Texas (Tues-Friday Stats)

4 Day Average of Daily Cases & the Daily Deaths that follow 3 WEEKS LATER & the (% Death/Cases)

May 19-22: 1,189 cases --> June 9-12: 26 deaths --> (2.2%)

May 26-29: 1,259 cases --> June 16-19: 39 deaths --> (3.1%)

June 2-5: 1,683 cases --> June 23-26: 37 deaths --> (2.2%)

June 9-12: 2,016 cases --> June 30-3: 43 deaths --> (2.1%)

June 16-19: 3,180 cases --> July 7-10: 90 deaths --> (2.8%)

June 23-26: 5,686 cases --> Projected July 14-17: 140 deaths, Range 119-176 (Avg. 2.48%, Range 2.1- 3.1%)

Jun 30-3: 7,630 cases --> Projected July 21-24: 189 deaths, Range 160-237 (Avg. 2.48%, Range 2.1-3.1%)

July 7-10: 9,889 cases --> Projected July 28-31: 245 deaths, Range 207-307 (Avg. 2.48%, Range 2.1-3.1%)

July 14-17: These Case Numbers Will Start to be affected by partial compliance with July 3rd Mask Mandate/Distancing. The degree to which they are flattened will depend on degree of compliance.

July 21-24: These Case Numbers Will Definitely be affected by partial compliance with Mask Mandate/Distancing. The degree to which they are flattened will depend on degree of compliance.

Death numbers won't likely peak or trend downward until end of July/early August at the earliest.

So when do bars re-open? Before or after Abbott loses in Court?

DFWTLR said:

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Curious what hospitalizations looked like, I know they have gone up a lot, but don't seem to be increasing as much as the cases over the past few weeks.

Also would have thought cases would have gone down since bars have closed, any idea on lag time of tests? Still hearing from friends in dallas over 10 days unless you do the rapid test.

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7/12/20 = 10,410
7/5/20 = 8,181
6/28/20 = 5,497
6/21/20 = 3,409
6/14/20 = 2,287
6/7/20 = 1,878
5/31/20 =1,684
5/24/20 =1,572
5/17/20 = 1,512
5/10/20 = 1,626

Hospitalization are often 10-14 days after symptoms.
Deaths are often 21 days out from onset.

Because incubation period is up to 14 days it can take a full 14 day to see the full effect any behavior change on the total number of cases. But you would hope to see some benefit (decrease in the rate of increase, making the slope less steep) in as early as a week.

The face mask ordinance which is only partially being adhered to went into affect last weekend (July 3rd). So hopefully we don't have as big of a jump in the number of cases this week as we would have without it. Based on the rate of rise in cases over the last few weeks we would be predicted to have at least 12,800 cases daily on average the next Tuesday-Friday. If number of cases is less than that then it may give us some insight into the effectiveness of the partially adhered to mask mandate.

AgE Doc said:

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DFWTLR said:

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Curious what hospitalizations looked like, I know they have gone up a lot, but don't seem to be increasing as much as the cases over the past few weeks.

Also would have thought cases would have gone down since bars have closed, any idea on lag time of tests? Still hearing from friends in dallas over 10 days unless you do the rapid test.

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7/12/20 = 10,410
7/5/20 = 8,181
6/28/20 = 5,497
6/21/20 = 3,409
6/14/20 = 2,287
6/7/20 = 1,878
5/31/20 =1,684
5/24/20 =1,572
5/17/20 = 1,512
5/10/20 = 1,626

Hospitalization are often 10-14 days after symptoms.
Deaths are often 21 days out from onset.

Because incubation period is up to 14 days it can take a full 14 day to see the full effect any behavior change on the total number of cases. But you would hope to see some benefit (decrease in the rate of increase, making the slope less steep) in as early as a week.

The face mask ordinance which is only partially being adhered to went into affect last weekend (July 3rd). So hopefully we don't have as big of a jump in the number of cases this week as we would have without it. Based on the rate of rise in cases over the last few weeks we would be predicted to have at least 12,800 cases daily on average the next Tuesday-Friday. If number of cases is less than that then it may give us some insight into the effectiveness of the partially adhered to mask mandate.

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Not sure why you say the facemask ordinance is 'partially adhered'. I have been to several stores, resteraunts (outside table) etc the last 3 week and cannot recall one person who was not wearing a mask.

DFWTLR said:

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AgE Doc said:

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DFWTLR said:

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Curious what hospitalizations looked like, I know they have gone up a lot, but don't seem to be increasing as much as the cases over the past few weeks.

Also would have thought cases would have gone down since bars have closed, any idea on lag time of tests? Still hearing from friends in dallas over 10 days unless you do the rapid test.

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7/12/20 = 10,410
7/5/20 = 8,181
6/28/20 = 5,497
6/21/20 = 3,409
6/14/20 = 2,287
6/7/20 = 1,878
5/31/20 =1,684
5/24/20 =1,572
5/17/20 = 1,512
5/10/20 = 1,626

Hospitalization are often 10-14 days after symptoms.
Deaths are often 21 days out from onset.

