88planoAg said:

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AgE Doc said:

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COVID-19: Can Masks Protect Us in Everyday Setting? When And Where Should They Be Worn? -- University of Cambridge

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requires registration and login to view

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Sorry about that.
It is a great site.
I think it is free.
It is like Youtube for doctors.

So far on this Tuesday, Texas has only reported 8 deaths.

Looks like it's going to be way, way below the 119-176 you predicted. Good news!

Up to 99 now. Looks like you were closer than I had hoped!


(It'a amazing how similar the Florida and Texas and California numbers look.)

AgE Doc said:

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Texas (Tues-Friday Stats)

4 Day Average of Daily Cases & the Daily Deaths that follow 3 WEEKS LATER & the (% Death/Cases)

May 19-22: 1,189 cases --> June 9-12: 26 deaths --> (2.2%)

May 26-29: 1,259 cases --> June 16-19: 39 deaths --> (3.1%)

June 2-5: 1,683 cases --> June 23-26: 37 deaths --> (2.2%)

June 9-12: 2,016 cases --> June 30-3: 43 deaths --> (2.1%)

June 16-19: 3,180 cases --> July 7-10: 90 deaths --> (2.8%)

June 23-26: 5,686 cases --> Projected July 14-17: 140 deaths, Range 119-176 (Avg. 2.48%, Range 2.1- 3.1%)

Jun 30-3: 7,630 cases --> Projected July 21-24: 189 deaths, Range 160-237 (Avg. 2.48%, Range 2.1-3.1%)

July 7-10: 9,889 cases --> Projected July 28-31: 245 deaths, Range 207-307 (Avg. 2.48%, Range 2.1-3.1%)

July 14-17: These Case Numbers Will Start to be affected by partial compliance with July 3rd Mask Mandate/Distancing. The degree to which they are flattened will depend on degree of compliance.

July 21-24: These Case Numbers Will Definitely be affected by partial compliance with Mask Mandate/Distancing. The degree to which they are flattened will depend on degree of compliance.

Death numbers won't likely peak or trend downward until end of July/early August at the earliest.

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July 7-10 deaths went (Tues 60, Wed 98, Thur 105, Fri 95). Through out the spring, on average, Tuesdays have been the day of the week with the third lowest deaths reported, with Sundays and Mondays being lower.

This Tuesday's official total of reported deaths of 87 (7/14/2020) is a 45% increase over last Tuesday. If the next 3 days are also 45% over their totals from a week ago then you would expect 142, 152 & 138 with a total of 519 over that four day stretch. The average per day would 130 deaths per day. That would be a little better than predicted, but in using the predicted range of of percent deaths for the number of cases diagnosed three weeks earlier it would still be in that 119-176 range.

That said rate of transmission continues to slow since city and state mask mandates went into affect and the rate of increase in hospital admissions is also slowing down.

Link to the State website.

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That said rate of transmission continues to slow since city and state mask mandates went into affect and the rate of increase in hospital admissions is also slowing down.

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I'm not anti-mask, but that, to me, just seems too simplistic and heavy-handed. Forgive me for saying so. When did it start to slow in California, where there has been a mask mandate and widespread mask use since June?

Again, I'm NOT saying masks don't matter. I just think that what causes a spike in one region or another is multi-factorial and can't be so simply causally assigned.

fat girlfriend said:

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That said rate of transmission continues to slow since city and state mask mandates went into affect and the rate of increase in hospital admissions is also slowing down.

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I'm not anti-mask, but that, to me, just seems too simplistic and heavy-handed. Forgive me for saying so. When did it start to slow in California, where there has been a mask mandate and widespread mask use since June?

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The state of California mandated mask use June 18th about the same time that San Antonio (June 17th), Austin (June 23rd), Houston (June 23rd) and Dallas (June 19th).

Exposed individuals who become infected have an incubation period of 3 to 14 days, and so to get a full feel for mask mandate you would look at numbers that are at least 10-14 days out from it going into affect. So for California that would be around the end of June/early July. I'm not going to do all of the calculations for the exact percent increase from week to week before the end of June and since the end of June, but to me looking at that graph it appears that the rate of increase has slowed and they are also like Texas starting to flatten out their daily cases.


