https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html

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Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.

The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus. Herd immunity is achieved when enough of a population has become infected with a virus or bacteria -- or vaccinated against it -- to stop its circulation.

The European Center for Disease Control told CNN that Spain's research, on a nationwide representative sample of more than 61,000 participants, appears to be the largest study to date among a dozen serological studies on the coronavirus undertaken by European nations.
It adds to the findings of an antibody study involving 2,766 participants in Geneva, Switzerland, published in the Lancet on June 11.

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"In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable," said the Lancet's commentary authors, Isabella Eckerle, head of the Geneva Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases, and Benjamin Meyer, a virologist at the University of Geneva.

Doctors are uncertain whether having antibodies to the coronavirus means someone cannot be infected again. It's not clear how long or how well antibodies protect people from the virus.

Spain's peer-reviewed study began in April while the nation remained on a strict lockdown, and was conducted by leading government research and epidemiological agencies.

"The relatively low seroprevalence observed in the context of an intense epidemic in Spain might serve as a reference to other countries. At present, herd immunity is difficult to achieve without accepting the collateral damage of many deaths in the susceptible population and overburdening of health systems," the report reads.

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61k participants, largest peer reviewed study yet shows that Spain went from 5% infected in April to 5.2% infected now.

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The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus.

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No, they don't.

The lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

Very mild cases probably don't generate much immune response, so it possible you could get it again.

The (preliminary) data from the vaccines is that you get a response equivalent to a more serious case.

Keegan99 said:

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Quote:

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The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus.

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No, they don't.

The lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

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Per your critique:

Study does not fit your political narrative?

Or

Do you have an informed reason this study is not reliable?

Please note: the government of Spain is token of the deep state does not count as an informed reason.

rojo_ag said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Quote:

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The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus.

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No, they don't.

The lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

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Per your critique:

Study does not fit your political narrative?

Or

Do you have an informed reason this study is not reliable?

Please note: the government of Spain is token of the deep state does not count as an informed reason.

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Take a look at the graph of new cases and deaths in Spain. Then tell me with a straight face what can explain that besides immunity to the virus

cone said:

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but no guarantee of durable immunity

so it sounds like we'll need to be cancelling social events and schools into perpetuity

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No. It just means that we need to continue to slow the spread through masks, testing, responsible social behaviors and good hygiene until we can get a vaccine produced in sufficient quantities to establish herd immunity.

Duncan Idaho said:

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cone said:

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but no guarantee of durable immunity

so it sounds like we'll need to be cancelling social events and schools into perpetuity

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No. It just means that we need to continue to slow the spread through masks, testing, responsible social behaviors and good hygiene until we can get a vaccine produced in sufficient quantities to establish herd immunity.

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so perpetuity

if mask wearing and social distancing is going to be required to save lives for the next several years (or more), then i think it's better to have that discussion now than later

i'm willing to change my behavior. i'll do my part.

So open it all up

PJYoung said:

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GAC06 said:

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rojo_ag said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Quote:

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The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus.

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No, they don't.

The lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

---

Per your critique:

Study does not fit your political narrative?

Or

Do you have an informed reason this study is not reliable?

Please note: the government of Spain is token of the deep state does not count as an informed reason.

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Take a look at the graph of new cases and deaths in Spain. Then tell me with a straight face what can explain that besides immunity to the virus

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*confused*

Immunity to the virus would show up in this study and it didn't.

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Antibodies didn't show up. Can anyone show me some confirmed cases of someone getting infected twice?

PJYoung said:

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GAC06 said:

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rojo_ag said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Quote:

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The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus.

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No, they don't.

The lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

---

Per your critique:

Study does not fit your political narrative?

Or

Do you have an informed reason this study is not reliable?

Please note: the government of Spain is token of the deep state does not count as an informed reason.

---

Take a look at the graph of new cases and deaths in Spain. Then tell me with a straight face what can explain that besides immunity to the virus

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*confused*

Immunity to the virus would show up in this study and it didn't.

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You're familiar with the T-cell response studies/theories right?

This test was for antibodies.

PJYoung said:

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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html

Quote:

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Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.

The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus. Herd immunity is achieved when enough of a population has become infected with a virus or bacteria -- or vaccinated against it -- to stop its circulation.

The European Center for Disease Control told CNN that Spain's research, on a nationwide representative sample of more than 61,000 participants, appears to be the largest study to date among a dozen serological studies on the coronavirus undertaken by European nations.
It adds to the findings of an antibody study involving 2,766 participants in Geneva, Switzerland, published in the Lancet on June 11.

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Quote:

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"In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable," said the Lancet's commentary authors, Isabella Eckerle, head of the Geneva Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases, and Benjamin Meyer, a virologist at the University of Geneva.

Doctors are uncertain whether having antibodies to the coronavirus means someone cannot be infected again. It's not clear how long or how well antibodies protect people from the virus.

Spain's peer-reviewed study began in April while the nation remained on a strict lockdown, and was conducted by leading government research and epidemiological agencies.

"The relatively low seroprevalence observed in the context of an intense epidemic in Spain might serve as a reference to other countries. At present, herd immunity is difficult to achieve without accepting the collateral damage of many deaths in the susceptible population and overburdening of health systems," the report reads.

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61k participants, largest peer reviewed study yet shows that Spain went from 5% infected in April to 5.2% infected now.

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I'm not arguing for the herd immunity approach, but it may be likely that t cells play a very important role in immunity, especially in mild cases, which would not be accounted for in this serosurvey.

GAC06 said:

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rojo_ag said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Quote:

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The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus.

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No, they don't.

The lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

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Per your critique:

Study does not fit your political narrative?

Or

Do you have an informed reason this study is not reliable?

