated with COVID-19 population death rate. Methods: To retrieve the Vitamin D levels data, authors analyzed the Vitamin D European population data compiled by 2019 ECTS Statement on Vitamin D Status published in the European Journal of Endocrinology. For the data set to used for analysis, only recently published data, that included general adult population of both genders ages 40-65 or wider, and must have included the prevalence of Vitamin D deficiency. Results: There were 10 countries data sets that fit the criteria and were analyzed. Severe Vitamin D deficiency was defined as 25(OH)D less than 25 nmol/L (10 ng/dL). Pearson correlation analysis between death rate per million from COVID-19 and prevalence of severe Vitamin D deficiency shows a strong correlation with r = 0.76, p = 0.01, indicating significant correlation. Correlation remained significant, even after adjusting for age structure of the population. Additionally, over time, correlation strengthened, and r coefficient asymptoticaly increased. Conclusions: Authors recommend universal screening for Vitamin D deficiency, and further investigation of Vitamin D supplementation in randomized control studies, which may lead to possible treatment or prevention of COVID-19.




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CardiffGiant
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12:37p, 7/1/20
AG
And the local govt's response is to shove people indoors. I get shutting down mass crowds of people but going to the beach while maintaining some distance from your neighbor beachgoer should not be shut down. Not to mention what vitamin D does for your mental health.
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amercer
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12:49p, 7/1/20
AG
Not saying this paper is right or wrong, but COVID has turned the pre-print model into complete trash.

Pre prInt worked great when it was a small community of physicists who would upload stuff so other people could check their calculations. It was always a more shaky proposition for biology papers, and now it's basically just a press release to be consumed by a million Twitter users depending on whether it reinforces their beliefs or not.

[end rant]

Again this paper could be excellent work, but we need to stop looking at science that hasn't been peer reviewed.
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to amercer • 1:08p, 7/1/20
Well, I'm going to keep looking at it and feel like I can tell when there is an agenda or data is limited in the study or if not all variables impacting outcome were included in the study. I agree with they all getting fed out to twitterverse and generally with some summary provided by the tweeter, not even the researcher, and few even open up the real study. At least in this case, even if learned about via a tweet, OP has linked to the study itself.


Is Vitamin D linked to other coronaviruses? Influenza? Or just immunity strength in general? Wondering if this is almost a "duh" point for medical specialists - I truly don't know myself.
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In reply to amercer • 1:16p, 7/1/20
Complete Idiot
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1:22p, 7/1/20
Well, some quick searches tell me Vitamin D has been linked to viruses and flu before, so kind of an overall "duh" point but if proving same holds true to Covid 19 it still has value.
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amercer
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In reply to [removed post] • 1:24p, 7/1/20
AG
It's not a perfect system, but it's way better than the alternative. Plus, publication in an actual journal (and subsequent listing on pubmed) means a lot more qualified people will look at it, debate it, and maybe force a retraction if it's really flawed.

For the pre print stuff, there's no guarantee that anyone qualified to evaluate the paper will ever look at it. But it still may bounce around for years on the internet being used as "science" to support some point or another.
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In reply to amercer • 1:43p, 7/1/20
Sonic5678
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1:55p, 7/1/20
AG
I know that in the past few years I have read several times that Vitamin D seems to be even more important than Vitamin C in preventing the common cold. Fresh air and sunshine and all that - just like our grandmas told us in the really old days to keep kids healthy. Turns out it's good for all of us.
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BlueSmoke
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1:58p, 7/1/20
Dr Rhonda Patrick has been beating this drum for YEARS! A decade ago, I was at the Cooper Fitness center in Dallas and took to heart their advice on both Omega-3s and VitD (5,000+ IUs/day) and have been taking consistently ever since.
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ToddyHill
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4:31p, 7/1/20
AG
I've read a lot of research on Vitamin D deficiency and the severity of Covid. I personally think there's something to this.

I'm not saying this is what saved my bacon, but I'm 63, and I tested positive for Covid on May 4. Candidly, it kicked me to the curb. I honestly believe the one thing that helped me to get through this was my Vitamin D levels. I drink a lot of milk, probably a gallon per week. I also took Vitamin D supplements when I was in isolation. It may be all a bunch of bunk, but I'm of the opinion my Vitamin D levels assisted in my recovery.
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cowenlaw
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5:08p, 7/1/20
AG
My vitamin D levels have been low even after taking 4,000 IU/day for a couple of years. I just started a weekly 50,000 IU injection in the hope of getting the levels to normal before I come down with Covid.
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
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5:25p, 7/1/20
Certainly hypothesis generating but there is a high likelihood that this finding is due to confounding variables rather than being causative. I think of vitamin D as a surrogate marker of overall health. The incidence of Vitamin D deficiency significantly increases with age, in those diabetes, and especially in those with renal failure.

It would be like designing a study to evaluate COVID outcomes based on the number of miles run a week, and then assuming running protects you from COVID when the results inevitably find that the more miles you run a week correlated with better COVID outcomes. Not saying this is definitively the case, but I wouldn't make much of these results without more evidence.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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eric76
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In reply to [removed post] • 5:35p, 7/1/20
AG
JJMt said:
I agree with your general point, but want to quibble that peer review is the gold standard sign of validity. Peer review has been shown to be deeply flawed in its own right. Lots of crap has been OK'd via peer review, and peer review can also act as an arbitrary gate keeper excluding papers that challenge the consensus.

Rather than an impeccable sign of validity, it seems that peer review should merely be the first threshold before a study finds acceptability. In reality, it may take a long while for a study's flaws to be discerned, and then only if it's sufficiently important to receive the attention of a number of other scientists and scholars.

I don't know why we think that finding 2 or 3 other experts who will OK a paper or study has any deep significance on that paper or study's validity.
I've been asked to do peer review of papers but respectively declined to do so because I no longer keep up with the research on that topic.
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eric76
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In reply to ToddyHill • 5:38p, 7/1/20
AG
ToddyHill said:
I've read a lot of research on Vitamin D deficiency and the severity of Covid. I personally think there's something to this.

I'm not saying this is what saved my bacon, but I'm 63, and I tested positive for Covid on May 4. Candidly, it kicked me to the curb. I honestly believe the one thing that helped me to get through this was my Vitamin D levels. I drink a lot of milk, probably a gallon per week. I also took Vitamin D supplements when I was in isolation. It may be all a bunch of bunk, but I'm of the opinion my Vitamin D levels assisted in my recovery.
I had covid-19 about the same time. I've been taking 5000 IU of Vitamin D daily for several years.

I don't know if it helped, but the total extent of my symptoms was a really strange sense of smell for about 6 to 8 hours one evening.
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Keegan99
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12:01a, 7/3/20
AG
Latest hospitalization data from CDC.

Could this be explained solely by socioeconomic factors and overall health? It seems at first blush like an almost impossibly large disparity.
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ramblin_ag02
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8:05a, 7/3/20
AG
For those new to the whole vitamin D song and dance, vitamin D deficiency has been shown to make everything worse. Heart attacks, cancer, diabetes, multiple sclerosis, and on and on. If you can think of a disease, then there's a study somewhere showing that if happens more often and worse in people with low levels of vitamin D.

However, none of these things improve when you supplement vitamin D except for osteoporosis. When people take the supplements they get just as much illness and it's still just as bad. I second Dr Dr Ag above. When you see "vitamin D deficiency " think any unhealthy diet, no time outside, no physical activity, smoking/drinking/drugs, and not health conscious enough to be on supplements already.

So when I read the OP I think it makes sense. Unhealthy people do worse when sick, and lots of people need to eat better, exercise more, and avoid bad habits.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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