Of course hospitalization often lags diagnosis at symptom onset by a week or more and death typically lags around three weeks after cases. This means like with Texas, California will see increased deaths over the next couple of weeks as well before leveling off and then coming back down as the volume of daily new cases goes down with a decreased transmission rate.

fightingfarmer09 said:

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fat girlfriend said:

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That said rate of transmission continues to slow since city and state mask mandates went into affect and the rate of increase in hospital admissions is also slowing down.

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I'm not anti-mask, but that, to me, just seems too simplistic and heavy-handed. Forgive me for saying so. When did it start to slow in California, where there has been a mask mandate and widespread mask use since June?

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California has had massive mask mandates and large scale corporate shutdowns through all of this.

Let's get honest. Middle of June until the end of June we had one driving factor. Protests. We had the Mayor of Houston have 60k folks for a funeral then call the GOP convention a potential super spreader event.

Medical professional should be screaming and condemning these protests on every news agency on the planet if they were truly concerned.

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Umm. Thats just simply not true.

How many people actually protested in the country..... Not many considering the number of cases.

In Central Texas 60% of the hospitalizations are coming from hispanic families while Hispanics are just over 30% of the population. Over 65% of hospitalizations at my wife's hospital system come from low income families. So one could assume that people living in multi-generational homes with higher number of people and people who work jobs that they can't do from home would be the driving cause.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/racial-ethnic-minorities.html

I was wrong.

cityagboy said:

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fightingfarmer09 said:

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fat girlfriend said:

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Quote:

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That said rate of transmission continues to slow since city and state mask mandates went into affect and the rate of increase in hospital admissions is also slowing down.

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I'm not anti-mask, but that, to me, just seems too simplistic and heavy-handed. Forgive me for saying so. When did it start to slow in California, where there has been a mask mandate and widespread mask use since June?

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California has had massive mask mandates and large scale corporate shutdowns through all of this.

Let's get honest. Middle of June until the end of June we had one driving factor. Protests. We had the Mayor of Houston have 60k folks for a funeral then call the GOP convention a potential super spreader event.

Medical professional should be screaming and condemning these protests on every news agency on the planet if they were truly concerned.

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Umm. Thats just simply not true.

How many people actually protested in the country..... Not many considering the number of cases.

In Central Texas 60% of the hospitalizations are coming from hispanic families while Hispanics are just over 30% of the population. Over 65% of hospitalizations at my wife's hospital system come from low income families. So one could assume that people living in multi-generational homes with higher number of people and people who work jobs that they can't do from home would be the driving cause.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/racial-ethnic-minorities.html

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How about both Probably could be true?

jpb1999 said:

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cityagboy said:

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fightingfarmer09 said:

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fat girlfriend said:

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Quote:

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That said rate of transmission continues to slow since city and state mask mandates went into affect and the rate of increase in hospital admissions is also slowing down.

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I'm not anti-mask, but that, to me, just seems too simplistic and heavy-handed. Forgive me for saying so. When did it start to slow in California, where there has been a mask mandate and widespread mask use since June?

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California has had massive mask mandates and large scale corporate shutdowns through all of this.

Let's get honest. Middle of June until the end of June we had one driving factor. Protests. We had the Mayor of Houston have 60k folks for a funeral then call the GOP convention a potential super spreader event.

Medical professional should be screaming and condemning these protests on every news agency on the planet if they were truly concerned.

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Umm. Thats just simply not true.

How many people actually protested in the country..... Not many considering the number of cases.

In Central Texas 60% of the hospitalizations are coming from hispanic families while Hispanics are just over 30% of the population. Over 65% of hospitalizations at my wife's hospital system come from low income families. So one could assume that people living in multi-generational homes with higher number of people and people who work jobs that they can't do from home would be the driving cause.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/racial-ethnic-minorities.html

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How about both Probably could be true?

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I am not saying that protests didn't cause any cases. They did.

But looking at racial demographics, economic demographics and total case/ hospitalization numbers it appears that protests were not the main cause. That's what I said and responded to.

Nm