Because incubation period is up to 14 days it can take a full 14 day to see the full effect any behavior change on the total number of cases. But you would hope to see some benefit (decrease in the rate of increase, making the slope less steep) in as early as a week.

The face mask ordinance which is only partially being adhered to went into affect last weekend (July 3rd). So hopefully we don't have as big of a jump in the number of cases this week as we would have without it. Based on the rate of rise in cases over the last few weeks we would be predicted to have at least 12,800 cases daily on average the next Tuesday-Friday. If number of cases is less than that then it may give us some insight into the effectiveness of the partially adhered to mask mandate.

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Not sure why you say the facemask ordinance is 'partially adhered'. I have been to several stores, resteraunts (outside table) etc the last 3 week and cannot recall one person who was not wearing a mask.

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In more rural areas of central Texas there is much more push back. There are sheriffs in multiple counties who are refusing to enforce them. Are you in a suburb that has a more educated demographic? In the less educated areas we have plenty of churches who are using the loop hole to not require face masks when they are singing in church. They are doing the 6 foot spacing, but with singing you can aerosolize the virus and it can float in the air much longer.

I live in Dallas, have been out in Dallas, Richardson, Plano, Frisco, Flower Mound, Grapevine, etc on a daily basis and honestly cannot recall a time in the last 2 weeks seeing someone without a mask.

Quote:

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Not sure why you say the face mask ordinance is 'partially adhered'. I have been to several stores, restaurant (outside table) etc the last 3 week and cannot recall one person who was not wearing a mask.

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I've been to the grocery store several times, and one visit to a Buc-ees, since the mandate.The majority of customers were wearing them properly. However, I have seen some customers with no facial covering at all and quite a few with the mask below their noses. Unfortunately, we will have partial adherence. Either due to ignorance of proper face covering procedure or a purposeful lack of proper use.

It is encouraging to hear that in many areas of the state that adherence is high.

Around Waco & Hillsboro it has not been as high. Also I've seen tons of pictures of friends on Facebook who are at baseball and softball tournaments where its hard to see anyone in the photos wearing masks in big groups of people with many from different households not distanced.

Over the past two weeks I've driven from Los Angeles to Texas (Wichita Falls) and back - across four states - and was honestly shocked at the amount of masks being worn. I stopped at gas stations, fast food joints, grocery stores, and rest stops, in big cities and in the middle of no where, and I'd say there was 95% mask compliance no matter where I went, or who I saw. It was incredibly encouraging.

These past two weeks will stick with me forever. Driving cross-country and back during a pandemic is about as surreal as it gets. It's one thing to experience this whole, crazy thing from your home, on your couch, in your own city. But it's completely different to witness for yourself, in person, a huge swath of the country all come together and adapt like this. I stayed the night in Marfa, TX yesterday and that was probably when it hit me most. It's obviously a small town surrounded by miles and miles of nothingness, but the few people I did see were all wearing masks. Just something about that desolate setting, during this time, felt like a scene out of a post-apocalyptic movie. But in a weirdly encouraging way, knowing we're all in this together.

Anyway, I know this all anecdotal, but if what I witnessed these past two weeks is any indication, with the protests and July 4th behind us, and mask wearing seemingly becoming more and more ubiquitous, I think and hope that we'll start to see the numbers drop quite a bit in the not-too-distant future.

TCTTS said:

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Over the past two weeks I've driven from Los Angeles to Texas (Wichita Falls) and back - across four states - and was honestly shocked at the amount of masks being worn. I stopped at gas stations, fast food joints, grocery stores, and rest stops, in big cities and in the middle of no where, and I'd say there was 95% mask compliance no matter where I went, or who I saw. It was incredibly encouraging.

These past two weeks will stick with me forever. Driving cross-country and back during a pandemic is about as surreal as it gets. It's one thing to experience this whole, crazy thing from your home, on your couch, in your own city. But it's completely different to witness for yourself, in person, a huge swath of the country all come together and adapt like this. I stayed the night in Marfa, TX yesterday and that was probably when it hit me most. It's obviously a small town surrounded by miles and miles of nothingness, but the few people I did see were all wearing masks. Just something about that desolate setting, during this time, felt like a scene out of a post-apocalyptic movie. But in a weirdly encouraging way, knowing we're all in this together.

Anyway, I know this all anecdotal, but if what I witnessed these past two weeks is any indication, with the protests and July 4th behind us, and mask wearing seemingly becoming more and more ubiquitous, I think and hope that we'll start to see the numbers drop quite a bit in the not-too-distant future.

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Any coming together of anything in 2020 is reason to be amazed.

I live in Houston and just about everyone I see is wearing a mask.

RandyAg98 said:

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Everywhere I have been, outside of the gym and outdoors of course, I have not seen one person NOT wearing a mask in McKinney.

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Ahh. The elusive double negative.
Well played. I stand corrected.