Please note: the government of Spain is token of the deep state does not count as an informed reason.

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Take a look at the graph of new cases and deaths in Spain. Then tell me with a straight face what can explain that besides immunity to the virus

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Yes what you are describing is interesting and looking at IgG levels in the blood is likely not the best measure of immunity. Mucosal immunity (IgM) is likely a better measure and is likely while young and healthy people do well with this virus.

In addition I believe over time we will find some immune marker or dysfunction that allows severe infection to occur. The blood type studies are somewhat supportive of this. Thus far once it sweeps through a region it has not respiked suggesting that "herd immunity" may be achieved with a 20% or lower infection rate. Only time will tell though.

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/covid-19-public-immunity-significantly-higher-than-tests-suggest/

Recent research out of Sweden suggests T-cell immunity is significant. Around 30% of tested blood donors in May (albeit a small sample size due to difficulty in T-cell testing) had Covid-specific T-cells. A significant number of exposed individuals who remained asymptomatic also had T cells.

rojo_ag said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Quote:

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The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus.

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No, they don't.

The lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

---

Per your critique:

Study does not fit your political narrative?

Or

Do you have an informed reason this study is not reliable?

Please note: the government of Spain is token of the deep state does not count as an informed reason.

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Note that I did not say the study was not reliable. I stated that the lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

It is entirely possible that 5% of Spaniards have the particular antibodies that the study detected.

It is not possible that 95% remains susceptible. If 95% of the population of Spain was susceptible the current "case count" and mortality curve in Spain would be impossible.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Moxley said:

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https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/covid-19-public-immunity-significantly-higher-than-tests-suggest/

Recent research out of Sweden suggests T-cell immunity is significant. Around 30% of tested blood donors in May (albeit a small sample size due to difficulty in T-cell testing) had Covid-specific T-cells. A significant number of exposed individuals who remained asymptomatic also had T cells.

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Exciting data but it is a pre-print- I would wait for the peer review prior to linking it based on the significant number of pre-print studies that are later recalled due to poor technique.

Keegan99 said:

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rojo_ag said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Quote:

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The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus.

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No, they don't.

The lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

---

Per your critique:

Study does not fit your political narrative?

Or

Do you have an informed reason this study is not reliable?

Please note: the government of Spain is token of the deep state does not count as an informed reason.

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Note that I did not say the study was not reliable. I stated that the lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

It is entirely possible that 5% of Spaniards have the particular antibodies that the study detected.

It is not possible that 95% remains susceptible. If 95% of the population of Spain was susceptible the current "case count" and mortality curve in Spain would be impossible.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

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Why do you assume that the only reason case counts and deaths elsewhere are decreasing is herd immunity?

Couldn't it just be testing and tracing efforts to keep the R0 below 1 (which is much easier to do when you have fewer cases per day)?

dragmagpuff said:

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Keegan99 said:

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rojo_ag said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Quote:

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The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus.

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No, they don't.

The lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

---

Per your critique:

Study does not fit your political narrative?

Or

Do you have an informed reason this study is not reliable?

Please note: the government of Spain is token of the deep state does not count as an informed reason.

---

Note that I did not say the study was not reliable. I stated that the lack of antibodies is not equivalent to remaining susceptible to the virus.

It is entirely possible that 5% of Spaniards have the particular antibodies that the study detected.

It is not possible that 95% remains susceptible. If 95% of the population of Spain was susceptible the current "case count" and mortality curve in Spain would be impossible.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

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Why do you assume that the only reason case counts and deaths elsewhere are decreasing is herd immunity?

Couldn't it just be testing and tracing efforts to keep the R0 below 1 (which is much easier to do when you have fewer cases per day)?

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The random pop ups in South Korea, China, etc. Have spread very quickly - suggesting nothing close to herd immunity. They did a good job of test, trace isolate, and that's the only ceiling they've seen to the disease. Where the disease has slowed there has been no real evidence of herd immunity, only a combination of government, environment, and personal factors keeping transmission below 1 Rt. But that doesn't fit the narrative that literally everyone has had it and been asymptomatic and that cases will just magically disappear one day if we pretend it's not a problem.

Trying making arguments without relying on logical fallacies.

This is false. Sweden has not employed anything like the strategy you describe. Nor has most of Europe.


But since you're here, would you like to explain this, that you wrote on June 19th:

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Yeah, we might surpass the 140,000 at this rate, but I think we'll be on the higher end of the range (mid 130,000s). Certainly won't see our deaths continue to drop into July 4th.

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Deaths not only dropped, but they dropped by over 15%.

Why do you think you were wrong?

Keegan99 said:

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This is false. Sweden has not employed anything like the strategy you describe. Nor has most of Europe.


But since you're here, would you like to explain this, that you wrote on June 19th:

Quote:

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Yeah, we might surpass the 140,000 at this rate, but I think we'll be on the higher end of the range (mid 130,000s). Certainly won't see our deaths continue to drop into July 4th.

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Deaths not only dropped, but they dropped by over 15%.

Why do you think you were wrong?

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It's because he is full of crap, just like everyone else on this topic.

Positives and no longer ventilating with saturation levels below 88 is a hell of a difference. This thing threw us for a loop. Lots of people accidentally killed with early vents.

I feel like PJYoung and Keegan are the same person playing Dr Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. One only posts negative things and the other only posts positive stories.

Here's an article about the data written in mid May.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-idUSKBN22P1IK

The data in the study was collected in late April!

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The study, carried out by the Carlos III Health Institute and the National Statistics Institute, began on April 27. It tested some 60,000 people for the presence of antibodies generated to fight off the coronavirus.

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In other words, in no way does it reflect anything resembling the current reality in Spain.